Climate Change Research at JRC

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1 Climate Change Research at JRC Serving society Stimulating innovation Supporting legislation Frank Dentener and Frank Raes

2 Climate Change: - global and regional temperature changes and extremes - precipitation - droughts, floods, glaciers, sea-ice - impacts natural resources, and ecosystem services - human health - economy: damages and cost of adaptation 29 May

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5 Regional Climate Change Index

6 EU climate policies Europe 2020 Strategy for a resource-efficient Europe COM(2011) 21 low carbon society Early action on adaptation to climate change to minimize threats to ecosystems and human health, support economic development and help adjust our infrastructures to cope with unavoidable climate change (implemented by DG CLIMA, ENV, ECHO, REGIO,..) Agenda for Change COM(2011) 637 Development is not sustainable if it... increases the vulnerability to natural disasters. It should contribute to improve the resilience of developing countries to the consequences of climate change. (implemented by DG CLIMA, DEVCO, ECHO,...) 29 May

7 Climate Change Work at JRC earth observation climate droughts modelling floods, landslides, sea level rise heat waves, forest fires

8 Climate Modelling standing on the shoulders of giants: making climate model output fit for policy aplications Difference in present precipitation between models (11 models in the CORDEX project) and observations (Global Precipitation Climatology Project, version 11) Input to IPCC 5AR JRC coordinates EU participants Nikulin, G et al, 2011:, J. Climate 8

9 Climate Modelling making climate model output fit for policy aplications N. Europe S. Europe Present and projected precipitation trend ( ) 13 models in ENSEMBLES project. Not very useful in policy applications N. Europe S. Europe Bias corrected projections. Useful for impact modelling (floods, droughts, e.g. in PESETA-II study) A. Dosio, et al. 2011; 2012, J Geophysical Res 9

10 European Flood Awareness System EFAS from inception to operationalization Beginning: Elbe and Danube floods in 2002: lack of coherent flood information and coordination for trans-national floods. Overview stations with potential problems in the next 10 days COM(2002) 481 proposal European Solidarity Fund, EFAS Development at JRC: Since 2007 experimental daily flood forecasts to >30 MS. Since 2010 daily to the ECHO/Monitoring Information Centre Operational 7/365 service since 2012 with funding of DG ENTR (GMES) DG ECHO- MIC/ERC. Operational service is provided by Member State consortia (ECMWF, SE, NL, SK,ES) Prediction of river discharge at a give station JRC continues R&D and expands the system to global scale, e.g. in support to international aid and crisis management (UNISDR, ECHO, national authorities) 29 May

11 Climate Change Impacts: floods Relative change in 100-year flood magnitude between the control period ( ) based on an ensemble of LISFLOOD simulations driven by 12 climate models forced by the IPCC A1B scenario. Red: decrease in flood magnitude Blue: more severe floods An increase in flooding is projected in several major European rivers, even in Southern Europe, In North-eastern Europe the hazard of extreme snowmelt floods is projected to decrease. Rojas R., et al. 2011, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Feyen L., et al., 2012, Climatic Change 29 May

12 European Drought Observatory Combined Drought Indicator, May European Forest Fire Information System

13 European Drought Observatory EDO Beginning: European heat wave 2003, 2006 COM(2007) 4014 on Water Scarcity and Droughts: establishment of EDO Development at JRC: - Combined Drought Indicator for agricultural drought - mapping and outreach (web based, Drought News ) Users: - regional and national water managers - industrial organisations (energy, agriculture,...), media Precipitation Shortage Soil Moisture deficit Reduced Vegetation Production WATCH WARNING ALERT Time 13

14 Combined Drought Indicator Evolution Spring April April April May May May June June June July July July 2011

15 COM/2009/0147 Adapting to Climate Change: 1 st Priority developing the knowledge base > Clearing House Mechanism JRC provides 81 of the 120 maps of climate change information in real time to CLIMATE-ADAPT covering floods, droughts, agriculture, forests & forest fires, soils & climate. 29 May

16 Ciscar et al., PNAS, 2011 Climate Change Impacts: wellfare loss&gain the JRC PESETA-II studies Rojas R., et al. 2011, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Feyen L., et al., 2012, Climatic Change 29 May

17 Collaborations the EU and Global scientific community (e.g. through DG R&I) the European Institute of Innovation and Technology (EIT) - Knowledge and Innovation Community - Climate Change (KIC) the Distaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation policy communities - Member State Networks - Commission (CLIMA, ECHO, DEVCO, REGIO, ENV, ENTR) - United Nations - UNFramework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) - UNConvention on Combatting Desertification (UNCCD) - WMO / Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) - WMO / World Climate Research Programme (WRCP) - Programme on Vulnerability Impacts and Adaptation (PROVIA) Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 29 May

18 FAPAR the Carbon-cycle: Earth Observation Long term global trends of Photosynthetic Activity of the biosphere from space: understanding ecosystem health 2011 Gobron, 2012, Terrestrial vegetation dynamics during 2011 in State of the Climate in 2011, BAMS. 18

19 Managing Climate Risks: the challenge Mitigation is main action in EU goal: 2 degrees target, low carbon society However, requires overhaul of production and consumption globally fact: CO 2 emissions, we are on or way to a +3 C world. Adaptation becomes more important also for EU adapting to 2 C, to 4 C, to 6 C, limits to adaptation! Fight for 2 C world prepare for +3 C world climate action = mitigation + adaptation Plan B: Geo-engineering Solar Radiation Management, Carbon Dioxide Removal Need for an informed public debate 29 May

20 OUTLOOK Development and assesment of smart 2 C scenarios: - Greenhouse gases and short lived climate forcers (air pollutants) - sustainability and energy security R&D on Natural Disaster Awareness systems - expansion to developping countries Development of Near-and Long-Term Climate Change Scenario s - model and data driven impact studies - better information in developping countries Multi Climate Risk Assessments for policy support - CLIMA, ECHO, REGIO, DEVCO, ENV, ENTR, UN Conventions - Disaster Risk Reduction, Climate Change Adaptation - risk for people, ecosystems and infrastructure - risk for development, growth, well-being Contribute to Climate Risk Management - Climate Services (GMES, Climate Adapt, WMO...) - Policy scenarios and case studies Anticipation of climate change impacts on water, carbon,.. cycles - Earth System approach;natural resources; climate management 20

21 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION 29 May