ELECTRICITY STATEMENT OF OPPORTUNITIES For the National Electricity Market

Transcription

1 ELECTRICITY STATEMENT OF OPPORTUNITIES For the National Electricity Market EXECUTIVE BRIEFING 2010

2 Preface I am pleased to introduce AEMO s 2010 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO), which presents the outlook for Australia s National Electricity Market (NEM) supply capacity for years and demand for years The supply-demand outlook reflects the extent of growth, and opportunities for growth, in generation and demand-side investment. This year, for the first time, AEMO has separated the 10-year supply-demand outlook into two documents. While the ESOO will cover years 3-10 and focus on investment matters, a separate document titled Power System Adequacy (PSA) A Two Year Outlook will publish the operational issues and supply-demand outlook for summers 2010/11 and 2011/12. AEMO has released the ESOO and PSA together. The ESOO is one of a collection of AEMO planning publications that provides comprehensive information about energy supply and investment, demand, and network planning. AEMO s other annual planning documents are the South Australian Supply and Demand Outlook, the Victorian Annual Planning Report and Update, the National Transmission Network Development Plan (NTNDP), and the Gas Statement of Opportunities. AEMO expects that climate change policies will, over time, change the way in which Australia produces and consumes electricity. This is likely to take place through a shift from the current reliance on coal as a source of generation to less carbon-intensive fuel sources. AEMO is also preparing for possible changes to consumption patterns resulting from technological developments, where smart grids, smart meters and electric vehicles may combine to change the demand landscape. Changes to the nature of generation supply and consumption will, in turn, impact the requirements for and utilisation of transmission and distribution networks. AEMO s first NTNDP, to be released in December 2010, will consider the impact of climate change policies as part of its analysis of the efficient development of the national transmission network over a 20-year horizon. While the ESOO has considered the impact of a potential Australian carbon policy on the NEM in its demand forecasts, and on investment in a new chapter (Chapter 2, Emerging Investment Trends), the impact of these policies will be understood more clearly following greater certainty about policy direction. The 2010 ESOO has not considered the potential impact on the NEM of a resource rent tax, or more generally any policy statements or positions since June In this time of change, I am pleased that AEMO can provide valuable information to assist the energy sector with understanding its operating environment and adapting so that, together, we can continue to meet Australia s energy needs. Matt Zema Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer AEMO 2010 i Preface

3 Contents Executive Briefing Electricity Statement of Opportunities... 2 Investment outlook in Queensland... 6 Investment outlook in New South Wales... 9 Investment outlook in Victoria Investment outlook in South Australia Investment outlook in Tasmania AEMO Contents

4 Executive Briefing 2010 Electricity Statement of Opportunities The National Electricity Market s investment environment The 2010 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) aims to provide important information about generation investment opportunities in Australia s National Electricity Market (NEM). By presenting the outlook for supply and demand in each region and an overview of the investment environment, the ESOO indicates regional opportunities for generation and demand-side investment. The ESOO provides energy and maximum demand forecasts for each region for the next ten years and updated NEM generation capacities, as a key input into the supply-demand outlook. This information sits within a broader discussion about investment trends, which emphasises the expected impact on both investment and consumption in the NEM of climate change policies, emerging technologies, and the regulatory environment. The expected increase in gas-fired generation resulting from climate change policies is also likely to place extra pressure on Australia s gas reserves and production facilities. The 2010 ESOO includes a new chapter on fuel supply, focusing on the size and location of coal and gas reserves relevant to NEM generation. This Executive Briefing provides an overview of the supply-demand outlook and generation investment trends in each region, based on information from generation plant owners and proponents of new projects. The 2010 Electricity Statement of Opportunities supply-demand outlook The supply-demand outlook has traditionally presented a long-term assessment over a 10-year outlook period. In recognition of the differing market signals and data confidence within this timeframe, AEMO has decided to separate the 10-year adequacy assessment into two documents: The Power System Adequacy (PSA) A Two Year Outlook focuses on supply adequacy and market intervention triggers in the first two years. The ESOO focuses on aspects of supply adequacy that may influence investment decisions in years three to ten. Supply-demand results The supply-demand outlook highlights the first year there is a projected generation shortfall in each region, indicating a requirement for generation and demand-side investment. AEMO arrives at these projected shortfalls by considering a number of factors, including demand projections, generation capacities, demand-side participation, and network capabilities. AEMO also considers each region s minimum reserve level (MRL) when calculating the supplydemand outlook and signalling investment opportunities. MRLs are the operational form of the Reliability Standard, which the Australian Energy Market Commission s Reliability Panel sets for the NEM. AEMO uses MRLs to determine when reserves within a region fall below a point at which the Reliability Standard can be met with confidence. This is known as a low reserve condition (LRC) point. MRLs are reviewed periodically to take account of new investments and changes to the power system. AEMO has recently completed such a review and new MRLs were published in June AEMO Executive Briefing

5 Table 1 provides an overview of the 2010 ESOO s supply-demand outlook results. Based on different sets of assumptions involving medium, low, and high economic growth, the overview shows that increasing rates of economic growth tend to either bring the regional s forward in time, or increase the reserve deficit experienced in a particular year. An represents a shortfall against the regional MRL, suggesting an increased likelihood of AEMO s intervention to maintain power system reliability. It does not imply that load shedding will occur. Table 1 Supply-demand outlook overview, 2012/ /20 Region Low growth Medium growth High growth Queensland 2015/ / / New South Wales 2017/ / / Victoria 2017/ / / South Australia 2017/ / /13 85 Tasmania (summer) >2019/20 N/A >2019/20 N/A >2019/20 N/A Tasmania (winter) >2020 N/A >2020 N/A >2020 N/A Table 1 indicates that, with medium economic growth, the first region that may require new investment is Queensland in 2013/14. This represents a change of one year from the published in last year s ESOO. There are two important factors contributing to this result: The Queensland MRL has increased. Swanbank B Power Station (480 MW) is being mothballed 1 over the next two years. The for Victoria and South Australia occurs later than published in last year s ESOO, primarily due to changes in the MRLs and lower demands in South Australia. Changes in the other regions are mainly due to the new MRLs and demand forecast revisions. ESOO energy and maximum demand forecasts The ESOO presents energy and maximum demand forecasts for the next 10 years. These forecasts are based on a number of assumptions about the economy and government policy, including climate change policies. Developed prior to the Australian Government s delay of the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS), the ESOO s current economic forecasts incorporate the effects of a carbon price. The impact on the forecasts may be more pronounced in the earlier years, assuming some form of carbon pricing is ultimately introduced. The forecasts also do not consider the impact of a resource-based tax. The pattern of projected energy growth is consistent with strong recent and projected Australian economic growth, with the Australian economy expected to be driven in the medium term by strong export volumes and prices for resources, growth in the construction sector, and private consumption. The forecasts also show that this will result in high energy growth in regions with strong mining sectors, such as Queensland. 1 AEMO, Electricity Statement of Opportunities, 2010, p 98. AEMO Executive Briefing

6 Figure 1 presents the average annual growth rates of projected energy consumption and maximum demand (based on a medium economic growth forecast) over the next 10 years. The maximum demand used to project average annual growth rates is the level of demand that is statistically likely to be exceeded 1 in every 10 years (a 10% probability of exceedence). Figure 1 Average annual growth rates in energy consumption and maximum demand until 2019/20 5.0% AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% QLD NSW VIC SA TAS NEM Energy consumption 3.9% 1.8% 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% 2.1% Summer maximum demand 4.1% 2.6% 2.0% 1.4% 1.0% 2.6% Winter maximum demand 4.2% 2.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.0% 2.5% AEMO Executive Briefing

7 Figure 2 shows the change in average annual growth rates since the publication of the 2009 ESOO. Figure 2 The change in average annual growth rates since the 2009 ESOO 1.5% CHANGE IN AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% QLD NSW VIC SA TAS NEM Energy consumption 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% Summer maximum demand 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.2% Winter maximum demand 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5% The ESOO energy and maximum demand forecasts point to minor variations in average annual growth rate projections for New South Wales and Victoria. Moderate changes in average annual growth rate projections were observed for Queensland, South Australia, and Tasmania. In Queensland, increased growth rates are largely due to a projected increase in demand in the Surat Basin area as a result of coal seam gas developments, gas compressor loads, and coal mining developments and their supporting infrastructure and services. In New South Wales, the difference between the 2009 and 2010 energy projections is primarily due to a less severe economic slowdown than previously expected, but is also due to modelling assumption changes, and semi-scheduled and non-scheduled generation capacity revisions. In Victoria, the faster recovery from the economic downturn has resulted in higher economic growth rates driving higher energy consumption. The higher outcomes in the earlier years reflect lower than previously forecast energy policy impacts on demand, and particularly policies relating to carbon emission reductions. In South Australia, the faster economic recovery is tempered by lower population growth rates. Energy policy impacts are more pronounced in the later years (after 2013) when compared to the 2009 South Australian Annual Planning Review, resulting in significantly lower economic growth and, consequently, lower energy growth. In Tasmania, the overall growth rate is higher than forecast by the 2009 ESOO. There is a temporary reduction in consumption in the years , which can be attributed to energy policy impacts on economic growth. The growth overall is due to higher growth in residential, commercial, and industrial loads, as well as considerations involving a significant new direct connect customer in AEMO Executive Briefing

8 Investment outlook in Queensland Investment opportunities The 2010 supply-demand outlook 2 indicates that, with medium economic growth, Queensland reaches its in 2013/14. To delay this shortfall until the following year, Queensland will require an additional 726 MW of local capacity in the form of new generation or demand-side investment. Figure 3 Queensland summer supply-demand outlook, 2012/ /20 17,000 16,000 15,000 14,000 CAPACITY (MW) 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6, / / / / / / / /20 Allocated Installed Capacity Additional Capacity Required Capacity for Reliability The 2009 ESOO showed the Queensland for medium growth occurring in 2014/15, one year later than the new projection. The earlier this year is primarily due to: an increase in the Queensland MRL a decrease in forecast available capacity, resulting particularly from the progressive retirement of Swanbank B by 2012/13, and increased demand in the outlook period. 2 See Chapter 7 of the 2010 ESOO for information about interpreting the supply-demand outlook charts. AEMO Executive Briefing

9 Trends in generation investment Figure 4 identifies regional generation projects as publicly announced (an early stage of development), advanced (an intermediate stage of development), or committed (considered to be proceeding) 3. While new generation in Queensland is expected across a range of fuel types, there is strong representation from gas-fired generation proponents relative to other fuel types. Figure 4 New generation in Queensland 2,500 2,000 1,500 CAPACITY (MW) 1, Black coal Coal seam gas Gas Hydro Wind Publicly announced Advanced Committed Significant generation developments in Queensland include seven gas-fired power stations, which together comprise 2,753 MW of capacity, of which the 160 MW Rio Tinto Yarwun plant and the 144 MW QGC Condamine plant are committed, and are expected to be commissioned before the summer of 2010/11. No commissioning dates have been set for Origin Energy s 1,000 MW Spring Gully Power Station and Bow Energy s 30 MW Blackwater Power Station, which are both advanced proposals. Five wind farms totalling 354 MW in capacity have been publicly announced. Stanwell Corporation is proposing the 334 MW Wandoan integrated black coal gasification combined-cycle plant and the 35 MW Burdekin Falls hydroelectric projects, both classed as publicly announced. 3 See Chapter 5, Section 5.3.1, of the ESOO for more information about the way AEMO classifies generation projects. AEMO Executive Briefing

10 Assessing low and high growth assumptions in Queensland Table 2 shows the s and reserve deficits for the Queensland region, forecast to occur under low, medium, and high economic growth. Table 2 Queensland supply-demand outlook summary, 2012/ /20 Region Low growth Medium growth High growth Queensland 2015/ / / The Queensland moves forward by one year to 2013/14 with high economic growth, with a substantial deficit of 716 MW. Low economic growth results in the being delayed by one year until 2015/16. AEMO Executive Briefing

11 Investment outlook in New South Wales Investment opportunities The 2010 supply-demand outlook indicates that, with medium economic growth, New South Wales reaches its in 2016/17. To delay this shortfall until the following year, New South Wales will require an additional 27 MW of local capacity in the form of new generation or demand-side investment. Figure 5 New South Wales summer supply-demand outlook, 2012/ /20 18,000 17,000 16,000 15,000 CAPACITY (MW) 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8, / / / / / / / /20 Allocated Installed Capacity Additional Capacity Required Capacity for Reliability The 2009 ESOO showed the New South Wales medium growth occurring in 2015/16, one year earlier than the new projection. This is primarily due to a decrease in the New South Wales MRL, a 572 MW increase in existing generation capacity, and the addition of new local generation, offset by the higher demand forecasts. Trends in generation investment Figure 6 identifies regional generation projects as publicly announced (an early stage of development), advanced (an intermediate stage of development), or committed (considered to be proceeding) 4. It does not reflect any increases in generation capacity arising from upgrades to existing plant. 4 See Chapter 5, Section 5.3.1, of the ESOO for more information about the way AEMO classifies generation projects. AEMO Executive Briefing

12 There is a substantial number of publicly announced gas-fired, wind, and black coal-fired generation proposals, but only a small proportion are classified as being advanced. Figure 6 New generation in New South Wales 5,000 4,500 4,000 CAPACITY (MW) 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Black coal or gas Gas Wind Publicly announced Advanced Committed In New South Wales, the 4,700 MW of black coal or gas-fired generation comprises three publicly announced proposals, which include the 2,000 MW Mount Piper 3 and 4 project, the 2,000 MW Bayswater B project, and the 700 MW Munmorah Rehabilitation project (all of which are yet to have decisions made as to the intended fuel sources). Commissioning dates have not been announced. There are a total of 11 proposed gas-fired power stations representing 3,565 MW of capacity. Of those, only AGL Energy s 360 MW Leaf s Gully project is at an advanced stage of development, and no commissioning date has been set. Twelve wind farm projects totalling 2,645 MW of capacity have been proposed in New South Wales, with Acciona Energy s 46 MW Gunning and Infigen s 42 MW Woodlawn wind farms both advanced proposals, and expected to be commissioned in the second quarter of Assessing low and high growth assumptions in New South Wales Table 3 shows the s and reserve deficits for the New South Wales region, forecast to occur under low, medium, and high economic growth. Table 3 New South Wales supply-demand outlook summary, 2012/ /20 Region Low growth Medium growth High growth New South Wales 2017/ / / There is no change in the for New South Wales with high economic growth, but there is a significant increase in the reserve deficit projected for that year. Low economic growth results in the being delayed by a single year until 2017/18. AEMO Executive Briefing

13 Investment outlook in Victoria Investment opportunities The 2010 supply-demand outlook indicates that, with medium economic growth, Victoria reaches its in 2015/16. To delay this shortfall until the following year, Victoria will require an additional 249 MW of capacity in the form of new generation or demand-side investment. This additional capacity can be installed in either Victoria or South Australia, because reserves can be shared between the regions. Additional capacity is available to Victoria via the interconnectors with New South Wales and Tasmania. This available interconnector capacity is not shown as an additional margin in Figure 7 and is exhausted after 2014/15. Figure 7 Victorian summer supply-demand outlook, 2012/ /20 14,000 13,000 12,000 CAPACITY (MW) 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6, / / / / / / / /20 Allocated Installed Capacity Additional Capacity Required Capacity for Reliability The 2009 ESOO considered Victoria and South Australia as a single region due to the combined structure of their MRL requirements. On this basis, the 2009 ESOO projected a combined of 2013/14, two years earlier than the new projection for Victoria. The change is primarily due to: the calculation of separate, and overall lower MRLs for Victoria and South Australia changes in planned generation outages in Victoria, and revised demand forecasts in both Victoria and South Australia. AEMO Executive Briefing

14 Trends in generation investment Figure 8 identifies regional generation projects as publicly announced (an early stage of development), advanced (an intermediate stage of development), or committed (considered to be proceeding) 5. A significant amount of wind and gas-fired generation has been proposed in Victoria, with a number of projects at an advanced or committed stage of development. In contrast, only one brown coalfired plant has been proposed. Five gas-fired power stations with a total capacity of 3,180 MW have been proposed in Victoria. Origin Energy s 570 MW Mortlake Stage 1 project is the only committed project and is expected to commence commissioning in the fourth quarter of The proposed 450 MW Mortlake Stage 2 project is at an advanced stage of development, but is yet to announce a commissioning date. The HRL Developments integrated brown coal gasification combined-cycle demonstration project, with a proposed capacity of 550 MW, is the only proposed brown coal-fired plant. Thirty-two wind farms totalling 3,652 MW have been proposed in Victoria. The 67 MW Oaklands Hill project is committed while the AGL-operated 365 MW Macarthur Wind Farm is at an advanced stage of development. Oaklands Hill Wind Farm is expected to be commissioned in the third quarter of 2011 while Macarthur Wind Farm is expected to be commissioned in the second quarter of Figure 8 New generation in Victoria 4,000 3,500 3,000 CAPACITY (MW) 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Brown coal Gas Wind Publicly announced Advanced Committed See Chapter 5, Section 5.3.1, of the ESOO for more information about the way AEMO classifies generation projects. AEMO Executive Briefing

15 Assessing low and high growth assumptions in Victoria Table 4 shows the s and reserve deficits for the Victorian region, forecast to occur under low, medium, and high economic growth. Table 4 Victorian supply-demand outlook summary, 2012/ /20 Region Low growth Medium growth High growth deficit(mw) deficit(mw) Victoria 2017/ / / The Victorian moves forward by one year to 2014/15 with high economic growth. Low economic growth delays the by two years to 2017/18. AEMO Executive Briefing

16 Investment outlook in South Australia Investment opportunities The 2010 supply-demand outlook indicates that, with medium economic growth, South Australia reaches its in 2015/16. To delay this shortfall until the following year, South Australia will require an additional 50 MW of capacity in the form of new generation or demand-side investment. South Australia and Victoria are able to share reserves and their MRLs are optimised to extend the adequacy of supply. This means that Victoria and South Australia will generally reach their LRC points in the same year, which both outlooks demonstrate. The ability to share reserves with Victoria means that additional capacity requirements can be met by investments in either South Australia or Victoria. Figure 9 South Australian summer supply-demand outlook, 2012/ /20 4,000 3,800 3,600 3,400 CAPACITY (MW) 3,200 3,000 2,800 2,600 2,400 2,200 2, / / / / / / / /20 Allocated Installed Capacity Additional Capacity Required Capacity for Reliability The impacts on the South Australian are similar to Victoria s, as the ability of the two regions to share reserves, albeit with some trade-offs, means that factors affecting one region will consequently affect the other. As with the Victorian region, the change is primarily due to: the calculation of separate, and overall lower MRLs for Victoria and South Australia changes in planned outages to generation in Victoria, and revised demand forecasts in both Victoria and South Australia. AEMO Executive Briefing

17 Trends in generation investment Figure 10 identifies regional generation projects as publicly announced (an early stage of development), advanced (an intermediate stage of development), or committed (considered to be proceeding) 6. South Australia has a large amount of publicly announced wind generation, and a number of publicly announced gas-fired, coal-fired, and geothermal generation projects. Relative to other fuel-types, the region also has a considerable amount of committed wind generation. Figure 10 New generation in South Australia 2,500 2,000 CAPACITY (MW) 1,500 1, Diesel Gas Black coal Geothermal Wind Publicly announced Advanced Committed South Australia has 20 proposed wind farms totalling 2,309 MW in capacity. Committed wind projects include the: 111 MW Roaring 40s Waterloo Wind Farm to be commissioned in the third quarter of MW Infigen Lake Bonney Stage 3 Wind Farm, with a commissioning date in the third quarter of 2010, and 132 MW AGL Hallett (North Brown Hill) and 53 MW Hallett (The Bluff) Wind Farms, with commissioning dates in the second and the fourth quarter of 2011, respectively. The 206 MW TrustPower Snowtown Stage 2 Wind Farm is advanced and is expected to be commissioned in See Chapter 5, Section 5.3.1, of the ESOO for more information about the way AEMO classifies generation projects. AEMO Executive Briefing

18 South Australia has five proposed gas-fired power stations totalling 871 MW in capacity. The committed projects include the: 23 MW TRUenergy Hallett 2 and 3 project, and 23 MW International Power Port Lincoln 3 project. The Hallett 2 and 3 project is expected to be commissioned in the first quarter of 2011, while International Power is yet to announce a commissioning date for Port Lincoln 3. Origin Energy s 125 MW Quarantine 6 project is advanced, but no commissioning date has been announced. Altona Energy s 570 MW Arckaringa integrated black-coal gasification combined-cycle project is the only proposal of its type in South Australia. Similarly, only one geothermal project has been proposed, which is Geodynamics 550 MW Innaminka plant. Two diesel plants, the Infratil Energyoperated Stanvac A and B projects, comprise 58 MW of committed capacity and are expected to be commissioned in the fourth quarter of Assessing low and high growth assumptions in South Australia Table 5 shows the s and reserve deficits for the South Australian region, forecast to occur under low, medium, and high economic growth. Table 5 South Australian supply-demand outlook summary, 2012/ /20 Region Low growth Medium growth High growth South Australia 2017/ / /13 85 The South Australian moves forward by three years to 2012/13 with high economic growth. Low economic growth results in the being delayed by two years until 2017/18. Because reserves can be shared with Victoria, investment in either region can address shortfalls in the other region, albeit with some trade-offs. For example, 2 MW in South Australia may offset approximately 3 MW in Victoria and vice versa. See the AEMO website for more information about the sharing factors AEMO Executive Briefing

19 Investment outlook in Tasmania Investment opportunities The 2010 supply-demand outlook indicates that, with medium economic growth, Tasmania does not reach an during the outlook period. The 2009 ESOO indicated the same result. This remains the case for both summer and winter. Tasmanian demand peaks in winter, although Tasmanian generation is also heavily utilised in summer for export to Victoria. This means that the reserve margins in summer can be lower than in winter. As a result, both summer and winter outlooks are provided. Figure 11 Tasmanian summer supply-demand outlook, 2012/ /20 2,800 2,600 2,400 CAPACITY (MW) 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, / / / / / / / /20 Allocated Installed Capacity Additional Capacity Required Capacity for Reliability AEMO Executive Briefing

20 Figure 12 Tasmanian winter supply-demand outlook, ,800 2,600 2,400 CAPACITY (MW) 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, Allocated Installed Capacity Additional Capacity Required Capacity for Reliability Trends in generation investment Figure 13 identifies regional generation projects as publicly announced (an early stage of development), advanced (an intermediate stage of development), or committed (considered to be proceeding) 8. Tasmanian generation developments come exclusively from renewable energy proponents. 8 See Chapter 5, Section 5.3.1, of the ESOO for more information about the way AEMO classifies generation projects. AEMO Executive Briefing

21 Figure 13 New generation in Tasmania CAPACITY (MW) Biomass Wind Publicly announced Advanced Committed 0 0 Tasmania has 568 MW of proposed wind farm capacity, comprising the Roaring 40 s 168 MW Musselroe Wind Farm (an advanced project, expected to be commissioned in 2013), and Eureka s 400 MW White Rocks Wind Farm. The 180 MW Gunns biomass pulp mill is an advanced project and is also expected to be commissioned in Assessing low and high growth assumptions in Tasmania Table 6 shows the s and reserve deficits for the Tasmanian region, forecast to occur under low, medium, and high economic growth. Table 6 Tasmanian supply-demand outlook summary, 2012/ /20 Region Low growth Medium growth High growth Deficit (MW) Tasmania (summer) >2019/20 N/A >2019/20 N/A >2019/20 N/A Tasmania (winter) >2020 N/A >2020 N/A >2020 N/A There is no Tasmanian prior to 2019/20 (in summer) and 2020 (in winter) with either high or low economic growth. This outcome can be affected by drought conditions and is monitored by the AEMO Medium term Projected Assessment of System Adequacy and the Energy Adequacy Assessment Projections AEMO Executive Briefing

22 Disclaimer This publication has been prepared by the Australian Energy Market Operator Limited (AEMO) using information available at 20 May 2010, unless otherwise specified. AEMO must publish the Electricity Statement of Opportunities in order to comply with Clause (q) of the Rules. The purpose of publication is to provide technical and market data and information regarding opportunities in the National Electricity Market (NEM). Some information available after 20 May 2010 might have been included in this publication where it has been practicable to do so. Information in this publication does not amount to a recommendation in respect of any possible investment and does not purport to contain all of the information that a prospective investor or participant or potential participant in the NEM might require. The information contained in this publication might not be appropriate for all persons and it is not possible for AEMO to have regard to the investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs of each person who reads or uses this publication. The information contained in this publication may contain errors or omissions, or might not prove to be correct. In all cases, anyone proposing to rely on or use the information in this publication should independently verify and check the accuracy, completeness, reliability, and suitability of that information (including information and reports provided by third parties) and should obtain independent and specific advice from appropriate experts. Accordingly, to the maximum extent permitted by law, neither AEMO, nor any of AEMO s advisers, consultants or other contributors to this publication (or their respective associated companies, businesses, partners, directors, officers or employees): a) make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the currency, accuracy, reliability or completeness of this publication and the information contained in it; and b) shall have any liability (whether arising from negligence, negligent misstatement, or otherwise) for any statements, opinions, information or matter (expressed or implied) arising out of, contained in or derived from, or for any omissions from, the information in this publication, or in respect of a person s use of the information (including any reliance on its currency, accuracy, reliability or completeness) contained in this publication. Copyright Notice AEMO is the owner of the copyright and all other intellectual property rights in this publication. All rights are reserved. This publication must not be re-sold without AEMO s prior written permission. All material is subject to copyright under the Copyright Act 1968 (Cth) and permission to copy it, or any parts of it, must be obtained in writing from AEMO. Acknowledgment AEMO acknowledges the support, co-operation and contribution of all participants in providing the data and information used in this ESOO. AEMO Executive Briefing