From CC science to adaptation planning and decision making: The Ouranos experience

Transcription

1 From CC science to adaptation planning and decision making: The Ouranos experience Alain Bourque I&A Director Caroline Larrivée and Guillaume Simonet National and subnational case studies of adaptation June 30 th 2010 GoldCoast, Australia

2 Arctic conditions, difficult to access. Permafrost. North of tree line. 14 innuit villages. reservoir levels Very cold winters. Short low summers. Growing interest but social issues. Fauna ice roads Way of life destruction from loose ice productivity and capacity heat urban floods Limited access. Natural resources. Hydro-power production. Permafrost failure Very cold winters. navigation coastal erosion coastal flooding Cool summers. Small villages. rural floods vectors >90% of population lives in <10% of land. Diversified/growing economy. Cold winters. Often warm/humid summers. Main objectives Provide to decision makers: forest fires Relevant regional scale climate scenarios Assessment of impacts and vulnerabilities Facilitation of adaptation actions/planning Ville dedistricution/transport Rosemère water supply fisheries

3 ScienEfic Council Members Board of Director Chief ExecuEng Officer Administration Deputy/Minister Departments: 1. Public security 2. Environment 3. Natural Resources Adjoint Deputy Minister or Director 4. Municipal Affairs 5. Transport 6. Agriculture and Fisheries 7. Economic Development 8. Health/Social Services InformaEcs Communication CLIMATE SIMULATIONS HYDRO CLIMATIC ANALYSES REGIONAL CLIMATE CLIMATE SCENARIOS NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT MARITIME ENVIRONMENT BUILT ENVIRONEMENT NATURAL ENVIRONMENT WATER RESOURCES IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION HEALTH ENERGY PRODUCTION FORESTS RESOURCES AGRICULTURE TOURISM/LEASURE Resources: Financial, human, infrastructures, R&D and users network Contributed manager or coordinnator Contributed expert/scien9st VARIOUS LEVELS OF ENGAGMENT FROM MEMBERS IN CHARGE OF MAINSTREAMING ADAPTATION

4 CLIMATE SIMULATIONS HYDRO CLIMATIC ANALYSES REGIONAL CLIMATE CLIMATE SCENARIOS IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT HEALTH MARITIME ENVIRONMENT ENERGY PRODUCTION BUILT ENVIRONEMENT FORESTS RESOURCES NATURAL ENVIRONMENT AGRICULTURE WATER RESOURCES TOURISM/LEASURE 4 types of climate needs I&A Thematic coordinator Broader multi-stakeholder program committee Knowledge transfer Knowledge transfer Tested on pilot regions Framework: Development of knowledge and tools while promoting synergies, tech. transfert and communication Adapted from Vescovi and Bourque, 2009

5 Past climate Future climate Sea level rise Protecting ice cover reduction zoning Freeze-thaw cycle increases Control développement Increased storminess protection Portfolio of adaptation solutions +T Infrastructures retreat Modification of coastal processes submersion alteration solifluxion landslides Increases in wind intensity and wave height relocation Increases in frequency intensity of storms Acceleration of coastal erosion S3 S2 S S1 Optimistic scenario S2 Moderate scenario S3 Pessimistic scenario Mean rate in last 30 years Max decadal rate since 1930 S3 = 2 S2 S1 Cost/benefit analysis for adaptation, scenarios

6 Objective: maximize quality and usefulness of V&I&A activities by involving key Partners from the start Weight function of : Uncertainties and reliability Data and resources Vulnerability to variability Importance of non-climatic Type of users/issues «Mainstreaming» potential

7 Deputy/Minister Each have their own: Objectives Adjoint Deputy Conceptual Minister or models Director Base info Time horizons More likely Contributed to be manager effective when: or coordinnator Information salient, credible, legitimate Active multidirection communication Contributed Efforts expert/scien9st to translate Good mediation Cash et al., 2000, 2003, 2006 VARIOUS LEVELS OF Group leadership ENGAGMENT FROM MEMBERS IN CHARGE OF MAINSTREAMING ADAPTATION

8 Meeting canadian Action Plan Kyoto targets for Quebec by 2012 Mitigation: -20% by 2020! Adaptation: Broad multiministerial 2 years initiative to identifty actions to support adaptation Adaptive capacity or through 5 major roles Adaptation actions Health and Safety Monitoring Infrastructures Forests Water resources Ouranos