GLOBAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF HCFCS AND HFCS

Transcription

1 GLOBAL SUPPLY AND DEMAND OF HCFCS AND HFCS Workshop on Implementation Progress of HCFC Phase-out in A/C and Foam Sector in Thailand Viraj Vithoontien World Bank April 1, 2016

2 SOURCES OF HCFC SUPPLY Non-Article 5 HCFC Producers Article 5 HCFC Producers Canada HCFC-123, HFC-124 China, PR HCFC-22, HCFC-141b, HCFC-142b, HCFC- 123, HCFC-124 France HCFC-22 Argentina HCFC-22 Germany (Closed 2011) India HCFC-22 Japan HCFC-22, HCFC-225, HCFC-142b Mexico HCFC-22 Netherland HCFC-22 Venezuela HCFC-22 Russian Federation HCFC-22, HCFC-142b North Korea HCFC-22 United States of America HCFC-22, HCFC-142b South Korea HCFC-22

3 SUPPLY OF HCFC-22 FROM ARTICLE 5 COUNTRIES Country Baseline (MT) % of BL China 311,458 N/A 287, , Argentina 4,084 4,190 1,951 2, India 43,627 28,462 24,583 26, Mexico 12,672 5,424 5,765 4, Venezuela 2,237 2,914 2,204 1, North Korea South Korea 7,184 5,576 6,501 6, Total 381,763 N/A 329, ,703 90

4 SUPPLY OF HCFC-141b, HCFC-142b, HCFC-123, HCFC-124 FROM CHINA HCFC HCFC Production (MT) HCFC Export to A5 Parties (MT) HCFC-141b 86,911 34,473 HCFC-142b 16,561 5,058 HCFC-123 1,931 1,056 HCFC Export of HCFC-141b to Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, is about 7% of China s export to A5 countries

5 THAILAND HCFC CONSUMPTION IN 2013 AND 2014 HCFC Baseline (MT) 2013 (MT) 2014 (MT) 2015 (MT) HCFC-22 13,029 12,246 11,764 10,390 HCFC-141b 1,866 1,719 1,590 1,818 HCFC-142b HCFC HCFC HCFC Total 15,102 14,124 13,534 12,383

6 HCFC SUPPLY FROM NON-ARTICLE 5 COUNTRIES (ODP T) Country Baseline (ODP t) % of BL Canada France 2, Germany 3,426 (8) (9) (9) 0 Japan 5, Netherland 1, Russian Federation United States of America 4, ,390 1,505 1,207 1,169 8 Total 33,253 2,605 2,283 2, % reduction from baseline by 2010; 90% reduction from baseline by 2015

7 HCFC PRODUCTION IN NON-ARTICLE 5 COUNTRIES Producers in US, Russia, Japan, and Canada, are producing more than one HCFC. Since countries reported their production in aggregate and in ODP t, it is not possible to estimate production of each individual HCFC; France and Netherland are only producing HCFC-22; hence, HCFC-22 production of these two countries could be determined, if needed; Canada produces HCFC-123 but it is not clear if Canada still produces HCFC-124; HCFC-22 and HCFC-142b are still produced but large share is for feedstock; and, therefore, those quantities are not included.

8 HFC SUPPLY AND DEMAND HFCs were introduced as alternatives to CFCs and HCFCs in some applications. The following are the main areas where HFCs are used: Mobile air conditioners (MACs) HFC-134a; Domestic refrigerators HFC-134a; Commercial and residential a/c HFC-134a, HFC-32, R-410A (R-32/R125), R-407C (R-32/R125/R-134a); Commercial and industrial refrigeration HFC-134a, HFC-23, R-404A (R- 125/R-143a/R-134a); R-407A (R-32/R-125/R-134a); R-507 (R-125/r-143a); Blowing agents in PU foam HFC-365mfc, HFC-245fa; Fire extinguishers HFC-227ea, HFC-236fa, HFC-125, HFC-23; Propellants for aerosols HFC-134a, HFC-152a, HFC-227ea; MDIs HFC-134a, HFC-227ea

9 CLIMATE IMPACT OF HFCS HFC GWP HFC GWP HFC-23 14,760 HFC HFC-125 3,500 HFC-134a 1,430 HFC-143a 4,470 HFC-152a 124 HFC-227ea 3,220 HFC-236fa 9,810 HFC-245fa 950 HFC-365mfc 890 R-404A 3,260 R-407A 2,100 R-407C 1,800 R-410A 2,100 R-507A 4,000

10 FUTURE TRENDS Use of HFC-134a in domestic refrigerators and small commercial appliances are likely to be phased out over the coming years and replaced by HFO-1234yf, R-600a; Use of HFC-134a for mobile a/c will gradually be replaced by HFO-1234yf. However, significant demand of HFC-134a will remain in the service sector; Demand for R-410A for a/c will keep growing due to the rapid growth in the demand for a/c in developing countries. R-32 might take a share of R-410A market; Use of blended refrigerants in commercial and industrial refrigeration is likely to grow. As a result, demand for HFC-125 and HFC-32 would keep growing.

11 HFC SUPPLY The producers of HFCs by country are: Non-Article 5 countries/regions: USA (HFC-32 HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-143a, HFC-152a, HFC-245fa); Japan (HFC-134a, HFC-125, HFC-143a); EU (HFC-32, HFC-125, HFC-134a, HFC-152a, HFC-365mfc); Article 5 countries: China (HFC-32, HFC-134a, HFC-152a, HFC-227ea, HFC-236, HFC-227ea, HFC- 245fa, ad HFC-365 mfc); India (HFC-134a, HFC-32).

12 HFC PRODUCTION CAPACITY (TPA) HFC EU Japan USA China India HFC-32 5,000 20, ,000 5,000* HFC ,000 2,000 30, ,000 HFC-134a 50,000 40, , ,000 17,500 HFC-143a 10,000 20,000 2,000 28,000 HFC-152a 2,000 20, ,000 HFC-227ea 0 9,000 HFC ,000 HFC-245fa 0 20,000 15,000 HFC- 365mfc 20,000 *Capacity of HFC-32 in India is reported by OORG

13 HFC DEMAND HFC HFC Production Capacity (MT/Y) Estimated Demand HFC ,000 40,000 50,000 HFC ,000 65,000 75,000 HFC-134a 452, , ,000 HFC-143a 60,000 40,000 50,000 Production of HFC (MT/Y) China Others 55,000 N/A 80,000 N/A 138,000 N/A 20,000 N/A HFC-152a 132,000 N/A 72,000 N/A HFC-227ea 9,000 N/A 8,000 N/A HFC-236 5,000 N/A 3,000 N/A HFC-245fa 35,000 N/A N/A N/A HFC-365mfc 20,000 N/A 2,000 Total 1,090, ,000

14 HFC DEMAND (Source: RTOC, HPMPs & Industrial Statistics) Application Uses Annual Demand MAC Sector: HFC-134a is used in all mobile airconditioners globally AC Sector R-410A is the main substitute to HCFC- 22 in A/C sector. HFC-32 has now been introduced in Japan, India, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam Annual sales of new vehicles in 2014 were about 100 million units/year It is estimated that there are around 1 billion cars in use with MACs today. Annual sales of A/Cs globally is 120 million units a year, of which about 40 million is R-410A. Installed AC based of R-410A and some 407C. The charge size per vehicle ranges from 0.4 kg/unit to 1.2 kg/unit. An average of 0.8 kg/unit is used. Total use in MAC is about 800,000 MT/year Leakage rate has gone down over the year and varies from region to region. An average leakage rate of 3%- 5% (30,000 50,000 MT/year Based on an average charge of R-410A of 1.2 to 1.5 kg/unit, an annual demand is about 48,000 60,000 MT/y Service demand for R-410A A/Cs based on a leakage rate of 2% - 4%, the total demand is about 2,400 MT/y 4,800 MT/y.

15 HFC DEMAND (Source: RTOC, HPMPs & Industrial Statistics) Application Uses Annual Demand Dom Ref Sector: HFC-134a is used in domestic refrigerators and small commercial refrigeration units Commercial and industrial Ref Sector. This sector consists of a large number of different CR & IR applications About 170 million dom refrigerators were produced in 2013 of which 30% was with HFC-134a and 20 million smaller commercial refrigeration units. Installed HFC-134a refrigerators are about 2 billion units. Very limited information is available. Very limited information is available. With an average charge of 0.15 kg of domestic refrigerators and 0.4 kg for commercial refrigerators, the annual usage is about 15,650 MT/year. Service demand differs from region to region. It is estimated about 23,800 34,000 MT/year is used based on 7% - 10% leakage rate. It is estimated that around 30,000 MT of HFC blends are sold annually. It is estimated that total refrigerant in the installed units is 200,000 MT and an annual leakage rate is 20,000 30,000 MT/year (10% - 15% leakage rate).

16 CFC & HCFC PHASE-OUT LED TO GROWTH IN HFC EMISSION Domestic Refrigerator CFC-12 HFC-134a Foam* CFC-11 HCFC- 141b HFC-245fa, HFC-365mfc/227ea Mobile AC CFC-12 HFC-134a Residential AC HCFC-22 R-410A * Many large foam enterprises converted directly from CFC-11 or HCFC-141b to cyclopentane

17 HISTORY OF HFC PHASE-DOWN AMENDMENT PROPOSALS 2009 First time that HFC phase-down amendment proposal was tabled. Submitted by Federated States of Micronesia and Mauritius 2010 North America (Canada, Mexico, USA) proposed its first HFC phasedown amendment proposal 2015 India and EU put forward their own HFC phase-down amendment proposals 2015 Formal contact group on feasibility and means of managing HFCs established at resumed 36 th OEWG Dubai pathway on HFCs

18 HFC PHASE-DOWN AMENDMENT PROPOSALS Four HFC phase-down amendment proposals submitted for consideration at 27th MOP in November 2015 North American Proposal (UNEP/OzL.Pro.27/5) India Proposal (UNEP/OzL.Pro.27/6) EU Proposal (UNEP/OzL.Pro.27/7) Pacific Islands (Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Mauritius, Micronesia, Palau, Samoa and Solomon Islands) and Philippines Proposal (UNEP/OzL.Pro.27/8) 18

19 HFC REDUCTION SCHEDULE: NORTH AMERICA AND EU PROPOSALS

20 HFC REDUCTION SCHEDULE: INDIA & ISLAND STATES PROPOSALS 20

21 COMPARISON OF REDUCTION STEPS AND GRACE PERIOD OF THE 4 PROPOSALS 21

22 Energy efficiency Funding requirements Safety of substitutes Availability of technologies Performance and challenges in high ambient temperatures Rates of penetration of new alternatives Exemptions and ways to address lack of alternatives Technology transfer Second and third conversions Flexibility in implementation Capacity-building Non-party trade provisions Synergies with UNFCCC (legal, financial aspects) Relationship with the HCFC phase-out Ecological effects (effects on fauna and flora) Implications for human health Social implications National policy implications Challenges to the production sector CHALLENGES TO BE ADDRESSED (ANNEX II OF 35 TH OEWG REPORT) 22

23 DUBAI PATHWAY ON HFCS (DECISION XXVII/1) To work within MP to an HFC amendment in 2016 by first resolving challenges by generating solutions in the contact group on the feasibility and ways of managing HFCs during MP meetings Recognize progress made at the 27 th MOP and endorse concepts Recognize that further progress still needs to be made, in particular with respect to other challenges identified in the contact group mandate, for example conversion costs, technology transfer and intellectual property rights To hold a series of OEWGs including extraordinary MOP To continue consideration of the amendment proposals at the above meetings in 2016

24 ISSUES RAISED AND DISCUSSED IN DETAIL THAT WILL BE FURTHER DISCUSSED (1) (ANNEX II TO DECISION XXVII/I) Funding Flexibility Maintain MLF as the financial mechanism Additional financial resources will be provided A5 parties will have flexibility to prioritize HFCs, define sectors, select technologies/alternatives, elaborate and implement their strategies ExCom shall incorporate the above principle in relevant guidelines and decision making process Guidance to the ExCom Guidelines and/or methodologies will have to be developed on the following issues: Determination and calculation of incremental costs Cost effectiveness thresholds Energy efficiency and climate impacts of projects 24

25 ISSUES RAISED AND DISCUSSED IN DETAIL THAT WILL BE FURTHER DISCUSSED (2) (ANNEX II TO DECISION XXVII/I) 2 nd and 3 rd conversion Enterprises that have already converted to HFCs in phasing out CFCs and/or HCFCs will be eligible Enabling activities to be supported by MLF Capacity building and training for handling HFC alternatives Institutional strengthening Article 4b Licensing Reporting Demonstration Projects Developing national strategies High Ambient Temperature Need for an exemption for high ambient temperature countries 25