Energy system modeling. Fredrik Hedenus Energy and Environment Physical Resource Theory Chalmers

Transcription

1 Energy system modeling Fredrik Hedenus Energy and Environment Physical Resource Theory Chalmers

2 Outline Climate change Purpose of the model Basic model structure Background on energy technologies Results and analysis

3 Temperature Differences ( o C) with respect to Global average surface temperature Based on Brohan et.al. (2006) Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research and CRU, University of East Anglia Source:

4 What do we know about climate change There are a natural greenhouse effect. (The most important natural greenhouse gases are carbon dioxide and water vapor) The concentration of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas has increased in the atmosphere. As the concentration of greenhouse gases increases, so does the temperature, however unceratin to which extent. There has been climate change, but we have still not seen the full effect of our emissions

5 Long-term stabilization targets

6 CO 2 emissions (tonc/capita) CO 2 -C emissions per capita, USA 5 Canada, N.Z., Australia Russia Japan W.Europe E.Europe Middle East Sweden 1 China L.America Other Asia India World average Africa Population (million) Data from Sources: FAO, CDIAC

7 Gton CO2 Emission scenarios Emission scenarios ppm 450 ppm 400 ppm

8 Research questions Which energy technologies are the cheapest to use? What is the cost of reducing the emissions? Which interrelations are there in the energy system? Where is it most cost-effective to use biomass? What determines the future transport system?

9 Objective to minimize cost A(t) Annual cost of the energy system S(f,t) Energy supply p(f) Fuel cost I(x,y,t) Investments made k(x,y) Capital costs for energy conversion y x f y x k t y x I f p t f S t A, ), ( ),, ( ) ( ), ( ) (

10 Discounting Do you prefer the get 1000 USD today or in 10 years? We are richer in the future We get interest at the bank Uncertainty about the future

11 C T t 1 A ( t ) (1 r ) t 1 Objective function min C t T 1 (1 A( t) r) t 1 C, total cost, A(t) annual cost, t time Discount rate, r, 5 %

12 Main contraints Emission constraints Supply must be equal demand Fossil resource constraints ) ( ), ( ) ( f t f S t U f ), ( ),, ( ), ( ), ( y x t y x E t y e y D t x ) ( ), ( f R t t f S t ) ( ), ( f R t t f S t y t y E t e ), (elec, ) (elec,

13 Emission cap

14 Energy demand Electricity Transport Electricity Transport Feed-stock Residential and commercial heat Industrial heat Feed-stock Industrial heat Residential and commercial heat

15 EJ Non-renewable resources Resurser Reserver Olja Naturgas Kol Uran

16 Physical potential of renewable energy Human energy use 410 EJ/yr Biological production EJ/yr Wind, waves, thermal energy in oceans EJ/yr Solar radiation EJ/yr

17 Solenergi Solkraft Solceller

18 Nuclear power Pros U n -> X + Y + 2-3n + E 0.7% of natural uranium is U-235, the rest is U-238. No CO 2 emissions Large resource in sea water Relatively cheap Cons Waste Limited reserves Weapon proliferation Accidents

19 Bioenergy Plantations Rest flows Grains

20 Carbon capture and storage (CCS) Herzog et al., Scientific American, February 2000

21 Energy carrier Hydrogen H2 Fossil fuels with CCS Bioenergy (with CCS) Solar energy Synthetic fuels CH2 Fossil fuels with CCS Bioenergy (with CCS) Electricity Fossil fuels with CCS Nuclear power Solar energy

22 Vehicles types Hybrid cars 35% more efficient for personal transport Plug-in hybrid Charged from the grid Hydrogen fuel cells 70 % more efficient

23 (EJ) Global baseline scenario Primary energy supply KÄRNKRAFT Solar Hydro Wind KOLNuclear OLJA Coal 200 Natural gas NATURGAS Oil 0 Biomass

24 (EJ) 400 ppm scenario, nuclear power and CCS allowed Primary energy supply Nuclear Solar Coal CCS Natural gas-ccs Coal Natural gas Oil Biomass-CCS Biomass Wind Hydro

25 (EJ) 400 ppm, limited nuclear, CCS allowed Primary energy supply Nuclear Solar Coal CCS Natural gas-ccs Coal Natural gas Oil Biomass-CCS Biomass Wind Hydro

26 (EJ) 400 ppm, no nuclear and no CCS Primary energy supply Nuclear Solar Coal CCS Natural gas-ccs Coal Natural gas Oil Biomass-CCS Biomass Wind Hydro

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28 USD/yr Vehicle costs, carbon price 1000 USD/ ton C Carbon cost Vehicle cost Electricity cost Fuel cost Hyb-H2 PHEVbio PHEV- H2 FC Hyb-H2 PHEVbio PHEV- H2 FC PHEVgas PHEVbio Hyb hyb Solar-H2 Coal CCS Nuc Biomass Natural gas

29 Billion 400 ppm scenario, limited nuclear CCS allowed Number of cars Energy system dominated by coal with CCS, 400 ppm scenario 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 Hydrogen HEV 2,0 Natural gas HEV 1,0 Petrol HEV Petrol IC Syn fuel HEV 0,

30 (EJ) Industrial process heat Hydrogen Biomass Oil Coal CCS Coal Natural gas CCS Natural gas

31 District heating in Sweden, a carbon tax since 1991 TWh/år Energitillförsel för fjärrvärme Övrigt 30 Kol Olja Biomassa

32 Mton C/yr Where is it most cost-efficient to reduce emission? Carbon dioxide emissions per sector Electricity Feed-stock Industrial heat Residential heat Transport Airfuel

33 Billion Number of cars Energy system dominated by thermal solar energy, 400 ppm scenario 6,0 5,0 4,0 3,0 2,0 Syn fuel PHEV 1,0 Petrol HEV Natural gas HEV 0,0 Petrol IC

34 (EJ) What determines which cars that are cost-effective? Energy for road transport, time average Electricity Hydrogen Syntetic fuels Natural gas Petrol/Diesel 0 H2 (USD/GJ) Electricity (USD/GJ) Base Nuclear CCS Petrol/Diesel IC

35 Electricity 80% 60% 40% Monte Carlo analysis of vehicle costs Solar Nuclear CCS Solar average Nuclear average CCS average 20% 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Hydrogen

36 Marginal abatement cost Shadow price of emissions Inflate with discount rate M ( t) m( t)(1 r) t 1 M(t) carbon tax in net present value m(t) shadow price generated in the model

37 Mton C USD/ton C Carbon emissions and carbon price CO2 emissions Carbon price

38 What does this model do? Predict (what will happen in the future) Prescribe (how ought the future look like) Describe (how does the energy system work)

39 Technological change Exogenous Costs decrease by time Endogenous Costs decrease as a result of investments

40 Källa: Barreto 2000

41 Foresight Perfect foresight Finds the cost-effective solution Foresee potential cost reduction Limited foresight Does not find cost-effective solution Future cost-reductions is unknown Towards model of market behaviour

42 Modelling path dependency Base case Cap and trade system only Technology policy case Cap and trade system 200,000 fuel cell vehicles in GWp solar pv in 2040

43 (EJ) (EJ) Transportation fuels 450 ppm ITC 300 Electricity Aviation fuel Oil based fuels Synfuels from biomas and fossil fuels Transportation fuels 450 ppm ITC tech Aviation fuel Oil based fuels Synfuels from biomass and fossil fuels Electricity Hydrogen

44 Summary Energy system models can Give guidance on how we ought to develop the energy system Give better understanding of good use of scarce resources Give estimates of the cost of stabilizing the carbon emissions