Transition till in the EU countries - The INFORSE Visions

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1 A just and democratic transition to renewable energy Transition till in the EU countries - The INFORSE Visions Gunnar Boye Olesen, International Network for Sustainable Energy (INFORSE-Europe) Seminar, Barcelona, 13. September 2010

2 - European network of 75 NGOs working for renewable energy and energy efficiency Active on EU policies, sustainable energy, visions/ scenarios, sustainable energy education, etc Work on global climate and energy issues with INFORSE members in other continents, e.g. climate negotiations Supported by EU DG Environment, members and others

3 The INFORSE Vision Phase out fossil fuel and nuclear power Provide everybody with basic energy needs, also the 1 billion that lack basic clean energy for cooking and light today

4 INFORSE Sustainable Energy Visions Global Vision Vision for EU-27 Bulgaria Denmark Hungary Latvia Lithuania Romania Slovakia UK Zero Carbon Britain Belarus Russia Ukraine

5 We need to limit global climate change to 2'C (or better 1.5'C) Only than can we avoid catastrophes for nature and humanity In spite of recent press there has been very broad scientific consensus on this for several years It is expressed in the IPCC 4th Assessment report (2007) and stronger emphasized in later studies

6 A quick look at climate science: Climate Sensitivity: How much will global temperature increase with a doubling of atmospheric greenhouse gases?

7 The risk of exceed 2'C global warming depending on CO 2 emissions (The Climate Budget)

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10 EU's Challenges in a Global Development Rights Framework

11 The Global Vision Enough Renewables for 9 billion people if we use it efficiently Prof. Bent Sørensen, 100% Renewable Energy Scenario, Low Energy Consumption Scen. 1999

12 Energy Services per capita 9000 Industrialisedcountries Developingcountries Transport El.+mechanical Medium+high t. Lowtemp

13 Primary Energy (TWh/y) Industrialised countries Developing countries Nuclear Fossil Biomass Hydro Solar Wind

14 EU-27 Sustainable Energy Vision - Above 95% reduction by 2050 (98%), - Fast application of known solutions to 2020 and Sustainability issues addressed (biomass, biofuels) - No net import or export over longer periods

15 Energy Service Developments

16 EU-27 Sustainable Energy Vision Demand side: Modest increase in energy services (sufficiency/sust.) Less road transport in EU-15 (sufficiency, environm.) Large increase in energy efficiency, factor 4 in enduse sectors when possible until 2050 Transition to electric and hydrogen transport, ~95%

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18 Energy Efficiency Increases Ecodesign, EU will drive efficiency of many products until 2020, and with updates until 2030 and beyond Factor 4 for personal cars, industry, until % for space heating, until % for railways, 60% for road freight until 2050

19 How the energy efficiency looks like

20 EU-27 Sustainable Energy Vision Supply side: Efficient energy supply with combined heat and power(chp), smarter and more efficient grids Rapid development of renewable energy Phase out of nuclear until 2025 (end of lifetime), no CCS

21 Renewable Energy Supply - EU27 Renewable Energy Supply, EU Solar PV Solar heat PJ Windpower Energy Forest Biogas Bio-fuel, liquid Biomass Geothermal Hydro

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23 Electricity Electricity Divided in Supply, EU Nuclear Fossils Import Solar PV PJ Wind Biomass 0 Hydro

24 Primary Energy Total Primary Energy Supply, EU Nuclear PJ (thousands) Natural gas Oil products Coal & waste 25% Biomass Other RE

25 EU CO2 emissions from energy - mill. tons INFORSE Vision EU15 EU

26 Will the EU Biomass Use be Sustainable? EU-27 Biomass potential/use 2050 (PJ) Solid energy crops Biofuels/crops Bioga s Straw Old timber/waste Industrial wood re sidues Wood/biomass WhitePaper'10* INFORSE INFORSE-DK** EEA2020* FoE/SEI-m itiga tion'50 EREC2050 * EU-15 figures up-scaled with 20% to EU-27 ** DK figures up-scaled with population ratio to EU-27

27 Why no nuclear? Not a safe energy source, lifetime extension increases safety problems Waste problems not solved (not even in Sweden) Expensive, new nuclear more costlier than alternatives Inflexible 120 Power prices, new plants, present fuel prices, Latvia /MWh Bio-CHP-large Windpower Coal CHP-large Wood-CHP-medium Wood-CHP-small Gas CC-CHP-large Coal-large, el-only Biogas Gas CHP Straw-CHP-small Nuclear Carbon price Fuel costs O&M Investment

28 Vision for Denmark (OVE) 2030 Strong growth in windpower, sust. biomass Reduce specific building consumption 39% to '30 Reduce specific electricity use, industry 42% to '30 Flexible energy: district heating, heat pumps, electric cars and hydrogen Sustainable transport system, 80% more efficient No new international power lines

29 Danish Primary Energy Demand 900 Danish Primary Energy Supply 800 PJ Coal & Waste Oil Natural Gas Ambient via heat pumps Wind, Solar, Waves Biomass

30 District Heating = 70% of Heat 140 District Heat Supply, Denmark (PJ) Heat pumps Solar heating Geotermi Bio-CHP Bio-heat Waste Gas-CHP Gas-heat Coal+oil-CHP Coal+oil-heat

31 DK CO 2 emissions from energy In total 2 t/capita per year in average = sustainable level

32 DK System in balance in 2030 Hourly balances made with Energy Plan programme 1% unused windpower Existing import/ export lines RES12 = Wind RE34 = wave+pv CHP incl. geothermal

33 Costs Costs calculated based on Danish national price forecasts, standard and high fossil fuel prices, Price for entire Danish energy supply system in 2030 Billion DKK/year Costs in 2030, DK Energy Vision and basis, 3% interest Vision Basis Basis,highfossilprices Efficiency Investments & interest External el.trade Investment&int erests O&M Fuel Costs in 2030, DK Energy Vision and basis, 6% interest Billion DKK/year Vision Basis Basis,hig h-fossilprices Efficiency Investments & interest External el.trade Investment&in terests O&M Fuel

34 In Conclusion Europe can move to 100% renewables, with energy efficiency and reduced/no growth in energy services In Denmark a fast transition can pay. We need to change! What about Catalunya?

35 Thank you See

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