A GLOBAL WATER RISK MAPPING TOOL

Transcription

1 AQUEDUCT WRI S GLOBAL WATER RISK MAPPING TOOL

2 A GLOBAL WATER RISK MAPPING TOOL

3 ZOOM IN FOR MORE DETAIL 15,000 CATCHMENTS

4 AQUEDUCT ALLIANCE

5 AQUEDUCT WATER RISK FRAMEWORK Overall Water Risk Physical risk: QUANTITY Baseline water stress Inter-annual variability Seasonal variability Flood occurrence Drought severity Upstream storage Groundwater stress Physical risk: QUALITY Return flow ratio Upstream protected land Regulatory & reputational risks Media coverage Access to water Threatened amphibians

6 DATA SELECTION CRITERIA Literature review Global coverage for comparability Publicly available Comparative analysis of: Granularity, Time frame, Publication date and source Consulted with subject matter experts

7 EXPERT REVIEWERS CDP Water Disclosure Project Ceres Columbia University Deloitte Consulting LLP Global Adaptation Institute Global Water Strategies Nanjing University National Geographic Pacific Institute The World Bank US Environmental Protection Agency University of Michigan at Ann Arbor University of North Carolina Chapel Hill University of Virginia Water Footprint Network World Business Council for Sustainable Development Yale University The Nature Conservancy

8 BASELINE WATER STRESS total annual water withdrawals (municipal, industrial, and agricultural) expressed as a percent of the total annual available flow; higher values indicate more competition among users Data Sources: Global Drainage Basin Database, National Institute for Environmental Studies of Japan Global Land Data Assimilation System 2, NASA Goddard Labs, Water Use by Sector, Food and Agriculture Organization, 2010 Consumptive Use Ratios, Shiklamanov and Rodda, 2003

9 FLOOD OCCURRENCE count of the number of floods recorded from 1985 to the present date Data Sources: Global Archive of Large Flood Events, Brakenridge, G., Dartmouth Flood Observatory,

10 DROUGHT SEVERITY average length times dryness of droughts from 1901 to 2008 (drought is defined as a contiguous period where soil moisture remains below the 20th percentile) Data Sources: Development of a 50-yr high-resolution global dataset of meteorological forcing for land surface modeling, Li H., Sheffield J., and Wood E.F.,

11 GROUNDWATER STRESS the ratio of groundwater withdrawal relative to the recharge rate to aquifer size; values above one indicate where unsustainable consumption could affect groundwater availability and dependent ecosystems Data Sources: Water Balance of Global Aquifers Revealed by Groundwater Footprint, Gleeson, T., Wada, Y., Bierkens, M.F.P., and van Beek, L.P.H.,

12 THE POWER OF AGGREGATION

13 SECTOR SPECIFIC WEIGHTING Textile Construction Materials Mining Oil & Gas Semi-conductor Electric power Chemicals Food & Beverage Agriculture WRI Default 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% % Quantity % Quality % Reg&Rep

14 CHALLENGE: RISK TO BUSINESS OPERATIONS P&G USES AQUEDUCT TO EVALUATE MANUFACTURING FACILITIES

15 CHALLENGE: SUPPLY CHAIN RISK McDONALD S USES AQUEDUCT TO MAP 353 OF ITS LARGEST SUPPLY CHAIN FACILITIES Photo: flickr/bigbirdz

16 Challenges to Food Security: 40% of irrigated crops in the United States is located in areas of water stress concern USA, Baseline Water Stress in areas with Irrigated Agriculture

17 Challenges to Food Security: 73% of current irrigated crops in the United States would see water stress grow 2 to 8 times worse by 2025 USA, Change in Water Stress by 2025 in areas with Irrigated Agriculture (IPCC Scenario A1B)

18 Challenges to Energy Security: 19% of S&E Asian power plant design capacity is located in areas of water stress concern Southeast Asia, Baseline Water Stress and Power Plants

19 Challenges to Energy Security: 55% of S&E Asian current power plant design capacity would see water stress grow 2 to 8 times worse by 2025 Southeast Asia, Long Term Change in Water Stress and Power Plants (2025, IPCC Scenario A1B)

20 THREATS TO NATIONAL SECURITY

21 COMING SOON: UPDATED PROJECTIONS CHANGE IN WATER STRESS: 2025 Data: The Coca-Cola Company

22 COMING SOON: LIVE SATELLITE DATA

23 WATER POLICY COMING SOON: POLICY, LEGAL, & REGULATORY INDICATORS Image TBD suggestions? Photo: flickr/waferboard

24 CONCLUSION WRI.org/Aqueduct

25 DATA SOURCES: PHYSICAL RISK Water supply and demand: Global Drainage Basin Database, National Institute for Environmental Studies of Japan, polygons NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System Version 2 (GLDAS-2), , 1 x 1 degree Water Use by Sector, Food and Agriculture Organization, 2010, country Consumptive Use Ratios, Shiklamanov and Rodda, 2003, 26 regions Floods: Global Archive of Large Flood Events, Brakenridge, G., Dartmouth Flood Observatory, , polygons Drought: Development of a 50-yr high-resolution global dataset of meteorological forcing for land surface modeling, Li H., Sheffield J., and Wood E.F., , 1 x 1 degree Groundwater Stress: Water Balance of Global Aquifers Revealed by Groundwater Footprint, Gleeson, T., Wada, Y., Bierkens, M.F.P., and van Beek, L.P.H., , 50 x 50 km Dams Global Reservoir and Dam Database V1.1, Global Water System Project, 2007, points Protected areas: The World Database on Protected Areas, IUCN, UNEP World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 2012, polygons

26 DATA SOURCES: REGULATORY/REPUTATIONAL RISK Google News, Proportion of Population Using an Improved Drinking Water Source, World Health Organization/UNICEF Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply and Sanitation, 2010 The IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, IUCN, 2011

27 DISAGGREGATION Baseline Water Stress (withdrawal/available flow) Inter-annual Variability (standard deviation/mean annual supply) Seasonal Variability (standard deviation/mean monthly average supply Upstream Storage (upstream storage capacity/mean supply) Return Flow Ratio (upstream non-consumptive use / available flow) Upstream Protected Land (% total supply originating from protected lands)

28 HYDROLOGICAL MODELING Key Data: Total Blue Water (B t ) Runoff Definition: Flow accumulated runoff upstream of the catchment plus the runoff in the catchment. Data Sources: GDBD basins, NASA GLDAS2 runoff Runoff A Total Blue Water (B) = Runoff (A) + Runoff (B) B

29 HYDROLOGICAL MODELING Key Data: Available Blue Water (B a ) Definition: Data Sources: Total amount of water available to a catchment before any uses in the catchment are satisfied and is calculated as runoff plus all water flowing into the catchment from upstream catchments minus upstream consumptive use. GDBD basins, NASA GLDAS 2 runoff, UN FAO water use, Shiklomanov, I.A. and J.C. Rodda consumptive use ratios Runoff Runoff A Consumptive Use Available Blue Water (B) = Runoff (A) Consumptive Use (A) + Runoff (B) B