Federal Development Plan (FDP)

Transcription

1 Federal Development Plan (FDP) Future grid 2030 Users Group 07/06/2018

2 Agenda Methodology of the FDP Scenarios for the FDP Energy transition - context Transmission grid 380kV Transmission grid kV Next steps

3 Methodology of the FDP

4 Federal Development Plan What and why? 10 year time horizon, once every 4 years Covers 110 to 380 kv Estimation of future grid capacity needs= why adapting the grid? The corresponding investment program to meet the needs = Which grid adjustments? Approval by Federal Minister of Energy Consultation of CREG, Marine Minister, Regional Ministers of Energie & public Legally binding for Elia.

5 Federal Development Plan : Methodology (1/2) Define scenarios Perform studies Gather storylines Draft document What? Based on Prospective Study To link with TYNDP Elia s own assessment Market and grid studies Identify needs and solutions Assess projects Gather information about existing programs and new needs Build understandable storylines Text and layouting Executive summary and key messages File to Board of Directors External Stakeholders Federal Planning Bureau and DG Energy are consulted and informed + contact with informal stakeholders (public acceptance)

6 Federal Development Plan : Methodology (2/2) Perform SEA Consultation of Authorities Broad public consultation What? Methodology definition Perform SEA for each project Draw conclusions and key messages CREG and Ministries Federal committees (SEA, FRDO) Regions ( regional regulators) Public consultation All information is online External Stakeholders Federal Planning Bureau, DG Energy and SEA committee + informal sthlders (public acceptance) Open period for comments from any stakeholder 8 Update and finalize document Text and layouting Executive summary and Key messages File to Board of Directors Submission to Minister of Energy Federal Planning Bureau, DG Energy and SEA committee + informal sthlders (public acceptance)

7 Master Planning FDP FASE 1 Initiation FASE 2 Realisation Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Future Grid prep PA plan Define deliverables & project plan Drafting of FDP & internal review Opinion CREG & marine minister 14/10/2018 Local elections 6/2019 Federal elections 31/5/18 Submission of Draft FDP20-30 to CREG x p r e p Strategic Environmental Assessment public consult Evaluation by SEA committee Update Approval process 01/12/17 FOD Monitoring report 1/2/19 Submission of Final Draft Approved FDP20-30 By mid April 19 Approval required Before 16 Nov 19

8 FDP document structure PRE 1 CONTEXT 2 3 STORYLINES/ 4 SCENARIOS JUSTIFICATION EHV GRID 5 RGD GRID ANNEX Preamble Legal context Context Drivers Internal backbone Drivers Investment tables Executive summary Energy transition Time horizon & storylines Identif of needs: Market & Grid Interconnections Province 1 Technical summary Development axes Hypothesis Lagging to leading: future EHV grid Offshore wind Province N Methodology Trends SEW results Centralized energy storage Public Acceptance Impact RGD grid Long-term potential energy transition

9 Scenarios for the FDP

10 The Federal Development Plan (FDP) will be based on the 3 TYNDP storylines updated with the latest market information TYNDP scenarios With latest information from the market and advanced modelling TYNDP + scenarios Distributed Generation Decentral Sustainable Transition Base Case Best Estimate External scenario EUCO Global Climate Action Large Scale RES Legend Scenario available TYNDP and TYNDP+ Scenario available in TYNDP+ only TYNDP lays the foundation, FDP delivers complementary view to stakeholders Reference for market studies in TYNDP (CBA interconnection) Reference for market studies in FDP (CBA interconnection) These scenarios contain a large range of assumptions. Through market studies, they allow us to evaluate the robustness of network developments. 10

11 Energy transition - context

12 The energy transition is happening now and gaining momentum

13 Development of the grid is a pre-requisite for a successful energy transition Benefits of EU integration SUSTAINABILITY Combine domestic renewable energy sources (on & offshore) with imported renewable energy AFFORDABILITY Access to electricity at competitive prices (EU merit-order) + export possibilities for domestic power plants RELIABILITY Complement intermittent renewables with flexible thermal power plants and interconnections increase Security of Supply

14 Grid development takes time: start early (enough)! Stevin-project: 10 years BRABO-project: 13 years ALEGrO: 13 years Typical production unit: 4 years

15 North Sea From Lagging to Leading grid infrastructure development Grid follows nuclear development Grid follows EU & RES integration Grid enables Energy Transition Doel Brussel Tihange Coo MO G Stevi n Do el Brussel Tihange ALEGr O Coo Nuclear development European regulation & 2020 targets put focus on market & RES integration Maximal decarbonisation through RES on EU scale

16 FDP & TYNDP: The energy transition spurs grid capacity needs On a European scale, the most important conclusions from the TYNDP s Identification of System Needs (IoSN) report for the North Sea Region are: The TYNDP IoSN report (conducted on 2040 scenarios) uments/tyndp%20docum ents/tyndp2018/rgip_ns_ Full.pdf The current cross-border exchange capacity is insufficient to enable an economically optimal exchange of electricity from a European perspective. The flows resulting from the described production mix in the different scenarios become larger, more volatile and less predictable, partly as a result of the variable nature of renewable energy sources. Even without an additional increase in cross-border capacity, a strengthening of the internal networks will be necessary to accommodate these flows. Because of the meshed network and the central location within the North Sea area, the congestions are most pronounced in the Central Western Europe area. The fact that congestions are observed with a completely intact network (an N-condition network without planned or unscheduled unavailability) is a strong signal that investments in the network are required.

17 Transmission grid 380kV

18 The main drivers for the EHV grid development Competitivity, Sustainability and Security of Supply

19 The EHV-grid towards 2025: main projects already launched (FDP ) 1 Internal backbone grid HTLS Massenhove-Meerhout- Van Eyck HTLS Horta-Mercator 2 MOG: Offshore I up to 2,3 GW offshore wind 3 AC interco s With FR and NL: HTLS Avelin-Horta BRABO Zandvliet-Rilland (FR NB) Aubange-Moulaine (PST) HVDC-interconnectors ALEGrO Nemo Link 2 3 MOG Zeebrugge Zandvliet Doel 3 Damme Lillo Massenhoven Brugge Kruibeke 3 Zomergem Izegem Avelgem 1 Dilbeek Rilland 1 Maasbracht Maaseik Lint Meerhout Genk Vilvoorde Siersdorf Drogenbos Lixhe ALEGrO Courcelles Champion Huy Farciennes Trois-Ponts Achêne Standard 380 kv HVDC New 380 kv corridor New 220 kv corridor Reinforce existing corridors with HTLS New HVDC corridor Bascharage Bofferd. New substation Aubange Schifflange New PST(s) Oberzier

20 The pillars of Elia s future EHV-grid: 3 main drivers Reinforcing and extending the internal backbone Avoid bottlenecks due to more volatile power flows Integrate new domestic production To be ready for additional offshore energy sources Connect additional Belgian offshore wind production Connect additional offshore from North sea countries. Reinforcing and extending interconnection capacity Contribute to price convergence and integration of RES on EU-scale Create opportunities for domestic power plants in the EU market

21 The next wave of projects ( ) shaping the Belgian extra high voltage grid B C D Extending the offshore grid Harvest energy potential North Sea E 2 nd HVDC links to GB & DE Price convergence through RES integration on EU scale New corridor Stevin-Avelgem ( Kustlus ) A required extension towards the coast to create the opportunity to connect more offshore RES and interconnectors New corridor Avelgem-Center A missing link to enable increased west-east and north-south power flows and complete the meshed backbone to support further evolutions MOG Nautilus MOG II Stevin Avelgem Brussel ALEGrO DE-BE II Coo A Maximize potential of the existing grid via upgrades Stronger and more volatile power flows require a fundamental upgrade of the existing grid

22 The future grid 2030: main 380kV projects 1 2 HTLS backbone - upgrade Van Eyck-Gramme-Courcelles- Mercator phased approach Timing: New AC-corridor Avelgem Centre Timing: New AC-corridor Coast-Avelgem (Coast loop) Timing: Offshore II 2 GW offshore wind Timing: for approval for approval for approval cond approval 4 6B A 5 AC interco s With FR and NL Timing: New HVDCinterconnectors 6A BE-DE II 6B Nautilus (BE-GB II) Timing: at the earliest 2028 under study cond approval 5

23 Transmission grid kV

24 Transmission grid kV Main drivers: Evolutions in 380kV network Increase in local load evolution and/or increase in (RES) production Replacement needs to ensure reliability and security Technological and legal conformity Grid Development: Decoupling of kV grids Integration of central and decentral production units Upgrade 36-70kV grids to higher voltage levels Increase of short circuit power capabilities Reinforce transformation capacity due to local load evolution Investments for replacement needs In total 269 projects for kV 24

25 Transmission grid kV (non-exhaustive) 1 2 Integration of RES Noorderkempen, extension 150kV-grid Port of Ghent, new TFO 150/36kV Kluizendok, 2025 East loop phase II, Reinforcement of coupling with distribution grid Meerhout: new coupling point, 2020 Waterloo, new TFO 150/11kV, Decoupling of 150kV-grids 2nd TFO 380/150kV Rodenhuize, 2022 PST 150/150kV Koksijde-Slijkens, 2021 Gouy, split of substation, Replacement program 150kV-grid Antwerp, kV-grid Hainaut, kV-grid Brussels, Upgrade to higher voltage East loop (70 110kV) phase II, Westhoek (70 150kV), Brussels (36 150kV), South of Luxemburg (70 110kV), Liège (partially &220kV), Boot of Hainaut (70 150kV), In total 269 projects for kV

26 Next steps

27 Master Planning FDP FASE 1 Initiation FASE 2 Realisation Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Future Grid prep PA plan Define deliverables & project plan Drafting of FDP & internal review Opinion CREG & marine minister 14/10/2018 Local elections 6/2019 Federal elections 31/5/18 Submission of Draft FDP20-30 to CREG x p r e p Strategic Environmental Assessment public consult Evaluation by SEA committee Update Approval process 01/12/17 FOD Monitoring report 1/2/19 Submission of Final Draft Approved FDP20-30 By mid April 19 Approval required Before 16 Nov 19

28 Thank you for you attention!