Solar CSP Developers Friends or Foes

Transcription

1 Renewable Power Generation Advisory ID# RPG Solar CSP Developers Friends or Foes CSP Today 2008 San Francisco, California 29 January 2008 Reese Tisdale Senior Analyst

2 Overview Agenda Overview Market Drivers Current Market Status Competitive Strategies Outlook Page 2

3 Market Drivers Factors Driving Renewable Energy Investments Profitability Feed-in tariffs and tax credits providing modest to strong returns on investments Compliance Carbon constraints (Kyoto Protocol, RGGI, etc.) Renewable Energy Standards (ROCs) Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) Energy Security Political will to reduce price volatility Green image Customer acquisition and retention; shareholders Build-up unique competencies Building renewables-focused business units with international scope Page 3

4 Market Drivers Factors Driving Renewable Energy Investments $12 $10 U.S. Natural Gas Wellhead Price Dollars per Thousand Cubic Feet Second Launch $8 Period of Dormancy Nevada Solar One $6 Initial Build-out PS10 $4 Energy Crisis SEGS V SEGS IV SEGS VII SEGS II SEGS IX Saguaro $2 SEGS I SEGS III SEGS VIII SEGS VI $ Page 4

5 Current Market Status Renewable Power Generation Top 20 Renewable Players Analysis MW 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Iberdrola FPL Source: Utilities, Developers, Emerging Energy Research SHP ENEL Acciona EDF Babcock Brown Scottish Power Endesa EDP E.ON Suez Chevron Mid American DONG RWE CFE Vattenfall Wheelabrator Calpine Solar CSP WTE Co-firing Landfill gas Biogas Biomass Geothermal Wind Eurus 12 of the top 20 companies are European-based European companies are now investing in US assets Utilities and IPPS are looking beyond wind to bolster portfolios European utilities and IPPs are taking leadership roles in the renewables sector and increasing role in solar CSP Page 5

6 Current Market Status Concentrating Solar Power Today Abengoa Solar MW Ownership, as of YE2006 Solar Millennium MW Ownership, as of YE2007 MW Additions, 2007 Sunray Energy MW Additions, 2008 (est.) Sunray Energy ACS Cobra Acciona Solar Iberdrola Acciona Solar FPL Energy Abengoa Solar Fortress Investment Group FPL Energy Fortress Investment Group Net MW Ownership Net MW Ownership Solar CSP Industry will add 170 MW in 2008, all in Europe. No installations are expected in the US until at least 2010 Page 6

7 Current Market Status Concentrating Solar Power by Technology Current Installed CSP Technology Announced CSP Facilities by Technology Central Receiver 11 MW Parabolic Trough 420 MW 100% 90% 80% Solar Chimney Total: 431 MW 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% Parabolic Trough Linear Fresnel ISCC Dish Engine Central Receiver 0% TBD Abengoa s 11 MW central receiver system is the first large scale commercial facility to come online in 17 years Acciona s 64 MW Nevada Solar One plant is the first parabolic trough plant to come online since 1991 No current facilities have additional storage capabilities Solar Millennium has announced 1,000 MW of parabolic trough planned for Inner Mongolia by ,000 MW of Fresnel is planned by Solar Power Group for North Africa with the Libyan Center for Solar Research Page 7

8 Competitive Strategies Solar CSP Developer Positioning Technology Promoters Independent technology providers Leveraging specialized technology capabilities Utilities & IPPs Renewable ownership leaders Adding CSP projects to wind portfolios Renewable Project Developers Opportunistic players playing off promoters and Utility/IPPs Locking up optimal sites for investment Page 8

9 Competitive Strategies Geographic Strategies Abengoa Solar Ausra, Inc. BrightSource Energy SkyFuel Solel Solar Systems Stirling Energy Systems Acciona Solar Power FPL Energy Bethel Energy Inland Energy Abengoa Solar Ausra, Inc. Novatec Biosol Sener Solar Millennium Solar Power Group Solel (Pasch y CIA S.A.) Ausra, Inc Abengoa Solar (Abener) Acciona Solar EDP, Neo Energía Enel SpA Endesa Iberdrola SAMCA Enel SpA Solar Millennium Epuron (Conergy) EECH Ener-T Global Grupo Enhol Albiasa Solar Solel Solar Systems Iberdrola ADFEC Solar Millennium Technology Promoter Utility / IPP Owner Pure Play Developer ESKOM Ausra, Inc Page 9

10 Competitive Strategies Solar CSP Value Chain Technology Integrator Project Development EPC Operation Project Ownership Technology Promoters ACS Cobra, Sener MAN Ferrostaal Sacyr Vallehermoso URS Corporation GE Finance, EDP, Solar Millennium, ACS Solel IPPs & Utilities Page 10

11 Competitive Strategies Technology Promoter Differentiation Solar Millennium Local Global Solel Solar Power Group SES Ausra Split evenly between parabolic trough players and linear Fresnel players applying global development strategy beyond one country Focused on one country and one technology during demonstration stage before launching globally Ener-T Global BrightSource Energy Novatec Biosol Sener Abengoa Solar Abengoa stands alone in technology diversification with experience in parabolic trough, central receiver, and dish engine experience. Geographically focused on Spain, North Africa, and the US Technology Diversification Page 11

12 Competitive Strategies Wind Developers Enter CSP Sector 600 Solar CSP Installed (MW) Solar CSP Planned (MW) Wind Capacity (MW) 5,711 4, , , , Iberdrola FPL Energy Acciona EDP Endesa Enel Page 12

13 Outlook Conclusions Fossil fuel volatility and climate change issues will bolster renewable market over coming decade, fostering solar CSP buildout The Spanish will be slow and steady over the next decade; US market growth will take place closer to 2015 Parabolic trough technology will continue dominant role until emerging technologies prove viable. Thermal storage will prove critical over long term. The industry will begin to consolidate over the next five years with leading IPPs and utilities acquiring assets Page 13

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