Renewable Energy Perspectives and Roadmaps 2010

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1 Per lo sviluppo di una filiera industriale delle rinnovabili in Italia Renewable Energy Perspectives and Roadmaps 2010 Rome, 13 July 2010 Roberto VIGOTTI Chair REWP IEA

2 Energy scenarios. What for? neither predictions nor forecasts, but images of how alternative futures could unfold tools for investigating alternative future developments and their implications (what if ) guidance to decision makers to identify which combination of technologies and policies will be most effective in their specific situation

3 OECD and non-oecd primary energy demand in the Baseline scenario Primary energy demand in non-oecd countries is projected to double, much faster than in OECD countries, in the Baseline scenario, where no new energy or climate policies are introduced.

4 Mapping a Better Energy Future

5 The context Need a global energy technology revolution to meet climate change, economic development and energy security challenges. Using a combination of existing, improved and innovative technologies is possible to cut 50% the emissions; it will require significant investments but also produce significant benefits. Some early signs of progress, but much more needs to be done. Which technologies can play a role? What are the costs and benefits? What policies are needed?

6 Global energy-related CO 2 emissions in Baseline and BLUE Map scenarios Global CO 2 emissions double in the Baseline, but in the BLUE Map scenario abatement across all sectors reduces emissions to half 2005 levels by 2050.

7 Key technologies for reducing global CO 2 emissions A wide range of low carbon technologies (cost up to 170 US$/tCO2) will be necessary to reduce energyrelated CO 2 emissions substantially. Efficiency a low cost option priority

8 Contributions to emissions reductions in OECD Europe End-use sector measures contribute nearly 45% while renewables 21% of the reductions between the Baseline and BLUE scenarios in 2050.

9 The role of renewables for world electricity Renewables provide from almost half (Blue MAP) to three quarters (Blue High RE) of the global electricity generation in 2050

10 Decarbonisation of electric power generation in OECD Europe A mix of nuclear, renewables and fossil-fuels with CCS. In the High RE nearly 80% of electricity is generated by RE, including some 550 TWh import from Mediterranean

11 Annual capacity additions to achieve the BLUE Map scenario

12 Financing and returns on investments For Baseline 270 trillion $ investments, 90% demand side by consumers for capital equipment For Blue map 316 trillion $, +17% Last 3 years, investments in low carbon technologies averaged some 165 million $ To implement Blue Map scenario require some 750 billion $/year up to 2030 and 1.6 trillion $/year up Also very positive returns on investments: substantial fuel savings due to efficiency and lower prices substantial opportunities for business: forward looking companies competitive in deploying breakthrough and emerging technologies

13 Additional investment and fuel savings, Even using a 10% discount rate, fuel savings (112 trillion $) in the BLUE Map scenario more than offset the additional investment (+46 trillion $) required.

14 IEA Roadmap Status

15 IEA Roadmap Approach Engage cross-section of stakeholders Identify a baseline where is technology today? Use model results to set a vision for the technology s long-term contribution up Identify barriers technical, regulatory, policy, financial, public acceptance Develop implementation action items for stakeholders

16 Solar PV Technology Roadmap Low-carbon energy technology roadmaps OECD/IEA 2010

17 PV Deployment Trends New additions 2009 (prelim data EPIA) Country MW Germany 3800 Italy 730 Japan 484 US 475 Czech Rep 411

18 Solar PV Vision PV can provide 5% of global electricity generation in 2030, 11% in 2050

19 PV Deployment and Competitiveness levels Retail electricity prices

20 Selected Key Actions Design and apply effective incentive schemes Consistent with long-term targets and policies Decreasing over time in order to foster innovation and technological improvement Identify appropriate financing mechanisms and business models Implement efficient administrative procedures Increase R&D efforts to accelerate deployment and cost reductions, while supporting longer-term breakthroughs Develop building codes and standards for PV products Enhance education and training programmes

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22 Concentrating Solar Power Today

23 Possible uses of storage: intermediate load and delayed intermediate load

24 CSP costs and global output

25 The CSP Roadmap: 2050

26 Technology comparison: PV-CSP PV takes all light applied everywhere Mostly at end-users Variable Peak & mid-peak load Grid parity (retail prices) by 2020 Smart grids for integration CSP takes direct light in semi-arid countries Mostly for utilities Firm, dispatchable Peak to base-load storage Competitive peak power by 2020 HVDC lines for transport

27 Conclusions IEA Solar Roadmaps Solar electricity could represent up to 20% to 25% of global electricity production by 2050 Producing up to 9000 TWh per year Saving almost 6 billion tonnes CO 2 per year This decade crucial for effective policies to enable the development of solar electricity PV and CSP rather complementary Need to plan and invest in grid infrastructure (smart grids for PV, HVDC transmission lines for CSP)

28 Technology policies Carbon pricing is important, but should be complemented by other policies Policies must be tailored to the technology s stage of development and reflect good design principles Public RD&D spending must at least double Governments need to implement best practices in energy RD&D A number of enabling actions are also needed: Private sector leadership Expanded human capacity Greater government outreach and planning on infrastructure needs Expanded, more effective international collaboration

29 Policies for supporting low-carbon technologies Government support policies need to be appropriately tailored to the stage(s) of technological development.

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31 Thank You