Modelling to measurements and back

Transcription

1 Modelling to measurements and back Niels G Mortensen Resource Assessment Modelling Section SARETEC Study Tour DTU Risø Campus This material is not for public distribution. Any use of the material must be given the appropriate reference: Source: DTU Wind Energy. For users other than the SARETEC Study Tour members visiting DTU 15 and 17 November 2016, prior permission must be obtained before using this material.

2 Resource Assessment Modelling Section 2

3 Wind Energy Department sections Aerodynamic Design Composites & Material Mechanics Fluid Mechanics Integration and Planning Wind Turbine Loads and Control Materials Science and Characterization Meteorology and Remote Sensing Resource Assessment Modelling Test and Measurements Wind Turbine Structures and Component Design Resource Assessment Modelling Mesoscale modelling Wind resources and wind atlas Extreme wind conditions Forecasting and variability Wakes and icing conditions Microscale modelling Wind resources and wind atlas IEC wind conditions and siting Software development (WAsP) Statistics and spectral analysis Site suitability Extreme winds and waves Wakes and wake modelling 3

4 IRENA Global Atlas for Renewable Energy 4

5 Global Wind Atlas 5

6 Wind Atlas for South Africa 6

7 Detailed wind resource map 7

8 Behind the scenes Best practice guidelines IEC standards Measnet guidelines WAsP best practices WRF best practices Engineering best practice Quality assurance Sensitivity analyses Verification and validation Uncertainty assessment Reporting practices 8

9 Validation of global wind atlas 9

10 Validation of WASA numerical wind atlas 10

11 Validation of microscale modelling WM05 Napier Elevation: 288 m MAPE: 0.6% WM06 Sutherland Elevation: 1581 m MAPE: 0.6% WM07 Beaufort W Elevation: 1047 m MAPE: 0.5% 11

12 WM05: SA20 versus SUDEM (Frogfoot 1) 12

13 WM05: SRTM3 3.0 versus SUDEM (Frogfoot 2) 13

14 Mast (sensor) coordinates to 1 m Handheld GPS (x, y, datum) Repeated measurements Averaged measurements Differential GPS Topographical maps (x, y, z, datum) Local topographical maps SRTM or similar elevation map Google Earth or similar land cover information. 14

15 Anemometer heights above ground to 1 cm Measuring tape & technician Laser distance meter (rangefinder) Leica DISTO D8 Up to 80 m Bracket Tripod 15

16 Example: anemometer heights in South Africa 16

17 Wind vane verification procedure to 1 17

18 Example from South Africa 18

19 The goal: resources, wind conditions, uncertainty,... 19

20 Wind farm Annual Energy Production (AEP) 20

21 Concluding remarks Resource Assessment Modelling Mesoscale modelling Microscale modelling Statistics and spectral analysis Best practice guidelines IEC standards Measnet guidelines Modelling best practices Engineering best practice Quality assurance Sensitivity analyses Verification and validation Uncertainty assessment Documentation practices 21

22 WASA fundamentals and guiding principles Public domain [and free] Traceable and transparent [methodology] Industry-standard [tools and procedures] Uncertainties assessed [to the extent possible] Platform for future development [research based] Results of the Wind Atlas for South Africa (WASA) WASA Project Team, 8 April 2014, Cape Town 22