Environment and Health

Transcription

1 Centre of Energy, Environment and Health Lise M. Frohn, Camilla Geels, Jørgen Brandt, Jesper H. Christensen, Kaj M. Hansen, Ole Hertel, Alexander Baklanov, Allan Gross, Alix Rasmussen, Kenneth Karlsson, Lars Henrik Nielsen, Eigil il Kaas, Torben Sigsgaard, Jan Sørensen, Jytte Seested Nielsen, Esben Meulengracht Flachs, Jacob Hjort Bønløkke, Knud Juel and Henrik Brønnum-Hansen

2 CEEH is an interdisciplinary collaboration with the mission to support planning of future Danish energy systems, where both direct costs as well as external cost to the environment, climate and health are considered. The centre will work on several realistic scenarios characterised by various assumptions on economic growth and energy prices. The product will be suggestions for optimised Danish energy systems. The centre is financed by the Danish Council for Strategic Research and runs over 5 years beginning in January 2007.

3 Objectives CEEH is a collaboration between 7 Danish institutions working within the subject areas of meteorology, toxicology, epidemiology, public health economy and system analysis. Common language: Money and cost minimization

4 Product Estimated total costs for different scenarios, characterised by the size of economical growth and energy prices. Scenarios for 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 are in play. The final product will be suggestions for optimal planning of Danish energy systems for each scenario. Common language: Money and cost minimization

5 CEEH model chain Global air pollution Emission of pollutants Meteorologi / Climate (reference year: 2000) CEEH involves the scientific disciplines meteorology, toxicology, epidemiology, public health economy and systems analysis. Air quality models transport, chemistry and deposition Model tools and data flows from all these disciplines form the CEEH model chain. Population and health data Health effects Energy systems Technologies The first phase of the project consists of running through the model chain for the reference year Future scenarios for the Nordic energy systems Data output from the different models are Environmental effects formatted for easy 2010, access 2020, for 2030, the 2040, next 2050 model tool in (energy production, consumption, Valuation of the chain. emissions, net costs) The model chain starts with a geographic (gridded) data set Models describing for optimisation the existing energy of energysystems systems with known emissions of pollutants. Economical growth external costs (externalities) Global externalities Costs related to CO 2 emissions

6 CEEH model chain Global air pollution Emission of pollutants Meteorologi / Climate (reference year: 2000) Air quality models transport, chemistry and deposition Population and health data Health effects Energy systems Technologies The focus is on PM2.5 and PM10 as well as a number of selected pollutants with Future scenarios for documented harmful effects on environment the Nordic energy and health. systems 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 (energy production, consumption, emissions, net costs) Environmental effects Besides emissions from power plants, also emissions from industry, domestic heating, transport etc are included. Models for optimisation of energysystems Valuation of external costs (externalities) Pollution data from observations of emissions from different pollution sources are collected. Global externalities Costs related to CO 2 emissions Economical growth

7 CEEH model chain Global air pollution Emission of pollutants Meteorologi / Climate (reference year: 2000) Air quality models transport, chemistry and deposition Population and health data Health effects The geographic g distribution of the air pollution is determined by simulations of Future the transport, scenarios for chemical transformation and deposition the using Nordic CTM s. energy Energy systems systems 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 Meteorological data from (energy the year production, 2000 consumption, are applied as base data for the reference year emissions, net costs) Several CTM s are applied in parallel l (DEHM, ENVIRO- Models for optimisation HIRLAM) to address sensitivity issues. Technologies of energysystems Economical growth Environmental effects Valuation of external costs (externalities) Global externalities Costs related to CO 2 emissions

8 CEEH model chain Meteorologi / Climate (reference year: 2000) Health Global air pollution effects are modelled on the basis of results from epidemiological and toxicological research concerning the effect Air quality of air models pollution on public health. Emission of pollutants transport, chemistry and deposition Demographic information regarding age, gender, population forecasts etc are taken into account. Future scenarios for the Nordic energy systems Morbidity is described using national register data on hospital admissions as well as other registers available from the Danish authorities. 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 (energy production, consumption, emissions, net costs) Energy The death systems cause register contributes information for mortality studies. Models for optimisation of energysystems The Technologies health effects are valuated using models describing public health economy. Population and health data Health effects Environmental effects Valuation of external costs (externalities) Global externalities Costs related to CO 2 emissions Economical growth

9 CEEH model chain Global air pollution Emission of pollutants Energy systems Technologies Meteorologi / Climate (reference year: 2000) On the basis of different scenarios describing economical growth Air and quality energy models prices together with transport, chemistry and deposition data obtained in other parts of the model chain, costs for future energy systems are minimised. Both direct and indirect costs (externalities) for environment, climate and health are part of the Future scenarios for optimisation which the takes Nordic into energy consideration the international agreements systems for limitation of CO , 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 emissions. (energy production, consumption, emissions, net costs) Models for optimisation of energysystems Economical growth Population and health data Health effects Environmental effects Valuation of external costs (externalities) Global externalities Costs related to CO 2 emissions

10 Energy System Modelling 2005 to 2050 Macro economic factors Costs of health related externalities Energy demand Transport energy Electricity Heat Fuels - from all sectors Costs of other externalities (climate change, nature etc.) System prices electricity district i t heat hydrogen biofuels energy demand Fuel prices Hardware prices Externalities Energy supply Power plants Boilers Energy storage Hydrogen production Bio-fuels

11 Modelling Global and Regional Energy Systems Global scenarios Balmorel l ( NO-N Boundary conditions i NO-M SE-N FI NO-S SE-M DK-W DK-E SE-S

12 The NERI model system - DEHM Hemispheric domain Europe domain Denmark and surroundings 150x150 km First nest 50x50 km 5x5 km and 1x1 km Second nest 16x16 km

13 Enviro HIRLAM air pollution modelling at DMI Operational areas covered by the Enviro HIRLAM system today 50x50km horizontal down 1.4x1.4km for Denmark. Vertical it goes into the stratosphere

14 Quantification of Health Effects Dose Response Functions Costs of health related externa- lities

15 CEEH model chain Global air pollution Emission of pollutants Energy systems Technologies Meteorologi / Climate (reference year: 2000) Air quality models transport, chemistry and deposition Thank you for your attention! Future scenarios for the Nordic energy systems 2010, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050 (energy production, consumption, emissions, net costs) Models for optimisation of energysystems Population and health data Health effects Environmental effects Valuation 0f external costs (externalities) Global externalities Costs related to CO 2 emissions Economical growth