Climate change, heat waves and health: Current research in Southeast Michigan

Transcription

1 Climate change, heat waves and health: Current research in Southeast Michigan Presented by: Jalonne L. White-Newsome University of Michigan School of Public Health Environmental Health Sciences Department Climate Change Vulnerabilities and Opportunities: Michigan and Beyond Symposium Michigan State University April 26, 2010

2 Agenda Background & Significance Current research projects: U of M Heat Team Centers for Disease Control Grant Graham Environmental Sustainability Institute ICLEI Partnership Indoor Heat Study & Behavioral Analysis Putting Research Into practice Questions

3 Background What is Climate Change? global concern persists for typically decades or longer human activity contributes to this trend Results of climate change changes in Ecosystems, increase of coastal flooding, changes in food supply increase in extreme weather conditions Excessive heat, extreme heat, heat waves = morbidity & mortality Focus: short term impact

4 Risk Factors for Heat Vulnerability Individual Elderly Chronically ill Those with cardiovascular, respiratory and renal disease Diabetes, neurological disorders and renal disease Certain medications diuretics Young children Socio-economic deprivation Housing/Community Social cohesion Social isolation Lack of mobility Access to an air-conditioned environment Homes with high thermal mass and little ventilation Living on the upper floors of high rise buildings Cities (urban heat island) vs. rural

5 Previous Studies of Heat and Health in Detroit & Wayne County Michigan People of Black race, those dying outside hospitals, and the less-educated are at greater risk of heat-associated mortality O Neill et. al, 2003 Access to air conditioning and socioeconomic conditions may explain higher heat-related mortality among Blacks O Neill et. al, 2005 Non-white, elderly persons with pre-existing medical conditions (e.g., diabetes) at greater risk in Wayne County Schwartz, 2006 Climate change will double the average number of heat-related deaths in Detroit by mid- 21st century Kalkstein, 2007

6 New research approaches Focus on disproportionate impacts Low income, communities of color Package research results for effective communication Developing tools of relevance for public health action Involve policymakers and local communities in problem identification, research design, needs assessment, translation of findings into action

7 Research at University of Michigan Heat-related hospital admissions among the elderly: Community, socio-economic and medical determinants of vulnerability and economic impacts abstractdetail/abstract/7884/report/0 Climate change, heatwaves, and health: Local tools for sustainability, equity, and prevention Reducing social disparities of heatwave impacts in a changing climate bstract.htm#7

8 Heat and hospital admissions among the elderly: Community, socio-economic and medical determinants of vulnerability and economic impacts Environmental Protection Agency Science to Achieve Results R University of Michigan Marie O Neill (PI), Dan Brown, Ana Diez-Roux, Helen Levy, Shannon Brines, Carina Gronlund, Jalonne White-Newsome, Katie Bush Harvard University Joel Schwartz, Antonella Zanobetti, Greg Wellenius ICLEI-Cities for Climate Protection Missy Stults, Michael Hughes

9 Project goals Better understand health consequences of climate change and variability by studying heat and daily hospital admissions among elderly people in 101 U.S. cities ( ) Evaluate individual and community determinants of vulnerability Estimate economic impacts Disseminate results to local governments to foster and inform preventive action

10 Integrating Heat Health into ICLEI s Climate Resilient Communities Program Missy Stults, Adaptation Manager January 20 th, 2010

11 ICLEI s Mission Our mission is to build, serve, and drive a movement of local governments to advance deep reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and achieve tangible improvements in local sustainability.

12 Climate Resilient Communities Program Sister program to mitigation program Focuses on 5-Milestones for Adaptation Planning Will be formally launched as a full program this year Resources to-date: Published Preparing for Climate Change: A Guidebook for Local, Regional and State Governments with King County, WA and Climate Impacts Group Developed Five Milestone Process for Adaptation Experience of five pilot communities ICLEI worked with to create program Advisory committee of local governments Heat health project Creating a number of additional tools and resources

13 Five Milestones for Climate Adaptation Make Commitment Milestone 1 Conduct a Resiliency Study Milestone 5 Monitor, Evaluate, Update Milestone 2 Set Preparedness Goals Milestone 3 Develop Preparedness Plan Milestone 4 Implement Preparedness Plan

14 ICLEI s Adaptation Message to Local Governments Understand what adaptation is Realize that adaptation and mitigation are not mutually exclusive Know what you are adapting to Prepare for those impacts Be flexible and start with win-win options Adaptation planning is not a new process

15 Climate change, heat waves and health: Local tools for sustainability, equity and protection Graham Institute UM Detroit Heatwaves Study Investigators: Drs. Marie O Neill, Richard Rood, Daniel Brown, Edith Parker Participants: Jalonne White-Newsome, Carina Gronlund, Kai Zhang, Evan Oswald, Shannon Brines, Natalie Sampson, Sonia Mathew

16 Aims Conduct an interview-based needs assessment (among residents and government officials); Develop a heat vulnerability mapping decision support tool and demographic vulnerability indicators; Design a prototype simple, inexpensive HHWS that could be implemented in Detroit and validate the system using historical health outcome data.

17 Heat and health: Information for prevention, equity and sustainability (diagram developed by Richard Rood) E 3 E 4 G 3 G 4 P 3 P 4 E 1 E 2 E n G 1 G 2 G n P 1 P 2 P n Environmental Exposures Geographical Information Population Information Heat warning Cityscape VP 1 VP 2

18 Census tract level data from Detroit showing green space and population characteristics relevant to vulnerability

19 CDC Project Reducing social disparities of heatwaves impacts in a changing climate Grant from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Sept August 2011), Grant R18 EH Investigators: Marie O Neill, Edith Parker, Richard Rood (U of Michigan); Sabrina McCormick (George Washington U.); Missy Stults, Xico Manarolla (ICLEI: Local Governments for Sustainability); Joel Schwartz and Antonella Zanobetti (Harvard U); Kristie Ebi (ESS/LLC)

20 Indoor Heat Study led by Jalonne White-Newsome To explore the relationship between ambient and indoor temperatures in homes occupied by elderly individuals in metro Detroit, Michigan To determine the characteristics of homes that could put residents at higher risk during heat events To create a model to predict indoor temperature from available data To study the behaviors of the elderly associated with how they adapt to hot weather

21 Methods Study Participants Recruited 30 volunteers, over age of 65 years, residing in the city of Detroit Conducted physical assessment of each home Presence of air conditioning, number of stories, which floor home is on (in high rise buildings), room color, flooring, size of windows, window treatments, exterior construction of home, shape of roof, surroundings, etc Created daily activity logs for resident use Obtained additional housing information from Detroit property tax assessment office database

22 Experiment Summary Monitoring period: June August 31, 2009 Hourly temperature data Home types: 9 High rises 3 Two family flats 18 Single family homes

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24 Methods Indoor Temperature Measurements Installed two indoor temperature loggers per home (with the exception of one location), June-Aug 2009 Den, bedroom, dining room or living room HO HOBO Temperature Data Loggers (ONSET Corporation) Pre-calibrated and prepped before deployment Loggers installed based on established protocol and set to record temperature every 10 minutes Readings downloaded every 2 weeks Detroit Metropolitan Airport Downloaded hourly readings from Outdoor weather data (Temperature, Humidity) NOAA Midwestern Regional Climate Center, Champaign, Illinois Daily averaged solar radiation data

25 Home Energy Balance Outdoor Factors Indoor Factors Solar Radiation Surface Imperviousness Greenhouse Gases Weather conditions Internal Heat Generating Activities Behaviors Lighting Air Cond Energy Stored = Energy Absorbed Tin C ( t) Tin t ( t t ) S adsorptiont ( ) * Rglobal ( t) Ro, in ( ho fopen * hv )*( Tin( t) Tout ( t) )

26 Indoor heat Study Findings Homes made of vinyl paneling or wood siding seem more sensitive to outdoor temperature changes and internal heat gains. Locations without central air conditioning are more sensitive to outdoor temperatures and solar radiation. Non high rise apartments (i.e. single family homes) were more sensitive to outdoor temperatures than high rise apartments. Homes built between were more sensitive to outdoor temperature versus other years of construction. Homes with the highest indoor temperatures seemed to follow observed trends in another study, that northwest Detroit homes were warmer than homes in downtown. Highest temperatures seen in homes with prevailing surroundings that were predominately residential. Behavioral data still being analyzed

27 Putting Research into Practice Establishing collaborations Public health practitioners, non profit organizations, other institutions Using findings to inform: Interventions Best practices Policy Joint research question development and problem solving Provide foundation to address needs or validate the needs covered in the MI Climate plan

28 Jalonne L. White-Newsome University of Michigan School of Public Health

29 Questions?