Summary of Discussions

Transcription

1 The Implications of Paris Research and Workshop Project Trondheim Workshop on Role of the Sectors Summary of Discussions The Executive Committee Team

2 The Trondheim Implications of Paris Workshop Goal: To identify the research needed to better understand the role of the sectors. Two important considerations What are the technical and technological requirements? What are the policies, measures, institutions and new business models that will be needed to achieve the nearterm and long-term goals of the Paris Agreement?

3 Electric Power Research is needed to better understand the interaction between policies and power generation Policies and measures differ from national to local scales and different localities have different policies. Research should explore interactions between technology and policy at multispatial scale and multi-time scales. How will the technology mix vary around the world? How could bioenergy get deployed at scale? Is there a business case for negative emissions in the power sector? To what extent will stranded assets be an issue that limits decarbonization? Active consumers in the power system may change the business models of some players More research is needed to describe the roles of individual technologies under varying policy and technology environments renewable power, nuclear, CO2 capture and storage (CCS; new and retrofit), natural gas (with and without CCS), biomass (with and without CCS), storage, fuel cells. Research is needed to identify business models that the private sector can employ to reach deep decarbonization goals. There is a need to address the challenges of BECCS before the private sector will be willing to engage more deeply on it.

4 Transport More research is needed to explore the uncertain future of the transport sector and map out the implications of some of the multiple pathways along which the future could unfold The transport sector is experiencing a historic transition with multiple dynamic forces acting on it. Petroleum is no longer the obvious dominant future fuel. Depending on technology, policy, and infrastructure developments electricity, biofuels, and hydrogen are all potential competitors Other forces are also playing out on the transport sector as well. For example, self-driving cars, other information technology, artificial intelligence, and drone aircraft, have the potential to change the way passengers and freight are moved, which in turn will affect energy use and the fuel mix. Research is needed to better understand the social implications of rapid changes in the transport sector (for instance by self driving cars), for employment, urban planning, land use change, and congestion etc. Viable business models need to be developed to achieve major transition Without business models that facilitate the deployment of new technologies, nothing will happen. Research needs to explore the new business models that will be required facilitate the energy transitions. What type of business model can facilitate the deployment of a negative carbon fuel in transportation sector, created by combining biofuel with CCS?

5 Business Models, Policies and Measures (1) Improve models representations of interactions between power supply and market responses to energy efficiency in the building and other sectors. We need better models of demand that drives deployment of low/no carbon energy sources. If we apply conventional consumer behavior and historical retrofit rates along with code driven practices in new builds, then we may be underestimating the reduced demand factor for electricity production (indirect) and direct energy use for buildings. We need to capture the potential for demand side improvements in passive and active technologies in models. Existing models completely underestimated the faster adoption rates of LED in the lighting market, which are having a profound impact on electricity consumption in some segments. Analysis and models need to do a better job modeling sub-national actors in both the public and private sectors For example, models generally do not capture policies at state/province, local and municipal scales. Yet, these policies can have a significant effect at national scales. Will policies, measures, and business models that facilitate achievement NDCs be able to be used to achieve long-term goals? Can Article 6 measures be developed that reduce costs and lead to enhance ambition?

6 Business Models, Policies and Measures (2) More research is needed to understand the interaction between multiple societal goals and climate More research is needed to examine interactions between the energy sector and other parts of the system Bioenergy, land-use, unmanaged and managed ecosystems, and water. Non-co2 emissions from a wide range of sources. Greater attention needs to be placed on design of business models that enable deep decarbonization This is particularly true for technologies such as CO2 capture and storage for which there is not business model. Even more daunting the challenge of creating a business model for negative emissions. How can policies and measures minimize stranded assets? What is the role of the financial sectors in facilitating Paris goals? What information will financial institutions need to assess risk? How can development banks help facilitate Paris near-term and longterm goals? Better understanding of the role of public-private partnerships. How can public-private partnerships catalyze new investments and accelerate technological progress?

7 Interactions among the sectors (1) More research to identify scalable approaches and business models for initial mitigation efforts in addition to deep decarbonization, and options for rapid learning across diverse actors. More research is needed to better understand sectoral interactions. How will the demand for energy in end-use sectors interact with supply and infrastructure? How will developments in the power sector affect transport both directly and indirectly? How will technology developments in one sector play out in a changing role in another sector? For example, if CO2 capture and storage (CCS) is available, and particularly if it can be deployed in combination with bioenergy, the depth of decarbonization required by transport could change. More research is needed to better understand the implications of nontax policies. The bulk of the analysis of NDCs and 2/1.5 degree goals assumes that a global, universal tax policy will be deployed. The real world is far more heterogeneous How will climate policy and policies to achieve other non-climate goals, such as sustainable development, interact? How will land-use policies, climate change and water availability affect the role of the sectors? Better methods, models and data are needed to analyze paths to achieve NDCs as well as long-term goals (2/1.5 degrees).

8 Interactions among the sectors (2) Basic scientific research, which is the foundation from which new technologies spring, is important to maintain and grow, in addition to applied research. More research is needed to better understand meeting NDC and long-term goals in a world in which the climate is changing. Will water be a limiting factor for deployment of technology, or will water scarcity drive technology transitions? Can we develop methods, models, and data to jointly consider the twin problems considered at the Trondheim meeting--what are the technical and technological requirements? And, what are the policies, measures and new business models that will be needed to achieve the near-term and long-term goals of the Paris Agreement? Research is needed to better understand and articulate transitions including considerations as jobs, financial resources, and regional and sectoral winners and losers.