The development of an Integrated Forecasting and River Modelling (iffrm) system for the Muar River watershed in Malaysia

Transcription

1 The development of an Integrated Forecasting and River Modelling (iffrm) system for the Muar River watershed in Malaysia Mohammed Fawwaz Fauzi, Andrew Brown, Emma Brown & David Powers 2015 AWRA National Conference Denver, Colorado

2 Outline 1. Background 2. The Project Team 3. Technical Approach 4. Future Prospects 5. Reflections

3 Malaysia

4 The Muar River

5 Background Understanding the Flooding Issues in Malaysia Strong economy has led to increases in development (particularly in and and along floodplain areas) Deforestation Rubber plantations and more recently palm oil plantations Urbanisation and increasing population in historically rural areas Structures in floodplain changing the hydraulic characteristics Bridges Levees Climate change Increases in rainfall depth and intensity Sea level rise Watershed Topography Tropical hydrology 2.5 m (8.2 ) annual rainfall

6 Track Record in Flood Warning Systems Munster Demer Salado Creek Solva Dijle Shanghai Tokyo San Antonio Pordenone Banas & Luni Klang Muar Chao Phraya Bang Pakong Selangor Citanduy

7 Project Team Jabatan Pengairan dan Saliran Malaysia Pinnacle Engineering Consultants HDL Solutions HR Wallingford Dr Lau

8 Project Team Jabatan Pengairan dan Saliran Malaysia Pinnacle Engineering Consultants Website and telemetry Development of FFS Radar data

9 Technical Approach Part A: Integrated Flood Forecasting and River Monitoring (iffrm) System with Warning System Components Part B: RADAR Nowcasting with NWP Integration and Decision Making Support System (DMSS) Part C: Maintenance of the system

10 Flood Forecasting and River Monitoring Hindcast Forecast iffrm WARNING

11 Technical Approach 1. Gathering of data and models and site visits 2. Checking of availability and quality of models and data 3. Method development/adjustment 4. Adapt existing hydraulic model for usability in iffrm system Remove all time dependent data and replace with hydrological models Recalibration of new version of model Validation of new version of model 5. Setup of iffrm Setup of FloodWorks (linking models and data, setup of displays) Link to live telemetry data Link to live forecast data 6. Test and demo iffrm 7. Reporting

12 Data

13 Bridge at Pekan Rompin Heavily vegetated channels upstream need high roughness values Bridge at Buloh Kasap Modification of RPL values to represent sinuosity New bridge, Sg Pagoh

14 Flood history Flood Events January 1995 December 1995 December 2006 January 2007 December 2008 November 2010 January 2011

15 Technical Approach 1. Gathering of data and models and site visits 2. Checking of availability and quality of models and data 3. Method development/adjustment 4. Adapt existing hydraulic model for usability in iffrm system Remove all time dependent data and replace with hydrological models Recalibration of new version of model Validation of new version of model 5. Setup of iffrm Setup of FloodWorks (linking models and data, setup of displays) Link to live telemetry data Link to live forecast data 6. Test and demo iffrm 7. Reporting

16 Data quality 2006

17 Data quality 2006

18 1. Gathering of data and models and site visits 2. Checking of availability and quality of models and data 3. Method development/adjustment 4. Adapt existing hydraulic model for usability in iffrm system Remove all time dependent data and replace with hydrological models Recalibration of new version of model Validation of new version of model 5. Setup of iffrm Setup of FloodWorks (linking models and data, setup of displays) Link to live telemetry data Link to live forecast data 6. Test and demo iffrm 7. Reporting Tasks

19 Extended cross section method

20 Results Flood map just upstream of the Muar confluence with Sg Segamat, with LiDAR data shown in shades of brown.

21 Technical Approach 1. Gathering of data and models and site visits 2. Checking of availability and quality of models and data 3. Method development/adjustment 4. Adapt existing hydraulic model for usability in iffrm system Remove all time dependent data and replace with hydrological models Recalibration of new version of model Validation of new version of model 5. Setup of iffrm Setup of FloodWorks (linking models and data, setup of displays) Link to live telemetry data Link to live forecast data 6. Test and demo iffrm 7. Reporting

22 iffrm - Ouputs

23

24 Future Prospects Langkawi Kedah Kelantan Penang Terengganu Kemaman Selangor Klang Pahang Linggi Muar

25 Reflections Historically, FRA in the Muar River Basin was viewed based on historical flooding. The development of iffrm is highlighting the need for additional gauge data to better understand local flood risk as the past no longer serves as an indicator of the future. Data availability and integrity in Malaysia can be unreliable and exist in inconsistent formats, requiring ad hoc solutions in order to make the best use of what is available. Limitations in resources may lead to less than ideal scope (e.g. nowcasting), as well as limitations in operational capabilities. This may necessitate simplifying assumptions. Communications between the various stakeholders needs to be prioritised in order to make the best use of available resources.

26 Thank You! 2015 AWRA National Conference Denver, Colorado