Transformation towards a sustainable European Energy System Which Roadmaps?

Transcription

1 Transformation towards a sustainable European Energy System Which Roadmaps? Institut für Energiewirtschaft und Rationelle Energieanwendung Universität Stuttgart EUROPEAN ENERGY CONFERENCE 212 Maastricht, April 212 1

2 What is an Energy Roadmap? A useful Roadmap is not a blue-print of a particular technology pathway to a decarbonised energy system in the future. A useful Energy Roadmap has to provide information for the design of an energy policy framework by exploring the technical and systems aspects as well as the economic implications of a range of possible transition paths to a low-carbon energy system by making transparent the potential trade-offs between the three objectives - decarbonisation, security of supply and competitiveness of the transition pathways 1

3 Energy in Europe the situation at the outset 3

4 Primary energy consumption EU-27 [EJ/a] Energy in the EU-27: Gross Inland Primary Energy Consumption (by Fuel) Solid fuels Oil Gas Nuclear Renewables Others Import Dependency [%] % Energy Intensity [toe/ 2 ] Source: EUROSTAT (212) % 4

5 Final Energy Consumption EU-27 [EJ/a] Final Energy Consumption in the EU-27 (by Sector) Transport Services, Agriculture and Others Households Industry Source: EUROSTAT (212) 5

6 Final Energy Consumption Transport EU-27 [EJ] Final Energy Consumption in Transport in the EU Diesel Gasoline 16 Kerosene Gas (incl. LPG) Electricity Bio fuels Source: EUROSTAT (212)

7 Final Electricity Consumption EU-27 [TWh] Electricity consumption in the EU-27 is increasing Transport Services, Agriculture, Others Households Industry Electricity is the fuel for lighting, information and communication as well as stationary drives can be produced from all primary energy sources offers an energyefficient substitution of hydrocarbons (heat pumps, electric vehicles) Source: EUROSTAT (212) 8

8 Gross electricity generation EU-27 [TWh] Electricity in the EU-27 Gross Electricity Generation (EU- 27) in 21: 3346 TWh Electricity Generation Capacity (EU-27) in 21: 871 GW 35 Others Nuclear Natural Gas Renewables Petroleum Products Solid fuels Biomass 3 25 Wind 9% Solar 4% 3% Others % Coal 23% 2 15 Hydro 16% Petroleum products 6% 1 5 Nuclear 15% Natural gas 24% Source: EUROSTAT (212), EURELECTRIC (211), own calculations 1

9 Shares in electricity generation Electricity Generation by Fuel - Selected Countries 21 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Source: EUROSTAT (212) PL DK IT DE EU-27 FR SE CH (29) Hard coal Lignite Petroleum Products Natural Gas Nuclear Hydro Wind Others 11

10 Net Imports of Electricity of EU-27 Countries (21) France Germany Czech Republic Bulgaria Spain Poland Denmark Ireland United Kingdom Netherlands EU-27 Greece Finland Italy Source: EUROSTAT (212) Net imports of electricity, 21 [TWh] 12

11 Electricity generation from renewables [TWh] Share of renewables in gross electricity consumption Installed Capacity of Electricity Generation and Electricity from Renewables in the EU-27 Installed capacity for electricity generation [GW] Others Biomass Solar Wind Hydro RES electricity RES share 19% 17% 15% 13% 11% 9% 7% Source: EUROSTAT (212) 13

12 Energy related CO 2 emissions [Mt] Sectoral shares in energy related CO 2 emissions [%] Energy Related CO 2 Emissions (by Sector) Others 45 4 Residential, Services and Agriculture 35 3 Transport 25 Sum: 3527 Mt 19.7% 26.4% Industry % Energy sector 5 4.% 29 Source: UNFCCC (212) 15

13 CO 2 Emissions in Europe: Selected Countries CO 2 emissions per capita [t/inhabitant] Energiebedingte Energy related CO2-Emissionen 2 emissions je per Einwohner capita CO2-Emissionen 2 emissions der in electricity Stromerzeugung generation je Einwohner per capita Denmark Germany EU-27 France Sweden Switzerland Source: UNFCCC (21) and EUROSTAT (21), own calculations; CO 2 in electricity generation comprises emissions from public electricity and heat production 5.6.3

14 Energy Outlook Comparison of three Pathways to a Low-carbon Energy System 19

15 Overview of Scenarios Current Policy Scenario Includes policies adopted by 211 e.g. RES and GHG reduction targets 22; Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) Targets; after Fukushima nuclear policy plans Decarbonisation Scenarios: GHG-Red. 2% in 22; 8% in 25 Renewable Energy Pathway Increasing reliance on RES, 6% share in gross final energy and 65%share in electricity consumption 25 High Renewable Electricity More renewables, 8% share in electricity comsumption 25 Ressource Efficient Decarbonisation Pathway Decarbonisation options compete on economic grounds no specific support measures or political limitations for technologies 2

16 21 Primary energy consumption [PJ] Primary Energy Consumption in the EU Net electricity import Waste (non renewable) Other renewables Hydro, wind, solar, Ocean Nuclear Natural gas Oil Lignite Coal 21

17 Share of imports of fossil energies of total primary energy consumption Share of fossil fuel imports in total primary energy consumption in EU-27 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% %

18 Modell Total final energy consumption [PJ] Final energy consumption in the EU27 6 Others (Methanol, Hydrogen) 5 Waste 4 Renewables 3 Heat 2 Electricity 1 Gas Petroleum products Coal

19 Modell Final energy consumption Transport [PJ] Final energy consumption transport in the EU27 18 Others (Methanol, Hydrogen, DME) 16 Waste Renewables 1 Heat 8 Electricity 6 4 Gas 2 Petroleum products Coal

20 21 Net electricity supply [TWh] Share of renewable electricity generation of total gross electricity consumption Electricity Generation EU % 8% 7% Electricity storage (excl. pump storage) Electricity Imports Desertec Net Imports w/o Desertec Others / Waste non-ren. Other Renewables 3 6% Biomass / Waste ren. Solar 25 5% Wind offshore Wind onshore % 3% Hydro (incl. pump storage) Nuclear Gas CCS 1 2% Gas w/o CCS Oil 5 1% Lignite CCS Lignite w/o CCS % Coal CCS Coal w/o CCS Share of renewable energies 26

21 21 Share of net electricity generation Share of electricity generation in the EU-27 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% Other Renewables Nuclear 3% 2% Fossil CCS 1% % Fossile non CCS

22 Statisitic Modell Electricity net imports [TWh] Electricity exchange 4 3 East Europe Baltic states 2 Scandinavia Greece Italy+Slovenia Germany Alps (AT, CH) Benelux France Iberia UK+Ireland

23 21 Net electricity capacity [GW] Generation Capacities in the EU Electricity storage (excl. pump storage) Others / Waste nonren. Other Renewables Biomass / Waste ren. Solar Wind Hydro incl. pump storage Nuclear Natural gas Oil Lignite Coal 29

24 21 Net electricity capacity [MW] Electricity storage capacities in the EU Vehicle Storage CAES Batteries Pump Storage

25 Average levelised costs of generating electricity [EUR 2 /MWh] Average cost of electricity generation

26 21 Delta system costs comp. to -21 [Bln EUR 2 ] Annual energy system costs compared to Transboundary Carbon transport/storage Certificate costs Biofuel Trade Electricity Trade Costs Investment Costs Variable Costs -5 Fix Costs -1 Total costs

27 Total undiscounted investment in the public electricty generation sector [Bio. Euro] Investments in the electricity sector EU

28 Cumulated energy system costs EU 27 Absolute Difference to Cumulated system costs compared to [Bln 2 ] : Renewable Energy Pathway : High Renewable Electricity : Ressource Efficient Decarbonisation Pathway

29 Thank you very much for your attention!