Unfavourable winter and summer climatic conditions decrease annual production levels in north-western countries. Southern and eastern

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1 Unfavourable winter and summer climatic conditions decrease annual production levels in north-western countries. Southern and eastern countries show production levels close to or above average values. Remote Sensing analysis Seasonal cumulated NDVI The picture above displays the global biomass accumulation during the October 29 September 21 season. The cumulated NDVI values were computed using the observed NDVI values for the whole period. The final cumulated NDVI was compared with the historical database a. This comparison allows the assessing of the level of production of grasslands in Europe during the last season. The final balance shows a lower final production across north-west Europe. Northwest and central France show the most significant production deficits, largely due to the drought during this summer in these regions. In Ireland and the UK the situation has improved compared with predictions in the last newsletter, but production remains insufficient in some areas. Thus, weather conditions this summer have improved production levels of grasslands and forage plants in The Netherlands, Belgium, Denmark and northern regions of Germany, but they still show a production shortfall. The areas concerned have not been able to supply their needs for grassland and fodder production. In order to solve this problem, EC publication from JRC/IPSC/MARS/AGRI4CAST (agri4cast@jrc.ec.europa.eu) 1 MARS bulletin: MARS agro-meteorological database:

2 some crop production (i.e. grain maize, barley) was turned over to feed. Spain, Portugal, Italy and all countries in Eastern Europe show production levels above normal in many regions. 2

3 MAXIMUM SCENARIO AVERAGE SCENARIO MINIMUM SCENARIO Potential NDVI evolution for the growing season at 31 July and 31 August As we showed in the previous bulletin, the maps below display the global biomass accumulation until the end of the growing season and therefore, evaluate whether the on-going season is close to normal values or to an extreme event a. The cumulated NDVI values for the end of the season were computed using the observed NDVI values from 1st October 29 to 31 July and 31 August 21 respectively; adding historical average NDVI values after these dates until 3 September. The NDVI cumulated values obtained were compared with the three historical series previously calculated (minimum, maximum and average). Observed conditions until 31 July Observed conditions until 31 August 3

4 The maps show that production levels under various scenarios since July 31 are lower than normal in north-west Europe. The minimum scenario clearly depicts a critical situation in all these areas. Dry weather in August in the north-west of France generated a non-recoverable deficit and the remaining part of the season was not characterized by extremely favourable climatic conditions. Also note the exceptional nature of biomass production in some areas of Italy, Spain and Romania. Good weather conditions in these countries helped ensure an annual production level higher than normal since last August. Country analysis introduction The analysis at country level concentrates on two main classes as taken from the Eurostat database: Permanent Grasslands and meadow b and Forage plants.c. These two classes represent 33% and 11% respectively of the total Utilised Agricultural Area (UAA) in EU. For the Forage plants class, for our analysis we will consider separately Temporary grass d used for silage and hay, and Green Maize e. Main areas of Forage plant production in the continental area of the EU are mainly connected to the presence of livestock for milk production. Permanent grasslands and meadow (PG): Most of the surface of permanent grasslands and pastures is located in United Kingdom and Ireland, Spain, France, Germany, Romania, Italy and Poland (8% of the total surface of PG in the EU). These countries have also the highest concentration of grazing livestock in the EU, with around 7 % of the total cattle, sheep, goats and pigs. The period of grazing differs in relation to the specific environments, with Spain having the core of the grazing season in winter and early spring while elsewhere grazing starts later and proceeds into the summer. Temporary grass for silage and hay (TG) production is a multi-seasonal cultivation practice (one to five years) and constitutes a semi-permanent land cover. The main hay farming areas are located in France, United Kingdom and Ireland, Italy, Sweden and Finland. Green maize (GM): The cultivation of maize harvested at milky maturation is a common practice in the irrigated agricultural districts, especially in Germany, France, Poland, Netherland and northern Italy. The derived silage is mainly destined to milk producing livestock. Campaign analysis at country level Spain and Portugal: High water contents and favourable climatic conditions during summer allow high production levels. The balance of production of grasslands in this campaign has been fairly positive. The production levels observed in all production areas of the peninsula are at or above the historical average values measured by remote sensing (period ). Only in the Dehesa some located areas with deficit biomass production (south of Badajoz, Huelva and northern Sevilla) are depicted. These good production levels are partly due to the large amount of rain accumulated during the winter. Initially the development of grassland had been delayed due to heavy rains and low temperatures during February-May. However, in the successive months, the temperatures were near seasonal values, and higher (July and August), generating a slight advancement of the phenology f at the end. These temperatures combined with good availability of water in the soil f, have produced high growth rates. Production of silage maize was also encouraged by the good conditions. In comparison with the results of the previous bulletin, we consider that in Spain production levels have been closer to the scenario of maximum values during the last months. 4

5 Daily values Extremadura - (ES) Daily and Cumulated rain Current period Average ( ) Cumulated 1-Jan 1-Feb 1-Mar 1-Apr 1-May 1-Jun 1-Jul 1-Aug 1-Sep 3-Sep France: Significant production shortfall in north-west regions. Eastern regions show in general average values. Green maize is also affected by dry conditions and yield values decrease comparing to 29. Two contrasted situations have been observed this year in France concerning grasslands and forage production. On the one hand, the production levels observed in eastern regions are at or above the historical average (particularly in some areas of Burgundy, Rhone-Alpes and Alpes Maritimes). On the other hand, in the central regions (Limousin, southern Auvergne and northern Midi Pyrenees) and particularly in the northwest regions (Pays de la Loire, Brittany, Poitou- Charentes, Basse Normandie) production losses exceeding 2% are observed. This is because the cumulated precipitation in north-western areas was significantly lower than normal during the spring and summer. A first dry period had already occurred from April to May affecting production at the beginning of the season (see previous bulletin). Significant rainfall recorded at the end of May increased the soil water content f. However, another dry period started in early June (combined with a heat wave in late June) and extended until the last dekad of August. All these factors have significantly affected the production of grassland, but also that of green maize. Thus, in these regions it was not possible to meet the demand for animal feed. % Pays de la Loir (France) Relative Soil Moisture of Forage permanent +2St_dev Average ( ) -2St_dev JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV Ireland and United Kingdom: Spring dry conditions affected annual biomass production levels in both countries. Favourable summer conditions improved situation. In general, the total biomass production in both countries was lower than historical average values measured by remote sensing (period ). Low temperatures early in the year generated a slight development delay that lasted until the end of the season in all production areas. But the main cause of this decline in production is due to the significant dry period observed during spring in all regions, and that continued during the summer in some regions of south-west of the UK. This drought (April-June) had a major impact in the total biomass production in both countries, even though the weather in July and August (high temperatures combined with significant rain) allowed to enhance the situation and final accumulated NDVI values do not reach the minimum scenario. Only West Ireland recorded higher values than the historical average. Finally, animal feed could also be affected during the driest period (April-May). 5

6 % 14 Southern and Ea (Ireland) Relative Soil Moisture of Forage permanent St_dev Average ( ) -2St_dev JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV Germany, the Netherlands and Denmark: Deficit production levels in northern areas. Favourable conditions in southern Germany allow good production levels for grasslands and green maize. Biomass production levels were quite different between northern and southern regions in this area. In the North (especially in areas of northern Germany and Denmark), total biomass production was lower than historical values measured by remote sensing (period ). While a slight development delay was observed at the beginning of the cycle in these regions, it was caught and surpassed at the end of the season, particularly due to high temperatures recorded in July. In addition, two consecutive dry spells registered in April and early summer (from June 2 to August 1), combined with the warm period definitely affected the total biomass production that could not catch up to average levels despite more favourable conditions registered at the end of the cycle. In contrast, in southern Germany, the production levels observed are at the same level or above historical average values. Favourable weather conditions in the month of August and September allowed the maintenance of annual production levels in these regions. Green maize production pattern was comparable to that of grassland, with a decrease in northern areas and values close to normal in the south. DEUTSCHLAND - (DE) Maximum daily temperatures ( C) Stdev Average ( ) May 21-Jun 21-Jul 21-Aug 21-Sep -2Stdev 3-Sep Italy: Good levels of biomass production in general. Southern areas display exceptional production levels. In general, total biomass production was higher than historical values measured by remote sensing (period ) in all regions due to the favourable climatic conditions recorded throughout the cycle. In the southern regions and islands, an advancement of the cycle that had already been observed at the beginning of the season was maintained until the end. Temperatures slightly above seasonal values combined with significant levels of rainfall generated an exceptional growth of grasslands in these areas. Thus, values higher than normal growth (up to 4% above the average) were registered in all areas classified as grassland or forage (using CAPRI database a ). In northern areas, favourable weather conditions in recent months have achieved levels of production of biomass above normal (confirmed also by LINGRA f ). These conditions allowed production to be close to the maximum scenario. At the end these areas and especially in 6

7 Tuscany and Piedmont, showed biomass production values higher than the historical average.high production levels of green maize are also expected in northern areas. Daily values ITALIA - (IT) Daily and Cumulated rain Current period Average ( ) Cumulated 21-May 21-Jun 21-Jul 21-Aug 21-Sep 3-Sep Romania: Average production in central and northern regions. Sud-Est region with highest production levels. Good levels of production that had already been observed at the beginning of the season are maintained until the end of the cycle. Thus, in southern regions, and particularly in Sud-Est region, total biomass production was higher than historical values measured by remote sensing (period ). Temperatures recorded were close to seasonal values throughout the cycle. However, cumulative rainfall recorded before and after May, and especially during the months of June and July, generated high levels of soil water content in all regions (simulated with LINGRA model f ). Radiation levels were near average values during all the season. This situation allowed the maintaining of good growth levels during the last period (June-September). All regions were able to maintain production levels close to the total average values, with some higher production values in some localized areas in the Centru and Nord-Vest regions. Only a few localized areas in the north-east of the Sud-Est region show deficit biomass production values. Kg/ha Romania (RO) Potential Total Biomass of Forage permanent +2St_dev Average ( ) -2St_dev JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV Poland, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania: Favourable summer conditions assured average biomass production. The total biomass production levels in all these countries are average. Only a few localized areas in central and southwestern Poland and east of the Baltic countries show values above historical average values measured by remote sensing (period ). The temperatures of the last few months have been slightly above seasonal values generating a very significant acceleration of development in the Baltic States and eastern Poland. In addition, cumulated rainfall recorded values were very high in all regions after May maintaining high soil water content f throughout the spring and the summer. This situation combined with the warm temperatures and seasonal levels of radiation have significantly increased the growth of biomass. Moreover, these favourable conditions have ensured quite early in the season a production level close to the average historical values (the minimum scenario showed averages production levels since late July). These good conditions have also positively affected green maize production, and main production areas in 7

8 Poland (Wielkopolskie, Mazowieckie, Podlaskie) present biomass production levels near or above potential average values. Finally, heavy rainfall recorded in spring did not seem affecting final global biomass production. Finland and Sweden: After an early summer rather dry and hot, over-wet conditions allowed maintaining average potential biomass production levels. The potential biomass production f values were close to average in both countries. Even if low temperatures early in the cycle had delayed the start of the growing season, temperatures close to normal and slightly warmer during the period 2 June to 25 July, allowed to catch and surpass the delay towards the end season, particularly in Finland. Water availability was close to seasonal values during the spring. However, a rather dry period coinciding with high temperatures significantly affected the biomass production of temporary grassland f in this period. However after this moment, significant rainfall events combined with temperatures around seasonal values, have helped to maintain production levels close to historical average values. Controlling production using remote sensing information (based in the CAPRI database a ) remains quite difficult in these countries, particularly due to the dispersion of the temporary grassland areas and frequent cloud coverage. Austria, Czech Republic, Slovakia: Favourable summer climatic conditions allowed reaching good production levels. The total biomass production in these three countries is near or above historical average values measured by remote sensing (period ). Development of grasslands has been little advanced in Austria, due to a warm spring and summer. However, it stayed close to the seasonal values in the Czech Republic and Slovakia. The exceptional amounts of rain accumulated during the spring and summer in all regions maintained relatively high soil water contents f during all the cycle. This situation allowed high levels of biomass production even during the hottest periods. Thus, production of green maize was also helped by the favourable weather conditions and production levels are near or above the average 8

9 in all regions. Finally, heavy rainfall recorded during the second half of May generated local floods in areas around the Danube River did not finally affected biomass production values. % Österreich (AT) Relative Soil Moisture of Forage permanent +2St_dev Average ( ) -2St_dev JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV Methodological Note: Campaign analysis at country level is done only in the countries where some of their areas at NUTS2 level are represented in the 8% of the total surface used for grasslands and forage plants in the EU. Data from the Table Eurostat code ef_lu_ovcropaa, (27) were used. a To monitor pasture and forage production SPOT-VGT remote sensed derived products are used. References for the analysis are the cumulated values of NDVI (Normalized Differences Vegetation Index) from October to September of the current season and their comparison with the long-term average (LTA). The mask used to highlight the pastures regions was obtained using CAPRI database. Cumulated NDVI evolution scenarios methodology was adapted from the methodology used by Instituto de Clima y Agua-Castelar Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria (Argentina). b Table Eurostat code ef_lu_ovcropaa, variable F, 27 c Table Eurostat code ef_lu_ovcropaa, variable D18, 27 d Table Eurostat code ef_lu_ovcropaa, variable D18A, 27 e Table Eurostat code ef_lu_ovcropaa, variable D18B1, 27 f Potential biomass, soil water content and development are calculated using the CGMS-LINGRA model. Contacts: inaki.garcia@jrc.ec.europa.eu, bettina.baruth@jrc.ec.europa.eu Editorial Staff: I.Garcia de Cortazar-Atauri, B. Baruth, I. Cerrani, L. Seguini; MARS Unit Agri4cast / JRC Data production: MARS unit Agri4cast/JRC and ALTERRA (NL), Meteoconsult (NL), VITO (BE) JRC IPSC-MARS Unit-AGRI4CAST Action I-2127 Ispra (VA) - Fax agri4cast@jrc.ec.europa.eu European Union 21 JRC Ispra Disclaimer: The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation and are only intended to be indicative. Neither the Commission nor any person acting on behalf of the commission is responsible for the use, which might be made of the following information 9 Catalog Number LB-AA-1-12-EN-C