III. Deutsch-Peruanisches Rohstoffforum 10. Oktober 2018 Hamburg

Transcription

1 III. Deutsch-Peruanisches Rohstoffforum 10. Oktober 2018 Hamburg Raw Materials Demand for Future Technologies and Development of the Markets Rohstoffbedarf für Zunkunftstechnologien und die Entwicklung des Rohstoffmarktes. Dr. Sven-Uwe Schulz German Mineral Resources Agency (DERA) at the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources is the central geoscientific authority providing advice to the German Federal Government in all geo-relevant questions. It is subordinate to the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Energy (BMWi). Source: Fotolia

2 AGENDA BGR Tasks and Services Future challenges and trends in the mineral raw materials sector Supply and Demand Scenarios Peruvian-German Trade

3 Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) Tasks: Advising the federal government and the German industry in questions relating to natural resources and the geosciences International geoscientific cooperation and Technical Cooperation Geoscientific research and development Budget & Personnel: app. 85 million core budget app. 17 million add. funds 760 staff

4 German Mineral Resources Agency (DERA) national information and consultancy platform for mineral raw materials part of German Geological Survey, Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, BGR Mission: contribute to a secure, affordable and sustainable mineral raw material supply for German industry via: Market Analyses Raw Materials Monitoring Evaluation of Mineral Resources

5 German Mineral Resources Agency BGR Interdisciplinary team with expertise in: Geosciences Raw materials economics Mining and processing technology Endowed with practical experience Well linked nationally and internationally Own & renowned commercial data bases Own investigations and evaluations on site

6 AGENDA BGR Tasks and Services Future challenges and trends in the mineral raw materials sector Supply and Demand Scenarios Peruvian-German Trade

7 Future Challenges and Trends: Technology diffusion over the time Number of years between invention of a technology and reaching 80% of the countries reporting for that. Diffusion of new invented technologies accelerated over the years worldwide data: World Bank (2008)

8 Future Challenges and Trends: Technologies Rate of Adoption of Several Technologies in Germany data: destatis.de (2017)

9 Future Challenges and Trends: Technologies Rate of Adoption of Several Technologies in Germany Rate of Adoption of consumer technologies increases in time frequency data: destatis.de (2017)

10 6,0 % Future Challenges and Trends: Concentration of world mine production (by value) 4,0 % 1,1 % 1,4 % 6,0 % 5,1 % 1,1 % 21,8 % 2,2 % 2,7 % 1,2 % 3,0 % 6,7 % 1,3 % 1,4 % BGR (2016) > 10 % 5-10 % 3,5 5 % 1 3,5 % 4,2 % 13,4 % metals, industrial minerals mining countries with share > 1% of world production (by value) These countries represents app. 82 % of world production (total value 2014: 768 bn. US$).

11 6,0 % Future Challenges and Trends: Concentration of world mine production (by value) 5,1 % 2,2 % 4,0 % 3,0 % world mine production currently concentrated in a few number of countries individual characteristics and risks for global supply. 6,7 % 1,1 % 1,4 % 1,3 % 1,1 % 6,0 % 2,7 % 21,8 % 1,4 % 1,2 % BGR (2016) > 10 % 5-10 % 3,5 5 % 1 3,5 % 4,2 % 13,4 % metals, industrial minerals mining countries with share > 1% of world production (by value) These countries represents app. 82 % of world production (total value 2014: 768 bn. US$).

12 Source: DERA (2016): DERA-Rohstoffliste 2016 Future Challenges and Trends: Increasing monopol structures in production Main exporters of raw materials and intermediate products of risk group 3

13 source: STRADEproject (2017) Future Challenges and Trends: EU-28 processing industry s sourcing of selected metals EU is one of the biggest consumers of raw materials EU s industry is highly dependent on imports of ores and concentrates and of intermediate produtcts

14 source: STRADEproject (2017) Future Challenges and Trends: Specific EU gross imports ores and intermediate products for EU processing industry EU s industry is highly dependent on imports of ores and concentrates and of intermediate produtcs EU is one of the biggest consumers of raw materials Share of intermediates in imports increases

15 Relative Prices (January 2003 = 1) Future Challenges and Trends: Relative Development of Raw Material Prices 2003 to ,0 12,0 10,0 8,0 Al Pb Cu Ni Zn Sn Brent-Oil Iron Ore 6,0 4,0 2,0 BGR (2018) 0,

16 Future Challenges and Trends: Volatility of Raw Materials Prices (year on year & long term) DERA (2018)

17 AGENDA BGR Tasks and Services Future challenges and trends in the mineral raw materials sector Supply and Demand Scenarios Peruvian-German Trade

18 Supply and Demand Scenarios: Eras of energy usage source: Zou CN. et al. (2016)

19 source: Zou CN. et al. (2016); Buchholz et al. (2015) Supply and Demand Scenarios: Eras of energy usage??? HHI oil ~ 2.000? Oil Era (+ gas + coal + uranium) HHI min >> Current Energy Transition & Digital Era Si, Li, SEE, Co, In, Te, Cd, Ga, etc. Wood & Coal Era

20 Supply and Demand Scenarios: DERA s Methodology Demand Supply Prices + + Risk Analysis Screening of Demand Screening of Global Production Screening of Prices Detailed Analysis Technological Development Economic Development Weaknesses in the supply chain Supply chain analysis Price formation Price development Evaluation of indicators Future market balance Risk assessment DERA Services for a Sustainable and Secure Raw Material Supply

21 Supply and Demand Scenarios: Raw Materials for Emerging Technologies blob=publicationfile&v=5

22 GWh/a Supply and Demand Scenarios: LIB-Growth Scenario 2025 ~10 Mio. EV New Registrations in EV Implications on raw material supply. 400 EES Power devices Aftermarket +67 Cobalt Lithium 300 Portable Equipment Nickel Graphite Source: DERA 2017

23 Supply and Demand Scenarios: Evaluation of supply traction battery High risks Low risks High risks Bets on demand Political uncertainties in DRC Image risks by artisanal mining Supply deficit in further processing possible China investing in mining and processing High price increases since end 2016 Cobalt Lithium Strong impulse on demand by e-mobility Massive increase of capacities, no supply deficit in mid term High supply concentration in mine production and processing High price increases since end 2016 Challenges in downstream sector Nickel Class 1 as key Nickel Graphite Chinese market power Low supply concentration in mine production and refinery Li-Ion battery will be most important driver of total nickel demand Nickel Class 1 (Feedstock for NiSO 4 ) New capacities for processing and refinery mainly in far east Control of production and processing by China High environmental impact of processing Massive increase of capacities, no supply deficit in mine production Recently price increases at battery quality

24 [%] t Li content Supply and Demand Scenarios: Lithium - No Lithium-Ion Battery without it. 100, t Li Demand increase: factor t Li Market balance in 2025 probable based on our scenarios but depended on numerous factors. 90,0 80,0 70, ,0 50,0 40,0 30,0 20,0 10,0 0, (Roskill 2016a) 2025 (DERA 2017) Demand Demand 2025 (DERA 2017) Base case: ~10 Mio. EV Registrations in 2025 (370 GWh) Other Aluminium Primary Batteries Air Treatment Metallurgical Powders Polymers Glass Greases Glass-Ceramics Ceramics Rechargeable Batteries Current Production (2015) Additional capacities (DERA estimates) New projects 2025 Source: DERA 2017

25 Cobalt (kt) Supply and Demand Scenarios: Cobalt - Key Material for E-Mobility Even with lower metal contents, Cobalt demand will increase by almost 90%. Market balance in 2025 seems possible, but depends on DRC and China. 187 Expected demand (2025): 187 kt expected capacity Base case: ~10 Mio. EV Registrations in 2025 (370 GWh) Demand 2016 Additional demand non-ev Additional demand LIB-EV Demand 2025 (DERA estimates) Source: DERA 2017

26 Supply and Demand Scenarios: Battery index: breather for battery materials? Increasing raw materials prices trace on battery prices Material costs represent about 50 % of total costs of a Li-Ion battery. With regard to cells more! Prices for cobalt and lithium drop after rally In short: decreasing production costs are NOT able to compensate raw materials price increase

27 Supply and Demand Scenarios: E-Mobility Driver for Copper? BEV bus Hybrid bus Copper content per kg/vehicle Copper demand to increase: ~1,5 Mio. t additional by xev Dynamic demand driver Mine production 2016: 19.2 Mio. t BEV car 83 Hybrid car % ICE car 23 source: IDtechEx source: BYD source: Audi

28 Supply and Demand Scenarios: Final Thoughts Raw materials for the mentioned technologies are geologically not scarce. Seller s market: Price rally for Lithium & Cobalt. New projects and expansions of current producers will need to supply the increasing demand in the mid- and long term. Large investments necessary. Challenges remain to increase the production. Purchasing risks remain high due to concentrated markets. Specific qualities (battery grade) may become bottlenecks. Sustainable sourcing strategy will be of importance. Closing the loop: Recycling will become important. EV market depends on the developments in China. Copper demand to increase by ~ 8%. Source: Fotolia

29 AGENDA BGR Tasks and Services Future challenges and trends in the mineral raw materials sector Supply and Demand Scenarios Peruvian-German Trade

30 Peruvian-German Trade

31 Peruvian-German Trade 45,6 % Mineral Products, Metals & Precious Metals

32 Peruvian-German Trade

33 Peruvian-German Trade

34 Call for Papers & Save the Date December, 13 th, 2018 Berlin, Am Schillertheater 2 Market Potentials Peru: Raw Materials for the Energy Transition and Technology Transfer from Germany

35 Thank you very much The world we have created today has problems which cannot be solved by thinking the way we thought when we created them. Albert Einstein German Mineral Resources Agency (DERA) at the Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resource (BGR)