Options/Choices/Actions on Low Carbon Energy
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- Theodore Walters
- 5 years ago
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1 Options/Choices/Actions on Low Carbon Energy Mike Colechin 2016 Energy Technologies Institute LLP The information in this document is the property of Energy Technologies Institute LLP and may not be copied or communicated to a third party, or used for any purpose other than that for which it is supplied without the express written consent of Energy Technologies Institute LLP. This 2016 information Energy is given Technologies in good faith based Institute upon the latest LLP information - Subject available to to notes Energy on Technologies page 1Institute LLP, no warranty or representation is given concerning such information, which must not be taken as establishing any contractual or other commitment binding upon Energy Technologies Institute LLP or any of its subsidiary or associated companies.
2 The UK energy challenge... Tensions are increasing...
3 The UK energy challenge... Demand is growing, assets are aging, prices are rising... irrespective of a CO2 reduction target 62m people... growing to 77m by m cars... growing to 40m by m domestic dwellings... 80% will still be in use in 2050 total dwellings 38m by 2050 Final users spent 124bn on energy in % of GDP 2.4m English households in fuel poverty... average fuel poverty gap 438 and increasing Over 90GW generation capacity... from 1MW to 3.9GW Over 200 significant power stations... average age >20 years 50% of power generation capacity.. in 30 power plants average age 30 years
4 Individual energy consumption in the UK*... Other Refrigeration IT, etc Ventilation / AC Compressed air Motors Appliances Lighting 4,250 Goods Te km (Th) 14,000 passenger km (Th) Cooking - commercial (Th) Cooking - domestic (Th) Process heating (Th) Water heating - commercial (Th) Water heating - domestic (Th) Space heating - commercial (Th) Space heating - domestic (Th) Energy kwh p.a. * 2010 UK consumption divided by 60M Notes: 1. Passenger transport figure excludes international air travel (people in the UK) 2. Data excludes heavy industry
5 GB heat and electricity demand variability (commercial & domestic ) 250 GB heat delivery system design point 200 Heat Electricity Heat / Electricity (GW) GB electricity delivery system design point 0 Jan 10 Apr 10 July 10 Oct 10 Source: UKERC (2011)
6 ESME ETI s system design tool... Energy System Modelling Environment
7 No emissions targets and -80% GHG in 2050 are very different worlds 140 No targets -80% GHG No targets -80% GHG UK electricity generation capacity GW Renewables Nuclear Gas Coal Coal Gas Renewables Hydrogen Nuclear Gas + CCS Coal + CCS
8 As long as we prepare NOW, decisions on 2050 can wait but not for long 140 No targets -80% GHG No targets -80% GHG UK electricity generation capacity GW Renewables Nuclear Gas Coal Coal Gas Renewables Hydrogen Nuclear Gas + CCS Coal + CCS
9 Prepare over next 10 years creating platform for infrastructure roll-out and growth Incremental capital investment in a low-carbon energy infrastructure 30 bn/year (Energy > 120bn p.a.) (NHS > 100bn p.a.) (MoD > 40bn p.a.) Maintain...and plan again + 35bn p.a Transport HS2 Schools Prepare + 5bn p.a. Build + 15bn p.a. By 2050 total energy system costs could be as much as 300bn p.a
10 Poor system optimisation doubles the cost of a 2050 UK low carbon energy system Additional cost of delivering -80% GHG energy system NPV bn % of 2050 GDP No TargetsPerfect low cost route Practical low cost route No building efficiency 1% of 2050 GDP No building efficiency packages No nuclear No CCS No Bio No offshore wind + 6bn pa + 30bn pa + 3bn pa in one year (2030) To meet carbon reduction targets we need to be prepared to pay at least 1% of GDP and we need to optimise the system or that rises No Nuclear No CCS No Bio No quickly Offshore Wind
11 Key decisions and cost implications Direction change between no targets and -80% CO2 polarises in mid 2020s Key electricity decisions are national policy led programmes Nuclear new build CCS plus local and individual consumer decisions on other critical areas - with major implications for distribution level infrastructure Heat delivery (gas, electricity, biomass, district heating) Transport (liquid fuels, electricity, hydrogen) Delay in launch of major build programmes beyond mid 2020s leads to cost increases of ~ 5bn p.a. as more costly alternatives are built There are logical asset replacements (technically and financially) that ensure security, sustainability and lowest system cost Efficiency improvement (transport and buildings) Offshore renewables Nuclear Gas Bioenergy feedstock's (for heat and power) CCS (fossil and biomass fuels) all no regrets choices for the next 10 years
12 What we need... Understanding of the drivers on future development Costs Supply capability and capacity (in a global market) Infrastructure decisions Investor requirements Consumer needs/desires Clear market and value opportunities for investors and consumers Supportive and stable policy Consumer support But... the future remains uncertain and we need an energy system design that allows for this Ready to make informed choices A system that creates and retains optionality Prepared for investment in a wide scale infrastructure roll-out Innovate to drive down cost (technology and business models) We need innovative incentives for industry to invest in the UK
13 ETI Invests in projects at 3 levels Knowledge Building Projects typically... up to 5m, Up to 2 years Technology Development projects typically m, 2-4 years TRL 3-5 Technology Demonstration projects Large projects delivered primarily by large companies, system integration focus typically m+, 3-5 years TRL 5-6+
14 ETI technology programme areas Key outcomes: Major Impact on Policy Development Project outputs which inform future policy / regulation / legislation, particularly around climate change and economic development. Supporting Development of Critical Supply Chain Investment in the capability that leads to commercial development of key services, systems and component technologies for use in the UK and globally. Investor & Industry Confidence System and sub-system demonstrations that deliver market confidence and encourage future investment.
15 The ETI works with:
16 ETI Insights
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