Session: For more information:

Transcription

1 Session: For more information:

2 Good advice when it just ain't how it used to be Building Hydropower Business Resilience: Examples of Adaptation to Hydro-Climatic Changes Marco Braun 1 Élyse Fournier 1 David Huard 1 Jean-Christophe Amado 2 1 Ouranos Consortium Montréal, QC, Canada, 2 Deloitte Sustainability, Ottawa, ON, Canada,

3 Building Hydropower Business Resilience Adaptation Example 1: Incorporating climate change into feasibility assessments for hydropower projects

4 Climate Change Manitoba Hydro 2008 get involved with climate experts build own hydro climate task force + study observed climate study climate model projections assess future water availability from GCMs asses options using an impact model (SPLASH) 2015 set up a complex hydro model

5 Building Hydropower Business Resilience Adaptation Example 2: Energy Demand Forecasting

6 Incorporating climate change into power load forecasting Assessment of CC impacts on electricity demand increasing temperatures affect both summer cooling and winter heating demand Hydro Quebec s Distribution Division started using corrected time series for their forecasts update of temperature trends assessement of trends of winter minimum temperatures

7 Building Hydropower Business Resilience Adaptation Example 3: Building Climate Resilience in Tadjikistan

8 Kairakkum Hydropower Plant Inform modelling of the probable maximum flood (PMF) Climate data to inform hydrologic scenarios Max/Min Regret Analysis methodology developed by the Swiss Department of Energy Range of turbine upgrade scenarios Model energy production Reference: EBRD, 2014

9 Building Hydropower Business Resilience Ways and Barriers to Adaptation

10 Adaptation Prototypes RELEVANCE

11 Barriers to Adaptation RELEVANCE

12 Building Climate Resilience Climate Services

13 What is Ouranos? RTA HQ Regional climate modeling MH Ouranos Climate scenarios and services Climate impacts and adaptation studies OPG CEHQ Gov About 400 collaborators Over 100 projects completed since 2002 Partners concerned with hydropower and dam safety

14 What is Ouranos? RTA HQ Regional climate modeling MH Ouranos Climate scenarios and services Climate impacts and adaptation studies OPG CEHQ Gov About 400 collaborators Over 100 projects completed since 2002 Partners concerned with hydropower and dam safety

15 What is Ouranos? RTA HQ Regional climate modeling MH Ouranos Climate scenarios and services Climate impacts and adaptation studies OPG CEHQ Gov About 400 collaborators Over 100 projects completed since 2002 Partners concerned with hydropower and dam safety

16 What is Ouranos? RTA HQ Regional climate modeling MH Ouranos Climate scenarios and services Climate impacts and adaptation studies OPG CEHQ Gov

17 What is Ouranos? RTA HQ Regional climate modeling MH Ouranos Climate scenarios and services Climate impacts and adaptation studies OPG CEHQ Gov needs & questions models, data, tools, services and answers Climate modelling & scientific community Managers and decision makers

18 Conclusions many energy enterprises around the world have implemented adaptation measures that we can learn from ncertainties must be addressed in decision making Often known risk management approaches can to be adapted to new normal Climate Services and reliable data are at the forefront of the (Canadian) energy sector s needs in order to adapt and overcome barriers to adaptation Climate knowledge development and transfer is a long process perennity is key

19 Montréal, Québec, Canada

20 Climate Information Variety source: Isabelle Charron, A Guidbook on Climate Scenarios, 2014, Ouranos