本期导读 近 10 年湖泊科学国际发展态势研究 近 10 年湖泊科学领域发表的高被引文章 2016 年 SI ( 总第 12 期 ) [ 特刊 ] 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所 湖泊与环境国家重点实验室, 图书馆 联合编制

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1 本期导读 近 10 年湖泊科学国际发展态势研究 近 10 年湖泊科学领域发表的高被引文章 2016 年 SI ( 总第 12 期 ) [ 特刊 ] 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所 湖泊与环境国家重点实验室, 图书馆 联合编制

2 近 10 年湖泊科学研究国际发展态势研究... 1 (1) 国际主要湖泊研究机构选择... 1 (2) 各研究机构影响力分析... 2 (3) 国际合作研究分析... 4 (4) 研究队伍分析... 5 (5) 湖泊科学研究主题与趋势分析... 6 (6) 主要结论与建议 近 10 年湖泊科学领域发表的高被引 (High Cited Paper) 文章... 11

3 近 10 年湖泊科学国际发展态势研究 背景简介 湖泊与环境国家重点实验室 2007 年由国家科技部正式批准成立, 依托中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所 实验室的总体发展目标是建设跻身国际先进行列 体现国家水平的湖泊与环境实验测试与野外研究和监测平台, 建设一支国内一流 在国际相关学科领域具有竞争实力的湖泊与环境研究专门人才队伍, 提高湖泊与环境领域原创性研究成果的水平 面向国家 十三五 规划及中国科学院 率先行动计划 需求, 湖泊与环境国家重点实验室如何在本领域研究中实现重点突破及跨越发展, 直至最后的引领发展阶段, 将是一条漫长而艰辛的路程 根据中国科学院新时期办院方针, 切实做好科研发展规划及战略决策, 是实验室目前亟待解决的问题 宏观层面的战略规划, 就是为了解答以下 4 个疑问 :Who we are? What we do? Where we are? Where we are headed? 并为实验室中长期发展提供科学依据和指南 为此, 实验室委托中国科学院武汉文献情报中心利用情报学研究理论方法与工具开展相关研究, 揭示湖泊科学研究领域现状和发展态势 采用美国 ISI 公司 Web of Science 平台提供的最新科研论文数据, 基于科学文献计量学 TDA CiteSpace 等情报学分析方法和工具, 对实验室科研竞争力及近 10 年来的湖泊科学发展态势开展分析和研究, 根据研究结果提出相关建议, 力图更好地为实验室及整个研究所提供学科战略规划情报服务支撑 (1) 国际主要湖泊研究机构选择 根据课题组的文献调研结果, 同时结合领域专家咨询意见, 确定选择奥地利因斯布鲁克 (Innsbruck) 大学湖泊研究所 北美五大湖环境研究实验室 北美大湖科学中心 美国威斯康星 (Wisconsin) 大学湖泊中心 俄罗斯科学院湖泊研究所 俄罗斯科学院西伯利亚分院湖泊研究所及日本琵琶湖环境研究所等 ( 表 1) 作为 湖泊与环境国家重点实验室 的对比研究机构 从文献计量的角度分析各机构科研影响力状况, 以及湖泊科学领域近年来的发展态势 1

4 表 1 国际主要湖泊研究机构概况 湖泊科学动态 (SI) 机构名称湖泊与环境国家重点实验室 奥地利湖泊研究所 北美五大湖环境研究实验室 北美大湖科学中心 美国威斯康星大学湖泊中心 俄罗斯科学院湖泊研究所 俄罗斯科学院西伯利亚分院湖泊研究所 日本琵琶湖环境研究所 主要研究特色主要开展中国不同区域典型湖泊 长江中下游大型浅水湖泊演变研究主要从事高山湖泊研究, 以湖泊水生生物为研究主体主要在美 / 加五大湖区开展寒温带湖泊物理过程研究从事五大湖区水生生物资源的科学管理研究, 保持与管理机构的工作关系主要负责计划 指导并推动内陆淡水水体研究主要从事湖泊学领域的理论和应用研究综合研究关于西伯利亚的贝加尔湖和其他水生生态系统主要针对琵琶湖 - 日本中部水源, 开展以湖泊管理为特色的应用研究 (2) 各研究机构影响力分析 以汤森路透的科学引文索引数据库 web of science 为数据源, 检索统计 年收录的各研究机构发表的湖泊科学相关文献进行分析 论文产出能力 : 从发文数量上看 ( 图 1), 湖泊与环境国家重点实验室占据显著优势, 俄罗斯科学院西伯利亚分院湖泊研究所位居第二, 美国 3 个湖泊研究机构及奥地利湖泊研究所次之 ; 从发文速率变化上看 ( 图 2), 我室论文数量年增长速度最快, 日本琵琶湖环境研究所与俄罗斯科学院湖泊研究所由于论文产出基数较小年度变化大幅波动, 其他机构论文数量年度变幅保持平稳状态 图 1 8 个机构 年 SCI 论文数量 2

5 图 2 8 个机构 年 SCI 发文速率论文被引用情况 : 篇均被引频次在一定程度上可反映论文影响力 如图 3 所示, 威斯康辛大学湖泊中心最高, 奥地利科学院湖泊研究所 北美五大湖环境研究实验室及北美大湖科学中心次之 我室被引频次略高于俄罗斯两个研究所和日本琵琶湖环境研究所 可见, 相比欧美国家的湖泊研究机构我室的科研产出影响力尚有差距, 仍有较大的提升空间 图 3 8 个机构 SCI 论文篇均被引频次论文学科分布及影响力 : 选取 8 个湖泊研究机构都较为关注的 10 个学科分类, 分别统计计算了各机构在这 10 个学科所发表论文的数量以及论文被引用情况 然后再与各学科论文全球平均的被引用情况进行比较 采用 CPP 与 FCSm 1 的比值衡量某机构论文在特定学科领域的影响力大小 由图 4 可见, 威斯康辛大学湖泊研究中心在 6 个学科领域的学术影响力占据绝对优势, 欧美国家的湖泊研究机构在 10 个学科领域中都具有相对较高的学术影响力 湖泊与环境国家重点实验室在水资源学领域影响较为突出, 其次是环境工程和地球科学领域, 在多数学科领域的影响力值高于俄罗斯和日本, 而在湖沼学 渔业 自然地理学等领域的影响力较低 1 P 代表某机构在指定学科领域的发文数量,C 表示其被引用的次数,CPP 代表篇均被引频次,FCSm 代表指定学科领域全部论 文的平均被引频次 3

6 (3) 国际合作研究分析 图 4 各机构影响力指数 (CPP/FCSm) 值 由图 5 可见, 湖泊与环境国家重点实验室在国际合作论文数量上位列第一, 而合作论文占总数比例最高的为奥地利科学院湖泊研究所 ( 达 73.31%), 其次为俄罗斯科学院湖泊研究所和威斯康辛大学湖泊研究中心, 我室位列第四 在各机构间的合作研究方面, 湖泊与环境国家重点实验室与奥地利湖泊研究所合作论文数为 8 篇, 与威斯康辛大学湖泊研究中心合作论文仅 1 篇, 与其他机构暂无合作 因此, 开展与国际知名湖泊研究机构合作研究的 深度 和 广度 有待进一步加强 图 5 各湖泊研究机构国际合作论文情况分析 4

7 (4) 研究队伍分析 湖泊科学动态 (SI) 研究团队活跃度 : 通过 SCIE 数据库检索 年各机构发表的湖泊科学研究主题论文, 分析研究团队的活跃程度 如图 6 所示, 通过分析各主要节点的 年轮 颜色分布, 识别出目前论文发表最活跃的 5 个团队 : 论文发表活跃度最高的为 C 区 ( 威斯康辛大学湖泊研究中心 Stephen R. Carpenter, Michael L. Pace, Jonathan J. Cole 研究团队 ); 其次为 E 区 ( 湖泊与环境国家重点实验室的 Boqiang Qin, Yunlin Zhang, Guangwei Zhu, Guang Gao 研究团队 ) 和 A 区 (Ji Shen, Enlou Zhang, Xiangdong Yang 团队 ; B 区和 D 区活跃程度较高, 分别为 ( 北美大湖科学中心 Charles P. Mdenjian, Steven A. Pothoven, Henry A. Vanderploeg 研究团队 ) 和 (Fanxiang Kong,Min Zhang 研究团队 ); 个人活跃度较高的, 如 M. Jake Vander Zanden, John P. Smol, Steven W. Effler, Martin W. Hahn, Emily H. Stanley 等, 分析结果图显示无特别明显的团队合作形式 图 6 国内外湖泊科学研究领域主要研究团队活力湖泊科学领域海外华人青年学者 : 通过 SCIE 数据库主题检索, 从文献计量分析的角度筛选出部分湖泊科学研究领域的海外华人青年学者 ( 表 2), 作为实验室进一步拓展国际间合作研究 制定人才引进战略的参考 5

8 表 2 基于文献检索的活跃华人青年学者 ( 湖泊科学相关领域 ) 编号姓名机构主要研究领域 1 Chuliang Xiao 2 Feng Peng 3 Hongyan Zhang 4 Bai, Xuezhi 5 Jin, Meibing 6 Xuefeng Chu 7 Dingbao Wang 8 Yuan Li NOAA, Great Lakes Environm Res Lab, Ann Arbor, 利用大气 - 湖泊耦合模型研究五大湖, 以及全球变化的 MI USA 区域响应 Upstate Freshwater Institute, P.O. Box 506, Syracuse, NY 13214, USA 主要从事粒子分析和光散射方面研究 Univ Michigan, Cooperat Inst Limnol & Ecosyst Res, Ann Arbor, USA 水生生物与环境, 水质模型, 食物网与生态系统等 University of Michigan Cooperative Institute For 海洋模型, 海洋物理学, 洋流与循环, 气候模型, 季 Limnology And Ecosystems Research (CILER) 风, 表面水等 Univ Alaska Fairbanks, Int Arct Res Ctr, Fairbanks, 气候变化, 海洋学, 数字模型, 洋流与循环, 海洋生 AK USA 物化学, 等 Associate Professor Department of Civil and 流域水文和环境模型, 非点源污染与环境评估, 地下 Environmental Engineering North Dakota State University 水模型与管理, 水文和环境模型软件开发 University of Central Florida, Department of Civil, 水资源工程, 水文模型, 土木工程, 蒸散发, 河流, Orlando, United States 地下水, 水质评估, 气候变化 Monash University: Clayton, VIC, Australia 水文模型与预测, 地表过程建模, 不确定性分析与数 Research Fellow 据同化, 遥感及其应用 9 Ji, Rubao Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution 10 Song S. Qian 生物物理数值模拟耦合, 近岸海域食物网动力学, 浮 游生物气候学与生物地理, 浮游动物种群动态, 北极 海洋学与生物量, 复合种群连通性 University of Toledo, Department of 环境与生态统计学, 贝叶斯层级模型, 水质和流域模 Environmental Sciences 型, 溪流生态系统扰动反应等 11 Quanlin Zhou Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory 12 Haoguo Hu 水文地质学, 数值模拟, 温室气体, 碳封存, 数值模 型, 二氧化碳 University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States 数值模型, 海洋, 冰, 生态系统动力学 13 Wang, Hui-Yu National Taiwan University, Taipei 14 Zhou, Yuntao Carnegie Institute 湖泊, 鱼类, 海洋生物学, 生态学, 渔业管理, 鱼类学地统计学, 环境工程, 水文学, 大型水体缺氧的时空分异性评估, 营养负荷及气象条件对水质影响评估 15 Xia, Meng 16 Ye Zhang University of Maryland Eastern Shore, Carver Hall, 河流冲淡水与河口动态, 生态学 生物化学与幼虫输 Dept. of Natural Sciences, Princess Anne, MD, 移过程,TMDL 建模, 近岸潮流动力学与沉积物输移 过程, 河流流域模型 Univ Wyoming, Dept Geol & Geophys, Laramie, WY USA 地质建模与模拟, 水文地质学 17 Yong Zhang Univ Alabama, Dept Geol Sci, Tuscaloosa, AL USA 多空与裂隙介质中流量输移建模, 地下水资源评估与 管理, 河流推移质与悬浮物输移, 运用环境示踪法对 地下水进行测龄, 表面径流动力学与水分入渗 18 ke Zhang James Cook University 人类 - 自然耦合系统, 生态系统服务, 古生态学, 系统 生物学, 古气候学 (5) 湖泊科学研究主题与趋势分析 湖泊科学研究论文所属学科领域 : 湖泊科学主要围绕水生生物 水环境与生态及水资源利用等学科领域开展研究 ( 表 3), 而具体研究内容 技术手段 方法等, 则渗透到众多领域, 是一门多学科交叉形成的综合性学科 6

9 表 3 湖泊科学 SCI 发文在各学科领域占比 排序 学科类别 论文数占比论文数占比排序学科类别 ( 篇 ) (%) ( 篇 ) (%) 1 海洋与淡水生物学 % 11 生物化学与分子生物学 % 2 环境科学与生态学 % 12 化学 % 3 水资源科学 % 13 生物技术和应用微生物学 % 4 海洋科学 % 14 生命科学与生物医学 % 5 工程学 % 15 动物学 % 6 鱼类学 % 16 植物科学 % 7 地质学 % 17 毒理学 % 8 微生物学 % 18 基因和遗传学 % 9 自然地理学 % 19 生物多样性与保护 % 10 气象学和大气科学 % 20 地球化学与物理 % 基于关键词的湖泊科学研究主题分析 : 提取近 10 年全部湖泊科学相关论文的关键词约 个, 按照其出现频次进行排序及归纳分析 ( 表 4) 表 4 基于关键词的湖泊科学主题分析 排序 频次 关键词 排序 频次 关键词 排序 频次 关键词 水 群落 湖泊 模型 浮游动物 美国 动力学 管理 群落结构 生长 多样性 生物多样性 浮游植物 碳 系统 变异性 五大湖 种群 流量 湖泊水体 植被 河流 生态系统 流域 输移 有机物 海 气候变化 聚合物 系统 温度 水质 群落 结构 生态学 溪流 氮 气候 土地利用 磷 多孔渗水介质 模拟 鱼 丰度 降水 淡水 富营养化 模型 沉积物 海洋 可见, 近 10 年来湖泊科学研究的重点体现在以下几个方面 : 各种模型和模拟手段被广泛应用于研究过程中, 湖泊学研究出现定量化和精准化方向发 展的趋势 ; 7

10 水生生物及其群落变异性 生物多样性研究 ; 湖泊科学动态 (SI) 水体氮 磷 有机物含量及水质状况 ; 湖泊降水 流量 温度 结构, 等水文学特征研究 ; 湖泊沉积与气候变化 ; 湖泊管理 ( 湖泊 - 流域管理 环境管理 渔业管理 水质管理等 ) 也是湖泊科学研究的 重要内容 ; 湖泊 - 流域生态系统研究 ; 水产养殖 鱼类繁殖以及鱼类捕食 栖息地等 基于湖泊科学期刊的研究主题分析 : 提取湖泊科学主流刊物近 10 年刊载的论文出现频 次最高的前 50 个关键词 ( 表 5), 可见近 10 年湖泊科学研究领域关注和报道的重点主要 包括 : 湖泊沉积学 古湖沼学 气候变化的相关研究 ; 水体富营养化研究, 包括氮 磷营养物含量, 藻类等浮游植物状态, 以及水体水质污染 状况和治理等 ; 水生生物 ( 浮游植物 浮游动物 水生植物 大型无脊椎动物 鱼类等 ) 学, 外来物种 入侵, 生物多样性, 食物网等 ; 湖泊水文学, 湖泊 - 流域层面的地下水 湿地 土壤 土地利用研究等 表 5 提取的湖泊科学期刊出现频次前 50 关键词列表 排序 关键词 频次 排序 关键词 频次 排序 关键词 频次 1 沉积 氮 水文模型 气候变化 湿地 沉淀 稳定同位素 生物多样性 食物网 富营养化 蓝藻 土地利用 磷 水文 含盐量 硅藻 模型 捕食 浮游植物 溪流 土壤湿度 五大湖 沉淀 花粉 浮游动物 古湖泊 蒸散 水质 鱼 附生 营养成分 多样性 古生态学 外来物种入侵 干旱 扩散 大型无脊椎动物 古气候 碳同位素 温度 河流 埋藏学 地下水 浅水湖泊 径流 水生植物 洪水 水框架指令 全新世 遥感 120 8

11 各国湖泊科学论文主题分析 : 通过分析湖泊科学研究发文量前 5 的国家高频关键词可 以看出 ( 表 6): 北美五大湖是美国 加拿大两国重要的研究对象, 中国的湖泊研究目前比较多集中在太 湖, 澳大利亚和德国的研究对象则侧重于地下水 ; 湖泊沉积 气候变化以及湖泊水体富营养化研究是所有国家都非常关注的热点 ; 除中国之外, 其他 4 个国家都比较重视鱼类及相关研究 表 6 湖泊科学发文排名前 5 的国家重点关注的主题 美国 中国 加拿大 澳大利亚 德国 北美五大湖 [541] 湖泊沉积物 [259] 北美五大湖 [207] 鱼类 [114] 湖泊沉积物 [107] 鱼类 [311] 太湖 [144] 鱼类 [113] 湖泊沉积物 [58] 鱼类 [63] 磷 [282] 藻类大量繁殖 [122] 湖泊沉积物 [109] 气候变化 [48] 硅藻 [40] 湖泊沉积物 [278] 磷 [109] 磷 [101] 地下水 [38] 磷 [35] 污水及处理 [192] 富营养化 103] 气候变化 [75] 硅藻 [28] 地下水 [33] 近五年出现的新主题及高频关键词 : 近 5 年新出现的高频关键词, 一定程度上可以反 映出湖泊科学研究当前的热点及趋势 ( 表 7): 研究对象及范围进一步扩展 ( 由湖泊水体及底泥沉积物, 扩展到湖泊 - 流域层面的土壤 地下水等 ; 鄱阳湖 博斯腾湖 中国海域等高频词出现 ); 更多关注数学模型及新技术方法在湖泊科学研究中的应用, 定量化分析研究成为热门 ( 如逆向建模 陆面模式 统计模型 降雨径流模型 区域气候模式 水文模型等 ); 渔业相关研究 ( 鲋 鳙鱼 肫鲥鱼 白鲑 大菱鲆 梭鱼以及鱼类产卵栖息地等 ) 逐步被 纳入湖泊科学研究范畴 表 7 近五年出现的新主题及高频关键词 排序 关键词 排序 关键词 排序 关键词 排序 关键词 排序 关键词 1 鄱阳湖 11 集合卡尔曼滤波 21 宏基因组学 31 肫鲥鱼 41 不确定性量化 2 多孔介质 12 贝叶斯推理 22 二氧化碳封存 32 白鲑 42 新兴污染物 3 溶质运移 13 解析解 23 断裂 33 水文地理学 43 多目标优化 4 焦磷酸测序 14 优先流 24 人口密度 34 土壤含水量 44 氟化物 5 水力传导 15 GRACE 25 鳙鱼 35 潜流交换 45 菌落 6 径流 16 鲋 26 反应运移 36 时空变化 46 孔隙网络 7 连接物 17 二相流 27 年际变化 37 统计分析 47 地球物理 8 季节变化 18 能量平衡 28 非平稳 38 统计模型 48 降雨径流模型 9 逆向建模 19 污染物运移 29 菹草 39 博斯腾湖 49 区域气候模式 10 毛细管压力 20 陆面模式 30 QPCR 40 萼花臂尾轮虫 50 情景分析 9

12 (6) 主要结论与建议 结论 湖泊科学动态 (SI) 1 与 8 个国际著名湖泊研究机构论文产出的对比研究表明, 由于各国研究机构的发展历史及整体学科布局等差异, 各机构的发展目标和定位 科研项目布局, 规模体量等都具有各自不同的特点 : 论文产出方面, 表现为欧美研究机构 ( 尤其是美国威斯康辛大学湖泊研究中心 ) 的发文量及论文影响力优势突出, 高于我室以及俄罗斯两个湖泊研究机构和日本琵琶湖研究所 ; 学科发展方面, 欧美国家的湖泊研究机构在 10 个学科领域中都具有较高学术影响力, 我室在水资源学领域影响较为突出, 其次是环境工程和地球科学领域, 在多数学科领域的影响力值高于俄罗斯和日本, 而在湖沼学 渔业等领域的影响力较弱 ; 研究团队产出活力方面,Carpenter 团队具有最高活力, 我室的多个研究团队 (BQ Qin, J Shen, FX Kong) 活力突出, 其他多为表现为个人产出活跃 2 近 10 年来湖泊科学研究主题集中在湖泊沉积学 古湖沼学 气候变化 富营养化 水生生物 湖泊水文学 湖泊生态系统 湖泊 - 流域管理等方面, 不同的国家有不同的关注焦点 尤其是近 5 年的国际上更为注重湖泊 - 流域层面的研究, 以及各种量化模型 工具技术在研究中的应用 3 我室国际合作论文所占总数比例低于欧美研究机构, 且与其他国际湖泊研究机构间的合作研究产出较少, 开展合作的领域相对局限, 与国际知名湖泊研究机构合作研究的 深度 和 广度 仍有待进一步加强 建议 1 进一步加强湖泊沉积 古湖沼 气候变化 湖泊水资源 水生生物等当前国际湖泊科学热点问题的研究 ; 2 重点关注水体富营养化 湖泊水质 饮用水安全 生物多样性 内陆淡水水体 模型与模拟 湖泊管理 湖泊 - 流域生态系统等研究领域 ; 3 适当拓展学科领域 湖泊研究向淡水生态系统研究层面拓展 ; 4 它山之石可以攻玉 有目的有步骤地加强与国际著名湖泊研究机构间的合作研究 10

13 年湖泊科学领域发表的高被引 (High Cited Paper) 文 2 章 Environmental factors influencing phytoplankton communities in Lake Diefenbaker, Saskatchewan, Canada Abirhire, O., et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research. 2015, 41: Lake Diefenbaker (LD) is a large reservoir located in the Canadian Prairies. Approximately 98% of the inflow is from the South Saskatchewan River (SSR). The composition and ecology of the phytoplankton community along the length of LD has not been reported since the 1980s. This is a potential problem for a reservoir that serves as an important source of water for indirect domestic consumption, irrigation, and recreation. Therefore, we examined epilimnetic whole water samples along the length of LD during the open-water season (June to October) in 2011 and We estimated the trophic status from chlorophyll a (TSIchl a) and examined the phytoplankton community in relation to environmental factors. We observed high flow events that carried large nutrient loads and associated turbidity into LD from the SSR. Despite the high flow events, mean TSIchi (a) placed LD as a mesotrophic system with a highly diverse phytoplankton community (72 genera). The increased nutrient and non-algal turbidity associated with high flow events may be related to the dominance of the cryptophytes and the bacillariophytes (both constituted similar to 89% of the total phytoplankton biomass). Inflow and water temperature explained 41% of the variation in cryptophyte biomass, whereas mixing depth and particulate nitrogen to particulate phosphorus molar ratios explained 38% of the variation in bacillariophyte biomass. Despite the low cyanobacterial biomass (<5%), we observed some potential toxin and bloom-forming genera that may threaten the water quality of LD if conditions become favorable during low flow. Lakes as sentinels of climate change Adrian, R., et al. Limnology and Oceanography. 2009, 54(6): While there is a general sense that lakes can act as sentinels of climate change, their efficacy has not been thoroughly analyzed. We identified the key response variables within a lake that act as indicators of the effects of climate change on both the lake and the catchment. These variables reflect a wide range of physical, chemical, and biological responses to climate. However, the efficacy of the different indicators is affected by regional response to climate change, characteristics of the catchment, and lake mixing regimes. Thus, particular indicators or combinations of indicators are more effective for different lake types and geographic regions. The extraction of climate signals can be further complicated by the influence of other environmental changes, such as eutrophication or acidification, and the equivalent reverse phenomena, in addition to other land-use influences. In many cases, however, confounding factors can be addressed through analytical tools such as detrending or filtering. Lakes are effective sentinels for climate change because they are sensitive to climate, respond rapidly to change, and integrate information about changes in the catchment. 2 高被引论文 (High Cited Paper): 根据对应领域和出版年中的高引用阈值, 论文受到引用的次数已将其归入本学术领域中最 优秀的 1% 之列 共 115 篇, 文章按作者姓名排序 11

14 Climate change as a driver of change in the Great Lakes St. Lawrence River Basin Bartolai, A. M., et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research. 2015, 41: Climate change in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River basin is affecting the socio-ecological system, including the residents who depend on the basin for drinking water, energy, and commerce. Over the past 50 years, air temperatures increased and heavier precipitation events became more frequent, and those trends are projected to continue. Climate change is expected to impact energy supply and demand, governance, and changes in demographics and societal values. More extreme events may exacerbate transport of biological and chemical contaminants and invasive species, and impact lake levels and water quality. We describe historical trends of the regional climate, examine global and regional climate model projections, and explore impacts of climate change with other key drivers of change defined by the Great Lakes Futures Project Because reducing climate-related damages and economic losses is crucial; we offer three plausible future scenarios of mitigation and adaptation plans. Recommendations to reach a future Utopian scenario require immediate actions, such as improvements in energy conservation, efficiency and generation, curbs to emissions, preventative infrastructure upgrades, and investments in maintaining and monitoring a healthy ecosystem. The Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas, shows negative correlation to naturally elevated carbon dioxide levels: Implications for near-term ocean acidification effects Barton, A., et al. Limnology and Oceanography. 2012, 57(3): We report results from an oyster hatchery on the Oregon coast, where intake waters experienced variable carbonate chemistry (aragonite saturation state < 0.8 to > 3.2; ph < 7.6 to > 8.2) in the early summer of Both larval production and midstage growth (similar to 120 to similar to 150 mu m) of the oyster Crassostrea gigas were significantly negatively correlated with the aragonite saturation state of waters in which larval oysters were spawned and reared for the first 48 h of life. The effects of the initial spawning conditions did not have a significant effect on early-stage growth (growth from D-hinge stage to similar to 120 mm), suggesting a delayed effect of water chemistry on larval development. Macropores and water flow in soils revisited Beven, K. and P. Germann. Water Resources Research. 2013, 49(6): The original review of macropores and water flow in soils by Beven and Germann is now 30 years old and has become one of the most highly cited papers in hydrology. This paper attempts to review the progress in observations and theoretical reasoning about preferential soil water flows over the intervening period. It is suggested that the topic has still not received the attention that its importance deserves, in part because of the ready availability of software packages rooted firmly in the Richards domain, albeit that there is convincing evidence that this may be predicated on the wrong experimental method for natural conditions. There is still not an adequate physical theory linking all types of flow, and there are still not adequate observational techniques to support the scale dependent parameterizations that will be required at practical 12

15 field and hillslope scales of application. Some thoughts on future needs to develop a more comprehensive representation of soil water flows are offered. Response of aquatic plants to abiotic factors: a review Bornette, G. and S. Puijalon. Aquatic Sciences. 2011, 73(1): This review aims to determine how environmental characteristics of aquatic habitats rule species occurrence, life-history traits and community dynamics among aquatic plants, and if these particular adaptations and responses fit in with general predictions relating to abiotic factors and plant communities. The way key abiotic factors in aquatic habitats affect (1) plant life (recruitment, growth, and reproduction) and dispersal, and (2) the dynamics of plant communities is discussed. Many factors related to plant nutrition are rather similar in both aquatic and terrestrial habitats (e.g. light, temperature, substrate nutrient content, CO(2) availability) or differ markedly in intensity (e.g. light), variations (e.g. temperature) or in their effective importance for plant growth (e.g. nutrient content in substrate and water). Water movements (water-table fluctuations or flow velocity) have particularly drastic consequences on plants because of the density of water leading to strong mechanical strains on plant tissues, and because dewatering leads to catastrophic habitat modifications for aquatic plants devoid of cuticle and support tissues. Several abiotic factors that affect aquatic plants, such as substrate anoxia, inorganic carbon availability or temperature, may be modified by global change. This in turn may amplify competitive processes, and lead ultimately to the dominance of phytoplankton and floating species. Conserving the diversity of aquatic plants will rely on their ability to adapt to new ecological conditions or escape through migration. Consumer-resource body-size relationships in natural food webs Brose, U., et al. Ecology. 2006, 87(10): It has been suggested that differences in body size between consumer and resource species may have important implications for interaction strengths, population dynamics, and eventually food web structure, function, and evolution. Still, the general distribution of consumer-resource body-size ratios in real ecosystems, and whether they vary systematically among habitats or broad taxonomic groups, is poorly understood. Using a unique global database on consumer and resource body sizes, we show that the mean bodysize ratios of aquatic herbivorous and detritivorous consumers are several orders of magnitude larger than those of carnivorous predators. Carnivorous predator-prey body-size ratios vary across different habitats and predator and prey types (invertebrates, ectotherm, and endotherm vertebrates). Predator-prey body-size ratios are on average significantly higher (1) in freshwater habitats than in marine or terrestrial habitats, (2) for vertebrate than for invertebrate predators, and (3) for invertebrate than for ectotherm vertebrate prey. If recent studies that relate body-size ratios to interaction strengths are general, our results suggest that mean consumer-resource interaction strengths may vary systematically across different habitat categories and consumer types. 13

16 The economy as a driver of change in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River basin Campbell, M., et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research. 2015, 41: The economic capacity of the Great Lakes St. Lawrence River basin rivals the largest industrialized economies in the world today. Abundant natural resources, an efficient transportation system, binational economic integration through a complex network of supply chains, and a world-class system of higher education have all helped the region generate considerable wealth. Despite its historic success, the region's economy is undergoing a transition. The service sector continues to account for a growing proportion of regional employment and economic activity while manufacturing accounts for a declining share of the economy. As was the case historically, the region's natural endowments, especially the Great Lakes themselves, continue to be important economic engines. However, certain sectors such as agriculture, heavy industry, and trans-oceanic shipping have negatively impacted the health of the Great Lakes while other sectors such as tourism and sport fishing impact the lakes very little but are directly reliant on Great Lakes ecological integrity. To achieve a vibrant and sustainable economic future, investments must be made in: education, infrastructure, new high-growth manufacturing, and environmental restoration. Such investments will help the region to attract and retain a young, talented, and innovative workforce to be competitive in emerging global markets. These investments are also necessary to bolster the region's exports, an important component of long-term economic vitality. We used a scenario building approach to illustrate potential economic futures for the region. The scenarios can aid in planning and decision-making as Great Lakes communities and governments strive to lead the region toward a desirable economic future. Pursuing the method of multiple working hypotheses for hydrological modeling Clark, M. P., et al. Water Resources Research. 2011, 47(9): Ambiguities in the representation of environmental processes have manifested themselves in a plethora of hydrological models, differing in almost every aspect of their conceptualization and implementation. The current overabundance of models is symptomatic of an insufficient scientific understanding of environmental dynamics at the catchment scale, which can be attributed to difficulties in measuring and representing the heterogeneity encountered in natural systems. This commentary advocates using the method of multiple working hypotheses for systematic and stringent testing of model alternatives in hydrology. We discuss how the multiple-hypothesis approach provides the flexibility to formulate alternative representations (hypotheses) describing both individual processes and the overall system. When combined with incisive diagnostics to scrutinize multiple model representations against observed data, this provides hydrologists with a powerful and systematic approach for model development and improvement. Multiple-hypothesis frameworks also support a broader coverage of the model hypothesis space and hence improve the quantification of predictive uncertainty arising from system and component nonidentifiabilities. As part of discussing the advantages and limitations of multiple-hypothesis frameworks, we critically review major contemporary challenges in hydrological hypothesis-testing, including exploiting different types of data to investigate the 14

17 fidelity of alternative process representations, accounting for model structure ambiguities arising from major uncertainties in environmental data, quantifying regional differences in dominant hydrological processes, and the grander challenge of understanding the self-organization and optimality principles that may functionally explain and describe the heterogeneities evident in most environmental systems. We assess recent progress in these research directions, and how new advances are possible using multiple-hypothesis methodologies. A unified approach for process-based hydrologic modeling: 1. Modeling concept Clark, M. P., et al. Water Resources Research. 2015, 51(4): This work advances a unified approach to process-based hydrologic modeling to enable controlled and systematic evaluation of multiple model representations (hypotheses) of hydrologic processes and scaling behavior. Our approach, which we term the Structure for Unifying Multiple Modeling Alternatives (SUMMA), formulates a general set of conservation equations, providing the flexibility to experiment with different spatial representations, different flux parameterizations, different model parameter values, and different time stepping schemes. In this paper, we introduce the general approach used in SUMMA, detailing the spatial organization and model simplifications, and how different representations of multiple physical processes can be combined within a single modeling framework. We discuss how SUMMA can be used to systematically pursue the method of multiple working hypotheses in hydrology. In particular, we discuss how SUMMA can help tackle major hydrologic modeling challenges, including defining the appropriate complexity of a model, selecting among competing flux parameterizations, representing spatial variability across a hierarchy of scales, identifying potential improvements in computational efficiency and numerical accuracy as part of the numerical solver, and improving understanding of the various sources of model uncertainty. The responses of eight coral reef calcifiers to increasing partial pressure of CO2 do not exhibit a tipping point Comeau, S., et al. Limnology and Oceanography. 2013, 8(1): The objective of this study was to investigate whether a tipping point exists in the calcification responses of coral reef calcifiers to CO2. We compared the effects of six partial pressures of CO 2 (P-CO 2) from 28 Pa to 210 Pa on the net calcification of four corals (Acropora pulchra, Porites rus, Pocillopora damicornis, and Pavona cactus), and four calcified algae (Hydrolithon onkodes, Lithophyllum flavescens, Halimeda macroloba, and Halimeda minima). After 2 weeks of acclimation in a common environment, organisms were incubated in 12 aquaria for 2 weeks at the targeted P-CO 2 levels and net calcification was quantified. All eight species calcified at the highest P-CO 2 in which the calcium carbonate aragonite saturation state was similar to 1. Calcification decreased linearly as a function of increasing partial P-CO 2 in three corals and three algae. Overall, the decrease in net calcification as a function of decreasing ph was similar to 10% when ambient P-CO 2 (39 Pa) was doubled. The calcification responses of P. damicornis and H. macroloba were unaffected by increasing P-CO 2. These results are inconsistent with the notion that coral reefs will be affected by rising P-CO 2 in a response characterized by a tipping point. Instead, our findings combined among taxa suggest a gradual decline in 15

18 calcification will occur, but this general response includes specific cases of complete resistance to rising P-CO 2. Together our results suggest that the overall response of coral reef communities to ocean acidification will be monotonic and inversely proportional to P-CO 2, with reef-wide responses dependent on the species composition of calcifying taxa. Biological and chemical contaminants as drivers of change in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence river basin Cornwell, E. R., et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research, 2015, 41: Many initiatives since the early 1900s have been implemented to maintain water quality within the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence River basin. Despite these substantial efforts, emerging and re-emerging biological and chemical contaminants continue to pose serious human, animal, and ecosystem health risks. With over 100 biological and chemical contaminants detected in the basin and over 600 persistent and bio-accumulative contaminants listed in international databases, the threat of these contaminants to the basin is immense. This article discusses examples of legacy and emerging contaminants and their interactions with other drivers within the basin. A historical review of these contaminants from the past 50 years (1963 to present) has been prepared, as well as a synthesis of their current state. From this information and based on local and global initiatives and reports, three future scenarios for contaminants have been described projecting to the next 50 years (present to 2063), which are categorized as Status Quo, Utopian, and Dystopian. These are meant to categorize the possible range of occurrences and help decision makers prepare for various management options and improve resilience to future changes. In addition, we have highlighted some tools that are needed to effectively detect emerging contaminants in the basin. By exploring the plausible future scenarios of contaminants in the basin, we aim to highlight the need for hi-national agreements and initiatives to be developed and extended, both in time and scope, to restore and protect the basin and encourage ecosystem health. A simple and efficient method for the solid-phase extraction of dissolved organic matter (SPE-DOM) from seawater Dittmar, T., et al. Limnology and Oceanography-Methods. 2008, 6: A simple protocol is presented for the solid-phase extraction of dissolved organic matter (SPE-DOM) from seawater using commercially prepacked cartridges. The method does not require major instrumentation and can be performed in the field. Modified styrene divinyl benzene polymer type sorbents ( Varian PPL and ENV) and sorbents of a silica structure bonded with different hydrocarbon chains ( Varian C8, C18, C18OH, and C18EWP) were considered. Except for C18OH, which heavily contaminated the samples, none of the sorbents leached significant amounts of dissolved organic carbon ( DOC) or nitrogen ( DON). Samples from the North Brazil shelf with strong mixing gradients of terrigenous and marine DOM were used to compare the various sorbents. PPL was the most efficient - on average, 62% of DOC was recovered as salt-free extracts. C18 was found to be most efficient among the silica-based sorbents, but it showed only two- thirds of the extraction efficiency of PPL. As indicated by [ H-1] NMR, C/ N, and delta C-13 analyses, PPL extracted a more representative proportion of DOM than C18. Therefore, PPL was used for comparative studies in the Gulf of Mexico and Antarctica. 16

19 From brackish marsh and river waters, 65% and 62% of total DOC, respectively, could be extracted. For purely marine DOM in Antarctica and the deep sea, the extraction efficiency was lower ( 43% on average). The efficiency of the new method to isolate marine DOM is better than or similar to highly laborious methods. A further advantage is the complete desalination of the sample. The isolation of a major DOM fraction, which is salt- free, offers many possibilities to further characterize DOM by advanced analytical techniques. Application of species distribution models in stream ecosystems: the challenges of spatial and temporal scale, environmental predictors and species occurrence data Domisch, S., et al. Fundamental and Applied Limnology. 2015, 186(1-2): Modelling and mapping habitat suitability of species in a given study area has become a popular method to assess biogeographical questions on the habitat requirements of species, and to study the effects of land use or climate change on species distributions. Beside purely academic aims, model projections are increasingly used for devising conservation and management strategies and they are an established tool in conservation planning. Species distribution models (SDMs) link geographic presence records of species with environmental conditions found at these locations, and extrapolate the occurrence probabilities of species throughout the study area. While the modelling framework is similar in the terrestrial, marine and freshwater realms, each realm comprises specific challenges for combining the spatial scale, the environmental data and the species records for building reliable models. In this paper, we focus on these key issues from a stream ecology perspective and highlight three critical challenges to be kept in mind when building SDMs in stream ecosystems: (1) the spatial configuration in terms of the hierarchical structure of catchments and dendritic stream networks; (2) obtaining relevant and spatially continuous environmental predictors along the stream network, sourcing from three interfaces (stream vs. atmosphere, catchment area, groundwater) and (3) species detectability and thus the challenge of obtaining freshwater species occurrence data along the stream network. To depict freshwater species distributions at the stream level in the best possible way, multi-scale models are recommended, which account for scale dependence, a stronger integration of various environmental data types and sources, and heterogeneous species data. While model projections have the potential to serve as reliable tools for conservation and management purposes, this is only true if these relevant factors are considered in the modelling framework. Nutrient sequestration in the Lake Winnipeg watershed Donald, D. B., et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research. 2015, 41(2): Lake Winnipeg, Manitoba, has been subjected to significant increases in nutrient loading over the last few decades, and consequently has experienced significant and widespread algal blooms. The objective of our study was to identify sources of nutrients in the Lake Winnipeg basin, and quantify their removal (sequestration) into 28 of the largest lakes and reservoirs located in the Saskatchewan, Dauphin, Red, and Winnipeg river sub-basins, thus preventing their transport downstream to Lake Winnipeg. Discharges were determined daily, and nutrient parameter concentrations determined once or twice each month upstream and downstream 17

20 from each of the lakes and reservoirs for three years. Concentrations of P and N in source waters of the Lake Winnipeg basin varied substantially, with the lowest concentrations occurring in pristine headwaters of the Saskatchewan River (mean TP = 14 mu g/l; mean TN = 217 mu g/l) and some of the highest concentrations occurring in small streams that originated within agricultural landscapes in the headwaters of the Dauphin River sub-basin (mean TP = 133 mu g/l; mean TN = 1313 mu g/l). Twelve reservoirs in the Saskatchewan River sub-basin collectively sequestered 92% of the TP inputs and 68% of the TN inputs to the sub-basin. In P-rich lakes, relatively more N was sequestered than P compared with nutrient impoverished lakes. A total 13,215 t/yr TP was discharged into Lake Winnipeg while 8234 t TP/yr, was sequestered into the lakes and reservoirs. The Red River sub-basin was the principal source of nutrients to Lake Winnipeg and should be the focus of nutrient management in the Lake Winnipeg basin. The global abundance and size distribution of lakes, ponds, and impoundments Downing, J. A., et al. Limnology and Oceanography. 2006, 51(5): One of the major impediments to the integration of lentic ecosystems into global environmental analyses has been fragmentary data on the extent and size distribution of lakes, ponds, and impoundments. We use new data sources, enhanced spatial resolution, and new analytical approaches to provide new estimates of the global abundance of surface-water bodies. A global model based on the Pareto distribution shows that the global extent of natural lakes is twice as large as previously known (304 million lakes; 4.2 million km(2) in area) and is dominated in area by millions of water bodies smaller than 1 km(2). Similar analyses of impoundments based on inventories of large, engineered dams show that impounded waters cover approximately 0.26 million km(2). However, construction of low-tech farm impoundments is estimated to be between 0.1% and 6% of farm area worldwide, dependent upon precipitation, and represents > 77,000 km(2) globally, at present. Overall, about 4.6 million km(2) of the earth's continental "land" surface (> 3%) is covered by water. These analyses underscore the importance of explicitly considering lakes, ponds, and impoundments, especially small ones, in global analyses of rates and processes. Plastic debris in the Laurentian Great Lakes: A review Driedger, A. G. J., et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research. 2015, 41(1): 9-19 Pollution by plastic debris is an increasing environmental concern in the Laurentian Great Lakes where it affects open-water, shoreline, and benthic environments. Open-water surveys reveal that in certain areas of the Great Lakes, surface water densities of plastics are as high as those reported for areas of litter accumulation within oceanic gyres. Data from volunteer beach cleanups show that typically more than 80% of anthropogenic litter along the shorelines of the Great Lakes is comprised of plastics. The distribution of plastics in bottom sediments of the Great Lakes is essentially unknown. Sources of plastic debris to the Great Lakes include microplastic beads from consumer products, pellets from the plastic manufacturing industry, and waste from beach-goers, shipping, and fishing activities. Many plastics degrade slowly in the environment and may have long-term adverse ecological and economic impacts, including the dispersal of persistent organic pollutants. Plans to combat and curtail plastic debris pollution in the Great 18

21 Lakes will come at a significant economic cost, likely in excess of $400 million annually. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on plastic pollution in the Great Lakes, identify knowledge gaps, and suggest future research directions. Two-Decade Reconstruction of Algal Blooms in China's Lake Taihu Duan, H. T., et al. Environmental Science & Technology. 2009, 43(10): The algal blooming in the inland lakes has become a critically important issue for its impacts not only on local natural and social environments, but also on global human community. However, the occurrences of blooming on larger spatial scale and longer time scale have rarely been studied. As the third largest freshwater lake in China, Lake Taihu has drawn increasing attention from both public and scientific communities concerning its degradation. Using available satellite images, we reconstructed the spatial and temporal patterns of algal blooms in Lake Taihu through the past two decades. The blooming characteristics over the past two decades were examined with the dynamic of initial blooming date being highlighted. The initial blooming dates were gradually becoming later and later from 1987 to Since 1998, however, the initial blooming date came earlier and earlier year by year, with approximately days advancement per year. From 1987 to 2007, the annual duration of algal blooms lengthened year by year, in line with the substantial increases in the occurrences of algal blooms in spring and summer months. The algal blooms usually occur in northern bays and spread to center and south parts of Lake Taihu. The increases in previous winter's mean daily minimum temperature partially contributed to the earlier blooming onset. However, human activities, expressed as total gross domestic product (GDP) and population, outweighed the climatic contribution on the initial blooming date and blooming duration. This study may provide insights for the policy makers who try to curb the algal blooming and improve the water quality of inland freshwater lakes. Light and nutrient co-limitation of phytoplankton communities in a large reservoir: Lake Diefenbaker, Saskatchewan, Canada Dubourg, P., et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research. 2015, 41: The reliance on reservoirs to meet global water demands is increasing, as is the need to develop an understanding of factors influencing water quality in these understudied water bodies. This study assessed how the interaction between light and nutrients influences phytoplanlcton dynamics in a large, heterogeneous prairie reservoir; Lake Diefenbaker, Saskatchewan. A multiple indicator assessment of factors (light, phosphorus [P], and nitrogen [N]) influencing phytoplanlcton biomass, physiology, and gross primary productivity (GPP) was conducted. Light deficiency was assessed through the application of an indicator threshold for the mean daily mixed layer irradiance as well as the ratio of this irradiance to the light saturation parameter derived from photosynthesis-irradiance curves. Short-term physiological assays and long-term compositional nutrient status indicators were applied to assess the in situ nutrient deficiency of the epilimnetic phytoplankton communities. We observed regional differences in light conditions and nutrient chemistry related to incoming flow and nutrient load from the South Saskatchewan River. Light deficiency was detected 59% of the times measured during the open-water season of Both GPP and quantum efficiency of photosystem II (phi(psii)) were relatively high (108 +/- 101 mmol O-2 m(-2) day(-1) and /- 0.07, respectively) across all regions and months. During 19

22 conditions of light sufficiency, there was no evidence of N deficiency, and P was the limiting nutrient to phytoplankton communities 90% of the times measured. Nutrient use efficiency and GPP rates were significantly higher under light sufficient conditions. The asynchrony of light and nutrient supply influences production and biomass accrual in this reservoir. Recent changes in primary production and phytoplankton in the offshore region of southeastern Lake Michigan Fahnenstiel, G., et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research. 2010, 36: Phytoplankton abundance, composition, and productivity were monitored on a bi-weekly basis from March/April through November/December at two offshore stations in southeastern Lake Michigan in , and (exception which were sampled from May to August). During the spring isothermal mixing period, surface-mixed layer (SML) chlorophyll a and phytoplankton biomass (carbon) and water column primary productivity decreased substantially in as compared to (66%, 87%, and 70% decrease, respectively). Smaller or no decreases were noted between and (chlorophyll a 23% decrease, phytoplankton biomass 5% increase, and production 22% decrease). Phytoplankton composition also changed during the spring isothermal mixing period in as compared to and : all phytoplankton groups with the exception of cyanobacteria and chlorophytes exhibited dramatic reductions in The pronounced changes in phytoplankton properties during spring mixing in were attributed to the filtering activities of the quagga mussel (Dreissena rostriformis bugensis). During mid- and late thermal stratification periods, SML phytoplankton chlorophyll a and phytoplankton carbon and water column primary production exhibited only one significant change across all decades (mid-stratification production in as compared to and ). Phytoplankton compositional changes in the SML also were limited during thermal stratification. The size of the deep chlorophyll layer (DCL) in was similar to or smaller than those in and However, phytoplankton composition in the DCL changed as net diatoms constituted <5% of total phytoplankton in the DCL but over 50% in and Fluorescence spectroscopy opens new windows into dissolved organic matter dynamics in freshwater ecosystems: A review Fellman, J. B., et al. Limnology and Oceanography. 2010, 55(6): The biochemical composition of dissolved organic matter (DOM) strongly influences its biogeochemical role in freshwater ecosystems, yet DOM composition measurements are not routinely incorporated into ecological studies. To date, the majority of studies of freshwater ecosystems have relied on bulk analyses of dissolved organic carbon and nitrogen to obtain information about DOM cycling. The problem with this approach is that the biogeochemical significance of DOM can only partially be elucidated using bulk analyses alone because bulk measures cannot detect most carbon and nitrogen transformations. Advances in fluorescence spectroscopy provide an alternative to traditional approaches for characterizing aquatic DOM, and allow for the rapid and precise characterization of DOM necessary to more comprehensively trace DOM dynamics. It is within this context that we discuss the use of fluorescence 20

23 spectroscopy to provide a novel approach to tackling a long-standing problem: understanding the dynamics and biogeochemical role of DOM. We highlight the utility of fluorescence characterization of DOM and provide examples of the potential range of applications for incorporating DOM fluorescence into ecological studies in the hope that this rapidly evolving technique will further our understanding of the biogeochemical role of DOM in freshwater ecosystems. Development of a global inundation map at high spatial resolution from topographic downscaling of coarse-scale remote sensing data Fluet-Chouinard, E., et al. Remote Sensing of Environment. 2015, 158: Large-scale estimates of the area of terrestrial surface waters have greatly improved over time, in particular through the development of multi-satellite methodologies, but the generally coarse spatial resolution (tens of kms) of global observations is still inadequate for many ecological applications. The goal of this study is to introduce a new, globally applicable downscaling method and to demonstrate its applicability to derive fine resolution results from coarse global inundation estimates. The downscaling procedure predicts the location of surface water cover with an inundation probability map that was generated by bagged derision trees using globally available topographic and hydrographic information from the SRTM-derived HydroSHEDS database and trained on the wetland extent of the GLC2000 global land cover map. We applied the downscaling technique to the Global Inundation Extent from Multi-Satellites (GIEMS) dataset to produce a new high-resolution inundation map at a pixel size of 15 arc-seconds, termed GIEMS-D15. GIEMS-D15 represents three states of land surface inundation extents: mean annual minimum (total area, 6.5 x 10(6) km(2)), mean annual maximum (12.1 x 10(6) km(2)), and long-term maximum (173 x 10(6) km(2)); the latter depicts the largest surface water area of any global map to date. While the accuracy of GIEMS-D15 reflects distribution errors introduced by the downscaling process as well as errors from the original satellite estimates, overall accuracy is good yet spatially variable. A comparison against regional wetland cover maps generated by independent observations shows that the results adequately represent large floodplains and wetlands. GIEMS-D15 offers a higher resolution delineation of inundated areas than previously available for the assessment of global freshwater resources and the study of large floodplain and wetland ecosystems. The technique of applying inundation probabilities also allows for coupling with coarse-scale hydro-climatological model simulations. Resilience Thinking: Integrating Resilience, Adaptability and Transformability Folke, C., et al. Ecology and Society. 2010, 15(4): Resilience thinking addresses the dynamics and development of complex social-ecological systems (SES). Three aspects are central: resilience, adaptability and transformability. These aspects interrelate across multiple scales. Resilience in this context is the capacity of a SES to continually change and adapt yet remain within critical thresholds. Adaptability is part of resilience. It represents the capacity to adjust responses to changing external drivers and internal processes and thereby allow for development along the current trajectory (stability domain). Transformability is the capacity to cross thresholds into new development trajectories. 21

24 Transformational change at smaller scales enables resilience at larger scales. The capacity to transform at smaller scales draws on resilience from multiple scales, making use of crises as windows of opportunity for novelty and innovation, and recombining sources of experience and knowledge to navigate social-ecological transitions. Society must seriously consider ways to foster resilience of smaller more manageable SESs that contribute to Earth System resilience and to explore options for deliberate transformation of SESs that threaten Earth System resilience. The Great Lakes Futures Project: Principles and policy recommendations for making the lakes great Friedman, K. B., et al. Journal of Great Lakes Research. 2015, 41: The Great Lakes Futures Project (GLFP) created a space for dialogue among stakeholders regarding the basin's past, present, and future. The GLFP used scenario analysis to paint alternate futures and engage stakeholders in a discourse on how to move away from an undesirable future and toward a desired one. Here, we (1) synthesize the results of a process that helped stakeholders collectively understand challenges and identify barriers to more effective policy; (2) provide a set of principles as tools to help overcome these challenges and shape strategic policy formulation; and (3) recommend broad policy directions, using the principles as a guide, to move the basin toward one that thrives ecologically, socially, and economically. Ecological thresholds: The key to successful environmental management or an important concept with no practical application? Groffman, P., et al. Ecosystems. 2006, 9(1): 1-13 An ecological threshold is the point at which there is an abrupt change in an ecosystem quality, property or phenomenon, or where small changes in an environmental driver produce large responses in the ecosystem. Analysis of thresholds is complicated by nonlinear dynamics and by multiple factor controls that operate at diverse spatial and temporal scales. These complexities have challenged the use and utility of threshold concepts in environmental management despite great concern about preventing dramatic state changes in valued ecosystems, the need for determining critical pollutant loads and the ubiquity of other threshold-based environmental problems. In this paper we define the scope of the thresholds concept in ecological science and discuss methods for identifying and investigating thresholds using a variety of examples from terrestrial and aquatic environments, at ecosystem, landscape and regional scales. We end with a discussion of key research needs in this area. Effects of the Three Gorges Dam on Yangtze River flow and river interaction with Poyang Lake, China: Guo, H., et al. Journal of Hydrology. 2012, 416: The Three Gorges Dam (TGD) has been in operation since Over the operation period from , data have been collected for preliminary evaluations of actual effects of the TGD on the Yangtze River flow and river interactions with downstream lakes and tributaries. These effects are examined in this study, after the climate influence was minimized by comparing hydrological changes between years of similar climate conditions before and after the operation 22