Challenges and opportunities for Clean Coal Technologies in Europe and Germany

Transcription

1 Challenges and opportunities for Clean Coal Technologies in Europe and Germany Dr. Oliver Then, VGB PowerTech e.v. Clean Coal Day in Japan 2017 International Symposium 5 September 2017, Tokyo

2 VGB PowerTech who we are Our mission is to support our members in their operational business. to support our members in strategic challenges. to be a key contact for international energy stakeholders. We have 484 members in 35 countries, over 90% are European based We represent an installed capacity of 458 GW based on this energy mix: Fossil Nuclear Renewables VGB is the International Technical Association for Heat and Power generation and storage. Founded in 1920 it is based on a voluntary association of companies active in the energy business. 2 VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 2

3 VGB PowerTech how we work Over 1,700 experts are active in the VGB network. VGB facilitates the exchange of experiences between the experts and document and disseminate the results for the benefit of all members. 3 VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 3

4 Agenda 1. The present: European power generation The future: European energy policy framework 3. The consequences: profitability, availability and reliability of power plants 4. The challenges: flexibility, compliance and survival 5. Conclusion VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 4

5 1. The present: European power generation 2016 Key changes from 2015 to Gas replaced coal, and hence European power sector emissions fell drastically by 4.5 %. 2 Renewables increased only slightly from 29.2 % to 29.6 % of the electricity mix, mainly due to bad solar and wind conditions. 3 Electricity consumption rises slightly by 0.5 %, with European GDP rising by 1.7 %. 4 The structural oversupply of the EU-ETS has passed the landmark of 3 billion tonnes of CO2 ( mil. tons CO2). 5 The outlook for 2017 is for further significant falls in fossil generation but whether this is coal or gas is uncertain. VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 5

6 1. The present: European power generation in 2016 Gross power production: ~ TWh Fuel Gas 18,6% (15,5) Lignite 9,6% (10,1) Renewables 29,6% (29,2) Biomass 27.9% Waste 3.6% Wind 34.2% Others 3,8% Solar 20.5% Hydro 13.9% Nuclear 26,3% (26,9) Hard Coal 12,0% (14,5) Source: Agora Energiewende and Sandbag (2017): Energy Transition in the Power Sector in Europe: State of Affairs in (2015 figures) More than 50 % of nearly unchanged RES is coming from volatile sources. Source: AG Energiebilanzen Significant shift from coal (down by 12 %) to gas (up by 20 %). VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 6

7 1. The present: European generation capacity in 2016 Installed net capacity ~ 1050 GW (thereof 450 GW RES) In 2016 wind energy capacity has increased by 12,5 GW with investments of approx. 27,5 bill. EUR. It is followed by solar PV with + 7,3 GW. Coal power has seen shutdowns of 8 GW of capacity. VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 7

8 1. The present: European power generation mix 2016 Based on a very hetererogenous generation mix in the individual EU countries political targets and transformation speed will remain significantly different. source: Entso E, MTAF 2016 VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 8

9 Agenda 1. The present: European power generation The future: European energy policy framework 3. The consequences: profitability, availability and reliability of power plants 4. The challenges: flexibility, compliance and survival 5. Conclusion VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 9

10 2. The future: Energy Policy Framework in Europe % Greenhouse Gas Emissions 20% Renewable Energy 20% Energy Efficiency 10% Interconnection 2030 at least -40% Greenhouse Gas Emissions at least 27%* Renewable Energy Consumption at least 20% (indicative) Energy Efficiency 15% Interconnection - 43% reduction from ETS - 30% reduction from non-ets * Implies 45% RES in power generation (to be reviewed by 2020) Source: Eurostat Reference year for CO 2 -reduction:1990 Future energy market design? Will there be an energy-onlymarket or a capacity market or both? Development of the Emission Trading Scheme? Will the introduction of a market stability reserve revive the CO 2 -market? Increased importance of security of supply? Is there a conflict between the dependence on gas and European foreign policy? VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 10

11 2. The future: EU reference scenario power generation Europe Source: EU Energy, Transport and GHG Emission Trends to 2050, EU Commission 2013 The EU reference scenario based on the 20/20/20 climate targets is showing a significant decrease of coal based generation until VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 11

12 2. The future: VGB Project 388 shutdown curve power plants 50 % Source VGB: F. Johnson et.al.; Investment requirements in European electricity generation infrastructure towards 2050, 2016 Based on typical life times approx. 50 % of the European power plant fleet will be decommissioned until 2035 (>2%/a). Shutdowns due to missing economics will add on. Current new build projects only cover approx. 60 % of this capacity loss. VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 12

13 2. The future: VGB Project 388 Necessary investments until 2045 Annual capacity addition in GW Annual investment needs in bill. EUR Quelle VGB: F. Johnson et.al.; Investment requirements in European electricity generation infrastructure towards 2050, 2016 Significant need for investments of up to 40 bill. EUR/a until 2025 and bill. EUR/a until (40 bill. EUR ~ bill. Yen) Major share of wind and PV but significant investments in gas-fired backup plants necessary. Nuclear and CCS as alternative options in some countries. VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 13

14 2. The future: One Europe different countries Coal EXIT in UK, Denmark (conversion to biomass), Netherlands (?), Germany (?) SUPPORT in (South) Eastern Europe e.g. Poland, Czech, Serbia, Turkey BAN for new build after 2021 (EURELECTRIC initiative 2017) STOP of major R&D initiatives for A-USC technologies Nuclear EXIT in Germany SUPPORT in Finland, France, Switzerland, SEE e.g. Poland, Turkey RES SUPPORT in all countries but very different supporting schemes, speed, shares CCS SUPPORT e.g. Norway, Netherlands, UK (few projects progressing) BAN in Germany, move towards CCU and other industries IGCC no major projects under development due to market conditions VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 14

15 Agenda 1. The present: European power generation The future: European energy policy framework 3. The consequences: profitability, availability and reliability of power plants 4. The challenges: flexibility, compliance and survival 5. Conclusion VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 15

16 3. German power generation in 2016 Installed net capacity: Gross power production: 210 GW (thereof 104 GW RES) 648 TWh (consumption 593 TWh): Fuel Gas 12,1% Fuel Oil 0,9% Waste 3.6% Lignite 23,1% Renewables 29,5% Biomass 27.9% Wind 34.2% Others 4,3% Solar 20.5% Hydro 13.9% Nuclear 13,1% Hard Coal 17,0% Source: AG Energiebilanzen Renewables have outscored lignite as No.1 electricity generation source. More than 50 % of RES is coming from volatile sources. Gas has increased by 25 % from Installed capacity has grown by 50 % since VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 16

17 3. Consequences of German Energiewende : Profitability April2017 Source: EEX, BDEW The profitability of conventional power plants, even on marginal costs, has deteriorated because of lower prices and reduced operating hours. VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 17

18 3. Consequences of German Energiewende : System stability Development of TSO redispatch measures in Germany 2016 Volume (GWh) ? J-A 2017 costs (Mil. ) source: German Regulator BNetzA Total costs of TSO load management increased to appr. 1,2 billion in In 2020 German TSO estimate further increase between 4 to 5 billion. VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 18

19 3. Consequences of German Energiewende : Utilization Utilization of hard coal plants in Germany: winter period 2017 Installed net capacity Hard coal ca. 31 GW Lignite ca. 20 GW Maximum load band Jan17: Steinkohle 6 to 25 GW Braunkohle 6 to 18 GW No significant seasonal differences in principal operation mode. More conventional plants online due to weather and market situation in CW3 and VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 19

20 3. Analysis of performance and availability with the database KISSY Target: Optimization of power plants in a competitive and harsh market environment 1. Collection of availability data and determination of performance indicators, 2. Recording of unavailability incidents for individual power plant components, 3. Analysis of reliability indicators of components, 4. Benchmarking of a power plant with a peer group of similar plants, 5. Definition basis: VGB-Standard Technical and commercial Indicators of Power Plants (VGB-S ) free download from Products: annual VGB report TW 103 V Availability of Power Plants, individual analysis, Special reports, e.g. VGB/WEC availability report for WEC Istanbul Summit 2016 KISSY is the leading performance database for power plants and renewable-based generating facilities and delivers strategic important KPIs based on internationally recognised definitions and methods for more than 40 years. VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 20

21 3. Trend analysis of unavailability in HC plants > 200 MW in Germany UA planned UA postponable UA not postponable Rise in not postponable unavailability from 3 > 12%! 10 8 % Number of Units / Year UA: unavailability In Germany not postponable unavailability has seen a sharp increase but stabilizes according the latest trend. Planned measures have been reduced. VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 21

22 3. Trend of starts and full load hours vs. unplanned unavailability Collective: 49 units, Germany, hard coal, > 200 MW, % Number of starts Full load hours % NV Arbeit Unplanned ungeplant (gesamt) unavailability Significant correlation between number of starts, full load hours and unplanned unavailability. Unavailability with dramatic increase over past 10 years. VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 22 Anzahl Number der Anfahrten of starts äquivalente Number of Volllaststunden equivalent full load hours NV Arbeit Unplanned ungeplant (gesamt) unavailability

23 3. What is VGB s operational experience? Example: explosion of boiler circulation pump 12 May 2014 KW Staudinger Unit 5 Damage at facade boiler house unit 5 Damages at steel structure Upper part of pump casing ripped off source: Dr. M. Bader E.ON Anlagenservice MPA-Seminar Gut feeling : Increasing number of incidents and damages 2. Especially at components inconspicious over decades and not in the focus of monitoring and maintenance 3. Yet no clear reference to more flexible operation. Other contributing factors could be ageing of plants and reduced maintenance efforts. 4. Other VGB-activities : R&D projects e.g. on boiler circulation systems, consultancy VGB PowerTech e.v. 23

24 Agenda 1. The present: European power generation The future: European energy policy framework 3. The consequences: profitability, availability and reliability of power plants 4. The challenges: flexibility, compliance and survival 5. Conclusion VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 24

25 4. Main challenges for coal fired power generation 1 Adapt maintenance strategies to reduce costs for improving plant position in merit order and thus increase operating hours. 2 Implement new skills and training concepts to ensure efficient and optimized operation and maintenenace 3 Comply to further stringent emission reduction directives, e.g. new BREF LCP ELV s from 2021 on. 4 Increase flexibility of equipment and plant to better backup fluctuating RES generation. 5 Prepare for implementing technologies to further increase of efficiency and stabilizing availability&reliability. VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 25

26 4. What keeps the grid stable? Achieving system stability is key to a successful energy transition. Therefore a flexible conventional power plant fleet is essential. 26 VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 26

27 4. What does flexible operation mean? Minimum load operation important for the provision of residual load and for fast start up in case of high demand (e.g. twoshifting) more economic than shut-down of the whole plant Advanced dynamics by high ramp rates high ramp rates ensure a fast reaction to changed market condition power plants with dynamic cycling abilities can participate in different markets Short start-up and shut-down Short start-up and show-down times are beneficial to quickly respond to according market requirements (e.g. two-shifting) thermal stress during start and stop are most severe and causes life time consumption Flexible operation aims at achieving low minimum load, high ramp rates and fast start and stop time. According measures might contribute to one or more targets. 27 VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 27

28 4. Flexibility parameters of thermal power plants Main flexibility contributors are: high load gradients, low minimum load, short ramp-up times Plant type Hard-coal Lignite CCGT Gas Turbine Load gradient [% / min] in the load range [%] 2 / 4 / 8 2 / 4 / 8 4 / 8 / 12 8 / 12 / to to 90 40* to 90 40* to 90 Minimum load [%] 40 / 25 / / 40 / / 40 / 30* 50 / 40 / 20* Ramp-up time Hot start <8 h [h] Ramp-up time Cold start >48 h [h] Source: VDE and own studies usual value / state of the art / potential *as per emission limits for NOx and CO 3 / 2 / 1 6 / 4 / / 1 / 0,5 < / 4 / 2 8 / 6 / 2 3 / 2 / 1 < 0.1 Thermal power plants are able to significantly contribute to a modern energy system. Technology development is focused on realising the flexibility potentials. 28 VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 28

29 4. Flexible operation new technologies, processes and skills Technology: ensure proper instrumentation and condition monitoring implementation of advanced control and diagnostics adjustment of the key components or systems replacement or modification of components or systems O&M: new control and data strategies new operation regime affecting all areas of the plant need to develop preservation concepts adjustment of maintenance strategies adjustment of shiftplanning, staffing and organisation re-assessment of coalsupply and by product strategies Skills: flexible technologies and processes go along with high level of automation training is essential familiarise the staff with new requirements arising from flexible operation define new requirements and re-work job profiles long-term training strategies need to be developed for all types of personnel Flexible operation has an impact on all aspects of power plant operation. A high level of automation with advanced control is key for any efforts towards flexibilization. 29 VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 29

30 4. Market driven impacts on O&M strategies Must-run (contractual) Market follower Reserve Characteristics operation according customers needs for electricity and/or heat market prices rule the power operation operation on demand of the TSO Availibility > 90 % < 80 % not important Utilisation % % 1 5 % Maintenance approach preventive maintenance in wearintensive areas (mills, boiler, FG-cleaning) condition based maintenance overhaul cycles and durations are timedependent risk-based maintenance advanced condition monitoring overhaul cycles are cost-optimised and based on equivalent operating hours longer stand-stills condition based maintenance frequent plant tests and start-ups to secure reliable operation if requested long stand-stills need for a concept to maintain know-how Source: VGB based on Uniper The operational regime remains stable over the contractual period for must-run and reserve power plants. Market followers suffer from increased lifetime consumption. 30 VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 30

31 4. Conclusion European energy politics are reducing the share of coal fired generation in the upcoming decades in favour mainly of gas and RES. Coal new build have become very unlikely in the future. CCS will be only an option in some countries and some industries. A changed market environment is leading towards a significant more flexible operation regime of conventional power plants. Flexible technologies are available for new builds as well as for existing assets. VGB statistics up to now are showing only rudimental consequences on availability of plants and reliability of components. VGB experiences nevertheless reveal an increasing number of incidents and damages. In most cases an unanbiguous assignement to more flexible operation could not be construed. Ageing plants and cut O&M budgets are other potential contributing factors. Further R&D efforts in conventional generation technology are necessary to better understand the effects of flexible operation and further reduction of emissions. 31 VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 31

32 Thank you for your interest! ご清聴ありがとうございました Contact: Dr. Oliver Then Head of Power Plant and Environmental Technologies Deilbachtal Essen / Germany Phone: Mobile: Oliver.then@vgb.org VGB PowerTech e.v. FOLIE 32