Optimal Investment Paths for the Danish Energy System in the CEEH Modelling System

Transcription

1 Downloaded from orbit.dtu.dk on: Dec, 17 System in the CEEH Modelling System Karlsson, Kenneth Bernard; Balyk, Olexandr Published in: Collection of Extended Abstracts Publication date: 11 Link back to DTU Orbit Citation (APA): Karlsson, K. B., & Balyk, O. (11). System in the CEEH Modelling System. In Collection of Extended Abstracts (pp ). Centre for Energy, Environment and Health. (CEEH Scientific Report; No. 9). General rights Copyright and moral rights for the publications made accessible in the public portal are retained by the authors and/or other copyright owners and it is a condition of accessing publications that users recognise and abide by the legal requirements associated with these rights. Users may download and print one copy of any publication from the public portal for the purpose of private study or research. You may not further distribute the material or use it for any profit-making activity or commercial gain You may freely distribute the URL identifying the publication in the public portal If you believe that this document breaches copyright please contact us providing details, and we will remove access to the work immediately and investigate your claim.

2 Kenneth B. Karlsson and Olexandr Balyk DTU Climate Centre, Risø DTU International Conference on Energy, Environment and Health Optimisation i i of Future Energy Systems June 2 nd, 10 Copenhagen, Denmark

3 CEEH Modelling Framework 2 Risø DTU 02/06/10

4 Input to the CEEH Machine and output Economic development Demographics Global emission data Health H costs from energy conversion External health cost for each emission spices ( /kg) Meteorology Technology data Fuel costs Optimal investment patterns for the Scandinavian energy system with focus on Denmark External environmental costs Fuel use and emission from the energy system 3 Risø DTU 02/06/10

5 Use of CEEH results in IDA50 plan 4 Risø DTU 02/06/10

6 Use of CEEH results in IDA50 plan 5 Risø DTU 02/06/10

7 Scenarios at different levels Global Scenarios IPCC AR5 Emissions Air pollution models Regional Scenarios (Scandinavia) DG Tren EU- Commission Energy demand Emissions External costs Local Scenarios Denmark ADAM-EMMA Energy demand Electricity and Energy system model DH price 6 Risø DTU 02/06/10

8 Electricity & DH prices ADAM-EMMA Macro economic projections Energy services End-use energy Industry Service Households Electricity Heat demand Transport fuels Balmorel Transport 05=1 Economic growth in sectors Trade&Service Industry Private consumption Person transport Gods transport Efficiency improvements Omkostninger til elbesparelser i industrien øre/kwhe Akkumuleret besparelse PJ/år Heat saving costs, kr/kwh year Heat savings, GWh Air emissions : CO2, SO2, NOx,,p pm, CO 7 Risø DTU 02/06/10

9 Energy System Industrial process heat Society Energy Demand: Power, Heat, Transport Electrical appliances, buildings Included in Balmorel Supply: Power and District Heat Individual Boilers Transport technologies 8 Risø DTU 02/06/10

10 Example of results from Balmorel The impact of including health costs Comparing two scenarios with identical inputs except from the inclusion of heath costs Policy-free scenarios Base -scenario includes health costs and No-Health do not include health costs A full year in the simulation is currently represented by four weeks The results are preliminary and still needs further investigation and interpretation! 9 Risø DTU 02/06/10

11 Assumptions I: CO2 Price Development EUR/to on CO2 Price 10 Risø DTU 02/06/10

12 Assumptions II: Fuel Price Development EUR/G GJ Coal Natural Gas Oil Biomass 11 Risø DTU 02/06/10

13 Demand dinputs 05= Economicgrowth insectors Electricity and heat demand in Denmark, Norway, Sweden, Finland and Germany Include electricity savings in the input, but not heat savings. The transport fuel scenario is created exogenous Fuels for transport Trade&Service d& Industry Private consumption Person transport Gods transport Biogas Hydrogen /year PJ/ 150 Bio diesel Ethanol 100 Natural gas Electricity 50 Diesel 0 Gasoline 12 Risø DTU 02/06/10

14 Technology Competiveness: Electricity EUR/MW Wh % 4.0% 3.9% 8.3% 9.1% 79% 7.9% 32% 3.2% 3.2% 3.3% 2.9% 3.2% 2.9% 2.0% 1.9% 0 CO2 Cost HealthCost O&M Fixed Cost O&M Variable Cost Annuitised Investment Cost Fuel Cost 13 Risø DTU 02/06/10

15 Heat saving potential (Ref.: Erika Zvingilaite, Risø DTU) Heat Loss in Buildings 100% Heat saving costs, kr/kwh year % 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% % 10% Ventilation Hot water Windows Floor Roof Walls % Dwellling 07 Dwelling max Office 07 Office max Heat savings, GWh 14 Risø DTU 02/06/10

16 New power capacity in Denmark until 50 COAL Natural Gas WIND 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 MW CC NG CC2 CC NG CC3 ST CO CC1 ST CO CC2 CCS ST CO CC3 CCS WI offshore CC3 WI onshore CC1 WI onshore CC2 WI onshore CC3 WI offshore CC2 ST CO CC2 CC NG CC2 CC NG CC3 ST CO CC1 ST CO CC2 CCS ST CO CC3 CCS WI offshore CC3 WI onshore CC1 WI onshore CC2 WI onshore CC3 WI offshore CC2 ST CO CC2 DENMARK DENMARK BASE nohealth 15 Risø DTU 02/06/10

17 Power capacity in Denmark 60,000 50,000 W/year M 40,000 30,000,000 10,000 Endo WIND Endo NAT_GAS Endo COAL Exogenous BASE nohe ealth BASE nohe ealth BASE nohe ealth BASE nohe ealth BASE nohe ealth BASE nohe ealth BASE nohe ealth BASE nohe ealth BASE nohe ealth Risø DTU 02/06/10

18 Electricity production in Denmark TWh/ /year BASE nohealth BASE nohealth BASE nohealth BASE nohealth DENMARK DENMARK DENMARK DENMARK COAL FUELOIL MUNI_WASTE NAT_GAS STRAW WIND 17 Risø DTU 02/06/10

19 Total fuel consumption in the power sector in Denmark PJ/year Wind 400 Straw Natural gas 300 Waste Fuel oil 0 Coal 100 BASE nohealth BASE nohealth BASE nohealth BASE nohealth DENMARK DENMARK DENMARK DENMARK Risø DTU 02/06/10

20 Emissions CO2 emissions NOx Emissions BASE nohealth BASE nohealth BASE nohealth Megatons CO O2/year BASE nohealth BASE nohealth BASE nohealth Risø DTU 02/06/10

21 Health costs of Nox emissions Mio. /year BASE nohealth DENMARK FINLAND NORWAY SWEDEN Risø DTU 02/06/10

22 3E+10 Implemented Heat Savings 6E+10 Heat Saving Potential 25E 2.5E+10 2E+10 5E+10 kw Wh 1.5E E+10 No-Health WINDOW WALL ROOF 4E+10 5E E E+10 Implemented Heat Savings DENMARK kwh 3E+10 WINDOW WALL ROOF 2E+10 2E+10 FLOOR kwh 1.5E+10 1E+10 Base WINDOW WALL ROOF 1E+10 5E DENMARK DENMARK 21 Risø DTU 02/06/10

23 Returning revised emissions to the air emission model Emissions Emissions DEHM 22 Risø DTU 02/06/10

24 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION AND AN INTERESTING CONFERENCE! Kenneth B. Karlsson: Olexandr Balyk: DTU Climate Centre: 23 Risø DTU 02/06/10

25 Four RCP IPPC Scenarios Name Radiative Forcing Concentration Pathways Shape RCP W/m 2 (in 2100) <= ~1370 CO 2 -eq Rising RCP6.0 ~6.0W/m 2 (stabilization after 2100) ~850 CO 2 -eq Stabilization without overshoot RCP4.5 ~4.5W/m 2 (stabilization after 2100) ~650 CO 2 -eq Stabilization without overshoot RCP3-PD < 3W/m 2 (peak and decline) 2.6W/m 2 < ~490 CO 2 -eq Peak & decline 24 Risø DTU 02/06/10 24