The product and chemical tanker markets

Transcription

1 The product and chemical tanker markets Key trends Prepared for INTERTANKO ANNUAL MEETING Singapore, 11 May 2012 The informa,on in this analysis is general in nature and it is not intended to be relied upon for any specific purpose. All informa,on provided by Inge Steensland AS in connec,on to this material, whether oral or wri?en, represents the current view of Inge Steensland AS, and will be subject to change, comple,on or amendment without no,ce. Certain statements herein may include forward- looking statements (or long- term forecasts) and predic,ons. The forward- looking statements (or long- term forecasts) and predic,ons are as such always subject to changes on account of risks and uncertain,es beyond our ability to control or predict. These statements relevant to forecasts and predic,ons are based on our current assump,ons and reflect our current views. Given these factors, the recipient and any others presented with this material should not place undue reliance on the forward- looking statements (or long- term forecasts) and predic,ons. None of Inge Steensland AS or any of its employees can be held directly or indirectly liable for any consequences of reliance upon or use of the informa,on herein.

2 High correlaaon between product and chemical tankers 300 CPP rate vs chemical rate INDEX ,000 mts CPP UKC/USAC Rdam- US 5,000 mts Easy Chems

3 NB and 2. hand prices Close to 10 year low, but have we reached bo>om? USD million year price range vs current price NB SH 5 yr NB SH 5 yr NB SH 5 yr NB SH 5 yr dwt coated dwt Clad- stst Japan MR LR2

4 Bunkers are hampering earnings Spot rate index (Jan 1999=100) Spot chemical rate vs owners' reported earnings Fujairah IFO380 ISAS global spot index Odfjell ODFIX TC index Stolt- Nielsen sailed- in time- charter index USD per ton USD per day MR 1 year TC and 5 year value USD million

5 Fleet growth slowing down Chemical tankers Product tankers 14% 12% 20% 10% 15% 8% 6% 10% yoy growth 4% 2% 0% - 2% - 4% 5000 dwt+ coated tanker fleet 5000 dwt+ stainless tanker fleet yoy growth 5% 0% - 5% Panamax and Aframax tanker fleet MR tanker fleet

6 Changing trading dynamics in AtlanAc basin Favours MR tonnage Million tons US gasoline import US fuel distillates export? Gasoline import: Biofuel More fuel efficient car park Improving economy UncertainHes of East Coast refineries future Export: New export oriented plants Shale gas

7 New refineries favouring LRs 800 Incremental refinery capacity in Middle East/India 16 Sikka middle distillates exports to West LR1 KBD Million tons 12 8 LR

8 Middle East chemical trade Ton/mile provider for the chemical tanker market Import Middle East chemical import vs export Export Million tons Iran a wild card Accounts for 6.5 million tons export and 1.2 million tons import

9 Vegoil trade Ton/mile provider for the chemical and product tanker market Million tons Palm+Soybean oil trade by import region SEA/FEA Americas NWE+MED W+E Africa MEG- Ind Others

10 The US shale gas Triggering new ophmism for chemical export from USG OCI North America 750,000 mts/methanol Methanex 1,000,000 mts/methanol 2.5 million tons methanol capacity planned by end 2014 Rising exports of caushc soda and EDC Dow/Mitsui 750,000 mts/edc LyondellBasell 780,000 mts/methanol

11 The market is recovering Product tankers lagging chemical tankers + on paper 130.0% 110.0% 90. 0% 70. 0% 50. 0% Chemical tankers Product tankers Million dwt Util Avail. fleet Req. fleet 88% 90% 83% 78% 79% 78% 76% % % 2014 Million dwt % 90% 85% % % % % % % % % 90% 85% 80% 75% 70% 65% Utilization Available fleet Required fleet 5000dwt + chemical fleet Future scrapping at 27 years Assumed demand growth: 4.2% in 2012 and 6.4% therea]er MR+ Future scrapping at 25 years Assumed demand growth: 2.2% in 2012, 5% in 2013, 4.5% therea]er

12 The informa,on in this analysis is general in nature and it is not intended to be relied upon for any specific purpose. All informa,on provided by Inge Steensland AS in connec,on to this material, whether oral or wri?en, represents the current view of Inge Steensland AS, and will be subject to change, comple,on or amendment without no,ce. Certain statements herein may include forward- looking statements (or long- term forecasts) and predic,ons. The forward- looking statements (or long- term forecasts) and predic,ons are as such always subject to changes on account of risks and uncertain,es beyond our ability to control or predict. These statements relevant to forecasts and predic,ons are based on our current assump,ons and reflect our current views. Given these factors, the recipient and any others presented with this material should not place undue reliance on the forward- looking statements (or long- term forecasts) and predic,ons. None of Inge Steensland AS or any of its employees can be held directly or indirectly liable for any consequences of reliance upon or use of the informa,on herein