Air Pollution & Climate Change: Two Sides of The Same Coin

Transcription

1 Air Pollution & Climate Change: Two Sides of The Same Coin Fiona O'Connor, Met Office Hadley Centre, United Kingdom Rita van Dingenen, Joint Research Centre, European Commission Sir Andy Haines, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine Pam Pearson, International Cryosphere Climate initiative (ICCI) Liu Qiyong, Center for Disease Control and Prevention, China Diarmid Campbell-Lendrum, World Health Organization

2 Air quality affects climate, and vice versa Fig 8.17: IPCC 5 th assessment report Climate change affects air pollution: But the level and type of emissions are more important. Abundance-based RF from Fig 8.15: IPCC 5 th assessment report Emissions-based RF updated from Shindell et al. (2005) Air pollution affects climate: Most sources contribute to both air pollution and climate change. But some have a cooling effect: Pollution control will unmask some warming. Health and equity demands that we control anyway.

3 Climate health win:wins are possible: but not automatic Von Schneidemesser & Monks (2013)

4 The pathway we follow is important Action on CO 2 dominates long term climate change. Addressing SLCPs brings quick health and climate gains: why wait?

5 Overall, mitigation policies save lives: Human health: avoided premature mortality With large regional variations Unpublished work do not cite or reproduce (In press, Nature Communications)

6 The Cost health of mitigation gains vs value from of mitigation air quality co-benefits largely or completely compensate costs Unpublished work do not cite or reproduce (In press, Nature Communications)

7 Action needs to happen source by source: Open burning Burning increasingly seen as PRIMARY source of air pollution Degrades soil fertility and structure, increasing fertilizer use, run-off and water pollution Releases methane, CO, CO 2 - and is the single largest source of black carbon globally (36%) Reduction of open burning may be the single largest AND most cost-effective mitigation option for health, food security and climate 7

8 CC, AP and Health interacts with other development objectives: China Developing economy Struggling with poverty Improving living standard Urbanization Industrialization Ecosystem disruption Environment degradation Air pollution GHG emissions Dangerous climate change

9 Fast progress can be made from a bad starting position In 2013, 99.6% of Chinese population lived in areas exceeding WHO s PM2.5 guideline of 10 µg/m 3 (GBD MAPS Working Group, 2016). Population distribution of deaths caused by Outdoor air pollution

10 CC & AP policies can be complementary China INDC to Paris agreement To achieve peak CO 2 emissions around 2030, making best efforts to peak early; To lower CO 2 emissions per unit of GDP by 60% to 65% from the 2005 level; To increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 20%; Three-year Plan on Defending the Blue Sky 2018/11/7 Indicators Targets ( By 2020, compared to 2015) Total emissions of SO 2 and NO x Decline by more than 15% Concentration of PM 2.5 in the cities which were not up to standard at and above the prefectural level Proportion of days with good air quality in the cities at and above the prefectural level (%) Proportion of days with heavy and above pollution days in the cities at and above the prefectural level (%) Decline by more than 18% Reach 80% Decline by more than 25%

11 Gains can be significant: longer, healthier lives for Chinese citizens Statistical loss of life expectancy in China due to anthropogenic PM2.5 for the Baseline (left panel) and Mitigation (right panel) scenarios in 2050.(Peter Rafaj et al. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change,2012)

12 Conclusions Alternative pathways exist, and support sustainable development: family health, economic and food security, resilience. Broad-based global climate action brings substantial air quality co-benefits While climate benefits of GHG mitigation are global and longterm, health benefits are local and short term Change can come fast: From reductions in open burning, to already passing peak pollution in China Don t demonize your target audience: People don t want to pollute, but need alternatives and support for transition BRING THE ATMOSPHERE BACK DOWN TO EARTH

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