The importance of comparable and reliable data in the energy sector and its strategic role in national policies

Transcription

1 The importance of comparable and reliable data in the energy sector and its strategic role in national policies Damir Pesut Senior Expert on Statistics, INOGATE Technical Secretariat, Strategic Role of Statistics in National Policies and Improving Statistics through Division of Labour and Data Sharing

2 We need energy Now days, almost any activity requires energy. This is true for individuals, for any process whether in industry or in the kitchen of a household.

3 We need energy Why you can t be satisfied with solar energy as everybody else?

4 The need of energy Why you can t be satisfied with solar energy as everybody else?

5 Poverty consumption per capita

6 An integrated energy policy

7 Needed data Supplay and demand data Capacity data Price data Network/transport data, imports/exports

8 Security of supply Why statistics? Objectiv necessity for the purpose of the Treaty Market integration efficiency The Treaty Environment protection Precondition: Reliable and consistent data Use of renewable sources Define objectives Set targets Design measures Input to set objectives and design policies policies Monitoring of effectiveness of policies Monitoring of compliance with commitments ACTION: Build reliable statistics DATA: PRECONDITION TO DEFINE,IMPLEMENT AND MONITOR POLICIES

9 The Planning Process Planning energy system is : acting before it s too late The risk is that your energy system be unable to sustain the needs of tomorrow The risk is that what you start building now proves to be the wrong choice tomorrow Good governance requires to plan well in advance, and to plan well

10 Planning in energy systems is especially important due to its specific features The energy systems are: Time inertial long lead time is required to build infrastructures which provide additional energy Capital intensive considerable investments are required, with long term payback period Multiple alternatives in options to provide depending on needs

11 The Planning Process Economic Growth Resource Demand Technology Supply/Demand Balance Impacts Decision Feedback

12 Parts of Overall planning process Economic Growth Demand Supply/Demand Balance Impacts Decision Resource Technology Feedback

13 The Economic Seeks To Develop Projections of Overall Growth A B GDP, Population, etc. C Scenarios Can Be Used to Address Uncertainty Historical TIME Projected

14 Parts of Overall planning process Economic Growth Demand Supply/Demand Balance Impacts Decision Resource Technology Feedback

15 The Demand Focuses On Activities of Individual Sectors Industry Residential Services Transport Agriculture etc.

16 Parts of Overall planning process Economic Growth Demand Supply/Demand Balance Impacts Decision Resource Technology Feedback

17 The Resource Deals with Materials Fossil Fuels Coal, Oil, Natural Gas Renewable Resources Wind, Biomass, Solar, Hydro Nuclear Materials Uranium, Thorium Domestic and Imported Resources also Need to Be Considered

18 Parts of Overall planning process Economic Growth Demand Supply/Demand Balance Impacts Decision Resource Technology Feedback

19 The Technology Characterization Is Designed To Evaluate The Supply System Coal Mining Coal Power Current System Transport Structure Plant Transmission Oil Production Petroleum Planned Refining Expansions/Retirements Pipelines Ethanol New Technologies Production Biomass Cultivation Consumers

20 Parts of Overall planning process Economic Growth Demand Supply/Demand Balance Impacts Decision Resource Technology Feedback

21 Parts of Overall planning process Economic Growth Demand Supply/Demand Balance Impacts Decision Resource Technology Feedback

22 Parts of Overall planning process Economic Growth Demand Supply/Demand Balance Impacts Decision Resource Technology Feedback Feedback

23 The Planning Process Economic Growth Resource Demand Technology Supply/Demand Balance Impacts Decision Feedback

24 efficiency indicators

25 Introduction As governments around the world tackle the complex and intertwined challenges of improving energy security and reducing associated carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions while also supporting economic development objectives two things are increasingly clear: Ensuring a better use of the world s energy resources will require policies that encompass a wide range of options. There is a growing recognition that improving energy efficiency is often the most economic, proven and readily available means of achieving this goal. Establishing and maintaining sound policies requires the availability of good quality, timely, comparable and detailed data that go well beyond those currently included in energy balances, and reflect the distinct characteristics of economic activity and resources available in each country.

26 Useful Demand Differs from Final Consumption Useful (UED) 50 m3 steam 70 Giga joules Final Consumption (FEC) 4 tons of coal 100 Giga joules Thermodynamic Efficiency (η) 70% The general equation is UED = FEC x η

27 Mine Well Import ENERGY CHAIN Electrical Plant Refinery Consumer Conversion Transmission Conversion PRIMARY SECONDARY FINAL USEFUL - oil - gas - coal - water - - diesel - kerosene - gas - electricity - - diesel - kerosene - gas - electricity - - heat - light - mechanical energy -

28 The Product or Service Provided per Unit of Used Is Referred to as the Intensity Final Consumption (FEC) 100 tonnes coal 2500 Giga joules Product/Service Provided (PSP) 25 tonnes steel Intensity (EI) 4 tonnes coal per tonne steel produced The general equation is EI = FEC / PSP

29 The Product or Service Provided per Unit of Used Is Referred to as the Intensity Final Consumption (FEC) 5 liters gasoline 170 Mega joules Product/Service Provided (PSP) 100 vehicle-km travelled Intensity (EI) 5 liters of gasoline per 100 vehicle-km travelled The general equation is EI = FEC / PSP

30 Indicators aggregate indicators have the advantage that they are often readily and widely available: thus, they can reveal high-level developments in energy use and can be constructed to facilitate basic cross-country comparisons in order to develop estimates of overall energy efficiency, detailed data are required for the main enduse sectors as each main sector is influenced by different underlying factors, different explanatory data will be needed depending on the sector analysed such data are not reported in energy balances and are currently available for only a few countries

31 Curent situation recent efforts by several countries to collect more detailed end-use data have helped to develop energy efficiency indicators which provide important information to understanding past trends, assessing potential for energy savings and enhancing energy efficiency policies however, much more still needs to be done

32 Survey in households METHODOLOGICAL CONCEPT OF CONDUCTING THE SURVEY sample size definition locations of survey SAMPLE SIZE DATA ENTRY Locations of survey Federacija BiH HUSEHOLD QUESTIONNAIRE: number of questioners by locations survey questionnaire preparation organizing and carrying out the survey data entry into the database Republika Srpska Information on the household Information about residential structure Heating, hot water supply, cooking SURVEY RESULTS: Economic Distrikt condition Brčko and property of the 200 household Residential energy needs Data on vehicles usefule energy consumption normativs Social energy TOTAL aspects consumption BiH energy consumption by services 4000 The opinion on energy consumptionitanja energy consumption by energy forms TOTAL: 60 questionnes DATA ANALYSES AND MODELING

33 Needed energy balance in household sector Item Unit Final energy Space heating Water heating Cooking Air conditioning Lighting Appliances Traditional fuels ktoe Modern biomass ktoe Electricity ktoe District heat ktoe Soft solar ktoe Fossil fuels ktoe Total ktoe LPG ktoe Coal and Coal Pr. ktoe Other Petroleum Pr. ktoe Natural Gas ktoe Fossil fuels ktoe

34 Degree of disaggregation The IEA energy indicators pyramid Aggregated indicators Disaggregated indicators TFC /GT FCD P TFC/GDP Sectoral energy intensity Sectoral energy intensity intensity End-use energy IEA energy balance IEA indicator database Unit energy consumption Limited IEA indicators Data requirement

35 Disaggregation of sectors, sub-sectors, and end-uses in IEA energy indicators approach Final Consumption Households Services Passenger travel Freight transport Manufacturing Other industry Space heating Space cooling Water heating Appliances Cooking Lighting Appliances Space heating Space cooling Water heating Lighting Other equipmen t Cars & light duty vehicles Motorcycles Buses Passenger rail Passenger ships Domestic planes Trucks Freight rail Domestic shipping Domestic air freight Food, beverages & tobacco Paper, pulp & printing Industrial chemicals Non-metallic minerals Primary metals Metal products & equipment Other Agriculture, forestry & fishing Mining Constructi on Electricity, gas & water distribution

36 Residential energy consumption and aggregate energy intensity

37 Detailed indicators pyramid of the residential sector Level 1 Aggregate indicators Level 2 Urban vs. rural Level 3 Dwelling type (e.g. single-family dwellings vs. apartment Level 4 End-use (e.g. space heating and cooling, water heating, appliances)

38 Example of level 1 indicators in Germany, Italy and the United States

39 consumption and intensity in rural and urban areas in India

40 consumption and intensity for different dwelling type in Canada

41 Example cooking energy intensity by countries (energy/dwelling)

42 consumption for large and small appliances

43 Climate-corrected energy intensity for selected countries

44 Summary of variables used for the decomposition of residential energy consumption End-use 1 Activity (A) Structure (S) Space heating Population Floor area / population Water heating Population / occupied dwellings Cooking Population / occupied dwellings Lighting Floor Area / population Appliances Appliances ownership / population Intensity (I) Space heating energy 2 / floor area Water heating energy 3 / occupied dwelling Cooking energy 3 / occupied dwellings Lighting energy / floor area Appliances energy / appliance ownership

45 The role of energy statistics and modeling in developing of framework for assistance to low income households in energy consumption in Croatia Institute Hrvoje Požar Zagreb, Croatia

46 The starting point for social assistance model social energy is the energy which households must have at their disposal to satisfy the need for an adequate standard of living (minimum living standard conditions) the support to social energy is based on the principles of solidarity providing energy services to the final users is a market-driven activity

47 Initial problems is a household which has the status of a social household vulnerable to the changes in energy prices? how to identify poor and energy poor houesholds? where to find consistent data? what is the minimum of energy needs of the households? how to finance the energy needed for the achievement of the minimum living standard conditions? how to ensure the use of allocated funds?

48 affordability threshold Electricity Heating Water World Bank (2002) WHO (2004) 10 IPA energy (2003) 10 UN/ECE 15 UK 10 3 US 6 2,5 Asian Development Bank 5 share of energy costs in household incomes depends on the present situation in a country (current economic situation, etc.)

49 costs for energy in income, % affordability in Croatia (2009) 40 % of housholds spend more than 10 % of their income on energy costs 25 Total energy Electricity Fuel Wood what is the energy affordability threshold in Croatia? what is the fund needed asssitance? income classes are clasess which size ammounts 10 % of the total number of households, income clasess are listed by income, from the poorest to the wealthiest & income classes Source : National Statistics Burro Living standard measurement surveys, annual researches,

50 Development of the Croatian model 1. Identifying main parametars of the model (regional characteristics, income classes - energy consumption) 2. Calculation of the energy needs and costs 3. Financing options 4. Institutional organisation 5. Implemenation

51 1. Identifying main parametres (1) number of household members; dwelling size - surface area (m2)*: - for families with 1 household member 35 m2; - for every other member additional 10 m2; - for disabled person additional 20 %; available energy infrastructure; - natural gas, district heating, fuel wood household s income. * minimum living standards according to the Law on Social Care

52 Spatial characteristics of energy consumption Region: NORTH Region: SOUTH Region: CENTER Number of households: Region North: 1,010 tis. (66 %) Region Centar: 97 tis. ( 6 %) Region South: 426 tis. (28 %) TOTAL: tis. Source : National Statistics Burro, Census 2011

53 structure for the heating in houesholds Region: NORTH Zastupljenost korištenja energenata za grijanje Income classes: 10 income classes (10 % of the total number) listed by income, from the poorest to the wealthiest 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1. i PP ELLU CTS DRVO decili In addition: 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 Region: CENTER Zastupljenost korištenja energenata za grijanje 1. i ELLU DRVO ELEN Except income, energy consumption also depends on: energy availability climatic and weather circumstances 0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 decili Region: SOUTH Zastupljenost korištenja energenata za grijanje 1. i plin ELLU CTS DRVO ELEN decili Source: National Statistics Burro, Living standard measurement survey

54 1. Identifying main parametres (2) o heating (room heating) depends on the region (climatic and weather circumstances, living standards, living habits, etc.) specific norms for heating were developed and adopted (MJ/m2) o cooking & hot water specific norms were adopted according to the average consumption in a household in Croatia (kwh/household member), MJ/household member o non-thermal consumption (appliances, lighting) specific norm is considered as a social consumption which amounts 80 % of the average household in Croatia, MJ/ household member.

55 2. Calculation of energy needs and costs (1) Example for one household INPUT DATA 1. General data Number of household members 4 Total monthly income, kn 3000 Affordability Thresholds 15% energy form/ energy use 2. Consumption Structure, % Natural gas Light fuel oil District heating Fuel wood heating 100 Electricity cooking hot water 100 non thermal consumption 100 REGION NORTH Liquid petroleum gas Source: Institute Hrvoje Pozar (energy end-use energy planning models and results of the surveys on energy consumption)

56 2. Calculation of energy needs and dweling surface area, m2 65 energy form/ energy use RESULTS OF THE MODEL Natural gas 3. needs Light fuel oil District heating Fuel wood Electricity Liquid petroleum gas m3 lit kwh m3 kwh kg heating ,9 0,0 0 cooking , hot water ,036 0 non thermal 2,480 Total consumption , Total costs, kn Costs, kn ,962 3,918 0 Total annual costs, kn 5,880 kn costs (2) Share of energy costs in income 19,6% Share of subvention in energy costs 23% The marginal monthly income 3,267 kn TOTAL ANNUAL SUBVENTION 1,380 kn

57 2. Presentation of results Assumption: the household with same characteristics

58 Estimation of the fund needed for assistance to the households in energy consumption PRELIMINARY CONCLUSIONS: decision of about energy threshold depends on the government s ability to finance the program the preferable energy affordability threshold for Croatia is15 %, it should be revised annually according to the current economic situation 125 mil. 15 % threshold - 95 mil. selection of the correction factor for non-thermal energy consumption can also be a part of the social policy

59 3. The financing scheme companies Local authorities State budget (responsible Ministry) SOLIDARITY FUND Local Social Care Centres

60 4. Institutional organisation Local Centres for Social Care implement social policies in Croatia at local level proposed tasks and responsibilities of a Local Centre: receives requests for the subvention of energy costs from households (requests include the main data on households characteristics) calculates energy needs and assumes the needed financial support, co-operates with energy suppliers, carries out and controls financial transascions for energy support for each household.

61 5. Proposed implemenation concepts Local Centres for Social Care communicates directly with the energy supplier and informs the household on the amount of the subvention vaucher scheme the representative of the household brings the voucher directly to the energy supplier which proves that the Local Centre covered a part of the energy costs smart cards sheme - similar to the vaucher scheme; but the energy supplier has to provide devices for the use of the smart card

62 Needed prerequisites for the proposed model implementation adoption of criteria which make households eligible to apply for energy consumption subsidy energy affordability threshold; development of the regulation with definitions of the technical, social and energy criteria; establishment of the Solidarity Fund; add in the existing Law on the possibility that energy subjects contribute to the Solidarity Fund; developement of the appropriate IT support for the data exchange, verification and monitoring of the model results.

63 Main conclusions consisent energy data are necessary for the evaluation and monitoring of the model results the proposed model allows a just and fair allocation of funds intended for assistance to the households in energy consumption in Croatia; the model contributes to the realization of the minimum living standard conditions in Croatian households; model contributes to the complete liberalization of the energy market in Croatia, the funds are allocated, other.

64 Damir Pešut Senior Expert, Statistics Alenka Kinderman Lončarević Senior Expert, Statistics INOGATE Technical Secretariat and Integrated Programme in support of the Baku Initiative and the Eastern Partnership energy objectives