European Perspectives

Transcription

1 European Perspectives Internationaler Kongress zum EU-LIFE- UMWELT Projekt KAPA GS C. Nagl Folie 1

2 Content Current air quality situation Thematic strategy air (CAFE) Instruments of european air quality policies Future Folie 2

3 PM in Europe (annual mean) Folie 3

4 PM10 daily mean in Europe Folie 4

5 PM10-exceedances : FWD-Reports from 22 MS + NO + IS (Data end 2006) PM10 daily mean limit value: Exceedances in all MS save IE und IS Exceedances in 36% of zones in 13 countries exceedances in more than 50% of zones and agglomerations PM10 annual mean limit value Exceedances in 13% of zones Folie 5

6 Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to anthropogenic PM2.5 in 2000 (1997 meteorology) Folie 6

7 6. Environment action program To achieve levels of air quality that do not give rise to unacceptable impacts on, and risks to, human health and the environment. The aims [...] should be pursued [...] taking into account relevant WHO standards, guidelines and programmes Folie 7

8 CAFE Thematic strategy air - Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) Folie 8

9 The Clean Air for Europe (CAFE) approach : Approach Based on scientific knowledge Using best available, quality-controlled real-world data With close involvement of stakeholders: 1. Project future emissions and air quality resulting from full implementation of current EU legislation 2. Considered health effects, euthrophication, acidification, ozone 3. Explore scope and costs for further measures 4. Analyze cost-effective policy scenarios 5. Estimate benefits of policy scenarios EU Commission agreed on Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution in Folie 9

10 Economic drivers assumed for the CAFE baseline scenario, EU % 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% GDP Primary energy use Passenger km Freight ton-km Cattle lifestock Sea transport Folie 10 source: IIASA

11 Primary PM2.5 emissions for EU25+NO+CH from anthropogenic sources kilotons PM Current legislation 2020 Maximum technical reductions 1: Power plants 2: Non-industrial combustion 3: Industrial combustion 4: Industrial processes 7: Road transport 8: Other mobile sources : Others Folie 11 source: IIASA

12 Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] current legislation MTFR 203 mio YOLLs 136 mio YOLLs 96 mio YOLLs Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5 Calculations for 1997 meteorology Folie 12 source: IIASA

13 Excess nitrogen deposition exceeding critical loads threatening biodiversity CAFE baseline MTFR current legislation Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads Calculation for 1997 meteorology Folie 13 source: IIASA

14 CAFE approach for identifying cost-effective emission control strategies IIASAs RAINS optimization model NEC PM SO 2 NH 3 NO x VOC Health health eutrophication acidification ozone Policy targets on air quality Folie 14 source: IIASA

15 CAFE explored three policy options with different ambition levels (A, B, C) Billion Euro/yr MTFR Years of life lost in C B A thematic strategy CLE Years of life lost (million years) Folie 15 source: IIASA

16 Environmental targets of the Thematic Strategy as proposed by the European Commission Environmental effect PM health impacts Eutrophication Acidification Ozone Joint optimization Targeted improvement compared to baseline 30.8 million life years gained Additional km 2 ecosystems protected Additional km 2 ecosystems protected 1300 premature deaths per year avoided All targets Costs 5.9 bill. /yr 3.9 bill. /yr 3.8 bill /yr 2.9 bill /yr 7.1 bill /yr Five times below the lowest projected value of the Strategy's benefit alone Folie 16 source: IIASA

17 Emission reductions suggested by the Thematic Strategy for 2020 as function of CO 2 [2000=100%] 120% Air pollutant emissions relative to a 0 case 110% 100% 90% 80% 70% 90 CAFE BL 20 0 National NEC projections 60% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105% CO 2 emissions relative to the UNFCCC baseyear emissions SO2 NOx PM Folie 17 source: IIASA

18 Instruments legislation content example emission limit values for mobile and stationary sources product standards emission limit values that should represent BAT limits the amount of certain pollutants in products LCP-RL; IPPC-RL, EUROstandards,.. fuel Dir, VOC-Dir, S in liquid fuels national emission ceilings air quality limit values annual emission ceilings for pollutants to reduce transboundary air pollution prescribes air quality limit value to limit the risk for the population for exposure to certain pollutants NEC-Dir AQFWD, 4 DD Folie 18

19 Instruments legislation content example emission limit values for mobile and stationary sources product standards emission limit values that should represent BAT limits the amount of certain pollutants in products LCP-RL; IPPC- RL, EUROstandards,.. fuel Dir, VOC- Dir, S in liquid fuels national emission ceilings annual emission ceilings for pollutants to reduce transboundary air pollution NEC-Dir air quality limit values prescribes air quality limit value to limit the risk for the population for exposure to certain pollutants AQFWD, 4 DD Folie 19

20 Develepment of real life NOx-emissions Folie 20

21 Outlook A further development of air quality policies in order to achieve the goals of the 6. environment action programme Emissions in the EU-25 will continue to decline in the future with progressing implementation of current legislation (except ammonia) However, air quality problems will remain. Different problems will persist in different regions of Europe There is scope for further measures next steps: implementation in Directives (revision NEC, new AQ Dir, sectoral abatement measures) Policies and measures have to be developed and implemented on all levels (local, regional, national and EU) Folie 21