Adaptation of a Portuguese water supply company (EPAL) to climate change: producing socio economic and water use scenarios for

Transcription

1 Adaptation of a Portuguese water supply company (EPAL) to climate change: producing socio economic and water use scenarios for the XXI century Young Scientist Workshop 31 October 4 November 2011 Amsterdam ADAPTACLIMA EPAL Project General Approach Adaptaclima-EPAL Project Main Objective The project ADAPTACLIMA, promoted by EPAL, the largest Portuguese Water Supply Utility, aims to provide the company with an adaptation strategy in the medium and long term to reduce the vulnerabilities of its activities to climate change. This work main objective Produce socioeconomic scenarios of water use in the area of action of EPAL for the XXI Century 1

2 Socioeconomic Adaptaclima EPAL Socioeconomic Tasks SRES and Ciesin (to Portugal); INE baseline data (2000 and 2005); Municipality Downscaled 1. Population 3. Water Withdrawals 2. Land Use WatClim scenarios for Europe and Portugal data from EPAL, INE, PNA Downscaled scenarios for each sector [Study Area, EPAL Supply area, Lisboa and Batalha Municipality] SRES downscaled scenarios for Europe and Portugal CorineLand Cover 2000 Downscaled for each Municipality Population in the study area Downscaled Socioeconomic Resident Population 2001 e 2005 INE 2005 (INE) Project Selected Municipalities (CAOP) Adaptaclima Epal Population B2 A2 A1/ B1 IPCC Downscaled for Europe (CIESIN) 2005 (INE) B A A1/ B % Growth CIESIN CIESIN - B2-1,65% -1,82% 0,32% 0,55% 0,96% CIESIN - A2-0,21% -0,63% 1,76% 1,89% 2,36% CIESIN - A1 e B1-0,43% -0,89% -0,78% -0,65% -1,03% 2

3 Downscaled Socioeconomic Land use scenarios until 2080 Agriculture Grassland Urban Consumption for each sector in the area of the Project Adaptaclima-EPAL CScenarioX t = C b * ΔSector t * Ef t * Comp t * Clima t Base year Agriculture * 1 1,44 km ,6% 22,7% 65,7% 60,2% 59,4% 98,25% 46,6% 63,90% Industry * m 3 Domestic * m 3 Services * m 3 48,72% 37,5% 28% 49,77% 74,12% 58,3% 52,2% * 1 Base Data: Plano Nacional da Água 2001 e Corine Land Cover 2000 * 2 Base Data: INSAAR 2007 e Corine Land Cover

4 Conclusions adaptation Socioeconomic scenarios are a useful framework for thinking about the future and fundamental for EPAL to prepare a long-term strategy to climate change that is future-proof, i.e. that can contribute to reduce vulnerability to climate change in many different future societies. Tasks that look at the impacts in the resources (quantity and quality of water) will also need to be taken into account in the process, so that the adaptation occurs in a sustainable way. To build a consistent strategy for climate change adaptation, both climate and socioeconomic scenarios are likely important, and socioeconomic scenarios can decrease the decision failures (Drunen et. al., 2011). References IPCC, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA. Kok et al First draft of pan-european storylines - results from the second pan-european stakeholder workshop. SCENES Deliverable 2.6. Wangeningen. Rounsevell et al. (2006) A coherent set of future land use change scenarios for Europe. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment,114: /2/e74e3270aec54709d8515b762e98ff71 Seckler et al World water demand and supply: and issues. Research Report 19. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute. Shen et al. (2008) projection of future world water resources under SRES scenarios: water withdrawal, Hydrological Sciences Journal, 53:1, Vuuren et al. (2006). Downscaling drivers of global environmental change - Enabling use of global SRES scenarios at the national and grid levels. Report Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. Available at 4

5 Thank you for your attention 5