Climate Change Research in support of Government Policy Implementation

Transcription

1 Climate Change Research in support of Government Policy Implementation Chris Moseki, Water Research Commission (WRC) of SA Public Hearing on Climate Change Parliament, Cape Town 18 November 2009 Pavel Kabat

2 Africa Water Week in RSA on 9 Nov 09 With energy there are alternatives, but with water there are no alternatives. Minister Trevor Manuel, MP; rightly said. That was during the official opening of the second Africa Water Week on behalf of the State President

3 Overview of the presentation Background: What is climate change, variability, vulnerability, adaptation, mitigation and impacts? How is rainfall distributed? & Drivers/controls? Context: Biophysical & hydrological impacts/responses Socio economic and related stressors Climate Change Research: Past, current & future climate change research Message to Parliamentarians Concluding Remarks

4 Background: Climate Concepts Climate variability is a short term variation (months to few years) Climate change signifies trend over longer time (decades to centuries) superimposed over variability.

5 Background: Climate Concepts (2) Vulnerability: (i.e. level of susceptibility or sensitivity to change) is the degree to which a system (i.e. community, nation, resources) copes to climate change impacts Adaptation: (i.e. capacity to withstand climate change impacts) is ability to adjust to climate change or to be resilient to impacts Greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane & nitrous oxide) gases in atmosphere that cause global warming by trapping heat Mitigation: [actions to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions] achieved by shifting from fossil fuel burning technology to climate friendly options

6 Background: Climate Change Impacts Climate Change impacts Change in rainfall patterns, frequency, distribution or intensity Temperature rise (due to heat trapped by GHGs) Rise in sea level (as water expands due to increased temperature or as ice caps melt and water fills the oceans)

7 At continental scale: Climate Vulnerability

8 Rainfall decreases from more than 1100mm/year in the East to less than 350mm/year in the Western parts

9 Rainfall in Southern Africa (After: WRC UNEP 2009) Rainfall in southern Africa is strongly influenced by the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The wet season occurs when the ITCZ moves south bringing rainfall and the dry season occurs when the ITCZ retreats northward. In a normal southern African rainy season, the ITCZ influence covers central Tanzania to southern Zimbabwe and is associated with favourable rainfall. The Botswana High pressure system tends to push the ITCZ away, resulting in periods of drought.

10 Overview of Current Water Resources Status In some but not all El Niño events, Southern Africa will be unusally dry and warm during the December to February period. During La Niña events, Southern Africa shows a tendency toward wet and cool conditions from December to February.

11 Climate Change Predictions Impacts of climate change on water resources (after Goulden et al, 2008) Predicted rainfall and runoff changes for southern and eastern Africa. (Left hand figure represents predicted change in annual precipitation for the year 2050, Right hand figure represents predicted change in runoff for the year 2050). (Source: Schulze, Meigh and Horan, 2001)

12 Regional Climate Model predictions Source: Climate Systems Analysis Group, UCT Stretch; 2009.with increased frequency of extreme events

13 Responses: Rainfall - Runoff relationship is non-linear 700 Mean Annual Runoff (mm) Schulze, 2009 Mean Annual Precipitation (mm)

14 Responses: Land degradation & overgrazing Severe land degradation in Limpopo & northern parts of Botswana; coupled with shrinking forage for livestock cause challenges Schulze, UKZN; 2007 Carter, Cranfield Univ.UK; 2009

15 Responses: along coastal areas (Likely) challenges (commonly encountered): Rainfall & evapotranspiration are highly variable Experience extended dry seasons & heavy rainfall (eastern parts) Extreme weather events, cyclones & sea level rise Infrastructure challenges (e.g. inadequate storage) Vulnerable low lying communities (e.g. cape Flats) After, LaquaR Consultants CC, 2008 After, Andrew Mather, 2009

16 Responses: health hazards.

17 Impact of climate change on water quality CC and Eutrophication (Source: O-SRB PreTDA, 2008)

18 Population growth, urbanization, drought, floods and other challenges High regional population density (20 25 persons km 2 in Limpopo), urbanization rate and limited resources pose serious challenges in light of: Persistence droughts, frequent floods, low yields in agricultural production and economic refugees Other challenges include Inadequate infrastructure (lack of storage capacity) Overuse, water quality, health & food insecurity Institutional & governance (protocol?) & information Pachauri, IPCC 2007 UN/ISDR 2008 Gariep,Heyns; 2007

19 Climate Change impacts in SADC (One World, 2009)

20 What contribution has WRC made. to date?

21 Investment in climate studies & climate change research over the years The WRC invested over R34m on climate studies, (about 36 projects completed). Some examples: Rainfall forecasts, rainfall enhancement technology Regional climate change modeling & downscaling Impacts of climate change on water resources in SA Climate change strategies for small municipalities These studies cover vast fields/areas, including: Water resources & supply, agriculture, health, Additional to: rainwater & fog harvesting, groundwater recharge, desalination of sea water, etc

22 Current climate change research projects There are currently 10 climate change related projects running during this financial year (at a total investment of R18m). Some examples: Evaluation of the sensitivity of socio economic activities to climate change (K5/1843 on the sheet) Tropical systems from the SW Indian Ocean into SA: Impacts, dynamics & projected changes (K5/1847) Adaptive interventions in agriculture to reduce vulnerability of different farming systems to climate change in South Africa (K5/1882) Land reclamation Seychelles

23 What is planned for the next financial year?

24 Planned climate change research (starts on 1 April 2010) For the next financial year the WRC has already began to commission 5 more projects (budget = R10m), besides non solicited projects; e.g. Development of decision support guidelines for vulnerability assessments and adaptation needs for rural economies and communities (building resilience) Developing water related climate change adaptation options to support policy and strategies for Water for Sustainable Growth and Development (mainstreaming) The role of local institutions in adaptation of rural and urban communities to climate change impacts on water access and use (complement indigenous knowledge)

25 What is intended for the medium term?

26 The possible climate change research in future Downscaling of climate models to catchment and local scale To assist resource managers, farmers and communities with climate tools at appropriate scale Reducing uncertainties or improving the level(s) of confidence in model predictions Uncertainties due to assumptions made, estimated input variables, etc Impact of climate change on groundwater Impacts on recharge & saline intrusion is qualitative Climate change and health, water quality, etc

27 Special message for the leadership At international level parliamentarians need to: Legally binding, in line with the Convention outcome Insist on adaptation (by GEF, etc) fund that is predictable, adequate and accessible Technology transfer and capacity building by developed countries for developing countries At national level Create and sustain enabling environment Support, encourage and insist on environmentally friendly options and appropriate adaptation actions Enhanced focus on support to adaptation action through mainstreaming of climate change into policy

28 Concluding remarks Dependency on natural resources & inadequate adaptive capacity makes us vulnerable, while Projected climate change is likely to exacerbate the situation (hydrological responses amplifies effects) Support by research, to policy implementation, is crucial (i.e. necessary & essential) Mainstream climate change in policy implementation Balance between socio economic & hydrological responses to climate change is important Our Government leads by enabling THANK YOU