Integrated global ocean databases for documenting ocean variability: need for open and unrestricted use of international scientific data

Transcription

1 Integrated global ocean databases for documenting ocean variability: need for open and unrestricted use of international scientific data Hernan E. Garcia, PhD National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) United Nations Open-ended Informal Consultative Process on Oceans and the Law of the Sea The effects of climate change on oceans (15-19 May 2017) NOAA Satellite and Information Service National Centers for Environmental Information 1

2 Outline Need for the Global Ocean Climate Enterprise What: Need for global open access and unrestricted use of scientific historical and modern data How: Integration of global observations into common format databases via inter-operable data systems to enable melding data with modeling and analysis. Why: Insight and foresight for all nations to develop informed courses of action in response to Earth-system changes Models and Analysis Ocean Observational Systems 2

3 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR5 (2014) Global patterns attributed to climate change Figure SPM.2 Global patterns of impacts in recent decades attributed to climate change, based on studies since the AR4. Impacts are shown at a range of geographic scales. Symbols indicate categories of attributed impacts, the relative contribution of climate change (major or minor) to the observed impact, and confidence in attribution. Source: IPCC, 2014: Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L.White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp

4 Polar ice and glacier loss polar rate: ± 5900 km 2 /yr (~-1.5 ± 0.3%/decade; Parkinson, 2014) Loss: ~2M km 2 Perimeter of Sperry Glacier in U.S. Glacier National Park, Montana in 1966,1998, 2005, and Elevation Range: Approximately meters. Photograph: U.S. Geological Survey. Source: Source: See also Parkinson C. L Global Sea Ice Coverage from Satellite Data: Annual Cycle and 35-Yr Trends. American Meteorological Society. DOI: 4

5 Sea Level Rise: Impact of 6 meter (red) Source: hp?id=184 Mean Sea Level Change 5

6 The U.S. has sustained 208 billion-dollar weather and climate disasters since 1980 where overall total damages/costs > $1.1 trillion and 9660 deaths. Source: NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters (2017). 6

7 One country cannot afford the observational system needed to monitor the entire Earth. International open scientific data sharing and integration into products is critical to generate on demand information for mitigation and adaptation decision-making. 7

8 The Big Picture: Why global full and open data access? Data are a public good: Scientific data acquire valueadded through their ability to inform decisions-makers responding to environmental variability. Return on investment on public data: Supports new research insights and innovations in data products and services (e.g., Research to Operations). Technical collaboration: Enables countries to participate in and benefit from more reliable global scientific assessments (e.g., Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC]) 8

9 Making Data Useful Earth Observing Systems Research-quality products for decision-making Snowfall Impact Index FEMA Tsunami Warning Emergenc y Managers Heating & Cooling Degree Days Energy Sector Global environmental data archives with valuable international data sources. Scientific Data Stewardship Hurricane Tracks Emergency Planners Annual State of the Climate Reports Decision Makers IPCC & National Climate Assessments Gov t Policymakers Coastal Digital Elevation Models Hazard Mitigation Global & U.S. Climate Summaries Numerous Sectors Billion $ Disasters, Climate Extremes Index Insurance Solar Activity/Sun Spots Power Distribution Temperature & Precipitation Outlooks Agriculture Climate Normals Construction, Infrastructure, Agriculture 9

10 NOAA Environmental Future Data Volumes Data Archive: Current and Expected Volumes 2016 ~29 Petabytes Due to increase in satellite and model data 32 PB = Stack of ~1M smart phones ~9x taller than the world's tallest structure: Burj Khalifa in Dubai (~830 m) 10

11 World Ocean Database (WOD) World s largest publicly available uniform format quality controlled and documented ocean profile database ~14.9M profiles (1772-present) GCOS sub-surface Essential Climate Variables Multiple Instruments Science peer-review citations Data Sources (OSD) International (~86%) USA (~14%) Data sharing Digital & Non-digital Data Sources MBT cards PFL WOCE CLIVAR XBT Instrumental Record Casts OSD: ~3.2M MBT: ~2.4M XBT: ~2.3M CTD: ~1.0M APB: ~1.7M MRB: ~1.5M PFL: ~1.6M GLD: ~0.9M All data openly and freely available online (WODSelect) ( 11

12 World Ocean Atlas (WOA) Climatologies ¼ Temperature & Salinity 12

13 Argo global ocean observations 13

14 World Ocean Database: Ocean Heat Calculated Quarterly from integrating historical and modern available ocean data 1 1) World Ocean Database aggregates data quarterly (shown Oct. Dec. 2016): Argo (grey), tropical moored buoys (black), XBTs (red), CTDs (dark green), ice tethered buoys (light green), pinniped mounted (light blue), gliders (orange) 2) Ocean heat content calculated quarterly (shown Oct. Dec. 2016), red = heat increase, blue = heat decrease 3) Globally integrated ocean heat content change (0-700 m depth)

15 Integrating in situ and remote sensing data The ocean changes too quickly to be sampled by research ships, moorings, or floats. Sealevel changes seen by satellites and comparing with (ENSO). The El Niño affected the agriculture, food security and nutritional status of > 60 million people around the globe based on the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) Source: Source: 15

16 Where to share ocean data worldwide? World Data System (WDS) - International Council for Science (ICSU) World Data Service Oceanography 16

17 Summary All nations are vulnerable to the impacts of global climate variability. A global ocean climate data enterprise is needed to inform decision making. While many historical oceanographic data have been integrated in public access databases such as the World Ocean Database, much valuable international data still remains unavailable for use by the scientific community. Deriving reliable science-based information will require a planet-wide collaboration to openly share and integrate the available data into global databases for analysis and modeling. 17

18 Thank You Acknowledgments: Thanks to Tim Boyer and my colleagues in the Ocean Climate Laboratory group at NOAA s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). Thanks to all scientists and data managers worldwide for sharing their data as part of the World Ocean Database and the World Data Service for Oceanography. NOAA Satellite and Information Service National Centers for Environmental Information 18

19 Source: 19

20 Climate change definition Climate change refers to a statistically significant variation in either the mean state of the climate or in its variability, persisting for an extended period (typically decades or longer). Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings, or to persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use. International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) /518.htm Figure from 20