SEPTEMBER 2018 UPDATE

Transcription

1 SEPTEMBER 2018 UPDATE 1

2 Started Sept 2010, fourth Storm since Nov 1998 history of discipline with capex & focus on per share growth Market cap $360 MM ($3/share), TSX symbol SRX 121 MM shares + 8 MM options officer + director ownership 12% (15% FD) INTRODUCTION moved totsx from TSX-V eff Sep 27/17 Growth from Montney at Umbach/Nig/Fireweed (NE BC) large land position with multi-year hz drilling inventory increasing liquids prod n & reducing costs continuing to improve hz rates & reserves Achieving per share growth in prod n & funds flow H1/18: funds flow $47 MM or $0.39/share, +62% per share YOY 19,618 boe/d +27% per share YOY cond & NGL 3,577 bpd +29% YOY (18% prod n, 39% revenue) bank line $180 MM, debt $85 MM is 0.9 X H1/18 funds flow last 12 months, spent less than funds flow ($5 MM), prod n +40% per share 2

3 PRODUCTION GROWTH prod n per share growth averaging 28% per year since 2014 Q3/18 estimate ~20,000 boe/d 3

4 improving with costs declining, liquids growth, diversified nat gas sales, better hz s FINANCIALS 2018 est +37% per share YOY H1/18-7% vs f/c prod n per share +25% YOY achieving per share growth with capex less than funds flow 4

5 history of reserve growth and declining FD&A costs RESERVES 2017 PDP is 26% of 2P (vs 24% in 2016) 2017 PDP $5.76/boe (-16% YOY) all-in reflects total capital investment 2017 PDP +32% per share YOY (1P +26%, 2P +23%) 2017 PDP 1.9 X 5

6 UMBACH/NIG/FIREWEED (NE British Columbia) Montney liquids rich gas raw gas 1,200-1,300 btu/scf 159 net sections H1/18 19,618 Boe/d 37 bbls/mmcf (57% condensate) Drill hz in days shallow depth 1,550 metres F&D $4 - $6/Boe (full-cycle) 2017 D&C $4.4 MM/hz (1750 m & 34 fracs) f/c 2018 D&C $5.0 MM/hz (>2100 m & >37 fracs) avg 2P for 2017 hz s: 6.6 Bcf raw or 1,180 Mboe sales 0.2% - 1.2% H 2 S requires processing at sour gas plant McMahon GP has access to 3 sales pipelines Montney producing hz s in grey 6

7 LARGE LAND POSITION 159 net sections 112,000 net acres Growth from Umbach, Nig, & Fireweed areas higher condensate at Nig, Fireweed, South Umbach Montney productive across the area learning from offsetting hz results early stage 65 net hz s drilled ~8% lands developed 2P on 22% of lands Montney producing hz s in red 7

8 UMBACH Growth contingent on Stn 2 price 113 net sections, 61 net hz s drilled Currently ~85 mmcf/d raw Field compression 150 mmcf/d raw ~27,000 boe/d sales, 17% liquids waiting for higher Stn 2 price: 7 standing hz s (2 completed) ~7 mmcf/d currently shut-in requires ~50 hz s to maintain current prod n for 10 years assuming 7.5 bcf/hz Q4/18 Q1/19 hz drills 8

9 attractive full-cycle ROR at Stn 2 $1.25/GJ & WTI US$60/bbl NIG Develop net sections, 3 hz s drilled Currently ~25 mmcf/d raw sent to Umbach until gas plant starts up 50 mmcf/d sour gas plant Q4/19-Q1/20 ~10,000 boe/d sales, 26% liquids start-up timing depends on regulatory & construction drilled & completed 3 hz s at Nig in Q1/18, best hz s since inception! gas plant forecast to increase liquids recovery 22 bbls/mmcf (+1,100 bpd) and reduces op cost to ~$2/boe Q4/18 Q1/19 hz drills grow to 50 mmcf/d and maintain for 10 years with 32 hz s assuming 9 bcf/hz lower H 2 S 0.2% 9

10 attractive full-cycle ROR at Stn 2 $1.25/GJ & WTI US$60/bbl FIREWEED Q4/18 Q1/19 hz drills based on offsetting hz s, forecast field CGR bbls/mmcf raw (lifetime avg) grow to 50 mmcf/d and maintain for 10 years with 42 hz s assuming 7 bcf/hz Develop net sections, 1 hz drilled JV with privateco (SRX 50% WI) 50 mmcf/d field compression mid-2020 ~5,000 boe/d sales net, 26% liquids expand to 100 mmcf/d

11 RESULTS IMPROVING WITH LONGER HZ S 11

12 2017 HZ S ARE BETTER 12

13 2018 HZ S ARE BEST TO DATE 13

14 CONDENSATE RATES ALSO IMPROVING 14

15 UMBACH HZ COSTS longer hz s more expensive but, cost per metre decreasing & rate/reserves increasing which reduces FD&A! actual accounting system costs, incl everything (lease & road construction, water handling) royalty credits not subtracted DRILLING hz s length cost m $2.0 MM m $2.0 MM 2018 COMPL N hz s fracs length cost m $2.3 MM m $2.4 MM m $3.0 MM 15

16 Nig bbls/mmcf 50 mmcf/d sour gas plant Q4/19 Q1/20 ($81 MM) op cost ~$2/boe Fireweed bbls/mmcf 50 mmcf/d field compression mid-2020 (Phase I $35 MM) Nig & Fireweed increase corporate liquids prod n Umbach infrastructure capacity ~27,000 boe/d 34 bbls/mmcf growth contingent on Stn 2 price Fund growth with free cash flow plus debt FUTURE GROWTH prelim 2019 budget uses Stn 2 $1.25/GJ & WTI US$60 est 2018 maintenance capex ~$60 MM vs est funds flow ~$90 MM est 2019 maintenance capex ~$20 MM 16

17 GROWTH INCREASES LIQUIDS PROD N Increasing liquids production with growth from Nig & Fireweed Total field CGR Liquids cond/c5+ (life avg) Mbbls Mbbls bbls/mmcf raw Umbach 7.5 Bcf (1) & McMahon GP 230 (2) Nig 9.0 Bcf (1) & McMahon GP 300 (2) (1) Nig 9.0 Bcf (1) & Storm Nig GP 495 (3) (1) Fireweed 7 Bcf (1) & McMahon GP 375 (2) (1) (1) Storm management estimate (2) McMahon GP estimated shrink 11%, plant liquids 21 bbls/mmcf (37% C5+) (3) Storm Nig GP estimated shrink 6%, plant liquids bbls/mmcf (22% C5+) using Nig 9 Bcf hz & Storm gas plant with H1/18 pricing, lifetime cond/c5+ net revenue ~$14 MM vs hz cost ~$5 MM [H1/18: WTI US$65/bbl, Storm cond price $81/bbl or $69/bbl net transportation & royalties] 17

18 incremental nat gas sold at Stn 2 (corp avg price is higher) ECONOMICS AT STN 2 $1.25/GJ Umbach - McMahon GP Nig - Storm gas plant 7.5 Bcf/hz 9.0 Bcf/hz 1,340 Mboe sales, 17% liquids 1,900 Mboe sales, 26% liquids 1 st Yr Avg 4.0 mmcf/d sales bpd 5.0 mmcf/d sales bpd Flat Pricing Stn 2 $1.25/GJ, FX Stn 2 $1.25/GJ Edm light $67/bbl (WTI $60) Edm light $67/bbl (WTI $60) Revenue $17.00/boe ($1.56/mcf, $55/bbl) $19.00/boe ($1.45/mcf, $45/bbl) Transportation -$1.65 ($0.24/mcf, $2.60/bbl) -$2.70 ($0.36/mcf, $3.90/bbl) Op Cost -$5.35 -$1.75 Royalty -4.5% (9% after hz credit used) -5.0% (8% after hz credit used) Netback 1 st Year $9.20/boe $13.60/boe Half-cycle capex $5.35 MM $5.35 MM F&D $4/boe $3/boe btax ROR 21% 68% payout 3.1 yrs 0.9 yrs Full-cycle capex $6.7 MM +$0.25 MM/hz gathering $9.45 MM +$1.1 MM/hz facility F&D $5/boe $5/boe [70 mmcf/d field comp btax ROR 13% $32 MM divided by 30 27% hz s first 3 yrs] payout 4.7 yrs 2.4 yrs drill $2.0 MM/hz compl n $3.0 MM/hz tie-in $0.35 MM/hz +$0.25 MM/hz gathering +$3.85 MM/hz plant [50 mmcf/d gas plant $81 MM divided by 21 hz s first 5 yrs] Stn 2 >$1.60/GJ for growth at Umbach (full-cycle ROR >20%) WTI $65 or Stn 2 $1.50, Nig ROR +5% 18

19 GUIDANCE capex uses D&C ~$5.0 MM/hz corporate decline ~32% (wells prod Dec/16 to Dec/17) assumes Nig GP starts Jan/20 9 bcf type curve for future hz s 19

20 Storm s diversified sales mitigating price volatility (approx 60% Chicago, 15% AECO, 15% Stn 2, 10% Sumas) W Cdn prices weak since mid-2017 from prod n growth (NGTL USJR +1 bcf/d YOY) DIVERSIFIED NATURAL GAS SALES Stn 2 attractive vs AECO, pipeline expansions moving more nat gas to AECO 20

21 Objective is per share growth of prod n & funds flow SUMMARY Montney at Umbach/Nig/Fireweed is a large, higher quality, liquids rich resource multi-year hz drilling inventory, continuing to improve rates/reserves Financial results improving with better hz s, cost reductions, liquids growth, and diversified nat gas sales 12 months to Q2/18, capex < funds flow ($5 MM), prod n +40%/share Free cash flow plus debt funds growth from Nig ( ), Fireweed (2020), and Umbach (cont on Stn 2 price) increasing liquids prod n & reducing op cost growth assumes Stn 2 $1.25/GJ and WTI $60 estimated maintenance capex $60 MM in 2018, $20 MM in

22 STORM RESOURCES LTD CONTACT INFO For further information please contact: Brian Lavergne, President and Chief Executive Officer Michael Hearn, Chief Financial Officer Carol Knudsen, Manager Corporate Affairs Address: #200, th Avenue S.W., Calgary, Alberta T2P 3G4 Phone: (403) Fax: (403) Website: 22

23 ADVISORY Reserves All reserves in this presentation are, unless indicated otherwise, as at December 31, 2017 as evaluated by Insite Petroleum Consultants Ltd. in accordance with the definitions, standards and procedures contained in the Canadian Oil and Gas Evaluation Handbook and National Instrument Standards for Disclosure for Oil and Gas Activities. Boe Presentation - for the purpose of calculating unit revenues and costs, natural gas is converted to a barrel of oil equivalent ( Boe ) using six thousand cubic feet ( Mcf ) of natural gas equal to one barrel of oil unless otherwise stated. Barrels of oil equivalent ( Boe ) may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A Boe conversion ratio of six Mcf to one barrel ( bbl ) is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. All Boe measurements and conversions in this report are derived by converting natural gas to oil in the ratio of six thousand cubic feet of gas to one barrel of oil. Type Curves Certain type curves presented herein represent estimates of production decline and ultimate volumes expected to be recovered over the life of a well. The 9.0 Bcf raw (represents the ultimate volume expected to be recovered over the life of a well based on the type curve) with 5.4 mmcf/d IP365 (which represents the average 365 day initial production rate) and the 7.5 Bcf raw with 4.4 mmcf/d IP365 Upper Montney type curves are generated by Storm management using the same decline profile as used by InSite in the 2017 reserve evaluation. Individual wells may be higher or lower but, over a larger number of wells, management expects the average to align to the type curve. Forward-Looking Information - certain information set forth in this presentation, including management s assessment of Storm s future plans and operations, contains forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current beliefs and expectations based on the information available at the time the applicable assumptions were made. By their nature, forward-looking statements are subject to numerous risks, uncertainties and assumptions, some of which are beyond the Company s control, including the material risks described in Storm s Annual Information Form dated March 29, 2018 under Risk Factors and Management s Discussion and Analysis for the year ending December 31, 2017 under Business Risks, the effect of general economic conditions, industry conditions, volatility of commodity prices, currency fluctuations, imprecision of reserve estimates, environmental risks, competition from other industry participants, the lack of availability of qualified personnel or management, stock market volatility and ability to access sufficient capital from internal and external sources. Readers are advised that the assumptions used in the preparation of such information, although considered reasonable at the time of preparation, may prove to be imprecise and, as such, undue reliance should not be placed on forward-looking statements. Storm s actual results, performance or achievement, could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these forward-looking statements. Storm disclaims any intention or obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required under securities law. Reference is made to Forward-Looking Statements in Storm s Management s Discussion and Analysis for the period ending June 30, 2018 dated August 14, 2018 which may be found on Storm s website at or on SEDAR at and which are hereby incorporated by reference in this presentationand which outline a number of assumptions, risks, and uncertainties associated with forward-looking statements. 23

24 APPENDIX

25 UMBACH CUM GAS VS TIME

26 UMBACH CUM CONDENSATE VS TIME

27 BC OGC INTERIM SURFACE ACCESS RULES intention is to reduce/minimize surface disturbance Announced July 16, 2018 interim measures for new applications designed to address concerns regarding development in Blueberry River First Nations ( BRFN ) critical areas while supporting development of resources in specific areas Area 2 objective is restricted new surface disturbance, additional review if not on private land, agricultural reserve, existing cut block, existing lease Areas 1 & 3 objective is no new surface disturbance, additional review & offset restoration (likely 4:1)

28 growing prod n & funds flow on per share basis Average Boe/d per MM shares Q4 Boe/d FX $US/$Cdn Chicago US$/mmbtu AECO $/GJ BC STN 2 $/GJ WTI $US/bbl Edmonton light $/bbl Net Revenue ($/Boe) Operating Cost ($/Boe) Royalty (% revenue) Hedging ($/Boe) Cash G&A (MM) Interest (MM) Funds Flow (MM) per share 2018 f/c prod n +27% YOY & funds flow +37% YOY 2018 Forecast (prices actual to date & approx fwd strip Aug 8/18) 20,000 20, ,000-21, $2.70 $1.45 $1.35 $66 $76 $ $21.50 ($5.75) (5% - 7%) ($0.50) ($1.00) $6.0 - $7.0 $4.0 $85 - $90 $ $0.74 FINANCIAL GUIDANCE , , $2.90 $2.04 $1.49 $51 $63 $20.33 ($6.04) (5.6%) ($0.40) $6.2 $3.9 $64 $ , , $2.47 $2.05 $1.64 $43 $53 $15.52 ($6.78) (4.9%) $0.93 $5.3 $3.3 $34 $0.29 9, , $2.76 $2.55 $1.70 $49 $57 $17.51 ($8.00) (4.6%) $4.20 $5.5 $2.3 $39 $0.34 CAPEX (MM) $80 $82 $65 $71 Year End Debt (MM) $96 - $101 $106 $90 $ capex incl $14 MM for Nig GP

29 Hedging to support growth HEDGING (to Sep 6/18) 50% of prod n hedged 1 to 12 months, 25% hedged 13 to 24 months H2/18: 45,500 mmbtu/d Chicago Cdn$3.42/mmbtu (1) 38.3 $4.05/mcf 11,500 mmbtu/d Sumas Cdn$2.92/mmbtu 9.7 $3.46/mcf 3,500 GJ/d AECO $1.93/GJ 2.8 $2.41/mcf 3,500 GJ/d Stn 2 $1.73/GJ 2.8 $2.16/mcf 3,000 GJ/d Stn 2 AECO diff -$0.35/GJ 800 bpd WTI Cdn$67 X $78/bbl 700 bpd WTI Cdn$65/bbl 300 bpd Conway propane Cdn$40/bbl 2019: growth is not hedged 35,500 mmbtu/d Chicago Cdn$3.25/mmbtu (1) 30.0 $3.85/mcf 4,500 mmbtu/d Sumas Cdn$2.55/mmbtu 3.8 $3.03/mcf 2,250 GJ/d AECO $1.93/GJ 1.8 $2.41/mcf 2,250 GJ/d Stn 2 $1.73/GJ 1.8 $2.16/mcf 725 bpd WTI Cdn$70 X $82/bbl 575 bpd WTI Cdn$78/bbl 200 bpd Conway propane Cdn$43/bbl (1) deduct ~Cdn$1.25/mmbtu from Chicago price for transportation (tariff + fuel) accelerating 2019 hedging to support growth

30 Firm processing totals 80 mmcf/d raw H1/18 ~105 mmcf/d raw McMahon GP 65 mmcf/d raw & Stoddart GP 15 mmcf/d raw McMahon processing deal started Jan/17, reduced op cost ~15% Transportation commitments provide sales diversification Chicago 55 mmcf/d Alliance Chicago 0-14 ATP 5 Stn 2 17 Stn 2/Sumas* 12 AECO mmcf/d *physical sale at Stn 2 for Sumas price -US$0.69/mmbtu PROCESSING & TRANSPORTATION H1/18 sales 65% Chicago incremental growth to Stn 2 avoid overcommitting, reduces flexibility

31 PLANTGATE NAT GAS PRICE AT 2019 FWD STRIP 2019 FWD STRIP (Aug 10/18) NYMEX US$2.81/mmbtu NYMEX - Chicago diff - US$0.16/mmbtu FX 1.30 AECO $1.70/GJ AECO Stn 2 diff -$0.23/GJ Sell at AECO (Spectra + TCPL pipelines) AECO TCPL & Spectra fuel TCPL & Spectra 5 yr McMahon GP firm transport & marketing: remainder on IT to Chicago or Stn 2 actual price net transport: H1/18 $2.38/mcf 2017 $2.51/mcf $1.70/GJ -$0.04/GJ -$0.40/GJ Cdn$1.26/GJ $1.57/mcf Sell in Chicago (Alliance pipeline) Chicago price Chicago price Alliance fuel Alliance McMahon GP US$2.65/mmbtu Cdn$3.26/GJ -Cdn$0.17/GJ -Cdn$1.15/GJ Cdn$1.94/GJ $2.42/mcf Sell at Stn 2 (Spectra T-north pipeline) Stn 2 Spectra fuel Spectra 5 yr tariff + McMahon GP Alliance Pipeline to Chicago 55 mmcf/d (69,000 GJ/d) Chicago price less pipeline tariff + fuel ~$1.33/GJ Alliance Pipeline to ATP 5 mmcf/d (6,000 GJ/d) ATP price less pipeline tariff + fuel ~$0.59/GJ Spectra T-north 29 mmcf/d (36,000 GJ/d) 17 mmcf/d Stn 2 price less pipeline tariff + fuel ~$0.18/GJ $1.47/GJ -$0.01/GJ -$0.17/GJ Cdn$1.29/GJ $1.61/mcf high heat content nat gas 1.25 GJ = 1 mcf 12 mmcf/d Sumas price -US$0.69/mmbtu less pipeline tariff + fuel ~$0.18/GJ Spectra T-north & TCPL (Groundbirch) 13 mmcf/d (16,000 GJ/d) AECO price less pipeline tariff + fuel ~$0.45/GJ Alliance PITS to Chicago (interruptible) up to 15 mmcf/d or 25% of firm Chicago price less pipeline tariff + fuel ~$ $1.49/GJ

32 US NAT GAS DEMAND > SUPPLY LAST 12 MONTHS Increasing US prod n offset by rising demand & exports LNG export capacity to ~9 bcf/d by end 2019 price risk near-term; does Marcellus/Utica prod n grow to fill new pipelines adding ~3.5 bcf/d by end 2018 (Rover, Atlantic Sunrise, Nexus)? storage -643 bcf YOY (Aug 31/18)

33 US NAT GAS DEMAND CONTINUING TO INCREASE US nat gas consumption increasing for past 25+ years 2017 world LNG demand +3.5 Bcf/d YOY (+10%) with China +1.5 bcf/d YOY renewables need nat gas (wind & solar are variable)