Draft Outcome Monitoring and Evaluation Plan

Transcription

1 Draft Outcome Monitoring and Evaluation Plan Section Page 1. LSTF Monitoring and Evaluation Plan Background 1 2. BIGHERTSBIGIDEAS Objectives and Outcomes 5 3. Data Requirements 9 4. Proposed Reporting Data collection within the BIGHERTSBIGIDEAS area Resourcing and Governance Delivering Plan Dissemination Plan Key Milestones 35 Appendices Appendix A LSTF Project Costs Appendix B Project Delivery Timetables Appendix C Benefits Realisation Plan (taken from Large Project Business Case) Appendix D - LSTF Programme Logic Maps Appendix E - Vehicle Count Site Locations Appendix F LSTF Project Outcome Monitoring Plan Appendix G Monitoring and Evaluation Budget Appendix H - Monitoring and Evaluation Delivery Plan

2 1. LSTF Monitoring and Evaluation Plan Background 1.1. Introduction The BIGHERTSBIGIDEAS project is a package of complementary transport measures which aims to improve the local economy and reduce carbon emissions in Watford, St Albans and Hemel Hempstead The project secured 9.7m from the Department for Transport s (DfT) Local Sustainable Transport Fund (LSTF) for the period 2012/13 to 2014/15. This is in addition to 1.99m secured for the Key Component project in 2011/ This monitoring and evaluation plan sets out Hertfordshire County Council s (HCC) approach to delivering against the DfT s monitoring and evaluation framework and the objectives used to measure outcomes against This plan is a live document and therefore project deadlines may alter and data resources may improve during the three years of implementation. The Output Reports and Outcome Monitoring Reports will be updated throughout the LSTF delivery period as additional information is made available Project Background and Context The Economic Case demonstrated that the BIGHERTSBIGIDEAS Large Project package will significantly reduce traffic congestion and carbon emissions across the bid area. Economic growth will be delivered primarily through de-congestion benefits to business and freight, resulting in the forecasted removal of over 5,500 trips by car each day in 2015, rising to nearly 6,000 by The reduction in car trips and improved journey times delivers a reduction in carbon of more than 18,000 tonnes over the 30-year appraisal period. The modelled economic benefits have a net present value of 116m. The package delivers a strong Benefit-Cost Ratio of 6.6:1 (a BCR of above 2:1 is considered to represent high value for money). The package will also lever in an additional 3.4m of local match funding contribution The LSTF Large Project programme has been sub-divided into five thematic elements; Element A Walking and Cycling Improvements Element B Better Public Transport Services Element C Innovative Transport Solutions Element D Travel Planning, Education and Behavioural Change Element E Technology to Improve Transport Table 1 below outlines the various projects that are included within the specific elements of the Large Project Bid. 1

3 Table 1: LSTF Programme Elements and Projects Element A: Walking & Cycling Location Project Hemel Hempstead Maylands to Hemel Hempstead Town Centre Walking & Cycling Hemel Hempstead Nickey Line Access Improvements (includes Rebourn Road + leaflets) St Albans St Albans Green Ring Hemel Hempstead Maylands Avenue Urban Realm Watford A412 Cycle Route Watford Clarendon Road Pedestrian Improvements Across LSTF Area Cycle Parking in 3 towns Watford Station to Town Centre Cycle Route Watford Watford Town Centre re-development Element B: Walking & Cycling Across LSTF Area QNP: Bus and Infrastructure Upgrades Hemel Hempstead Maylands to Station Bus Link Hemel Hempstead Maylands Bus Interchange Improvements Element C : Innovative Transport Solutions Across LSTF Area SCOOTS Scooter Loan Project Across LSTF Area Home to School Transport Element D: Travel Planning, Education and Behavioural Change Hemel Hempstead Travelsmart Hemel Hemsptead St Albans Travelsmart St Albans Across LSTF Area QNP Stop Specific Tables Across LSTF Area QNP Support Officers Across LSTF Area QNP Household Marketing Hemel Hempstead Maylands Area Travel Plan Hemel Hempstead Maylands Car Club Hemel Hempstead Business & School Travel Planning Across LSTF Area Skyride Partnership Across LSTF Area Challenge for Change (Business Cycle Challenge) Element E: Technology to Improve Transport Across LSTF Area Intelligent Transport Systems Across LSTF Area Smart Ticketing 1.3 Costs Associated with the project delivery The individual project costs are outlined in Appendix A to this document and includes those elements that have a match funding contribution along with the source of the match funding. 1.4 Delivery Timeframes Appendix B is taken from the LSTF Business Case and outlines the project delivery timescales for the five programme elements. As this has been taken from the Business Case some of the timescales may have adjusted, however these will be explained fully within the output and outcome monitoring report, including reasons for delays or advanced completion. 2

4 1.5 Explanation of Wider Delivery Context The need for transport intervention in Hertfordshire was outlined in the original LSTF Business Case which looked at the existing conditions and the future do minimum scenario without intervention Some of the headline statistics from the bid are presented below; The urban cluster of Hemel Hempstead, Watford and St Albans (and surrounding travel to work area) is the major economic hub of Hertfordshire, with 40% of Hertfordshire s businesses (20,000) and employment (200,000) located here. National projections forecast the population of Dacorum, St Albans, Three Rivers and Watford to grow by 15,400, 24,700, 16,100 and 15,700 respectively in the period (totalling 71,900 people) and in the same period for household12 growth of 11,000, 13,000, 9,000 and 8,000 (totalling 41,000 households). The East of England Forecasting Model forecasts job growth in the period in the districts of Dacorum, St Albans, Three Rivers and Watford of 11,000, 16,900, 3,900 and 6,100, totalling 37,900 jobs. The East of England Transport Economic Evidence Study (TEES) demonstrated that congestion costs businesses and residents around the urban areas of Watford, St Albans, and Hemel Hempstead over 80m a year, and this will more than double to 170m a year by The bid cluster has some areas where total carbon dioxide emissions (all sectors) in the bid area are particularly high, for example St Albans (1130Kt / annum, 2007) is the 10th highest carbon emitting districts in the East of England. Furthermore, transport carbon emissions from will grow by approximately 33% from now to 2031 if we carry on as we are in this area. There are also significant air quality problems in the bid area. High car use generates unacceptable levels of Nitrous Oxide emissions (Hertfordshire has the fifth highest car ownership rate in England). Ten Air Quality Management Areas (AQMAs) have been declared within the bid area: Watford (6), St Albans (3), and Three Rivers Kings Langley (1) Despite Hertfordshire being a net importer of jobs, nearly 22,000 people of working age claim out-of-work benefits of at least one kind (including 7,000 people receiving Job Seekers Allowance) within the bid area There are also a number of ongoing projects that have potential to complement the LSTF programme during the delivery timetable; these are indicated below. Croxley Rail Link (Watford) The proposal is for an extension of the London Underground s Metropolitan line from Croxley to Watford Junction via Watford High Street. The overall aim of the project is to improve east-west links in Watford, thereby supporting economic development and helping to reduce the strain on Watford s busy road network and provide better links with north-west and central London. The scheme would directly benefit and complement the LSTF work in Watford 3

5 that seeks to improve sustainable travel options from Watford Junction station towards the town centre. Abbey Line Light Rail Conversion (Watford to St Albans) The County Council and the Department for Transport are seeking to increase the frequency of services on the local rail line between Watford Junction and St Albans Abbey stations (the Abbey Line ) to run at least halfhourly, by converting the Abbey Line to light rail operation. The LSTF bid would provide sustainable transport links at both ends of the Abbey Line, through the Green Ring and bus improvements at St Albans Abbey, and the Clarendon Road walking and cycling scheme at the Watford Junction end. Watford Junction Station (Watford) Watford Junction Station is currently undergoing improvements through the National Station Improvements Programme. This will include improvements to the bus station and station forecourt, including pedestrian access improvements. This will directly complement the Clarendon Road improvements schemes within the LSTF package by providing a seamless walking and cycling route from the Station to the town centre via Clarendon Road. Hemel Hempstead Bus Station Redevelopment The planned redevelopment of the Hemel Hempstead Bus Station will improve the waiting environment for passengers waiting at the bus station, as well as providing improved travel information. This upgrade will coincide with the Quality Bus Partnership work being undertaken has part of the LSTF programme, especially the work with Uno Bus Company in Hemel Hempstead. Other Funding Opportunities There are a number of other government funding streams that will complement the work undertaken by the LSTF programme. Whilst these are unknown at present, any potential impact will be reported upon within the Outcome Monitoring Reports. 4

6 2. BIGHERTSBIGIDEAS Objectives and Outcomes 2.1 Overall Objectives The over-arching vision and objective of the BIGHERTSBIGIDEAS package is: To maximise the contribution of Hemel Hempstead, St Albans and Watford to the UK s sustainable economic growth by ensuring that: - The economic, environmental and social costs of congestion are reduced; - The area is an exemplar in reducing carbon emissions from transport; - Residents can access key services and jobs; - Businesses can access the labour force, suppliers and customers by sustainable means; - Unemployed people can gain work The benefits accrued by the various elements of the LSTF programme are stated in the Benefits Realisation Plan submitted as part of the Business Case. This has been reproduced and included as Appendix C to this document The agglomerated benefits from the various elements of work have been forecast at the district level and for the whole LSTF programme area. The headline realisations from the LSTF programme are that the various elements will contribute towards the following net benefits; 5,500 car trips removed by m economic benefits to the bid area ( 2m per annum by 2015) 652 tonnes of carbon saved by new cycling trips per day 1300 new walking trips per day Increased air quality in the bid area 7m Present Value Health Benefits 6.7m Present Value increased physical fitness 1.4m Present Value absenteeism Additional 2,700 passenger transport trips by 2015 Business Time Savings of 0.6m in Watford and Hemel Hempstead and 0.34m in St Albans 6000 highway trips removed per day by m Present Value Accident Savings Reduction in unemployment HCC s LSTF Large Project Full Business Case submission (2011) made clear the economic benefits which each LSTF district in Hertfordshire would accrue through the implementation of the LSTF projects. The principal economic benefits of the programme would be through de-congestion from both a reduction in vehicle trips and a modal shift away from car use. Tables 2.1 and 2.2 are taken from Section 3 - Economic Case of the HCC LSTF Large Project Business Case (2011). 5

7 Table 2.1 % Changes in Demand from LSTF Measures Highway Public Transport Cycle Walk Hemel Hempstead -3% +12% +33% +3% St Albans -4% +17% +35% +5% Watford -1% +8% +13% +1% TOTAL -3% +12% +26% +3% The assumptions of modal shift away from car are based on a number of appropriate research publications on the effects of numerous transport interventions. The Large Project Business Case used evidence principally from two sources to appraise each project s impacts; Smarter Choices Changes the way we Travel, 2004 Soft measures hard factors, Through modelling work conducted as part of the Business Case, the impacts of the predicted modal shift were translated into quantifiable economic benefits to the three districts in the LSTF area. These are shown in Table 2.2 below. Table 2.2 Highway Benefits for 2015 Hemel Watford St Albans Total Annual highway trips removed (in ,033 2, s) Annual highway km removed 3,620 3,328 4,120 11,068 (000s) Average trip length (km) Benefits ( 000s, 2002 prices) ,945 Benefits per trips (, 2002 prices) Benefits per km(,2002 prices) The Business Case identified those LSTF interventions which should have greatest impact on modal shift as opposed to improving the generalised cost of travel for existing users of sustainable modes. Those projects predicted to be more influential are; Improvements to National Cycling Network (50% increase in cycling on existing levels, shift from car use) A412 Cycle Improvements (50% increase in cycling on existing levels, shift from car use) St Albans Green Ring (50% increase in cycling on existing levels and 10% increase in walking on existing levels, shift from car use) Travelsmart St Albans & Hemel Hempstead (10% reduction in car trips assigned to variety of modes) Various programme elements being undertaken at the Maylands Business Park (10% reduction in car trips assigned to variety of modes for travel in Hemel Hempstead) This list does not imply that other projects will not accrue any benefits, simply that those stated above will be most effective in achieving modal shift and have the greatest impacts on economic improvement through decongestion and carbon savings. Other projects will contribute towards other benefits including improved access to services and jobs, and increasing travel choice. 6

8 2.2 Logic Map Logic mapping is a process of identifying the objectives, anticipated impacts and the reasoned methods of monitoring against the predicted outcomes. Several logic maps have been produced for the monitoring of this LSTF programme. The logic maps are provided as Appendix D to this document An overall LSTF programme logic map has been produced which at a macro level identifies the synergies between different project elements in achieving the overall stated objectives of the fund A separate logic map has been created for each of the programme elements (A to E). These identify the objectives, impacts and proposed monitoring that will take place to measure the efficacy of the projects of each element. 2.3 Project Outcome and Evaluation Questions The outcome monitoring reports will use the evidence gained from the annual output report, outcome indicators and metrics to answer the following questions for each of the projects as part of an accountability assessment of completed projects in the annual outcome monitoring reports. Was the project delivered on time and within budget? Was any additional match funding gained, and how was this achieved? Were there any unforeseen events/difficulties which hampered project delivery? Was there any direct employment benefits generated by the project; - employment directly generated by LSTF, - enhanced accessibility, or - reduced jobseeker costs due to increased accessibility and take up of employment Did the project lead to an attributable change in travel behaviour that was expected given its relevance to an overall objective? Can the projects quantifiable changes be converted into monetised benefits, if so what was the overall value for money of the project? Did the project have any unexpected outcomes or consequences? 2.4 LSTF Programme Evaluation Questions The purpose of an LSTF programme evaluation is to assess retrospectively, which elements have been successful in both achieving their set objectives in relation to the overall five LSTF objectives and providing Value for Money. The questions stated below will be answered within a final Overall Evaluation Report submitted at the end of the programme in This will review the 7

9 data gathered over the three years and evidence from the outcome and monitoring reports to assess with the following LSTF programme questions. What has been the net effect on vehicle trips within the three districts? What has been the net effect on average journey times throughout the LSTF area? Have carbon emissions been reduced across the LSTF bid area? Has the Air Quality improved or reduced at those AQMA sites within the LSTF Area? Which elements of the LSTF fund either cost less/more than the original bid? What has been the overall efficacy of the LSTF programme on the bid area? Have vacancy rates across the LSTF area changed during the three years of implementation compared with non LSTF areas? Have levels of employment changed within the LSTF area compared with non LSTF areas? Was any element more effective when dealing with a particular demographic group or in a certain sector? Did the LSTF programme synergise with or facilitate other developments or major schemes in the LSTF bid area? Which projects produced unexpected outcomes or consequences? Additional questions if funding available for comparative analysis with forecast transport model. Have the changes in traffic flows led to an aggregated cost/saving to the county? Has the net effect on reductions in vehicle trips as per the forecast model been realised? 8

10 3. Data Requirements 3.1 Introduction In order to monitor the efficacy of the LSTF programme against the objectives and the assumed benefits stated previously in this report, the Department for Transport has outlined that every Large Project team will be required to monitor and report changes in travel behaviour, congestion, economic conditions and carbon levels annually using the indicators outlined below; Vehicle Flows Bus and (where applicable) light rail patronage Cycling prevalence Walking journeys Congestion Variation in journey times Total number of households that are able to access site within 20/40mins using public transport/walking, car and cycling Households with access to a site within a reasonable time period by public transport/walking, car and cycle Modal split at specific sites Unemployment Number of households with access to the town centre within a reasonable time Carbon emissions The data included here will be monitored at an aggregate LSTF area level and district level to align with the overall benefits forecasted Economic growth and decongestion are two benefits that have been modelled using transport modelling and appraisal for the overall LSTF programme. The economic growth benefits of 116m and a reduction of 5,500 car trips per day by 2015 are primarily calculated from decongestion benefit which has been modelled using the TUBA model. No budget has been set for a final comparison of vehicle flows and average journey times with those modelled as part of the bid; however this will be the most effective way of measuring economic performance of the LSTF programme. 3.2 Key LTP3 indicators In addition to (and in some cases over-lapping) the indicators outlined above, Hertfordshire s third Local Transport Plan ( ) contains 24 indicators and associated targets, from which data can be provided at a district rather than countywide level. A short-list of the LTP3 indicators directly relevant to BIGHERTSBIGIDEAS (for which the County monitors data annually) is produced in Table 3.1 below. The County Council proposes to also evaluate the success of the LSTF funded packages against these targets. Table 3.1: LTP3 Indicators for BIGHERTSBIGIDEAS programme Hertfordshire LTP3 Indicator LTP3 Baseline level LTP3 2015/16 target Primary LTP3 Indicators for BIGHERTSBIGIDEAS Data source 9

11 Transport Co2 emissions (annual tonnes per capita) Average Congestion (minutes / per mile) Percentage of all journeys by walking under 1 mile in length Percentage of all journeys by cycling under 3 miles in length 1.73 tonnes 1.35 tonnes Department of Energy and Climate Change, supplemented by local data where available 2.87mins/mile 2.80m/mile Department for Transport 58.9% 64% 2.7% 3% Public Transport Patronage 35.4 million 36m User satisfaction with local bus services 78% 80% User satisfaction with Passenger Transport 84% 85% information Secondary LTP3 Indicators for BIGHERTSBIGIDEAS Accessibility Percentage of people who find it easy to travel to key services Air Quality- Mean roadside Nitrogen Dioxide levels across the county People Killed and Seriously Injured 89% 91% 33 ug/m3 25 ug/m3 413 No more than 413 Hertfordshire County Council - County Travel Survey Hertfordshire County Council - County Travel Survey Hertfordshire County Council and other sources Hertfordshire County Council - Annual / biannual Tracker surveys HCC (Bus Booster Survey which specifically asks questions directly related to journey experience) Hertfordshire County Council - annual surveys of residents regarding their ease of access to various facilities District Councils (St Albans, Watford, Three Rivers and Dacorum) (Stats 19) Herts and Beds Police These LTP indicators and objectives are transposed as part of the LSTF monitoring and evaluation plan. Baseline evidence will be collected where possible at a district level unless stated otherwise, with the overall countywide targets being used for the three towns or, where towns have already reached the objectives stated above, the proportional changes will be adopted as a target A significant proportion of the indicators are taken from the County Travel Survey, therefore evidence will be limited to the 2012 survey for baseline data and 2015 survey for post LSTF programme monitoring With this existing monitoring taking place countywide, there is sufficient data to compare with the control towns of Stevenage and Welwyn Garden City. 3.3 Additional Outcome Indicators HCC does not currently monitor accessibility from all residential locations in Hertfordshire however one of the key objectives of the LSTF fund is to improve access to key services and employment, therefore HCC will additionally monitor the following indicator using existing resources; Number of households with access to the town centre within a reasonable time 10

12 3.3.2 ACCESSION mapping software will be used to create a baseline for the number of households with reasonable accessibility to the three LSTF town centres. This will be established for the financial year 2011/12, with annual progress monitoring thereafter as LSTF projects are completed As a proxy for wider accessibility monitoring, the council monitors the level of accessibility from new residential developments to key services within Hertfordshire. Table 3.2 below states the indicator, its baseline levels and targets. Table 3.2 Additional LTP indicator used for LSTF monitoring Hertfordshire LTP3 Indicator LTP3 Baseline level LTP3 2015/16 target Additional Secondary LTP3 Indicators for BIGHERTSBIGIDEAS Accessibility of new developments % of new 97.04% (average Developments within 30 of all five >90% minutes by passenger components) transport of key services Data source PROMS/CPDSMART database The accessibility target for access from new developments recognises pressures on maintaining bus services during the LSTF period given changes in bus funding formula, and whilst a target has been set lower than the existing baseline, the objective is to maintain a high level of accessibility by public transport This indicator will be monitored on an annual basis, with the inclusion of pedestrian, cycle and bus improvements to the calculation process as the schemes are completed throughout the duration of the LSTF programme. 11

13 4. Proposed Reporting 4.1 Introduction This section of the evaluation plan outlines the proposed monitoring timescales and overview of the contents of the baseline data, annual output, outcome monitoring and final overall evaluation reports. 4.2 Baseline Data Report The baseline data report will be submitted alongside the first Outcome Monitoring Report in September This will primarily be based upon evidence from the original LSTF bid document for the outcome indicators outlined in section two of this report, along with data from the latest LTP 3 annual monitoring and the latest annual Road traffic and transport data report produced by HCC every summer. 4.3 Annual Output Report An output report will be submitted annually, commencing in July 2013 until July 2016 as requested by DfT. The report will use the template provided by the DfT to state the budgets spent during each financial year and the projects implemented. This will provide evidence for the Value for Money assessments made as part of the outcome monitoring and final evaluation reports. 4.4 Annual Outcome Monitoring Report It is proposed that an annual outcome monitoring report is submitted to the DfT every September, commencing in 2013 with a final submission in The annual outcome reports will follow a common structure but may vary in content due to the individual implementation timeframes of LSTF projects. The annual outcome monitoring report will include; Overview of LSTF projects progression LSTF objectives/targets Annual data set reporting Analysis of data for key corridors (where applicable) Assessment of data set trends against LSTF objectives and indicators Assessment of projects based on questions outlined in section two Control site data will also be included to assist with the attribution of travel changes to particular projects. 4.5 Final Evaluation Report A final evaluation report will be produced alongside the final outcome monitoring report. The evaluation report will form a conclusion of all elements of the LSTF programme and a summary of the output/outcome monitoring reports produced over the three year LSTF programme. The final evaluation report will also be able to draw on data provided in the 2015 County Travel Survey. 12

14 4.5.2 The evaluation will identify lessons learnt from the projects undertaken, the efficacy in achieving the original objectives of the LSTF fund and in targeting particular demographics and social groups. Section two identified the questions that will guide the structure of the report. 13

15 5. Data collection within the BIGHERTSBIGIDEAS area. 5.1 Introduction This section of the report outlines the data collection methods that are presently used within the County Council and the additional work that will be conducted as part of LSTF monitoring. In general, the metrics used are existing data sources that the council currently assess at a district and countywide level on an annual basis as part of LTP reporting and for HCC s Annual Traffic and Transport Data Report. The additional work needed for LSTF reporting will be the analysis and comparative assessment work, along with potential micro analysis of individual project efficacy where relevant For each metric, it will be stated the sample size which is collected, the mode and frequency of data collection, along with the control sites that will be used in the process of attribution and comparison. 5.2 Monitoring Changes in Travel Patterns - Vehicle Flows Vehicle Count Data HCC has a network of automatic traffic counters in the bid area. The coverage of these is shown in Figure 5.1 overleaf, with further details of the sites being given in Appendix E. The lists of sites are for those locations within the LSTF bid area As part of existing monitoring, the annual Traffic and Transport Data Report reviews annual changes in traffic flows at a district and countywide level and segregates flows by road type throughout the county. The trend data from this report will be drawn upon for the LSTF annual Outcome Monitoring Report. Adapting the Traffic and Transport Data Report for the LSTF bid area will carry limited additional cost to monitoring the programme Vehicle count data will primarily be used to evaluate the overall LSTF programme success through a comparison of vehicle flow data with the anticipated reductions in vehicle trips recorded in the bid s transport model to understand the programme s effectiveness against the projections. Most projects and their benefit realisations relate to vehicle trip reductions at a district or aggregate LSTF level, with no corridor based targets. Therefore monitoring will follow this aggregated basis Isolated annual vehicle count monitoring will take place in two places; - A412 St Albans Road (Watford) - to monitor vehicle levels once the A412 cycle route has been implemented as a measurement of mode shift. - Maylands Avenue (Hemel Hempstead) - to monitor vehicle flow through the business park over the three years Currently, vehicle flow data does not detail the composition of traffic, save for individual manual counts where applicable. 14

16 5.2.6 Vehicle flows are susceptible to external factors such as new development traffic, road closures and economic factors (petrol prices). The risk section will outline all risks and any mitigation available. Figure 5.1: Traffic Count Coverage in the LSTF bid area The towns of Stevenage and Welwyn Garden City are proposed as district control sites for monitoring vehicle flows and for the isolated A412 monitoring, - other principal highway routes into Watford will be monitored on an annual basis An Integrated Traffic System (ITS) project is currently underway with the aim of converting the existing automatic traffic counters to remote operation with a live data feed into the Integrated Traffic Control Centre. This will provide detailed up to date information on traffic volume and composition on a continuous basis. By 2015/16 it is anticipated that the majority of our continuous count sites will be converted to ITS operation All major highway projects undertaken by HCC provide pre/post implementation manual vehicle counts. This metric is detailed further in section 6.1 Manual Pre/post implementation counts. 5.3 Monitoring Changes in Travel Patterns - Bus Patronage (Average Number of bus passenger journeys) Bus patronage information (from HCC) Aggregate patronage figures are provided to HCC from bus operators on an annual basis. On commercial services, we may not have complete access to data disaggregated by route or time of day due to data sensitivity. The Annual Outcome Monitoring Report should at a minimum- be able to state percentage changes in patronage for those routes impacted upon through LSTF funding. Furthermore, the University of Hertfordshire owns UNO Bus Company which has an extensive bus network in the St Albans area and due 15

17 to HCC s strong ties with the university we should be able to access their more detailed information on patronage in this particular area The annual trend in bus patronage for the three urban areas in the LSTF bid area is shown in Table 5.1 below. Table 5.1: Annual Patronage figures for the LSTF area. Annual number of bus passengers In millions 2010/ /12 Hemel Hempstead St Albans Watford This data will be provided at both a district level and for those services enhanced through LSTF funding. Comparative data from pre LSTF funded enhancements and control bus patronage data from Welwyn and Stevenage will be used to consider exogenous factors Although patronage numbers will indicate changes in mode split, it will not identify the individual projects which altered travel behaviour - whether it was a personalised travel plan, smart ticketing or a number of other factors. No budget has been set for additional on-board bus surveys, which could be provided the University of Hertfordshire to look at the demographics of bus users and factors which have led to travel change The County Travel Survey (CTS) can be used to observe behavioural changes and user satisfaction, with scope for additional questions for the next survey in The CTS is detailed further in section Monitoring Changes in Travel Patterns - Cycling Prevalence Cycle count sites HCC has a network of cycle monitoring sites across the county. There are currently a number of these cycle monitoring sites within the LSTF bid area. Details of these locations are shown overleaf in Figure

18 Figure 5.2: Bicycle monitoring sites in LSTF area Trials are due to be undertaken of collecting cycle data through the ITS programme. If successful the number of cycle count sites could be increased A number of projects, such as the St Albans Green Ring and Maylands Town Centre Walking and Cycling Route are considering installing permanent cycle count sites but discussions are still on-going therefore no further details can be provided at present A risk for cycle data is that the collection sites can under-represent cycling numbers as data accuracy is still uncertain. For a project such as the St Albans Green Ring, there is no way of recording all cycling journeys, given the number of routes to be improved in St Albans and limited resources for data collection points Information regarding the number of cycle journeys undertaken can also be gathered as part of the Travelwise triennial cordon survey for the three LSTF towns, described below in section 4.7. Additional trend changes in travel behaviour within the three LSTF towns can be gathered from the triennial County Travel Survey, undertaken in 2012 and All major cycle route projects undertaken by HCC provide pre/post implementation manual cycle counts. This metric is detailed further in section 6.1 Manual Pre/post implementation counts. 5.5 Monitoring Changes in Travel Patterns Walking Journeys Pre/post implementation counts are the primary source of data for direct and attributable changes in pedestrian levels related to an individual project. The 17

19 Clarendon Road pedestrian improvement and Maylands Town centre walking/cycling route projects will be conducting these surveys. See section 6.1 Manual Pre/post implementation counts for further details Further evidence of changes in pedestrian levels will come from the Travelwise Cordon Counts and the County Travel Survey, however no attribution to individual projects will be evident from this As with cyclists, numbers of pedestrians tend to be variable due to weather impacting on the one day survey. Numbers of pedestrians also tend to be underestimated as the counts are undertaken on the key roads into the town centres rather than on footpaths and more minor routes which are more likely to be used by those travelling on foot The County Travel Survey can provide useful information on who is travelling by foot and why. It is more difficult to get an indication on changes in overall numbers because of the relatively small sample sizes involved Control data from the County Travel Survey for non-lstf districts will be used to compare the percentage of walking journeys undertaken under 1 mile. 5.6 Congestion Data Average AM peak Journey time by Mile HCC currently monitors average journey times for a measured mile on key routes into each of the three LSTF towns using DfT Trafficmaster data. This data is aggregated to create an average journey time and speed for each of the three LSTF districts. HCC routes are illustrated in Figure 5.3 overleaf (along with the average speeds in 2011). 18

20 Figure 5.3: Example - Average Am Peak Speeds Table 5.2 below shows the average journey times for the three LSTF districts and the county. Table 5.2: Average Journey times in LSTF area (Average journey time per mile [mm:ss]) 7-8am 8-9am 9-10am Town 10 /11 09/10 % change from 09/10 10 /11 09/10 % change from 09/10 10 /11 09/10 % change from 09/10 Hemel 02:53 02:50 1.8% 02:46 02:49 1.8% 02:23 02:19 2.9% Hempstead St Albans 03:39 03:35 1.9% 03:37 03:40-1.4% 02:53 02:46 4.2% Watford 03:20 03:30-4.8% 03:06 03:21-7.5% 02:40 02:44-2.4% County Total 03:00 03:01-0.6% 02:55 03:01-3.3% 02:30 02:26 2.7% ANPR cameras have also been installed in Watford as part of the ITS trial to provide live data on congestion and journey times. The camera sites are located at the beginning and end of the congestion monitoring routes used for the Trafficmaster analysis. HCC intend to roll out the ANPR monitoring system to Hemel Hempstead and St Albans during 2013/14and the data will supplement the Trafficmaster data This data is currently collected on an annual basis as part of the Annual Traffic and Transport Data Collection Report, therefore no additional 19

21 resources are needed. Continuation of this annual monitoring will assist in identifying at a district and key corridor level, the impact of the LSTF programme Congestion levels will be compared with Stevenage and Welwyn Garden City to understand the impact of exogenous factors. 5.7 Accessibility; - Total number of households that are able to access site within 20/40mins using public transport/walking, car and cycling - Households with access to a site within a reasonable time period by public transport/walking, car and cycle One of the principal objectives of the HCC LSTF fund is to improve access to key services and employment for all residents of Hertfordshire. Accessibility mapping is currently used by HCC as part of LTP annual monitoring to measure the percentage of new residential development that can access the town centre within 30 minutes by public transport. This will be continued on an annual basis as projects are completed to understand their impact on improving access To complement existing access mapping conducted as part of LTP work, DfT guidance suggests assessing the number of households with access to the town centre/ within a reasonable time. The baseline and target levels of accessibility will be monitored for each of the LSTF towns throughout the three years of implementation on an annual basis as projects are completed. 5.8 Modal split at specific sites As part of the role of the Business Travel Plan Officer appointed through LSTF funding, annual business travel plan surveys will be used to monitor mode split. The travel plan data will be used as a proxy for identifying projects that have been most effective within the locality. As it is unknown what the level of involvement from businesses will be at this point, no definitive list of data sources can be given at this point It may be possible to enhance company travel plans surveys to gain a greater evidence base of travel behaviour, demographics and research into the effectiveness of the LSTF programme. This will be unknown until engagement has taken place The triennial Travelwise cordon count data will provide mode split data for traffic entering the town centres to ascertain the effectiveness of projects although no direct correlation can be certain between projects and travel behaviour because it is a count and not a respondent survey. 5.9 Business Economic Data / Unemployment The County Council monitors the economic performance of Hertfordshire and reports on a quarterly and annual basis (metric dependent) both at a 20

22 countywide level and district level through a range of metrics and data sources. Those economic metrics which are relevant to LSTF projects are shown in Table 5.3 below. Table 5.3: Economic Data collected by HCC for BIGHERTSBIGIDEAS economic assessment Economic Indicator Working Age people on Out of Work benefits Overall Employment Rate Retail Job Vacancy Data Business Demography Frequency of data collection Quarterly Quarterly Annual Annual The data will be reported at a district level, with isolated LSOA reporting where it is deemed relevant and possible. It will be difficult to attribute changes in economic conditions to the LSTF programme based on this data alone. Only the Scoots Wheels to Work project is to record individual client circumstances and changes resulting from the scooter loan project Monitoring will take place in Stevenage and Welwyn Garden city as well to understand exogenous factors Carbon Emissions Vehicle Kilometreage Currently HCC calculates an overall vehicle count figure based on million vehicle kilometres travelled. This can also be generated for HGVs and other vehicle types and by road type. The most recent figures for the three bid authorities are shown in Table 5.4 below. Table 5.4 Example of vehicle kilometreage data District Traffic (Million VKm/day) % change All roads HCC roads All roads HCC roads Dacorum St Albans Watford* * Watford vehicle flows have been influenced by the completion of the M25 widening works although there are no motorway monitoring sites within Watford district The monitoring of kilometreage will be used in collaboration with the calculated benefits per kilometre taken from the Large Project Full Business Case (2011) and shown in Table 2.2. This data will be used with the DfT s Basic Carbon Toolkit to assess the carbon impact of changes in kilometreage in the final Evaluation Report in The data will need a comparison against authority wide levels and against the control towns of Stevenage and Welwyn Garden City AQMA Site Monitoring There are a number of AQMA sites located within Hertfordshire, including some located within the LSTF towns. Annual data will be collected from these 21

23 three towns, plus a control site within another urban area from outside of the LSTF area to compare changes in pollutant levels Attribution of projects in influencing any changes in emission levels will be difficult, therefore monitoring of AQMA sites against those outside of the LSTF bid in similar urban environments and against regional/national changes will be crucial 5.12 Non-Transport Indicators - Health and Physical Activity Data Collection Health Profiles are produced annually by the English Public Health Observatories. Health and physical activity were attributed to be a major benefit for Hertfordshire, primarily through increasing cycling and walking The appraisal impact of the LSTF projects identified 7mn PV in health benefits and therefore the use of the Health Economic Assessment Toolkit will be crucial in identifying impacts. The Toolkit will be used specifically for those projects where pre/post implementation cycle and walking counts are taking place and at an aggregate level using County Travel Survey Data and Travelwise Cordon Data in 2015/ Other key metrics that are measured at a programme level and will be collected as part of the BIGHERTSBIGIDEAS monitoring are as follows: Physically active adults Obese adults Life Expectancy This data is provided annually at a district level therefore this data can form part of the overall Outcome Monitoring process. Description of additional existing data resources available to HCC 5.13 Manual Pre/post implementation counts For all HCC key cycle, pedestrian and highway capital projects, pre/post implementation cycle and walking counts are undertaken typically three months prior to construction and three months post construction. These are used for direct monitoring of cycling/walking prevalence along the enhanced route, but will not reveal mode shift, displacement or user demographics The projects that will include pre/post implementation counts are; - A412 St Albans Road (Watford) Cycle Route Improvement - Clarendon Road (Watford) Pedestrian Route Improvement - St Albans Green Ring Cycling and Walking - Nickey Line Access Improvements Cycling and Walking Improvement - Maylands to Town Centre Walking and Cycling Route For all of the above projects there is no additional funding for continuous annual monitoring thereafter to observe any changes in cycling prevalence on an annual basis, with reliance on the County Travel Survey for longer term 22

24 assessment of cycling/walking prevalence at an aggregate level. The installation of permanent cycle count sites is being explored for some projects as a method of maintaining monitoring Data can be sensitive to seasonal conditions and therefore comparison needs to be drawn from county average statistics and data from other permanent counter sites and external data sources for routes with similar characteristics and usage Travelwise cordon counts The Travelwise survey is a triennial cordon count of all people entering and exiting the town centre, disaggregated by travel mode, for the three LSTF town centres. The surveys are staggered through the three years with St Albans and Watford due to be surveyed in the same year. Data was last collected in 2010 and the next set of surveys is due in 2013 then Hemel Hempstead was last surveyed in 2011 therefore the next survey is in The numbers of cyclists and pedestrians are also counted through the Travelwise Cordon Count programme. The limitations of this data source are that: Cordon counts are undertaken on one morning every 3 years and therefore are highly variable, with cycle numbers likely to be affected by weather. They can be used to generalise about trends in travel. Cordon counts are undertaken on key roads into town centres and therefore may miss key cycle/pedestrian flows on side roads / cycle paths / footpaths. The Travelwise surveys do not reveal anything about changes in travel behaviour as they are simply a head count. The data can be used to infer the success of particular schemes when used complementary to findings from the county travel survey and travelsmart work The schedule of Travelwise surveys may conflict with implementation timescales of projects and therefore the relevance as part of the pre/post implementation surveys may be doubtful If additional resources were available, the surveys in Hemel, St Albans and Watford could be undertaken with an increased frequency (i.e. every year) for a more comprehensive analysis County Travel Survey The County Travel Survey is a triennial travel diary survey which can provide detailed information on travel mode, purpose, frequency and distance. This provides useful information on - for example - who is travelling by bicycle and why. The data is used for the LTP Monitoring Indicators as stated in section three. It is difficult to get an indication on changes in overall numbers because of the relatively small sample sizes involved from each district. 23

25 The County Travel Survey can provide more detailed information on bus journeys by purpose, frequency and distance (from the travel diaries). This provides useful information on who is travelling by bus and why. It is more difficult to get an indication on changes in overall numbers because of the relatively small sample sizes involved In summary, patronage and bus data can be gathered at the aggregate town level for LSTF QNP programmes, increasingly as companies are equipped with smart ticket machines and vehicle location systems. Therefore patronage monitoring may be easier on some routes than others. To supplement this data source there will also be the availability of the triennial Travelwise and County Travel Survey data The County Travel Survey has scope for additional questions to be included specifically regarding the LSTF programme and its effectiveness, however it has been considered that with the next survey not taking place until 2015, LSTF questions should be based upon evidence and travel behaviour that become apparent during the LSTF implementation Maylands Business Park Annual Employee Travel Survey An annual employee travel survey has been undertaken at the Maylands Business Park since This survey is undertaken by Dacorum Borough Council as part of the Maylands on the Move programme. Discussion is underway as to the adaptation of this survey to include questions directly relating to LSTF work at Maylands. The survey takes place in October annually, therefore evidence for 2013 survey will appear in the Outcome Monitoring Report of September Project Diary Our Specialist Survey team completes an events diary as a matter of course for our existing traffic count monitoring programme. Information noted includes: School holiday & bank holiday dates Unusual weather conditions (e.g. snow) Major events (local and national) Major traffic diversions / works ( only adhoc) Reported network problems (we currently don t collect this but we could) It is suggested that the specialist survey team continue to maintain this and provide it to the LSTF team on at least an annual basis Project teams will also monitor progress made with schemes including any challenges faced during each financial year which would be relevant for future projects. This will be reported upon within the annual Output Report where applicable. 24

26 5.18 Summary Table 5.5 overleaf shows a summary of the metrics used for monitoring, including details of frequency of data collection, availability of baseline data and control sites available Appendix F to this document sets out the individual elements of the LSTF programme and how the projects will be monitored against the expected outcomes and indicators. 25