NCHRP 20-83(5) Climate Change and the Highway System: Impacts and Adaptation Approaches

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1 NCHRP 20-83(5) Climate Change and the Highway System: Impacts and Adaptation Approaches Professor Michael D. Meyer Frederick R. Dickerson Professor School of Civil and Environmental Engineering Georgia Institute of Technology

2 Research Team PB Americas, Inc. Cambridge Systematics, Inc. Stratus, Inc. Resource Systems Group, Inc. Applied Research Associates, Inc. M2 Resource Consulting, Inc.

3 Objectives: 1) synthesize the current state of knowledge on the range of impacts of climate change on the highway system by region of the United States for the period ) recommend institutional arrangements, tools, approaches and strategies that state DOTs can use during the different stages of planning and project development and system management to adapt both infrastructure and operations to these impacts

4 3) prepare guidance, materials and methods for dealing with these impacts, and Climate Change and Adaptive Transportation Management: xxxxx (e.g., Maintenance) 1. How might climate change affect xxxxx? 2. What is the adaptive transportation system management approach to considering climate change? 3. What are the elements of an adaptive xxxxx program? 4. What strategies can be considered as part of the adaptive xxxxx program? 5. What is the process for considering the analysis of such strategies as part of decision making? 6. What are the risk assessment and cost effectiveness tools that can be used to analyze possible strategies? 7. How is a adaptive xxxxx program established? 8. Technical references

5 4) Identify future research and activities needed to improve our understanding of possible impacts and on the steps needed for adaptive system management.

6 Asset A Asset B Asset C Asset X Network Functions Identify critical assets in the network Identify predominant climate change trends and factors for region Identify impact of these changes on local environmental conditions Adaptation Planning Framework Identify vulnerabilities of highway system to these changing conditions Conduct risk appraisal of vulnerabilities and environmental changes Identify trigger levels Assess feasibility and cost effectiveness of adaptation strategies Change design standards Change operating strategies Change maintenance practices Change construction practices Etc. Identify affected highway agency functions

7 Message 1: The U.S. population will continue to grow with most of this growth occurring in urban areas, and in parts of the country expecting notable changes in climate. Message 2: The composition of this population will be very different than it is today, with more diverse populations and elderly in the nation s population mix. Message 3: Significant levels of housing and corresponding development will be necessary to provide places to live and work for this population, with much of this development likely to occur in areas subject to changing environmental conditions.

8 Message 4: Increasing population growth will create new demands for transportation infrastructure and services, once again in areas that are vulnerable to changing climate conditions. Message 5: The nation s highway system will be facing increasing demands for reconstruction and rehabilitation over the next 40 years (to 2050), which provides an opportunity to incorporate climate adaptation strategies into such efforts, if appropriate.

9 Message 6: New vehicle, fuel and system management technologies will likely be more widely used in 2050 than they are today, but the net effect of such technologies will be to make travel easier and more environmentally benign. This along with increasing travel demand will result in higher levels of vehicle miles traveled, and result in need for more infrastructure.

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14 Actual Change Impact to Operations/Maintenance Category Impact to Infrastructure

15 Summary of Emissions Scenarios

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17 Estimated Increases in Temperature ( o C) in 2050 Relative to 1990 Using A1F1 Scenario, 3 o C Sensitivity

18 Projected Changes in Regional Annual Temperatures ( o F) from 2010 to 2050 (based on 10 GCMs)

19 Projected Regional Changes in Annual Temperature and Precipitation in 2050

20 Projected Changes in Regional Winter Temperatures ( o F) from 2010 to 2050 (based on 10 GCMs)

21 Projected Regional Changes in Winter Temperature and Precipitation in 2050

22 Projected Changes in Regional Summer Temperatures ( o F) from 2010 to 2050 (based on 10 GCMs)

23 Projected Regional Changes in Summer Temperature and Precipitation in 2050

24 Extreme Events 1. Intra-annual extreme temperature range (ETR), defined as the difference between the highest temperature of the year and the lowest 2. Total number of frost days (FD), defined as the annual total number of days with absolute minimum temperature below 32 F (0 C) 3. Number of days with precipitation greater than 10 mm (0.4 inches; R10) 4. Maximum 5-day precipitation total (R5D).

25 Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature Events in 2050 for Eight Regions

26 Projected Changes in Extreme Precipitation Events in 2050 for Eight Regions

27 Coastal State Projections of Sea Level Rise by 2050 Relative to 2010

28 Asset A Asset B Asset C Asset X Network Functions Identify critical assets in the network Identify predominant climate change trends and factors for region Identify impact of these changes on local environmental conditions Adaptation Planning Framework Identify vulnerabilities of highway system to these changing conditions Conduct risk appraisal of vulnerabilities and environmental changes Identify trigger levels Assess feasibility and cost effectiveness of adaptation strategies Change design standards Change operating strategies Change maintenance practices Change construction practices Etc. Identify affected highway agency functions