ODYSSEE-MURE, a decision support tool for energy efficiency policy evaluation. Recent energy efficiency trends in the EU

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "ODYSSEE-MURE, a decision support tool for energy efficiency policy evaluation. Recent energy efficiency trends in the EU"

Transcription

1 ODYSSEE-MURE, a decision support tool for energy efficiency policy evaluation Recent energy efficiency trends in the EU Didier Bosseboeuf, ADEME, project coordinator Bruno Lapillonne, Karine Pollier; Enerdata Danish workshop, May 28th 2018

2 Outline Energy consumption trends Energy efficiency trends Drivers of consumption variation Energy intensity and structural changes 2

3 Energy consumption trends

4 2000=100 %/year Slight progression of the primary consumption since 2014, 4 times slower than GDP, after a decrease of ~1%/yr between 2007 and Regular and rapid decrease of the primary energy intensity since 2000 (~1.7%/year) In 2016, EU primary energy consumption EU was closed to the 2020 efficiency target (4% higher). Primary energy consumption and intensity vs GDP (EU 28) GDP Primary consumption Intensity 2,5% 2,0% 1,5% 1,0% 0,5% 0,0% -0,5% -1,0% -1,5% -2,0% 2000/ GDP Primary consumption Intensity Consumption and intensity at normal climate, Source: Eurostat

5 Lithuania Greece Italy Ireland Spain Romania Portugal Croatia Cyprus Denmark UK Bulgaria Malta EU Netherlands Slovakia Hungary Finland Czech Rep. Luxembourg Latvia Germany Slovenia France Belgium Poland Austria Norway Sweden Estonia %/year Decreasing trend of the primary consumption in all countries in the period of slow economic growth or recession* Strong reduction, between -2 and -4%/yr in 11 countries; Between -1 and -2%/yr in 12 countries Variation of primary energy consumption* and GDP over % 3% 2% 1% 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% primary GDP * Normal climate *except in Poland, Sweden, Malta and Slovakia

6 Malta Latvia Luxembourg Czech Rep. UK France Finland Estonia Denmark Croatia Slovenia Greece Germany Slovakia Netherlands Italy EU Austria Bulgaria Romania Portugal Lithuania Hungary Spain Poland Cyprus Sweden Belgium Ireland Norway %/year Since 2014, with the economic recovery, increasing primary consumption in 18 countries as for the EU (that stood at 0.6%/year). For the other countries, decreasing consumption despite sustained economic GDP growth (except in France and Finland) Variation of primary energy consumption* and GDP over % 3% 1% -1% -3% -5% primary GDP * Normal climate

7 %/year %/year Decrease of the final consumption (total and electricity) from 2007 to 2014 in all sectors except services (-1.3%/yr for total, -0.6%/yr for electricity). Reverse trend since 2014: +1.4%/year for total but lower progression for electricity (0.8%/yr). 3% Total 3% Electricity 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% 0% -1% -1% -2% -2% -3% -3% Households and services at normal climate (services include non-specified)

8 Energy efficiency trends

9 Energy efficiency of final consumers improved by 1.3%/year between 2000 and 2016 (1.4%/yr before 2007 and between ). Slight slow down between (0.5%/year). Larger gains for households (2%/yr since 2000) with a slow down since 2012 (0.9 %/yr against 2.4%/yr over the previous period). Rate of improvement almost divided by 2 in industry, since 2007 (-1%/compared to 1.8%/yr before). Regular but limited improvement in transport (0.9%/year): greater for cars than for trucks Energy efficiency index (ODEX) for final consumers (EU) Industry Transport Households Services Total ODEX=81 in % energy efficiency improvement or 1.3%/yr

10 Lithuania Estonia Bulgaria Poland Latvia Slovakia Hungary Ireland Czech Rep. UK Cyprus Italy Croatia Netherlands EU Luxembourg Greece Slovenia Norway Austria Germany Finland Sweden Belgium Romania Portugal Denmark Spain Denmark France Energy efficiency improvement above 1.5%/year since 2007 in 15 countries, of which 7 have accelerated their rate of improvement since To be compared to Article 7 target of EED. Energy efficiency improvements of final consumers by country 0% -1% -2% -3% -4% -5% -6% -7% -8% -9% -10% Larger progress since /16

11 Mtoe Around 235 Mtoe energy savings in 2016 compared to 2000 (i.e. 20% of final energy consumption). Without these savings the final energy consumption would have been 20% higher in Most of these savings come from households (43%), 30% from industry, 23% from transport and 4% from services. 250 Energy savings (EU) 4% % 30% 23% 0 Industry Transport Households Services Industry Transport Households Services

12 Drivers of consumption variation

13 Mtoe The primary consumption decreased faster than the final consumption between 2010 and This is mainly explained by a change in the power mix (higher share of renewables, lower share of nuclear). Drivers of primary energy consumption variation (EU): ,5-8,9-2,7-34,0-13, ,7 Var. primary cons. Var. cons. final Electricity penetration Efficiency of thermal power plants Power mix Other transformations

14 Mtoe Between 2010 and 2016, 3 main factors contributed to raise the final energy consumption: 1) economic activity (by 50 Mtoe) demography (9 Mtoe) and lifestyles (appliance ownership and larger dwellings) (7 Mtoe). All these two factors have a lower impact than before. Four factors offset these effects and contributed to lower consumption by 110 Mtoe, among which the largest are energy savings (75 Mtoe) and the colder climate in 2015 compared to 2010 (35 Mtoe). The magnitude of the climate is becoming quite large compared to the other factors. Drivers of final energy consumption variation (EU): ,4 9,1 7,4-5,1-35,1-55,5-74,7 Var. cons. final Activity Demography Lifestyles Structure Energy savings Climate Other -6,5

15 Energy intensity and structural changes ODYSSEE-MURE Project EE trends

16 %/year The final energy intensity can be explained by 3 factors: Structure effect (between main sectors in the GDP and between industrial branches), Energy savings and other effects. Savings explained a large part of the intensity decrease (around 80%) 0,4% 0,2% 0,0% -0,2% -0,4% -0,6% -0,8% -1,0% -1,2% -1,4% -1,6% -1,8% Decomposition of the final energy intensity: EU Total Total structure effect Savings Other ODYSSEE-MURE Project WP 2 ODYSSEE database

17 Conclusions The primary consumption target for 2020 should be easily reached, taking into account the present trends. The increasing share of renewables explains around 30% of the decrease in primary energy consumption reduction, while 60% of that reduction is coming from final consumers. Energy efficiency improved the most in sectors with strong regulations (households and cars) and the trend was not affected by the crisis and was even reinforced.

18 Thank you for your attention For more information me.fr Tel :