Energetska tranzicija

Transcription

1 Energetska tranzicija i implikacije na BIH Mislav Slade-Šilović PwC, Strategy & Transformation

2 Teme za danas Energetski trendovi i implikacije na restrukturiranje elektroenergetskih kompanija u EU Ključni faktori uspješnosti restrukturiranja u regiji Okvirna energetska strategija BIH 1

3 2040 Globalni energetski trendovi Global energy growth continues Energy mix evolves New climate change policies +24% by 2040 China and India lead demand growth +38% by 2040 Less oil and coal, more gas, nuclear and renewables Gas leads supply growth +44% by 2040 overtaking coal But oil remains the largest energy source +18% by 2040 driven by transp/petchem COP21 (22, 23, ) Global warming below 2 Digitization and smart networks Key role of technology Efficiency improvement on conventional and renewable sources, building, powertrains Innovation New nuclear concepts, EVs, sslng, 2

4 OIE rastu brzo međutim njihov udio i ukupnom miksu i dalje ostaje limitiran Global primary demand mix Global power gen demand mix 13% 5% 22% 26% 14% 5% 22% 26% +24% 14% 5% 24% 24% 15% 7% 25% 20% +35% +92% +44% -2% 11% 15% 24% 13% 13% 25% +37% 15% 15% 26% 17% 18% 27% +83% +92% +51% 34% 34% 33% 32% +18% 45% 5% 44% 5% 40% 4% 34% 3% +6% -25% Renewables Nuclear Gas Coal Oil Source: ExxonMobil 3

5 2020 EU energetski trendovi Buyer s market, snažna likvidnost na hubovima Uloga uvoznika ostaje manje relevantna Međuovisnost sa Rusijom Rast ponude i likvidnosti LNGa (120mtpa overcapacity by 2025) Konvergencija cijena na globalnoj razini Light at end of the tunnel (smooth increase or new spikes?) Cost + capital efficiency Effectiveness of OPEC? New US energy policy? Climate change goals Energy mix Izlazak elektrana na ugljen i NE 4

6 Vodeće svjetske ekonomije imaju jasne strategije Russia Maximize revenues from resources Use oil and gas as a strategic levers to promote national interests and reaffirm Russia s role as a global powerhouse Selectively support national champions United States America First, self-sufficiency, support to national champions Unlock full potential of shale and natural gas (USD50tr reserves); support Big Oil (e.g. Keystone and Dakota pipelines) Reduce regulation (incl. Climate Change?) Revamp the conventional power generation (coal) China Secure supplies, to fuel growth (e.g. aggressive expansion in Africa) Reduce dependency from imports Support national champions KSA / UAE Leverage energy revenues to create sustainable economies: e.g. KSA Vision 2030 Vision and SAIC Diversify energy mix: renewables, nuclear 5

7 EU mandat je više fokusiran na regulative nego na sveobuhvatnu EU strategiju 40% cut in gas emissions At least 27% share of renewable energy At least 27% saving vs. BAU scenario New ETS (Emission trading system) New KPI for competitiveness and security of energy system New Governance based on national plans for competitive, secure and sustainable energy 6

8 Sažetak par ključnih trendova koji utječu na strategije i transformacije sektora i kompanija Snažan rast OIE Dostupnost tehnologije (generation techology, IT systems, etc.) Promjena u strukturi prihoda tradicionalnog lanca vrijednosti Integracija tržišta Sigurnost opskrbe vs. Energetska nezavisnost 7

9 Radikalne promjene u poslovnom modelima Power sector restructuring - Examples E.ON - Uniper RWE - Innogy RES Distribution Supply and customer Fossil fuel generation Energy trading Exploration and generation Fossil fuel generation Energy trading Exploration and generation RES Distribution Supply and customer 8

10 Vodeće elektroprivrede se aktivno transformiraju Power sector transformation - Examples Dubai / KSA Renewables Power (Smart) Networks (distribution, transmission) Masdar Digitization and new services Smart grid, fiber Reduce fossil fuels & nuclear UNIPER 9

11 Restrukturiranje u regiji Ključni faktori uspješnosti 1. Definirati jasne ciljeve i viziju program 2. Početi na vrijeme 3. Osigurati vertikalnu podršku procesu 4. Aktivno komunicirati 5. Balansirati troškovne i razvoje mjere 6. Upravljati promjenom i uspostavljati novu korporativnu kulturu 7. Dosljedno pratiti implementaciju do kraja 10

12 Fit for growth Okvir za transformaciju Strategija 3 Investiraj za budućnost 1 Prilagodi troškovnu strukturu 2 Prilagodi operativni model i organizaciju Invest in sustainable and differentiated capabilities funded by improvements in the cost structure Develop a clear crossorganisational cost agenda making deliberate choices from front line to back office Implement an organization model, process and systems to unlock potential and enable agility for growth 4 Upravljanje promjenom i korporativnom kulturom 11

13 Restrukturiranje u regiji Ključne poluge 1. Definirati jasnu korporativnu strategiju ili strateške smjernice (tržište, proizvodnja, investicije..) 2. Prilagodba troškovne strukture Uskladiti i prioritizirati investicije sa strategijom, tržišnim okolnostima, regulativom i ostalim obavezama Optimirati investicije i održavanje Odmak od klasičnih nominacija investicija s malo kriterija ( zero based budgeting ) Uvođenje modernih principa asset management te naprednih metoda održavanja (CBM, RBM) Identifikacija aktivnosti koje ne dodaju vrijednost i njihova minimizacija 3. Priprema organizacije za rast Efikasna organizacija sa jasnom ulogom sjedišta i operativnih kompanija Uvođenje modernih procesa za O&M (fokus na proizvodnju i mrežne djelatnosti) Maknuti fokus sa netemeljnih djelatnosti Uvođenje KPI-jeva 4. Investiraj za budućnost Realociraj uštede u izgradnju novih kompetencija (prodaja, marketing, trading, itd.) Intenziviraj investicije u IT Novi proizvodi i usluge Pametne investicije u proizvodni portfelj M&A 12

14 Okvirna energetska strategija BIH 1. Svrha i ciljevi Izrada integrirane Okvirne energetske strategije BIH Preduvjet za otključavanje IPA/WBIF fondova za ulaganje u energetiku 2. Pristup Izrada entitetskih strategija te Državne strategije Strukturiranje ključnih strateških prioriteta po svim segmentima tržišta 3. Proces 13