Afforestation and reforestation baseline methodology AR-AM0005

Transcription

1 CDM Execuive Board AR-AM0005 / Version 01 Secoral Scope: 14 Source Afforesaion and reforesaion baseline mehodology AR-AM0005 Afforesaion and reforesaion projec aciviies implemened for indusrial and/or commercial uses This mehodology is based on he draf CDM-AR-PDD Reforesaion as Renewable Source of Wood Supplies for Indusrial Use in Brazil whose baseline sudy, monioring and verificaion plan and projec design documen were prepared by Planar S/A - Belo Horizone, Brazil; World Bank - Carbon Finance Business, Washingon DC, US. For more informaion regarding he proposal and is consideraion by he Execuive Board please refer o case ARNM0015: Reforesaion as Renewable Source of Wood Supplies for Indusrial Use in Brazil a: hp://cdm.unfccc.in/mehodologies/armehodologies/publicview.hml?openround=7&opennm= ARNM0015&cases=B#ARNM0015. Secion I. Summary and applicabiliy of he baseline and monioring mehodologies 1. Seleced baseline approach from paragraph 22 of he CDM A/R modaliies and procedures Changes in carbon socks in he pools wihin he projec boundary from he mos likely land use a he ime he projec sars 2. Applicabiliy This mehodology is applicable o he following caegories of projec aciviies: Afforesaion or reforesaion aciviies underaken o mee commercial or indusrial needs on grasslands ha are unmanaged or under exensive managemen, wih low soil carbon conen (compared o he expeced soil carbon conen under he projec aciviy) because of soil degradaion, or because climao-edaphic condiions naurally lead o hin, inferile soils wih low carbon conen. This mehodology anicipaes wo possible baseline scenarios: 1. Mainenance of he presen land uses as unmanaged exensively managed grassland, and 2. Afforesaion or reforesaion aciviy underaken inermienly in small amouns in he periods prior o he A/R CDM projec aciviy; The condiions under which his mehodology is applicable o A/R CDM projec aciviies are: Land cover wihin he projec boundary is in seady sae eiher as unmanaged or exensively managed grassland; Lands will be afforesed or reforesed by direc planing and/or seeding; Naural regeneraion is no expeced o occur in he projec area because of he absence of seed sources or because land use pracices do no permi he esablishmen of ree vegeaion; Carbon socks in soil organic maer, lier and deadwood can be expeced o decrease more or increase less in he absence of he projec aciviy during he ime frame ha coincides wih he crediing period of he projec aciviy, relaive o he baseline scenario. Lower soil carbon under grassland compared o planaions or secondary foress can be expeced under 1

2 CDM Execuive Board AR-AM0005 / Version 01 Secoral Scope: 14 ropical condiions 1 ; i canno necessarily be expeced under non-ropical condiions 2 ; evidence has o be provided ha he exclusion of soil organic carbon is conservaive for he projec case hrough, e.g. represenaive scienific lieraure; Grazing will no occur wihin he projec boundary once he projec commences; he oal number of grazing animals is no increased compared o he pre-projec condiions and hus non-co 2 emissions from displaced livesock are no accouned as leakage in accordance wih decision EB22, Annex 15, iem 1.b 3. To es his applicabiliy condiion, evidence shall be provided ha he oal number of animals is no increased as a consequence of he projec aciviy (e.g. wih records from slaughering); poenial effecs on carbon pools ouside he projec boundary are accouned for as leakage from aciviy displacemen; Flooding irrigaion is no permied; Soil drainage and disurbance are insignifican, so ha non CO 2 -greenhouse gas emissions from his hese ypes of aciviies can be negleced; The amoun of nirogen-fixing species (NFS) used in he A/R CDM projec aciviy is no significan, so ha greenhouse gas emissions from denirificaion can be negleced in he esimaion of acual ne greenhouse gas removals by sinks; A Geographical Informaion Sysem (GIS) is required for he managemen of spaial daa (e.g. for (ex-pos) sraificaion). This mehodology is no applicable in projec siuaions Pre-projec aciviies such as grazing canno be concepually linked o households ha are shifed from he projec area; his excludes explicily he use of his mehodology where he animals ha are grazing under pre-projec condiions, are parly or enirely owned by he projec eniy (which possibly would no be considered o shif is household ) Seleced carbon pools: Table I.1: Selecion and jusificaion of carbon pools Carbon Pools Seleced (answer Jusificaion / Explanaion wih yes or no) Above ground Yes Major carbon pool subjeced o he projec aciviy Below ground Yes Major carbon pool subjeced o he projec aciviy Dead wood No Conservaive approach under applicabiliy condiion Lier No Conservaive approach under applicabiliy condiion 1 Desjardins T, Andreux F, Vokoff B, Cerri CC (1994): Organic carbon and 13 C conens in soils and soil size-fracions, and heir changes due o deforesaion and pasure insallaion in easern Amazonia. Geoderma 61, Dewiler RP (1986): Land use change and he global carbon cycle: he role of ropical soils. Biogeochemisry 2, Fearnside PM, Barbosa RI (1998): Soil carbon changes from conservaion of fores o pasure in Brazilian Amazonia. Fores Ecology and Managemen 108, Guo LB, Gifford R, M, (2002): Soil carbon socks and land use change: a mea analysis. Global Change Biology 8, As per 1 (b) of Annex 15 EB22, (hp://cdm.unfccc.in/eb/meeings/022/eb22 repan15.pdf), he pre-projec GHG emissions by sources which are displaced ouside he projec boundary in order o enable an A/R projec aciviy under he CDM shall no be included under leakage if he displacemen does no increase hese emissions wih respec o he pre-projec condiions. 4 This limiaion is due o he fac ha he uni for he assessmen of leakage due o aciviy displacemen is a household. 2

3 CDM Execuive Board AR-AM0005 / Version 01 Secoral Scope: 14 Soil organic carbon No Conservaive approach under applicabiliy condiion 4. Summary of baseline and monioring mehodologies This baseline mehodology oulines ransparen and conservaive mehods o esimae he ne anhropogenic GHG removals by sinks resuling from A/R CDM projec aciviies implemened o mee he demand for wood for indusrial use (e.g., charcoal producion for indusrial uses ec.) and/or commercial use (e.g., furniure making, consrucion maerials ec.). The mehodology can be used as sand-alone or in conjuncion wih oher mehodologies ha have provisions o accoun for he end-uses of he biomass from A/R CDM projec aciviies ha are proposed o reduce GHG emissions. This mehodology provides for he esimaion of changes in carbon sock in seleced carbon pools of A/R CDM projec aciviies implemened on unmanaged or exensively managed grasslands. I accouns for carbon sock changes in he living biomass (above- and below-ground biomass) in he esimaion of baseline ne GHG removals by sinks and acual ne GHG removals by sinks. The exclusion of deadwood, lier, and soil organic carbon is conservaive considering he ne increases in he carbon accumulaed in hese pools over he crediing period, relaive o he baseline scenario. I conservaively draws he baseline scenario(s) from amongs he plausible scenarios, and presens mehods o ransparenly esimae he carbon sock changes expeced from he mos likely land use(s) prior o he sar of he A/R CDM projec aciviy. The mehodology adops baseline approach 22(c) - changes in carbon socks in he pools wihin he projec boundary from he mos likely land use a he ime he projec sars, aking ino accoun naional, secor, and local policies influencing he land use prior o he sar of he A/R CDM projec aciviy, he scope of projec alernaives relaive o he baseline; and barriers o implemen he A/R CDM projec aciviy. This mehodology anicipaes wo possible baseline scenarios: (1) mainenance of he presen land uses as unmanaged or exensively managed grassland, and (2) afforesaion or reforesaion aciviy underaken inermienly in small amouns in he periods prior o he A/R CDM projec aciviy. I uses he laes version of he Tool for he Demonsraion and Assessmen of Addiionaliy for Afforesaion and Reforesaion CDM Projec Aciviies 5. The monioring mehodology oulines mehods o monior carbon sock changes in he living biomass of A/R CDM projec aciviies and increases in he GHG emissions ha resul from he implemenaion of he A/R CDM projec aciviy. I oulines mehods and procedures ha complemen he provisions of he baseline mehodology. I assumes ha he A/R CDM projec aciviies are implemened on unmanaged or exensively managed grassland. As per his mehodology, he baseline scenario is idenified and quanified ex-ane a he beginning of he A/R CDM projec aciviy and will hold hroughou he crediing period and does no require monioring. The mehodology oulines mehods for assessing and accouning leakage from fossil fuels used in he projec relaed ravel underaken ouside he projec boundary and displacemen of economic aciviies aribuable o he A/R CDM projec aciviy. The mehodology recommends he use of field-based invenory mehods and, depending on availabiliy, remoely sensed daa o monior he implemenaion of he A/R CDM projec aciviy. The mehodology sraifies he projec area based on climae, vegeaion, and ree species and/or years of planing wih he aid of land use/cover maps, remoe sensing imagery, and/or field survey daa. The mehodology uses permanen sample plos o monior he carbon sock changes in he living biomass in order o achieve he accuracy of ±10% of he mean a he 95% confidence level. 5 Available a hp://cdm.unfccc.in/mehodologies/armehodologies/approved_ar.hml. 3

4 CDM Execuive Board AR-AM0005 / Version 01 Secoral Scope: 14 The plos shall be laid ou in a way ha faciliaes easy locaion and ensures consisen monioring over ime, bu are physically invisible o avoid preferenial reamen. The mehodology specifies a monioring frequency of 5 year inervals. In addiion o monioring he living biomass a successive monioring inervals, i suppors he recording of disurbances, if any. I recommends he adopion of sandard operaing procedures for monioring, daa collecion, and archival, in order o mainain he inegriy of he daa colleced in he monioring process. Baseline mehodology seps: The baseline mehodology is srucured ino he following seps: 1. Delineaion of projec boundary: The land parcels included in he A/R projec shall be delineaed wih a clearly raceable projec boundary. Land eligibiliy is assessed applying sronger crieria han required by he CDM modaliies and procedures. 2. Selecion of carbon pools: The mehodology provides for esimaion of carbon sock changes in he living (above- and below-ground) biomass pools of A/R CDM projec aciviies implemened on unmanaged or exensively managed grasslands. The exclusion of deadwood, lier, and soil organic carbon is conservaive considering he ne increase in carbon accumulaed in hese pools over he crediing period, in comparison o he baseline scenario. 3. Sraificaion: Sraificaion of he A/R CDM projec area is underaken based on daa and informaion colleced from he mos recen land-use/land-cover maps, soil maps, vegeaion maps and supplemenary informaion on he baseline land-use/land-cover deermined for each sraum. For he ex ane sraificaion of he projec area, variables relaed o sie qualiy, species and heir silviculural characerisics, year of planing and sand level managemen crieria are aken ino accoun. 4. Assessmen of baseline scenario: The mehodology oulines procedures o selec he baseline from amongs he plausible scenarios and evaluaes land-use/land-cover of he baseline sraa in order o esimae carbon sock changes expeced under he mos likely land-use a he ime he projec sars. The mehodology anicipaes wo possible scenarios in he baseline: (1) land use as an unmanaged or exensively managed grassland; and (2) afforesaion or reforesaion aciviy underaken as in small amouns in he period preceding he A/R CDM projec. The mehodology adops he baseline approach 22(c) - changes in carbon socks in he pools wihin he projec boundary from he mos likely land-use a he ime he projec sars aking ino accoun naional, secor, and local policies influencing he land-use prior o he sar of he A/R CDM projec and plausible land-use alernaives and barriers o implemenaion of he projec aciviy. 5. Esimaion of he baseline ne GHG removals by sinks: For grassland sraa wih herbaceous and non-woody vegeaion, he mehodology assumes he carbon sock in he baseline o remain consan in a low seady sae, i.e., he baseline ne GHG removals by sinks is zero. For sraa wih isolaed rees and shrub vegeaion, changes in carbon socks of living biomass pools are esimaed using he IPCC Good Pracice Guidance for Land Use, Land Use Change and Foresry (GPG/LULUCF) (IPCC 2003). 6. Demonsraion of Addiionaliy: The laes version of he Tool for he Demonsraion and Assessmen of Addiionaliy for Afforesaion and Reforesaion CDM Projec Aciviies 6 approved by he CDM Execuive Board is used o es he addiionaliy of he projec. 6 hp://cdm.unfccc.in/eb/021/eb21repan16.pdf 4

5 CDM Execuive Board AR-AM0005 / Version 01 Secoral Scope: Ex ane esimaion of he acual ne GHG removals by sinks: The ex ane acual ne GHG removals by sinks of sands esablished under he A/R CDM projec aciviy are esimaed using locally available allomeric equaions or yield models, aking ino accoun he silviculural managemen of he species included in he projec. The increase in projec emissions from fossil fuel consumpion in he planaion aciviies, sie preparaion, naural or anhropogenic biomass burning, and ferilizaion are esimaed following he guidance oulined in GPG/LULUCF (IPCC 2003). 8. Leakage: The increase in GHG emissions ouside he projec boundary is accouned, which is associaed wih emissions from fossil fuels used in he ranspor of saff, producs and services, and displacemen of pre-projec land-use ha leads o loss of vegeaion and collecion of fuelwood o areas ouside he projec s boundary. 9. Ex ane esimaion of he ne anhropogenic GHG removals by sinks: The mehodology esimaes he ne anhropogenic GHG removals by sinks according o he relevan provisions in he modaliies and procedures for A/R CDM projecs. The mehodology can be used sand alone or in conjuncion wih oher mehodologies ha provide provisions for he end-use of he producs from an A/R CDM projec aciviy ha resul in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reducions. To avoid double-couning of emission sources in a projec aciviy, which has boh A/R and non-a/r componens, emissions associaed wih A/R aciviies should be accouned for in he A/R projec aciviy. In general all projec aciviies using biomass for energy should accoun for emissions associaed wih producion of biomass. However, in he case ha i can be demonsraed ha for a projec aciviy using biomass for energy, which uses biomass originaing from a regisered A/R projec aciviy (i.e. hrough conracual agreemen for procuremen of biomass) i need no accoun for emission relaed o biomass producion (EB 25 meeing repor, para. 38); Monioring mehodology seps: The monioring mehodology is srucured ino he following seps: 1. Monioring of he projec boundary and fores esablishmen: This mehodology oulines procedures o idenify land parcels included in he projec using field surveys and GPS mehods and recording informaion on he projec boundary. The mehodology requess he use of field-based invenory mehods and GPS daa o verify consisency of he delineaed projec boundary of he parcels included in he projec. The monioring procedures cover informaion relaed o sie preparaion, species o be planed, and layou of planing adoped as per he managemen plan. The variables ha influence he esablishmen of fores and he acual ne GHG removals by sinks of he CDM-A/R projec aciviy are aken ino accoun as par of he procedures for monioring of he fores esablishmen. 2. Ex pos sraificaion of projec area for monioring: The ex pos sraificaion considers monioring of he projec sraa o verify he applicabiliy of he ex ane sraificaion, and variables ha influence he sraa and esablishmen of he fores sands. The sample frame of he mehodology specifies he number of permanen sample plos o be seleced o monior he carbon sock changes in living biomass in order o achieve an accuracy of ±10% in he mean a 95% confidence level. The ex-pos sraificaion procedures faciliae cos-effecive, consisen and accurae monioring of carbon sock changes of he projec during he crediing period. 5

6 CDM Execuive Board AR-AM0005 / Version 01 Secoral Scope: Absence of baseline monioring: The mehodology prescribes validiy of he baseline idenified ex ane a he sar of he A/R CDM projec aciviy for he crediing period, hereby avoids he need for monioring of he baseline over he crediing period, and achieves savings in he coss associaed wih baseline monioring. 4. Calculaion of he acual ne GHG removals by sinks: The mehodology provides for calculaion of he acual ne GHG removals by sinks from he projec, using daa on carbon socks changes from he permanen sample plos, and he daa on emissions from fossil fuel consumpion, sie preparaion, burning of biomass and applicaion of ferilizers in he projec. The mehods from Good Pracice Guidance for Land use, Land Use Change and Foresry (GPG/LULUCF) (IPCC 2003) and he laes EB guidance are used in calculaing he acual ne GHG removals by sinks. 5. Monioring leakage: Emissions relaed o saff ravel ouside he projec boundary and displacemen of economic aciviies from he projec boundary o areas ouside i, such as conversion of land o oher uses and collecion of fuelwood, are moniored and accouned in order o calculae he ne anhropogenic GHG removals by sinks. 6. Qualiy Assurance (QA)/Qualiy Conrol (QC): The QA/QC guidelines proposed as par of he monioring plan verify he accuracy and consisency of field measuremens and ensure he inegriy of daa collecion, managemen of projec daabases and he daabase archival during he crediing period. Secion II. Baseline mehodology descripion 1. Projec boundary Projec paricipans shall define he projec boundary a he beginning of a proposed A/R CDM projec aciviy and shall provide he geographical coordinaes of lands o be afforesed or reforesed, so as o allow clear idenificaion for he purpose of verificaion. The remoely sensed daa 7 wih adequae spaial resoluion, officially cerified opographic maps, land adminisraion and enure records, and/or oher official documenaion ha faciliaes he clear delineaion of he projec boundary can be used. The daa shall be geo-referenced, and preferably provided in digial forma. In he absence of requisie daa and documenaion, field surveys shall be underaken o delineae he projec boundary. Table II.1: Gaseous emissions from sources oher han hose resuling from changes in carbon pools Source Gas Included/ Jusificaion / Explanaion excluded Combusion of CO 2 Included fossil fuels, e.g., CH 4 Excluded Poenial emission is negligibly small on-sie and/or offsie use of vehicles N 2O Excluded Poenial emission is negligibly small CO 2 Included Biomass burning CH 4 Included (Fires) N 2 O Included Use of ferilizers CO 2 Excluded No applicable CH 4 Excluded No applicable 7 Remoely sensed daa includes daa acquired from earh observaion saellies or aerial phoographs. 6

7 CDM Execuive Board AR-AM0005 / Version 01 Secoral Scope: 14 N 2 O Included Removal of preexising CO 2 Included non-ree CH 4 Excluded No applicable vegeaion N 2 O Excluded No applicable The definiion of he projec boundary is an ieraive process and depends on he resul of furher elemens of he baseline mehodology, e.g. on he es of eligibiliy of lands in Secion II.2. The emission sources and gases likely o be emied from he implemenaion of he proposed A/R CDM projec aciviy are lised in he Table II Eligibiliy of land Eligibiliy of he A/R CDM projec aciviies under Aricle 12 of he Kyoo Proocol shall be demonsraed based on definiions provided in paragraph 1 of he annex o he Decision 16/CMP.1 ( Land use, land-use change and foresry ), as requesed by Decision 5/CMP.1 ( Modaliies and procedures for afforesaion and reforesaion projec aciviies under he clean developmen mechanism in he firs commimen period of he Kyoo Proocol ), unil new procedures o demonsrae he eligibiliy of lands for afforesaion and reforesaion projec aciviies under he clean developmen mechanism are recommended by he EB. 3. Ex-ane sraificaion This mehodology recommends a hierarchical approach o sraificaion. The facors relevan a he regional scale, such as climae, opography or geographical condiions, should be considered on prioriy followed by he nex level of variables in he hierarchy for he purpose of idenifying he sraa. The minimum coniguous area for sraum or a par of i ha represens more han one disconinuous parcel should be equal o he minimum area defined for a fores by he DNA of he hos counry. The seps o be followed in he ex ane sraificaion are oulined below. Sep 1: Sraificaion aking ino accoun pre-exising condiions and likely evoluion of baseline. The baseline sraa should be idenified using he following crieria ha consider he pre-exising condiions and expeced evoluion of baseline scenario: The variables influencing carbon sock changes in above-ground and below-ground biomass pools shall be idenified. Such variables could include climae, soil, opography, vegeaion ype, anhropogenic pressure ec. I is preferable o rank he variables so ha sraificaion akes ino accoun he variables ha are specific o he baseline land use of he grasslands included in he projec. The baseline informaion reflecing he saus of grassland shall be colleced from he mos recen land use/cover maps, saellie images, soil and vegeaion maps, and sie informaion from published lieraure or local sudies in order o idenify mos relevan sraificaion crieria. Daa on pre-exising condiions of he grassland in erms of is vegeaion and composiion shall be colleced in order o demonsrae he mainenance of grassland in is sae in he absence of implemenaion of he A/R CDM projec. Informaion on pre-projec saus of grassland shall be colleced from he official daa sources, land-use maps and field surveys. The projec eniy shall demonsrae he saus of grassland such as wheher he grassland was an unmanaged grassland or was managed as exensive grassland by providing relevan informaion on he land-use; 7

8 CDM Execuive Board AR-AM0005 / Version 01 Secoral Scope: 14 Daa on he pre-exising condiions of grassland and on he pre-projec use of grassland shall be used o idenify characerisic feaures ha can be used in idenifying he preliminary sraa of he grassland. The specific feaures of he sraum levels should be idenified in order o complemen he informaion on he sraa idenified under preliminary sraificaion. Such characerisics could include; The ype of grassland vegeaion, herbaceous vegeaion, caegories of shrub species and heir growh characerisics such as diameer a he base (DBS) and heigh, and presence of isolaed ree species, if any, and he characerisics of such vegeaion; Informaion on land enure ha reflecs he naure of pas managemen of grassland; Naure and exen of pas changes in he grassland vegeaion in order o demonsrae he mainenance of grassland in is sae or evidence demonsraing he seady sae or he propensiy o reach seady sae in he near fuure; Sie characerisics ha influence he evoluion of he grassland, such as slope, gradien, soil ype, soil deph, ec.; Differences in he sraa demonsraing he occurrence of grassland areas in seady sae and/or under exensive managemen and/or in a degraded sae and/or wih isolaed vegeaion ha is expeced o remain in such saes in he fuure. If he analysis of preliminary sraa reflecs significan variaion wihin he sraa, aking ino accoun specific characerisics of he sraum levels, furher sraificaion should be underaken based on more specific crieria in order o improve heir disincness. For highly variable landscapes, i is recommended o carry ou sysemaic sampling in order o deermine he percenage of projec area wih specific ype of land use in each sraum. Based on he sraificaion crieria, sraa are idenified and heir respecive areas are esimaed. Furhermore, dominan species of grassland vegeaion should be considered as he basis o esimae he carbon sock changes under he baseline. Sep 2: Crieria of sraificaion o be considered in he proposed CDM A/R projec aciviy: i) The species and sand level characerisics of he projec should be specified aking ino accoun he following crieria: Species or species ypes ha represen mix of species o be planed on a sie wihin he same planing year shall be considered o represen a sand; The growh characerisics of species or species ypes represening mix of species wih similar characerisics shall be specified; ii) Silviculural regime of species, such as planing, ending, hinning, harvesing, coppicing, and replaning cycle, shall be aken ino accoun by specifying: The age class a which he managemen aciviies are proposed o be implemened; The ype and quaniy of ferilizer planned o be applied; The volume of wood ha is proposed o be hinned or harvesed; The roaion cycle or he coppicing cycle adoped iii) The emporal and spaial informaion on he planaion esablishmen shall be specified by adoping: The planing dae; The area o be planed (ha); The geographical locaion of he planaion sie and sands proposed o be raised on he sie should be idenified and represened as he coordinaes of polygons. 8

9 CDM Execuive Board AR-AM0005 / Version 01 Secoral Scope: 14 iv) The facors affecing acual ne GHG removals by sinks should be refleced in he sraificaion. In order o mainain he opimal number of sraa, he lands similar socking levels and similar growh paerns could be included in a sraum and managemen facors such as hinning, harvesing and replaning, ha may no warran separae sraum levels could be kep ou of he sraificaion crieria. Sep 3: Ex ane sraificaion of A/R CDM projec aciviy aking ino accoun he sraificaion crieria and land use wihin he projec boundary. As par of he ex ane sraificaion, he boundary of each sraum should be delineaed using land-use maps or geo-referenced daa. As per he availabiliy, daa from remoe sensing and global posiioning sysems should also be included. The projec boundary shall be consisen wih he parcels idenified under he projec. Sep 4: Preparaion of ex ane sraificaion map. A sraificaion map showing differen sraa and heir characerisic feaures should be prepared. The sraificaion should also include informaion peraining o he sub-sraa. If GIS sysems are available i is good pracice o presen he overlays of GIS informaion on he ex-ane sraificaion map. Sep 5: The changes o he A/R projec afer he adopion of ex ane sraificaion shall be recorded The relevan changes ha occur o he projec aciviy implemenaion afer he ex ane sraificaion shall be recorded so ha hese could be aken ino accoun during he ex pos sraificaion a he monioring sage of he projec. The use of GIS overlays on he sraificaion maps faciliae he represenaion of changes o he ex ane sraificaion during he ex pos sraificaion and spaial represened on he sraificaion map. 4. Procedure for selecion of mos plausible baseline scenario The baseline scenario shall be deermined hrough a sequence of seps, which reflec he changes in carbon socks in above-ground biomass from he mos likely land use a he ime he projec sars, in a ransparen and conservaive manner. The following seps shall be followed in selecing he baseline scenario: Sep 1: Demonsraion of he mos likely land use a he ime he projec sars Demonsrae ha as per he land eligibiliy esablished in Secion II.2, he scenario anicipaed for lands proposed under he projec would remain under he exising grassland use ha is expeced o coninue in he absence of he projec aciviy. This can be done in a leas one of he following ways: Generally: By demonsraing ha similar lands, in he viciniy, are under similar use and are no expeced o be used for alernaive land uses. The financial and/or oher barriers, which preven alernaive land uses can be idenified; Specifically for a fores as alernaive land use: Apply sep 2 (invesmen analysis) or sep 3 (barrier analysis) of he A/R Tool for he demonsraion and assessmen of addiionaliy, o demonsrae ha his land use, in absence of he CDM, is unaracive, and ha land pressures preven he possibiliy of land being abandoned o naural fores regrowh; 9

10 CDM Execuive Board AR-AM0005 / Version 01 Secoral Scope: 14 Specifically, for oher alernaive land uses: Use sep 2 (invesmen analysis) or sep 3 (barrier analysis) of he A/R Tool for he demonsraion and assessmen of addiionaliy o demonsrae ha alernaive agriculural land uses would no occur in he absence of projec aciviies This analysis should use muliple sources of daa including archives, maps and/or saellie images of land use/cover around 1990 and before he sar of he proposed A/R CDM projec aciviy, supplemenary field invesigaion, landowner inerviews, as well as collecion of daa from oher sources. Sep 2: Assessmen of naional and secor policies and legislaion In order o adequaely reflec he impacs of prevailing policies, projec paricipans shall make an assessmen of he relevan naional or secor policies. a) Policies relaed o he creaion of wood sources Naional or secor polices ha have a direc influence on land use in he conex of he A/R CDM projec aciviy mus be considered. Projec paricipans mus analyze he applicable policy incenives and consrains. As a general principle, naional and/or secoral policies and circumsances are o be aken ino accoun on he esablishmen of a baseline scenario, wihou creaing perverse incenives ha may impac hos Paries conribuions o he ulimae objecive of he Convenion. Naional and/or secoral land-use policies or regulaions, which give comparaive advanages o afforesaion/reforesaion aciviies and ha have been implemened since he adopion by he COP of he CDM M&P (decision 17/CP.7, 11 November 2001), need no be aken ino accoun in developing a baseline scenario (i.e. he baseline scenario could refer o a hypoheical siuaion wihou he naional and/or secoral policies or regulaions being in place) (EB 23, annex 19). Special aenion shall be devoed o hisorical and/or prevailing land use and indusrial policies, including incenives, subsidies, axes and oher fiscal and policy measures ha influence he land use and he end use of he biomass from he afforesaion /reforesaion aciviies. In case he A/R aciviy is affeced by he policies in he compeing indusries or commercial enduses, he policy analysis should evaluae he backward and forward linkages among he relevan secors in order o demonsrae he addiionaliy. The projec paricipans shall idenify and analyze specific policy conexs ha had implicaions for A/R aciviies in he pas or expeced o have in he fuure. b) Legislaion relaed o he requiremens of A/R aciviies and wood use Projec paricipans shall make an assessmen of he impacs of prevailing legislaion (federal, sae, local) on he A/R aciviies, including he mandaory requiremens on he land uses. The role of regulaion and is enforcemen is paricularly relevan as he lack of effecive regulaion on he use of naural foress as biomass sources will effecively limi he incenives for implemening he A/R aciviies. In cases where widespread non-compliance is observed, evidence on he non-compliance shall be presened. An analysis of he naional policies and regulaions relaed o naural foress and A/R aciviies, and heir implicaions in erms of demand and supply of fores producs and he impacs on he exising and fuure land uses shall be presened. c) Oher policy incenives and consrains 10

11 CDM Execuive Board AR-AM0005 / Version 01 Secoral Scope: 14 The macroeconomic and secor policies relaed o credi, markeing, and echnology shall be evaluaed in order o assess he influence of muli-secor policies on he land use for foresry. Sep 3: Assessmen of demand and supply of wood resources for indusrial and commercial purposes The analysis of demand and supply balance of wood sources for indusrial and commercial purposes shall be done, aking ino accoun he facors influencing he A/R aciviies (e.g. end-uses of wood from he planaions). The impac of incenives and consrains in he land use for planaion aciviy shall be aken ino accoun. I is good pracice o use long-erm daa o idenify he land use and planaion esablishmen rends, in order o demonsrae he demand-supply balance / imbalance, i.e. supply shorages or consrains in he susainabiliy of wood producion and supply. Sep 4 Assessmen of land-use pracices and prevailing land uses in he projec region Projec paricipans shall make an assessmen of he previous land uses in he region and he projec area, and he managemen pracices ha are likely o impac he carbon socks of he prevailing land uses now and in he fuure. The impac of policies and regulaions shall be assessed o guide he choice of he mos likely land uses. If applicable, projec paricipans should explain how he incenives and consrains idenified in Sep 2, impac on land uses wihin he projec area. In case of he pre-projec A/R aciviies ha occurred in he absence of he proposed A/R CDM projec aciviy, projec paricipans mus provide an esimae of he average regional and projec eniy-specific annual raes of A/R aciviies in he absence of he proposed A/R CDM projec aciviy, so ha i is considered wihin he lising of plausible land-use alernaives in Sep 5. If he pas policies resuled in an impac in erms of he implemenaion of he pre-projec A/R in he region of he projec area, he A/R aciviies aribuable o hese policies shall be considered as par of he baseline via he hisorical rae of afforesaion/reforesaion. The deerminaion of such an average regional and projec-eniy specific annual pre-projec A/R raes mus be esablished by means of hisorical daa aking ino accoun EB guidance on he consideraion of naional and secoral policies (e.g. EB 23, annex 19) in accordance wih he relevan incenives or consrains applicable o he pre-projec A/R aciviies in he region of he projec area and applicable o he projec eniy (e.g. impac of major policies idenified in Sep 2 such as he regulaory framework, suspension of previously applicable incenives, ec.). The region considered for he deerminaion of he average regional annual pre-projec A/R rae should conain he area wih he same biophysical and socio-economic precondiions as he projec area, including he projec area. If regional daa is no available or no reflecing secoral condiions, average annual rae of preprojec A/R underaken a he naional level should be seleced and adequae evidence be provided o jusify his choice. The analysis shall focus on he rae of A/R aciviies ha is likely o occur in he absence of he A/R CDM projec aciviy; he deerminaion of such an average annual A/R rae mus be esablished by means of verifiable daa and suppored by he reasons for he rends in he land uses. To provide conservaive esimaes, he average regional and projec-eniy specific annual pre-projec A/R raes shall be compared and he higher one shall be seleced as he baseline A/R rae. Sep 5: Idenificaion of plausible and credible land-use alernaives The idenificaion of plausible and credible land-use alernaives shall be based on he scope of mainaining curren land use, including he possibiliy of underaking A/R as per he applicable rends shall be considered. If here are no specific geographic rends in he pre-projec A/R aciviies, hey 11

12 CDM Execuive Board AR-AM0005 / Version 01 Secoral Scope: 14 are assumed o be applicable o all sraa in proporion o he area of a sraum. Therefore, he proporion of projec parcels of each sraum ha are likely o be affeced by he policies adoped prior o November 11, 2001 shall be assessed. In doing so, land records, field surveys, daa and feedback from sakeholders, and oher appropriae sources shall be used. Sep 6: Idenificaion of he mos likely land-use Idenificaion of he mos likely land-use from among he alernaives lised in he projec boundary a he sar of he A/R CDM projec shall be idenified as he baseline scenario. Accordingly, he seps oulined for he deerminaion of he baseline ne GHG removals by sinks in Secion II.5 could be adoped consisen wih he baseline approach 22(c). For each baseline sraum he mos likely land-use alernaive a he ime he projec sars from among he plausible land-use alernaives shall be idenified. Furhermore, i should be demonsraed ha in absence of he proposed CDM-A/R projec aciviy, he mos likely land-use would correspond o a plausible scenario ha represens he grassland. 5. Esimaion of baseline ne GHG removals by sinks This mehodology oulines mehods o esimae he changes in carbon socks in he living biomass of unmanaged or exensively managed grassland, and he evoluion of hese changes in he absence of he A/R CDM projec aciviy. The mehods and algorihms used in assessing he baseline are oulined below. If more han one caegory of land is anicipaed in he baseline scenario (e.g., par of he land wihin he projec scenario is expeced o be under he exising land use, whereas oher pars of he land uses are subjeced o afforesaion/reforesaion a a pre-projec rae ha is significanly smaller han he area ha can be afforesed/reforesed under he projec scenario), he projec paricipans shall sraify he lands under he baseline as per he likely land use or combinaions of lands uses in he baseline, as per Sep 6 of he Secion II.4 above. This mehodology foresees wo caegories of land uses in he baseline scenario: mainenance of grassland in is presen sae; and he afforesaion/reforesaion implemened a a specified pre-projec rae or a combinaion of boh. Therefore, he baseline ne GHG removals by sinks for he baseline scenario of he mainenance of grassland in is sae, and he pre-projec A/R aciviies ha are likely o occur during he crediing period are represened as follows. (B.1) C BSL, = CGLB, + C ARB, C BSL, = sum of carbon sock changes in living biomass of grassland (above and belowground biomass) under he baseline scenario; onnes CO 2 yr -1 in year = sum of carbon sock changes in he living biomass of grassland (above and below- C GLB, ground biomass) under he baseline scenario - mainenance of grassland in is sae; onnes CO 2 yr -1 in year = he sum of carbon sock changes in living biomass of rees, under he baseline sce- C ARB, nario wih A/R aciviies implemened during he pre-projec period; onnes CO 2 yr -1 in year = ranges from 1 o lengh of he crediing period (1) Mainenance of grassland in is sae 12

13 CDM Execuive Board AR-AM0005 / Version 01 Secoral Scope: 14 The mainenance of unmanaged or exensively managed grassland occurs in he absence of seed sources wihin he projec boundary or due o curren land use pracices prevening he regeneraion of foress. Furher on, he projec land areas have low demand from compeing land uses. Projec paricipans shall sraify he grasslands by heir condiion and managemen regimes o allow a more precise esimaion of expeced ne carbon sock change in he pools considered. I mus be noed ha he sock changes in he living biomass occurs primarily in he early years of grasslands. Afer his period, he biomass of grassland ends o achieve a seady sae wih limied expeced changes in he foreseeable fuure, unless he grasslands are subjeced o furher changes in heir managemen. Under he baseline scenario, mainenance of grassland in is sae, he carbon pools considered in his mehodology are assumed o be in seady sae. Hence, he sum of he carbon sock changes of he living biomass in he grassland, for any year, is considered o be zero, as indicaed in equaion below. C GLB, = 0 (B.2) C GLB, = sum of carbon sock changes in he living biomass of grassland (above and belowground biomass) under he baseline scenario - mainenance of grassland in is sae; onnes CO 2 yr -1 in year For areas wih isolaed rees, he changes in carbon socks of he living biomass for isolaed rees shall be esimaed and he baseline ne GHG removals by sinks shall be represened as follows: (B.3) C GLB, = Cijk,, ETB C GLB, = sum of carbon sock changes in he living biomass of grassland (above and belowground biomass) under he baseline scenario - mainenance of grassland in is sae; onnes CO 2 yr -1 in year = sum of annual changes in he carbon socks of living biomass (above- and below- C ijk,, ETB ground) of pre-exising rees in sraum i, subsraum j, species k; CO 2 yr -1, using mehods described in he sep 5 of Secion II.5.(2) below. The sum of changes in he living biomass esimaed as par of he baseline sudy prior o he projec shall be frozen and adoped as he baseline o represen he scenario in he absence of he projec. (2) A/R implemened during he pre-projec period The changes in carbon sock in he living biomass expeced from he annual rae of A/R aciviies underaken during he pre-projec, which is expeced o occur in he fuure shall be included as par of he baseline before he ex-ane baseline is adoped under he baseline approach 22(c), and frozen for he crediing period. Accordingly, he following seps shall be adoped: Sep 1: Deermine he applicable A/R rae as oulined in Secion II.4, sep 4. 13

14 CDM Execuive Board AR-AM0005 / Version 01 Secoral Scope: 14 Sep 2: The projec paricipans shall use he percenage of land area corresponding o he average annual pre-projec A/R underaken for he purpose of indusrial/commercial secor a he regional level. Sep 3: To esimae he baseline carbon sock changes from he pre-projec A/R aciviies, he species composiion of he pre-projec A/R aciviies shall be evaluaed. Sep 4: Esimae he carbon sock changes of pre-projec A/R aciviies underaken as par of he baseline, as below: I J C ARB, = C ARB, ij, (B.4) i= 1 j= 1 = sum of carbon sock changes in living biomass of rees, under he baseline scenario C ARB, wih A/R aciviies implemened during he pre-projec period; onnes CO 2 yr -1 in year = average annual change in carbon sock in he living biomass of rees for sraum i, i j C ARB, ij, species j under he baseline scenario wih A/R aciviies implemened during he pre-projec period; onnes CO 2 yr -1 in year = sraum i (I = oal number of sraa) = species j (J = oal number of species) The following wo generic mehods are used o esimae he changes in carbon sock in living biomass of rees. Mehod 1: Carbon gain-loss mehod 8 (B.5) C ARB, ij, = C ARB, G, ij, C ARB, L, ij, = average annual change in carbon sock in he living biomass of rees for sraum i, C ARB, ij, species j under he baseline scenario wih A/R aciviies implemened during he pre-projec period; onnes CO 2 yr -1 in year = average annual increase in carbon sock due o biomass growh of living rees for C ARB, G, ij, C ARB, L, ij, sraum i, species j under he baseline scenario wih A/R implemened during he pre-projec period; onnes CO 2 yr -1 in year = average annual decrease in carbon sock due o biomass loss of living rees for sraum i, species j under he baseline scenario wih A/R implemened during he preprojec period; onnes CO 2 yr -1 in year 44 C ARB, G, ij, = AARB, ij G ARB, ij, CF j (B.6) 12 8 GPG for LULUCF Equaion 3.2.2, Equaion and Equaion

15 CDM Execuive Board AR-AM0005 / Version 01 Secoral Scope: 14 = average annual increase in carbon sock due o biomass growh of living rees for C ARB, G, ij, sraum i, species j under he baseline scenario wih A/R implemened during he pre-projec period; onnes CO 2 yr -1 in year A, = area of sraum i, species j under he baseline scenario wih A/R implemened ARB ij G ARB ij, during he pre-projec period; hecare (ha), = average annual incremen of oal dry biomass of living rees for sraum i, species j under he baseline scenario wih A/R implemened during he pre-projec period; onnes d.m. ha -1 yr -1 in year CF = carbon fracion of dry maer for species j; onnes C (onne d.m.) j = raio of molecular weighs of CO 2 and carbon; dimensionless Noe: This mehodology conservaively assumes ha, for any ime, scenario wih A/R aciviies implemened during he pre-projec period 9. C ARB L, ij,, = 0 for he baseline G = G (1 + R ) (B.7) ARB, ij, ARB, w, ij, j G ARB, w, ij, I ARB, v, ij, D j BEF1, j = (B.8) G ARB ij, G ARB, R j, = average annual incremen of oal dry biomass of living rees for sraum i, species j under he baseline scenario wih A/R implemened during he pre-projec period; onnes d.m. ha -1 yr -1 in year, w, ij = average annual above-ground biomass incremen of rees for sraum i, species j under he baseline scenario wih A/R implemened during he pre-projec period; onnes d.m. ha -1 yr -1 in year = roo-shoo raio relevan o he incremens of species j; dimensionless Noe: Care should be aken ha he roo-shoo raio may change as a funcion of he above-ground biomass presen a ime (see IPCC GPG 2003, Annex 3.A1, Table 3A1.8). I ARB, v, ij, = average annual incremen in merchanable volume for sraum i, species j under he baseline scenario wih A/R implemened during he pre-projec period; m 3 ha -1 yr -1 in year Noe: I ARB, v, ij, for all subsequen roaion cycles, is smaller han ha in he firs cycle, for wo reasons: i is assumed, conservaively, ha here is no growh in he below-ground biomass; and he rae of growh is small a successive cycles. D = basic wood densiy for species j; onnes d.m. m -3 j BEF 1 j = biomass expansion facor for conversion of annual ne incremen (including bark) in merchanable volume o oal above-ground biomass incremen for species j; dimensionless Mehod 2: sock change mehod 10 9 This is conservaive because he proporion of living biomass ha dies or ges harvesed is no deduced from he esimaion of baseline ne GHG removals by sinks and akes ino accoun he loss of grass biomass under he pre-projec A/R. 15

16 CDM Execuive Board AR-AM0005 / Version 01 Secoral Scope: 14 C ARB, ij, C 44 2 ARB, ij, 1 C ARB, ij, = (B.9) T 12 C ARB, ij C ARB, AB, ij + C ARB, BB, ij = (B.10) C ARB, AB, ij = AARB, ij VARB, ij D j BEF2, j CF j (B.11) C ARB BB, ij = C ARB, AB, ij, R (B.12) j G ARB, ij, = average annual incremen of oal dry biomass of living rees for sraum i, species j under he baseline scenario wih A/R implemened during he pre-projec period; onnes d.m. ha -1 yr -1 in year C = oal carbon sock in living biomass of rees for sraum i, species j under he ARB, ij, 2 baseline scenario wih A/R implemened during he pre-projec period calculaed a ime 2 ; onnes C C = oal carbon sock in living biomass of rees for sraum i, species j under he ARB, ij, 1 baseline scenario wih A/R implemened during he pre-projec period calculaed a ime 1 ; onnes C T = number of years beween imes 2 and 1 ; years C ARB, AB, ij = carbon sock in above-ground biomass for sraum i, species j under he baseline scenario wih A/R implemened during he pre-projec period; onnes C C ARB, BB, ij = carbon sock in below-ground biomass for sraum i, species j under he baseline scenario wih A/R implemened during he pre-projec period; onnes C A, = area of sraum i, species j under he baseline scenario wih A/R implemened ARB ij during he pre-projec period; hecare (ha) V, = merchanable volume of sraum i, species j under he baseline scenario wih A/R D j ARB ij implemened during he pre-projec period; m 3 ha -1 = wood densiy for species j; onnes d.m. m -3 merchanable volume BEF 2, j = biomass expansion facor for conversion of merchanable volume o above-ground ree biomass for species j; dimensionless CF = carbon fracion of dry maer for species j; onnes C (onne d.m.) -1 R j j = roo-shoo raio for species j; dimensionless An alernaive way of esimaing pracice by he IPCC. C ARB AB, ij ( DBH H ), is o use allomeric equaions, which is considered good C ARB, AB, ij = AARB, ij CF j f j, (B.13) 10 GPG for LULUCF Equaion

17 CDM Execuive Board AR-AM0005 / Version 01 Secoral Scope: 14 C ARB AB, ij, = carbon sock in above-ground biomass for sraum i, species j under he baseline scenario wih A/R implemened during he pre-projec period; onnes C A, = area of sraum i, species j under he baseline scenario wih A/R implemened ARB ij during he pre-projec period; hecare (ha) CF = carbon fracion of dry maer for species j; onnes C (onne d.m.) -1 j ( DBH H ) f j, = allomeric equaion linking above-ground biomass (d.m. ha -1 ) o mean diameer a breas heigh (DBH) and possibly mean ree heigh (H) for species j under he baseline scenario wih A/R implemened during he pre-projec period Noe: allomeric relaionship beween above-ground biomass and DBH and possibly H is a funcion of he species under consideraion. Therefore, esimaion of mean DBH and H values for sraum i, species j faciliaes he esimaion of carbon sock a ime. Selecion of parameers for esimaion of carbon socks in biomass The following hierarchical order is recommended o selec he respecive parameers, ables and equaions: 1. Locally-derived species-specific informaion, if sufficienly accurae and comprehensive daa are available 2. Species-specific informaion from regional daases, or species-specific informaion exraced from naional daases for sies wih similar soil and climaic condiions 3. Species-specific informaion exraced from naionally-derived daases avoiding only sies wih very differen soil and climae condiions 4. Locally-, regionally-, or naionally-derived informaion for similar species 5. Defaul values provided by he IPCC (e.g. IPCC 2003, Annex 3A.1, Annex 4A.2) or oher scienific sources Conservaive esimaes shall be used for all parameers; he conservaiveness of any parameer used o esimae ree biomass shall be subsaniaed in he PDD. 17

18 CDM Execuive Board AR-AM0005 / Version 01 Secoral Scope: Addiionaliy This mehodology uses he laes version of he Tool for he demonsraion and assessmen of addiionaliy for Afforesaion and Reforesaion CDM Projec Aciviies approved by he CDM Execuive Board 11. In addiion, based on he paragraph 3 of Annex 19 in he EB 24 repor, he assessmen of addiionaliy shall include he jusificaion ha he increased rae of A/R would no occur in he absence of he projec aciviy and resuls from direc inervenion by projec paricipans Ex ane acual ne GHG removal by sinks The ex-ane esimaion of acual removals involves (1) esimaing he changes in carbon socks in he living biomass pool; and (2) esimaing he increase in emissions of greenhouse gases by he sources ha are increased as a resul of he implemenaion of he A/R CDM projec aciviy, i.e., I J K C ACTUAL, = Cijk, GHGE, i= 1 j= 1 k= 1 (B.14) = acual ne greenhouse gas removals by sinks; onnes CO 2 -e yr -1 in year C ACTUAL, C ijk, = average annual change in carbon sock in living biomass of rees for sraum i, GHG, i j k E species j, sub-sraum k; onnes CO 2 yr -1 in year = GHG emissions by sources wihin he projec boundary as a resul of he implemenaion of he A/R CDM projec aciviy; onnes CO 2 -e yr -1 in year = ranges from 1 o end of crediing period; years = sraum i (I = oal number of sraa) = species j (J = oal number of species) = subsraum k (K = oal number of subsraa) a. Changes in carbon socks of living biomass of rees For he purpose of his mehodology, he annual changes in carbon sock in he living biomass for year,, are esimaed using equaion: C ijk, C ijk, = CAB, ijk, + CBB, ijk, (B.15) = average annual change in carbon sock in living biomass of rees for sraum i, C ijk, species j, sub-sraum (age class) k; onnes CO 2 yr -1 in year = average annual changes in carbon sock in above-ground biomass for sraum i, C AB, ijk, species j, sub-sraum k; onnes CO 2 yr -1 in year 11 Please refer o <hp://cdm.unfccc.in/mehodologies/armehodologies. 12 hp://cdm.unfccc.in/eb/024/eb24_repan19.pdf 18