January 30, 2010 National Conference of State Legislatures Savannah, Georgia. Christopher B. McGill Managing Director, Policy Analysis

Transcription

1 January 30, 2010 National Conference of State Legislatures Savannah, Georgia Christopher B. McGill Managing Director, Policy Analysis

2 U.S. Natural Gas Supply and Infrastructure Additions Points of Discussion Stability of domestic natural gas supply Underground storage Long-term supply abundance and diversity Pipeline and storage infrastructure Liquefied natural gas Pipeline imports from Canada

3 Billion Cubic Feet per Day U.S. NATURAL GAS SUPPLY ( ) Average Daily U.S. Natural Gas Supply LNG Canadian Imports U.S. Production Source: Benter Energy LLC, Energy Market Fundamentals.

4 Billion Cubic Feet per day U.S. NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION AND SAMPLE (JANUARY 21, 2010) Total Production Ext. Loss 2.5 Appalachia 2.0 Mid-Con 4.3 West 12.8 Gulf Source: Benter Energy LLC, Energy Market Fundamentals, January 21, 2010.

5 Billion Cubic Feet per day 80.0 Natural Gas Supply Sources (July 1-December 31, 2009) LNG Imports Canada Imports US Production July December Source: Benter Energy LLC, Energy Market Fundamentals, December 31, 2009.

6 Data source: Potential Gas Committee (2009) U.S. Natural Gas Reserves ( )

7 Energy Information Administration Reserves and Production of Dry Natural Gas in the United States (TCU) EIA Dry Gas Year Reserves Production

8

9 U.S. Natural Gas Infrastructure Additions Underground Storage Working Gas(Bcf) Estimated Peak Capacity Working Gas(Bcf) Design Capacity April ,789 4,136 April ,889 4,313 Source: Estimates of Peak Underground Working Gas Storage Capacity in the United States-2009 Update, Energy Information Administration, September 2009.

10 Bcf per day Daily U.S. Natural Gas Demand By Sector January 1, 2007-December 31, Power Gen Industrial Res/Com Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Source: Benter Energy LLC, Energy Market Fundamentals.

11 Quadrillion Btu U.S. NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR (EIA, AEO REFERENCE CASE) Power Generation CNG Pipeline Fuel Lease and Plant Fuel Industrial Commercial Residential

12 Trillion Cubic Feet U.S. Natural Gas Supply EIA, AEO Reference Case Dry Gas Production Net Imports 11

13 Natural Gas Resource Assessment of the Potential Gas Committee, 2008 (mean values) Traditional Resources Coalbed Gas Resources Total U.S. Resources Proved Reserves (EIA) Future Gas Supply 1,673.4 TCU TCU 1,836.4 TCU TCU 2,074.1 TCU POTENTIAL GAS AGENCY * Value as of year-end 2007 COLORADO SCHOOL OF MINES

14 WAVE, GOODBYE, TO WHERE WE HAVE BEEN Source: American Association of Petroleum Geologists.

15 SAY, HELLO, TO WHERE WE ARE GOING Source: J. Schieber, UT-Arlington.

16 Potential Gas Committee Determination of Future Supply of Natural Gas in the United States DOE Traditional Coal Future Cumulative Ultimate Reserves + Resources + Gas = Supply + Production = Resource , , , , , , , , , , , , ,314 1,013 2, ,312 1,053 2, , ,532 1,091 2, , ,074 1,132 3,206

17 PGC Resource Assessments, Total Potential Gas Resources (mean values) Data source: Potential Gas Committee (2009)

18 Shale Basins and the U.S. Pipeline Grid Source: American Clean Skies Foundation.

19 Shale gas and Alaska production offset declines in supply to meet consumption growth and lower import needs TCU History Projections Alaska Shale gas Coalbed methane 10 Non-associated onshore 5 Non-associated offshore 0 Associated with oil Net imports Richard Newell, SAIS, December 14, 2009 Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2010

20 U.S. Natural Gas Pipeline Infrastructure 2009

21 Additions to U.S. Natural Gas Pipeline Infrastructure ( ) (Bcf/d) ($ Billions) Added Capacity Estimated Cost Miles , , (est.) , (est.) , (est.) ,528 Source: Expansion of U.S. Natural Gas Pipeline Network: Additions in 2008 and projects through 2011, Energy Information Administration, September 2009.

22 21

23 U.S. LNG IMPORT CAPACITY 2009 Everett, MA Cove Point, MD Elba Island, GA Lake Charles, LA Gulf Gateway, LA Northeast Gateway, MA Freeport, TX Sabine, LA Hackberry, LA Total Bcfd Bcfd Bcfd Bcfd Bcfd Bcfd Bcfd Bcfd Bcfd Bcfd Source: Federal Energy Regulatory Commission

24 Mar Jan May Aug Dec Buff per day 10.0 Net U.S. Natural Gas Imports from Canada January 1- December 31, Source: Benter Energy LLC, December 31,

25 Christopher B. McGill Managing Director, Policy Analysis