GLOBAL STATUS OF CCS: 2015

Transcription

1 GLOBAL STATUS OF CCS: 2015 Perspectives from EMEA Andrew Purvis, General Manager, Europe Middle East and Africa Cover image: Overlooking the Quest Capture facility located at Shell - Scotford, near Fort Saskatchewan, Alberta. Image provided by Shell.

2 The Global CCS Institute Our Vision for CCS: CCS is an integral part of a low-carbon future OUR MISSION To accelerate the development, demonstration and deployment of CCS globally. We are an international membership organisation. Offices in Washington DC, Brussels, Beijing and Tokyo. Headquarters in Melbourne. Our diverse international membership consists of: o o governments, Reserves to production ratio: ~75 years global corporations, o small companies, 1 Fact-based, influential advice and advocacy 2 Authoritative knowledge sharing o o research bodies, and non-government organisations. Specialist expertise covers the CCS/CCUS chain.

3 Fossil fuel demand growing and reserves robust Fossil fuel proved reserves: 6 trillion barrels of oil equivalent Reserves to production ratio: ~75 years Source: IEA World Energy Outlook, 2014 (New policies scenario) Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014

4 Gt CO 2 emissions IEA long-term energy scenarios Current policies scenario [~6DS] New policies scenario 20 Reserves to production ratio: ~75 years 450 scenario [~2DS] 10 A substantial transformation in energy systems is required to achieve 2 C Source: IEA World Energy Outlook (2014).

5 Mitigation costs more than double in scenarios with limited availability of CCS Percentage increase in total discounted mitigation costs ( ) relative to default technology assumptions median estimate 2100 concentrations (ppm CO 2 eq) no CCS nuclear phase out limited solar/wind limited bioenergy % 7% 6% 64% 4 / 11 8 / 11 8 / 11 8 / 11 Symbol legend fraction of models successful in producing scenarios (numbers indicate number of successful models) All models successful Between 80 and 100% of models successful Between 50 and 80% of models successful Less than 50% of models successful Source: IPCC Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers, November 2014.

6 CCS as the basis for BECCS BECCS offers additional mitigation potential, but also an option to delay some of the drastic mitigation action that would need to happen to reach lower GHG-concentration goals by the second half of the century. IPCC WG3 AR5, Chapter 6 (page 486) The longer the delay in climate change action, the greater the need for net negative emissions technologies like BECCS. Sources: IPCC WG3 Fifth Assessment Report and Betting on negative emissions, Fuss et al (2014).

7 CCS is critical in a portfolio of low-carbon technologies CCS contributes 13% of cumulative reductions required through 2050 in a 2DS world compared to business as usual ~ 95 Gt CO 2 Non- OECD ~95 Power OECD Gt CO 2 Industry Source: IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives (2015).

8 Number of projects Much to look forward to over the next 18 months Projects to enter operation - currently under construction Projects in the Operate stage

9 Actual and expected operation dates for projects in operation, construction and advanced planning Sinopec Shengli Peterhead Power Generation Boundary Dam Petra Nova Sargas Texas TCEP Don Valley White Rose Coal-to-liquids Kemper ROAD Chemical production Iron and steel production Illinois Industrial Yanchang Sinopec Qilu HECA** Synthetic natural gas Fertiliser production Oil refining Natural gas processing Enid Fertilizer Great Plains Shute Creek Century Plant Coffeyville Lost Cabin Lula Uthmaniyah Abu Dhabi Petro China Jilin ACTL Agrium ACTL Sturgeon Spectra*** EOR Dedicated Geological Hydrogen production Val Verde Sleipner Snøhvit Quest Gorgon*** In Salah* Air Products Operating = 1Mtpa of CO 2 (areas of circle are proportional to capacity) * Injection currently suspended *** Institute estimate ** Storage options under evaluation

10 A global portfolio of operating CCS projects is emerging Source: Global Status of CCS: 2015, Global CCS Institute (2015)

11 Large-scale projects expected to become operational by 2017 Source: Global Status of CCS: 2015, Global CCS Institute (2015)

12 EMEA in six months? Construction Operating

13 Regional analysis Europe CCS ambition at start of the decade has not been realised, but there is significant cause for optimism In 6 months three projects could be in construction in the EU CCS projects in the UK are progressing and policy makers are developing mechanisms to support CCS in the power and industrial sectors. The UK Teesside Collective Project can be a key demonstrator of industrial CCS in Europe. The Dutch ROAD project is critical for CCS in mainland Europe. European projects in planning are important contributors to a global portfolio, and all plan to use offshore geological storage.

14 Regional analysis Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) GCC countries are at an early stage of CCS/CCUS deployment. Saudi Arabia is home to the region s first operational large-scale CCS project The UAE hosts the world s first CCS/CCUS project in the iron and steel sector. The focus of CCS/CCUS activity in the region is two-fold: o validate large-scale projects under local conditions o support for R&D activities Confidence from these programs is a key driver for longer-term deployment.

15 A significant task within one generation Global Status of CCS: ,000 Mtpa of CO 2 captured by CCS by 2040 (IEA 450 Scenario)** 45 large-scale CCS projects - combined capture capacity of 80 Mtpa*: 22 projects in operation or construction (40 Mtpa) 11 projects in advanced planning, five nearing FID (15 Mtpa) 12 projects in earlier stages of planning (25 Mtpa) 40 Mtpa Non-OECD OECD *Mtpa = million tonnes per annum **Source: IEA, Energy Technology Perspectives (2015).

16 Global CCS status a recap to guide future action CCS is indispensable in a least-cost approach to global decarbonisation Opportunities for cost reductions are being identified The task is enormous the urgency of CCS deployment is only increasing Deployment is not a technology challenge Supporting CCS in industrial applications and non-oecd countries is very important Policies that spur investment are the missing pieces in the jigsaw

17 A plan of action for CCS completing the jigsaw Industry and government must move at least five advanced projects across the finish line in 2016 Policy parity must be provided This includes: Providing predictable and enduring policy arrangements Implementing effective and cost-efficient CCS law and regulation Incentivising early storage site identification and characterisation Re-doubling R&D efforts to reduce costs and increase efficiency Encourage efficient development of hub and cluster arrangements

18 Call to action 1. We cannot hope to tackle the scale of the climate challenge without CCS 2. It is time to implement effective policies which focus on this outcome 3. Strong leadership is needed by decision-makers in government and industry, to gain full benefits of CCS

19 The Global Status of CCS: 2015 The Institute s key publication Summary Report, Key Findings and other advocacy materials can be found at: Full report is available online at the Institute s Members Portal.

20