Workshop 1 Design and planning Step one: Mapping of present and future heat and cooling demand

Transcription

1 Step one: Mapping of present and future heat and cooling demand

2 Step one: Mapping of present and future heat and cooling demand Methods for identifying the heat and cooling demand: 1. Information from the consumers 1. Availability? 2. Requies many resources to obtain 2. Estimate the heat demand based on building type 1. BBR (building register) 2. Individual heating with heat pumps on Ærø 3. Sources of information? Heat demand, building types [kwh/m2] heating and hot tap water (excluding electricity consumption) Period Single family (farm) Single family Semidetached houses Multi-storey

3 Step one: Mapping of present and future heat and cooling demand Net heat demand per m 2 [kwh/m2] Net heat demand [MWh]

4 Step one: Mapping of present and future heat and cooling demand Heat demand of Danish buildings in 2050 Area registered Type; single family, multi-storey, commercial. Period Energy label; for each type. Labelled share 3-14 % Total living and commercial area registered in BBR 2010, divided on building periods Period Single family (farm) Single family Semidetached houses Multi-storey Commercial Assumptions Hot tap water: 45 l/person/day heated 45 C. Commercial: 100 l/m 2 /year Indoor temperatures applied in the model Indoor temperatur: C. Increase of comfort temperature after renovation (19-20 C)

5 Step one: Mapping of present and future heat and cooling demand Renovation scenarios Reduction of energy for heating and hot tap water of - A: 52%, B: 65% and C: 73% Investments now (part of general renovation): - A: 68 (37) MEUR, B: 91 (51) MEUR and C: 103 (57) MEUR

6 Step one: Mapping of present and future heat and cooling demand Mean TJ/Km2

7 Step one: Mapping of present and future heat and cooling demand

8 Step one: Mapping of present and future heat and cooling demand Degree-days method: sum up all daily temperature differences between an effective indoor temperature and the daily average outdoor temperature, if the outdoor temperature is lower than a specified limit temperature (threshold value)

9 Step one: Mapping of present and future heat and cooling demand Heating technology Other Electricity Heat pump Biomass Oil Natural gas District heating

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11 Supply areas District heating Individual natural gas Expansion of district heating Optimistic (new area) Probable (new area) Optimistic (conversion gas) Probable (conversion gas)

12 DH consumer price Lower than 107 EUR/MWh EUR/MWh Higher than 133 EUR/MWh Potential for DH Costs of expansion < Biomass/heat pump < Natural gas < Oil > Oil

13 Strategic Energy Planning midtenergistrategi Competitiveness of district heating compared to individual supply Maps Maps Tool for planning Assumptions Screening based on GIS Basis for more analyses Results, in terms of the technical potential for expansion of DH 35% price lower than ind. biomass and heat pumps 26% in case of tax on biomass (sensitivity)

14 Maps as tools for planning Screening tool for municipalities and utilities Areas categorised according to price level, 3 par. Not decision tool select further analyses Based on estimated consumer prices (not on socio-economic or business case calculations) District heating price in near-by DH supply area (statistics) Costs of transmission pipeline (distance) Costs of distribution network, units etc. Dual purpose of the maps Competitiveness based on existing parameters Identify potential new areas; operational for the utilities to improve competitiveness

15 The model Heat atlas from Aalborg University Based on heat consumption model of SBI BBR (building register) Estimate of heat consumption in Danish buildings Current consumption and scenarios for future consumption Heat demand Information on building level Aggregated for geografical areas, e.g. city areas Information on; yearly heat demand, number of buildings, energy saving potential

16 The steps First step: Identify all city areas Second step: Select existing DH areas Heat prices from statistics Third step: Areas without DH Only areas with heat demand more than 200 MWh (10 standard houses) are included Calculate heat density based on area and heat demand of buildings Assumptions: 20% heat loss and 80% connection rate For each city area, calculation of costs for establising DH Sum of these four elements, divided by the total heat consumption: price per MWh: price for establishing DH Transmission network (30 years, 4%) Distribution network (30 years, 4%) Consumer installation (20 years, 4%) Heat tariffs (fixed part and variable part)

17 DH consumer price Lower than 107 EUR/MWh EUR/MWh Higher than 133 EUR/MWh Potential for DH Costs of expansion < Biomass/heat pump < Natural gas < Oil > Oil

18 Assumptions for calculations of competitiveness Workshop 1 Design and planning District heating prices Based on statistics Existing DH areas; Standard house 130 m2, heat consumption 18,1 MWh/year New DH areas; fixed and variable tariff, variable part equals the statistics Costs of transmission and distribution networks and units Price/meter in open land Costs for individual heating Heat price incl. investment and maintenance, EUR/year (EUR/MWh) Twin-pipeline series 2 up to DN 200 and single pipeline for larger dimensions Capacity calculated for pressure loss of 100 Pa/m Forward temperature 80 C and return temperature 40 C Oil: (188) Natural gas: (157) Heat pump (ground source): (142) Wood pellets: (137)

19 Investment Efficiency Heat price Lifetime Heat price incl. investment and Maintenanmaintenance Heating technology EUR % EUR/kWh Years EUR/year EUR/year District heating % 0, Oil % 0, Biooil % 0, Wood pellets % 0, Natural gas % 0, Electrical heating % 0, Heat pump, air-water % 0, Heat pump, ground source % 0,

20 Prices of transmission network Inner DN diameter [mm] Capacity [kw] EUR/m Twin pipe Single pipe

21 Distribution network Investment EUR/MWh Heat density 33 MWh/km 2 Total investment EUR/km 2 O&M EUR/km 2 /year Consumer installation Unit Pipeline Total EUR/unit EUR/unit EUR/unit

22 DKK/year Workshop 1 Design and planning Heat prices incl. VAT 2013 Lowest Average Highest Individual oil Individual natural gas

23 1000 DKK Workshop 1 Design and planning Heat prices incl. VAT for 2013 Prices for 375 plants (18,1 MWh, 130 m2 standard house Price incl. VAT Simple average Weighted average Individual oil Individual natural gas Number of plants, %

24 energypro Energy modelling software Licence for SmartReFlex participants at workshop 2 Tutorial als/the%20complete%20tutorial.html