C- AGG Mee(ng. Research Fellow Na(onal Renewable Energy Laboratory.

Transcription

1 C- AGG Mee(ng Research Fellow Na(onal Renewable Energy Laboratory

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4 Can the US agriculture adapt to and mi8gate CC at landscape/watershed level? h;p://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/sectors/agriculture

5 IPCC reports are the result of extensive work from scien8sts around the world. 1 Summary for Policymakers 1 Technical Summary 16 Chapters 235 Authors 900 Reviewers More than 2000 pages Close to 10,000 references More than 38,000 comments

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7 GHG emissions accelerate despite reduc8on efforts. Most emission growth is CO 2 from fossil fuel combus8on and industrial processes. h;p://report.mi(ga(on2014.org/spm/ipcc_wg3_ar5_summary- for- policymakers_approved.pdf

8 AFOLU net emissions decreasing high uncertain8es (Chapter 11)

9 Role of Bioenergy: mitigation potential is uncertain, although there are conditions in which there are bioenergy options of low carbon intensity

10 AGRICULTURE, FORESTRY AND OTHER LAND USE Major Climate Change Mi8ga8on Op8ons Afforesta(on TOTAL CARBON POOL SIZE Bioenergy with CCS NEED LARGE SCALE BIOENERGY Another example could be biochar and bioenergy Technology improvements in small scale bioenergy with mul(ple co- benefits Major Climate Change Source Reduc8on Op8ons Reduce deforesta(on Increase plant yields without major addi8ons of fer8lizers Promote dietary changes Keep wood products for longer (me in use; replace energy intensive products with biobased materials Bioenergy Appendix, Chapter 11 AFOLU: h;p://report.mi(ga(on2014.org/dra^s/final- dra^- postplenary/ipcc_wg3_ar5_final- dra^_postplenary_chapter11.pdf

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12 GHG emissions included from a biogeochemical sources: CO2, CH4, N2O, NOx,

13 Models suggest that local biogeophysical effects can cause cooling replacing annuals with perennial crops What is the impact of perennial borders on corn fields? 2 m root depth

14 Landscape design

15 Updated Inventory EPA issued 2014 (h;p:// Sources

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17 . Life Cycle Impact Assessments follow elementary flows across the boundary limits of the bioenergy chain. Acidifica8on: Accumulated excess, characterizing the quan(ty of acidifying substances, and the specific loca(on of the emissions in rela(on to sensi(ve area in terrestrial and main freshwater ecosystems, to which acidifying substances deposit; Climate change: Global Warming Poten(al calculated from the radia(ve forcing over a 100- year (me horizon, used to express greenhouse gas emissions in CO2 mass equivalent; Deple8on of abio8c resources: quan(ty of resources used rela(ve to quan(ty in reserve. Applies to minerals, fossil fuels, water, etc. Ecotoxicity: by examining the poten(ally affected frac(on of species integrated over (me and volume per unit mass of a chemical emi;ed (terrestrial, aqua(c, air); Eutrophica8on: Accumulated exceedence - a site dependent category based on quan(ty of a nutrient emi;ed, rela(ve to the background level ; in fresh water (P considered limi(ng factor), marine (N considered limi(ng factor), terrestrial (varies depending on the sensi(ve area involved); Human toxicity: expressing the es(mated increase in morbidity in the total human popula(on by the chemical(s) involved, separated into carcinogenic and non- carcinogenic effects ; Land Use: Soil Organic Ma;er (SOM) based on changes in SOM carbon, measured in (kg/ m 2 /a); Ozone layer deple8on: in the stratosphere over a 100- year (me Sum of ozone deple(ng chemicals, expressed in CFC- 11 equivalents Par8culate maeer: by quan(fying the impact of PM 2.5 and PM 10 in terms of premature death or disability; Photochemical ozone: quan(ty of VOCs and NO x, may be expressed in ethylene equivalents forma(on in the atmosphere leading to smog forma(on..

18 Human and Ecosystems health impacts Yang, Y., Life cycle freshwater ecotoxicity, human health cancer, and noncancer impacts of corn ethanol and gasoline in the U.S. Journal of Cleaner Produc(on, (0): p

19 To adapt to these kinds of changes, trees with a lower chilling requirement would have to be planted and reach produc(ve age Various trees and grape vines differ in their chilling requirements, with grapes requiring 90 hours, peaches 225, apples 400, and cherries more than 1,000 Produc(on to migrate to other areas

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