Long Term Adequacy Metrics February 2015

Transcription

1 Long Term Adequacy Metrics February 2015 Introduction The following report provides information on the long term adequacy of the Alberta electric energy market. The report contains metrics that include tables on generation projects under development and generation retirements, an annual reserve margin with a five year forecast period, a two year daily supply cushion, and a two year probabilistic assessment of the AIES. The Long Term Adequacy (LTA) Metrics provide an assessment and provide information that can be used to facilitate further assessments of long term adequacy. This report is updated quarterly in February, May, August, and November. Inquires on the report can be made at forecast@aeso.ca. Summary of Changes since Previous Report New Generation and Retirements Metric Projects completed and removed from list: Northstone Power Elmworth (9 MW) Generation Projects moved to Active Construction : Cenovus Christina Lake 1E (95 MW) Shell Carmon Creek Unit 1 (230 MW) Shell Carmon Creek Unit 2 (230 MW) Shell Carmon Creek Unit 3 (230 MW) Generation projects moved to Regulatory Approval : CNRL Horizon (85 MW) Alberta Wind Energy Windy Point (63 MW) Generation projects that have been added to Announced, Applied for AESO Interconnection, and/or Applied for Regulatory Approval : Terice Energy Bawmanton DG (15 MW) Generation projects that have been removed: TransAlta Dunvegan (100 MW) Federal Coal Compliance Schedule: Table 5 has been added for evaluation in metrics

2 Other changes to generation projects: Project Change Genalta Bellshill New ISD of Jun-2015 from Q Mustus Energy Mustus Biomass New ISD of Mar-2016 from Feb-2015 BluEarth Renewables Hand Hills Wind Farm New ISD of Oct-2016 from Q Grand Prairie Harmattan Energy Centre Naturener Wild Rose 1 Enmax Bonnybrook Naturener Wild Rose 2 Benign Energy Heritage Wind Farm 1 Benign Energy Heritage Wind Farm 2 Suncor Hand Hills Enel Riverview Altalink Energy Storage Eolectric Welsh Wind Syncrude Mildred Lake BowArk Energy Drywood BowArk Energy Queenstown Mainstream Renewable Wainwright Wind E.ON Grizzly Bear Sharp Hills Sharp Hills Wind New ISD of Feb-2017 from Dec-2015 New ISD of Jun-2016 from May-2016 New ISD of Aug-2016 from Jun-2016 New ISD of Mar-2017 from Nov-2016 New ISD of Dec-2018 from Aug-2017 New ISD of Dec-2018 from Apr-2018 New ISD of Oct-2016 from Sep-2015 New ISD of Dec-2015 from Nov-2017 New ISD of Dec-2016 from Feb-2016 New ISD of Jan-2017 from May-2016 New ISD of Jun-2016 from May-2016 New ISD of Oct-2016 from Jun-2016 New ISD of Jun-2016 from Aug-2016 New ISD of Mar-2017 from Oct-2016 New ISD of Dec-2016 from Jan-2017 New ISD Oct-2017 from Jun-2017

3 Renewable Energy Services McLaughlin AltaGas Kent Generation Joss Wind Jenner Wind Alberta Wind Energy Old Elm & Pothole Creek Rocky Mountain Power ASISt New ISD of Aug-2017 from Jul-2017 New ISD of Sep-2016 from Jul-2017 New ISD of Jan-2018 from Sep-2017 New ISD of May-2017 from May-2018 New ISD of Jan-2019 from Sep-2017

4 Reserve Margin Metric The reserve margin has been updated to reflect changes to the project list. Supply Cushion Metric The forecast supply cushion has been updated to reflect the new time period. Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall Metric New values for the metric have been calculated with Total Energy Not Served remaining unchanged at 0 MWh from the previous report. This new value is below the 1600 MWh threshold. New Generation Projects and Retirements Metric The New Generation Projects and Retirements Metric is a summary of generation at various stages of development in Alberta and is shown in Tables 1 to 4 below. In Alberta s deregulated electricity market competitive forces determine the location, magnitude and timing of new generation additions. Information on prospective generation additions and retirements provides context for the future market in Alberta. The information is drawn from a variety of public sources and includes new generation, changes to existing generation and the retirement of generating units. Changes in project in-service dates (ISDs) and regulatory stages occur as projects move forward and/or market conditions change. Current information on connection project ISDs can be found in the AESO Project List and information on power plant applications can be found at the Alberta Utilities Commission website. Table 1: Generation Projects under Construction Sponsor(s) Project Name Fuel Unit Capacity* ISD* Enmax Shepard Gas 873 Q Imperial Oil Kearl Gas 84 Q Imperial Oil Cold Lake (Nabiye) 2 Gas 170 Q Genalta West Cadotte Gas 18.6 Q AltaGas Harmattan Gas 15 Q MFC Energy Corp Mazeppa Gas Plant Gas 16.5 May-2015 Genalta Bellshill Gas 5 Jun-2015 Cargill Camrose County Gas 11.3 Jun-2015 Natural Energy Partners Ralston Gas 17 Jul-2015 Slave Lake Pulp Slave Lake Pulp Biomass 9 Jul-2015

5 Table 1: Generation Projects under Construction Sponsor(s) Project Name Fuel Unit Capacity* ISD* Shell Carmon Creek Unit 1 Gas 230 Jul-2015 Blue Earth Inc Brooks JBS Gas 14.9 Aug-2015 Cenovus Christina Lake 1E Gas 95 Oct-2015 Shell Carmon Creek Unit 2 Gas 230 Oct-2015 Shell Carmon Creek Unit 3 Gas 230 Jan-2016 Mustus Energy Mustus Biomass Biomass 41 Mar-2016 Sunshine West Ells Gas 24 TBD** Total (MW) 2,084 *Unit Capacity Expected MW capacity; ISD Estimated in-service date **Construction is currently on hold Table 2: Generation Project with Regulatory Approval Sponsor(s) Project Name Fuel Unit Capacity ISD Alberta Wind Energy Windy Point Wind 63 Jan-2016 Maxim Power Deerland Peaking 1 Gas 186 Mar-2016 Enbridge Whitetail Peaking Gas 186 May-2016 Naturener Wild Rose 1 Wind 210 Jun-2016 Enmax Bonnybrook Gas 168 Aug-2016 CNRL Horizon Gas 85 Sep-2016 BluEarth Renewables Hand Hills Wind Farm Wind 80 Oct-2016 Pteragen Peace Butte Wind 120 Dec-2016 ATCO Power Heartland Power Station 1 Gas 510 Jan-2017 Grand Prairie Harmattan Energy Centre Gas 95 Feb-2017 Naturener Wild Rose 2 Wind 210 Mar-2017

6 Sponsor(s) Project Name Fuel Unit Capacity ISD TransCanada Saddlebrook Gas 350 Jun-2017 Maxim Power Milner 2 Phase 1 Gas 260 Jan-2018 Capital Power Genesee 4 Gas 525 Jan-2018 Benign Energy Heritage Wind 1 Wind 100 Dec-2018 Benign Energy Heritage Wind 2 Wind 250 Dec-2018 Capital Power Genesee 5 Gas 525 Jan-2019 Maxim Power Milner 2 Phase 2 Gas 260 Jan-2020 GTE Power Brooks Power Solar 15 TBD Nexen Long Lake South Gas 85 TBD MEG Christina Lake 3A Gas 85 TBD MacKay Operating Corp MacKay Gas 85 TBD Total (MW) 4,453 Table 3: Generation Projects that have been Announced, Applied for AESO Connection, and/or Applied for Regulatory Approval Sponsor(s) Project Name Fuel Unit Capacity ISD* Husky Muskawa Gas 25 Oct-2015 (A) Enel Riverview Wind 115 Dec-2015 (A) BluEarth Bull Creek DG 1 Wind 26.8 Dec-2015 (A) Terice Energy Bawmanton DG Gas 15 Feb-2016 (A) Syncrude Mildred Lake Gas 85 Jun-2016 (A) BowArk Energy Queenstown Power Plant Gas 80 Jun-2016 (A) Suncor Fort Hills Gas 170 Aug-2016 (A) Maxim Power HR Milner Expansion Gas 90 Sep-2016 (A) AltaGas Kent Generation Gas 100 Sep-2016 (A)

7 Sponsor(s) Project Name Fuel Unit Capacity ISD Imperial Oil Strathcona Gas 85 Oct-2016 (A) BowArk Energy Drywood Power Gas 18.6 Oct-2016 (A) Suncor Hand Hills Wind 80 Oct-2016 (P) Altalink Energy Storage ES 14 Dec-2016 (A) E.ON Grizzly Bear Wind 120 Dec-2016 (A) Eolectric Welsh Wind Wind 69 Jan-2017 (A) Mainstream Renewable Wainwright Wind Project Wind 150 Mar-2017 (A) MEG Christina Lake 2B4X Gas 75 May-2017 (A) Alberta Wind Energy Old Elm & Pothole Creek Wind 300 May-2017 (A) Renewable Energy Services McLaughlin Wind 47 Aug-2017 (A) Sharp Hills Sharp Hills Wind 300 Oct-2017 (A) Focus Equities Great Spirit Gas 1000 Dec-2017 (A) Joss Wind Jenner Wind Wind 120 Jan-2018 (A) ATCO Heartland Power Station 2 Gas 510 Mar-2018 (A) Cenovus Narrows Lake Gas 50 Apr-2018 (A) Enmax Calgary Energy Centre Peaking Gas 150 Jun-2018 (A) TransAlta Sundance 7 Gas 850 Jun-2018 (P) Rocky Mountain Power ASISt ES 160 Jan-2019 (A) TransAlta Sundance 8 Gas 700 TBD (C) TransAlta Sundance 9 Gas 700 TBD (C) Total (MW) 6,205 * - (P):Power Plant application filed with AUC, (A): AESO application in process, (C): Corporate announcement

8 Table 4: Generation Projects that have Announced to Retired Sponsor(s) Project Name Fuel Unit Capacity Retire Date Status N/A Total (MW) Federal Coal Compliance Schedule In 2012, the federal government approved the Reduction of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal-fired Generation of Electricity Regulations. The regulation requires that coal-fired generation units meet a GHG emissions intensity target once it reaches end of life. The decision to retire a coal unit could also be impacted by several potential drivers, including the economics of plant operations, contractual agreements, and provincial and federal legislation. The AESO has adopted the federal compliance dates as retirement dates to evaluate metrics included in this report. Table 5: Federal Coal Compliance Schedule Sponsor(s) Project Name Fuel Unit Capacity In Service Date Federal Compliance Date 1 ATCO Battle River 3 Coal Dec-2019 TransAlta Sundance 1 Coal Dec-2019 TransAlta Sundance 2 Coal Dec-2019 Maxim HR Milner Coal Dec-2019 Total (MW) Federal Compliance Dates are based upon the applicable provisions of the Reduction of Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Coal-fired Generation of Electricity Regulations, as set forth in the Canada Gazette Vol. 146, No.19.

9 Reserve Margin Metric The Reserve Margin Metric, shown in Figure 1, presents a comparison of generation supply and demand in Alberta. It is a calculation of the firm generation capacity at the time of system peak that is in excess of the system annual peak demand, expressed as a percentage of the system peak. Information on the annual peak demand within the reserve margin can be found at Forecasting. Firm generation is defined as installed and future generation capacity, adjusting for seasonal hydro capacity and behind-the-fence demand and generation, and excludes wind capacity. Three forecast reserve margins are presented, each with different future supply additions. The supply additions correspond to the stage of the generation projects in the New Generation Projects and Retirements Metric. The metric is graphed with and without intertie capacity in one reserve margin since full import capability may not always be available at the time of system peak demand. Capacity from Sundance 1 and 2 has been excluded from the 2011 and 2012 reserve margin. They returned to service in late 2013 and are included in the current forecast reserve margin values. Figure 1: Alberta Interconnected Electric System (AIES) Reserve Margin,

10 Supply Cushion Metric The Supply Cushion Metric provides visibility of the Alberta Interconnected Electric System s ability to meet peak demand on a daily basis. The supply cushion is the difference between the daily available firm supply minus daily peak demand. Only existing generation and generation under construction are used within the metric. The supply cushion refines the reserve margin calculation by using daily system peak rather than annual and incorporates planned outages. Figure 2 presents the estimated daily supply cushion for the next two years. Figure 3 presents daily peak demand and firm supply by fuel type, as well as interties, wind and back up generation (Rainbow) which are not included in the supply cushion calculation due to the intermittent or uncertain nature of the supply. When the supply cushion is negative in Figure 2, there is an increased level of reliance on interties, wind and back up generation, as indicated in Figure 3. Figure 2: Alberta Interconnected Electric System (AIES) Daily Supply Cushion, February 1, 2015 to January 31, 2017

11 Figure 3: Alberta Interconnected Electric System (AIES) Daily Peak Demand and Available Supply, February 1, 2015 to January 31, 2017

12 Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall Metric The Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall Metric is a probabilistic assessment of encountering a supply shortfall over the next two years. It builds on the Supply Cushion Metric by incorporating the probability of wind production, forced generation outages and generation derates into the calculation of hourly firm supply. The calculation estimates, on a probabilistic basis, how much load may go without supply over the next two year period. Based on extensive consultation with stakeholders, when this unserved energy exceeds 1,600 MWh in any two year period (equivalent to one hour 800 MW shortfall in each of the two years), the AESO may take certain actions to bridge the temporary supply adequacy gap without impacting investor confidence in the market. The total energy not served shown in Table 5 does not reach the threshold. Table 6: Two Year Probability of Supply Adequacy Shortfall, February 1, 2015 to January 31, 2017 Worst Shortfall Hour (MW) # of Hours in Shortfall Total Energy Not Served (MWh) Note: Values are rounded and represent average outputs