Understanding and measuring vulnerability to climate change

Transcription

1 Contents Understanding and measuring vulnerability to climate change 23 February 2017

2 Learning outcomes At the end of this session you will have a clear understanding of: 1. The concept of vulnerability and associated terminology 2. The different types of vulnerability assessment methodologies including strengths and weakness of each 3. Available tools and guidelines to assist you in assessing vulnerability to climate change in your own context 2

3 Determining the impacts of climate change depends not only on the nature of climate changes but the vulnerability of the places and people that experience those changes Cape Town Fires March 2015 (Picture: Timm Hoffman) Increased rate of coral bleaching Annual flooding in the informal settlements of Cape Town (Picture: Rodger Bosch) The impact of a storm along South Africa s east coast in March 2007 (Picture: Simon Bundy) 3

4 VULNERABILITY

5 Vulnerability The concept of vulnerability was initially formed within the natural hazards research field (White & Haas 1975) Vulnerability has been conceptualised in many different ways Resulted in a number of different definitions, interpretations and ultimately the approaches taken to identify vulnerability 5

6 IPCC 3 rd and 4 th assessment reports Vulnerability defined a function of 3 factors: (1) Exposure (2) Sensitivity Impact (3) Adaptive Capacity Systems that are highly exposed, sensitive and less able to adapt are vulnerable Vulnerability Vulnerability = Hazard Exposure x Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity 6

7 IPCC 5th assessment report The propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts and elements including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fifth Assessment Report 2014 Degree to which a system is unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes 7

8 IPCC 5th assessment report IMPACTS CLIMATE Vulnerability SOCIOECONOMIC PROCESSES Natural Variability Socioeconomic Pathways Anthropogenic Climate Change Hazards RISK Adaptation and Mitigation Actions Exposure Governance 8 EMISSIONS and Land-use Change

9 Vulnerability (cont.) Changes in both climate system and socio-economic processes (e.g. adaptation and mitigation) are viewed as drivers of hazards, exposure, and vulnerability Vulnerability is inherently dynamic Changes over time as interactions between climaterelated hazards and socio-economic system change Current vulnerability to climate stressors Future vulnerability to climate change 9

10 UNPACKING THE TERMINOLOGY

11 Hazards Climate-related stressors Can be incremental change (e.g. sea-level rise) OR Rapid-onset events such as flash floods Non-climatic stressors (e.g. political instability) 11

12 Exposure System, place or setting that could be adversely affected E.g. Community, city, or region Natural resources Infrastructure or property In a climate change context exposure relates to the degree of climate stress upon a particular unit of analysis Tropical cyclone tracks 12

13 Sensitivity Degree to which the system, community or sector will respond to a climate-related hazard Either adversely OR beneficially Also referred to as biophysical vulnerability It considers the socio-economic context, e.g., the agriculture system and markets 2006 West Java tsunami (source: CRPS 13

14 Adaptive Capacity The ability to adjust to climate change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fifth Assessment Report

15 Adaptive Capacity (cont.) Reflect the status of poverty, health, knowledge/education, and governance Less tangible and harder to document or measure than aspects of exposure and sensitivity Opposite: social vulnerability Having adaptive capacity does not guarantee that adaptation takes place 15

16 Adaptive Capacity (cont.) Clear links with: Resilience: key to enhancing adaptive capacity capacity for a socio-ecological system to (a) absorb stresses and maintain normal functioning in the face of external stress and (b) to adapt in order to be better prepared to future impacts (Folke 2006) Social capital Includes networks of social relationships Often an indicator of resilience and vulnerability 16 Adaptation Adapted from Cutter, S. L., L. Barnes, M. Berry, C. Burton, E. Evans, E. Tate, and J. Webb (2008), A place-based model for understanding community resilience to natural disasters. Global Environmental Change 18:

17 Risk Risk is the result of the relationship between hazard, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Refers to the likelihood of an adverse impact from an event Risk = (Probability of Occurance) Magnitude of Consequences 17

18 Summary Vulnerability = susceptibility to adverse effects + inability to adapt or cope Vulnerability is the result of the interaction of climate hazard with the physical environment, social circumstances, national governance and international politics Vulnerability changes over time in response to socioeconomic process NEXT: Translating the theoretical elements to the practical context 18

19 MEASURING VULNERABILITY

20 Why measure vulnerability? 1. Identify the magnitude of climate (and non-climate) related threats 2. Guide decision-making on international funding and investment 3. Identify measures to reduce vulnerability 4. Prioritise adaptation interventions 20

21 Can vulnerability be measured? Vulnerability is a characteristic, trait, or condition Not readily measured or observable Need proxy measures and indicators Vulnerability is relative, not absolute Everyone is vulnerable, but some are more vulnerable than others Vulnerability relates to consequences or outcomes, and not to the agent itself 21

22 Energiser

23 Assessing vulnerability Vulnerability assessment: a process of identifying, quantifying and prioritising key risks and vulnerabilities of a system to a particular hazard. VA s are commonly distinguished as either following a top-down or bottom-up approach Multitude of frameworks have emerged that differ in the manner in which vulnerability is measured 23

24 Assessing vulnerability (cont.) Top-down or outcome based Bottom-up or contextual based 24 Linear analysis of the projected climate change impacts on a particular exposure unit either biophysical or social, which is offset by adaptation measures Consider climate variability and change to occur in the context of political, institutional, economic and social structures and changes which interact dynamically

25 Common approaches to VAs 1. Proxy or indicator-based approaches 2. Model and GIS-based methodologies 3. Participatory and multi-stressor approaches 4. Combination of the different approaches and methods 25

26 1. Indicator-based methods Use a specific set or combination of proxy indicators in order to produce measurable outputs across various spatial scales. Easily understood by decision-makers Can be used to monitor trends and the implementation of adaptation responses Examples: Livelihood Vulnerability Index (LVI) Household Adaptive Capacity Index (HACI) Well-being Index (HWI) Index of Social Vulnerability to Climate Change for Africa (SVA) 26

27 1. Indicator-based methods (cont.) 27 Source:

28 1. Indicator-based methods (cont.) Case Study: Development of Social Vulnerability Index for South Africa using Census data Index was a composite of information on 14 variables (based on publically available data from StatsSA and IDPs): - E.g. average household size; percentage of the population that is unemployed; percentage of dwellings that are shacks le Roux, A., Khuluse, S. & Naude, A.J. 2015, "Creating a High- Resolution Social Vulnerability Map in Support of National Decision Makers in South Africa" in Cartography-Maps Connecting the World Springer, pp The highly vulnerable areas include the former homelands of Eastern Cape, Kwazulu-Natal, Limpopo and North West provinces

29 1. Indicator-based methods (cont.) Limitations: - Lack of reliable data, particularly socio-economic sources (e.g. health) - Some indicators fail to capture the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of vulnerability, and are unable to convey uncertainty - Difficulty in testing and validating the different metrics used as indicators - E.g. good governance, a key component of adaptive capacity, is difficult to capture in an indicator 29

30 2. Model and GIS-based methods Vulnerability is often visualized through mapping and spatial analysis Scale: sub-national, national, regional, global Biophysical and socio-economic models Use statistical measures of exposure, adaptive capacity, and resilience 30

31 2. Model and GIS-based methods (cont.) Climate Change Vulnerability Index (CCVI) 2016 (Developed by Maplecroft) Example of calculating risk index for flooding based on set of input datasets for ethekwini Municipality (Source: Pienaar & Scholes 2015) 31

32 2. Model and GIS-based methods (cont.) Limitations: - Spatial representations of vulnerability are typically a snapshot of vulnerability - Limited spatial data on coping capacity, adaptive capacity, outcomes of social processes, and measures of well-being - Impression that there is sufficient information on which to base decisions, and thus lead to stakeholders feeling over-confident 32

33 3. Participatory approaches Focus on affected communities or sectors Closely linked with community-based vulnerability approaches Use a wide range of tools: cognitive mapping, interviews, surveys, vulnerability matrices, stakeholder engagement workshops and expert-based inputs Bottom-up processes Recognise multiple stressors beyond those of climate Recognise the interaction of various exposures, sensitivities and adaptive capacities over time 33

34 Participatory Vulnerability Assessment Greater Letaba and Greater Giyani Katinka Lund Waagsaether

35 Methodology Qualitative Analysis Participatory Workshop approach Livelihoods workshops (2, 50 ppl) Sectoral workshops (4, 55 ppl) 35 Collectively exploring Current stressors & challenges (climatic, social, economic) Climate change trends, possible impacts and adaptation responses Conducted with support of the National Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) and the Mopani District

36 Livelihoods Workshops Outputs Participants targeted: Community Development Workers (CDWs) Key livelihoods Current challenges, causes & solutions 36

37 Sectoral Workshop Outputs Current Vulnerability Future Vulnerability 37

38 Methodological challenges and limitations Participatory workshop approach: A lot of information and a long process to go through in the course of one day Concepts are often new to many participants Lost in translation language challenges, for example translating vulnerability Findings are purely based on the perceptions and understanding of workshop participants (~100 people) A large number of perspectives/a lot of information challenging to nail down key messages or a short list of priorities Lack of biophysical perspective (impacts modelling etc) 38

39 Using a combination of approaches to assess vulnerability in Namakwa Municipality, Northern Cape SA Amanda Bourne, Stephen Holness, and Sarshen Scorgie 39

40 Methodology Climate impacts extracted from several climate models for medium and long term Spatial data (socio-economic and ecological) used to create maps identifying priority areas where ecosystems can support adaptation Census 2011 data used to develop indices of poverty, dependence on natural resources and access to services Interviews and workshops with local stakeholders inform understanding of climate risk and adaptive capacity, as well as help to identify projects. 40

41 Vulnerability Index The indicators were assessed on a scale of 1 (low) to 5 (high) Parameter Ecological Vulnerability Socio-economic Vulnerability Exposure Sub-indicator 1: Change in temperature and rainfall Sub-indicator 2: Increase in frequency and magnitude of extreme events drought and flood Sub-indicator 3: Increase in frequency and magnitude of Sub-indicator 1: % population living in the least stable areas according to the climatic envelope stability maps Sensitivity Adaptive Capacity extreme events sea level rise Sub-indicator 1: Change in stability of climatic envelopes associated with particular biomes Sub-indicator 1: % area of natural features supporting landscape resilience to climate change Sub-indicator 1: Total direct dependence on natural resources as a % of the population Sub-indicator 1: Household adaptive capacity measured through a composite general poverty index, as a % of households Sub-indicator 2: Local Institutions supporting climate resilience (effectiveness of service delivery) Sub-indicator 3: Local government officials perception of their current capacity to respond to climate change

42 Vulnerability Index (cont.)

43 Ecosystem Based Adaptation Priority Areas Climate change response plan

44 CONDUCTING A VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

45 Getting started Some questions to begin: 1. For what purpose is the assessment to be used? Raising awareness (education)? Policy making? (e.g., to inform an adaptation plan) 2. What is the spatial scale of the assessment (e.g. the national, provincial to local level) 3. What is of concern? Economic sector (e.g. agriculture)? Specific change in climate (e.g. sea-level rise)? 4. What kind of output is needed? 5. What resources are available to conduct the study? Data, budget, project team, time 6. How do you plan to deal with uncertainty? 45

46 Selecting an approach No one-size fits Select an approach that best suits: Questions being asked Purpose of the assessment The resources available The scale of assessment 46

47 Best Practise Guidelines Guided by the context in which it will be used. Takes into account the entire coupled system into account (climatic, biophysical, and social, economic and political components) Recognises that vulnerability is dynamic Based on the latest science The realities of what the science can and cannot provide is accounted for Incorporates a variety of methods, combining qualitative/ quantitative, bottom-up/top-down, and thus balancing participatory input and objectivity Only scale appropriate data is included in the VA Incorporates stakeholder participation Contributes to developing the capacity of relevant stakeholders. Limitations of the VA method applied are acknowledged and transparent The outcomes can be (to some extent) verified (e.g. ground truth maps) 47

48 Using climate change projections in VAs Choosing the single best GCM or downscaled projection for a vulnerability assessment is problematic Use the largest number of climate change projections as possible Express future change is expressed as a: narrative of potential future changes expressed as future scenarios (e.g. wetter and hotter) summary statistic (e.g. percentiles) of the distribution of projected changes, with some measure or recognition of the spread of possible future climates also provided 48

49 Climate narratives Climate narratives or stories describe, potentially multiple, evolutions of climate Indicate some tentative consideration of impacts, such as heat impact on livestock 49

50 Examples of tools and guidebooks 50

51 Key resources All information presented here is summary of WP4 of South Africa s 3 rd National Communication to UNFCCC Field, C.B., Barros, V.R., Mach, K. & Mastrandrea, M. 2014, "Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability", Working Group II Contribution to the IPCC 5th Assessment Report-Technical Summary,, pp Vincent, K. 2007, "Uncertainty in adaptive capacity and the importance of scale", Global Environmental Change, vol. 17, no. 1, pp Füssel, H. 2007, "Vulnerability: a generally applicable conceptual framework for climate change research", Global Environmental Change, vol. 17, no. 2, pp O Brien, K., Quinlan, T. & Ziervogel, G. 2009a, "Vulnerability interventions in the context of multiple stressors: lessons from the Southern Africa Vulnerability Initiative (SAVI)", Environmental Science & Policy, vol. 12, no. 1, pp Downing, T. & Ziervogel, G. 2004, "Capacity Strengthening in Climate Change Vulnerability and Adaptation Strategy Assessments: Toolkit for vulnerability and adaptation assessments. Preston, B. 2012, "Climate change vulnerability assessment: From conceptual frameworks to practical heuristics. DENC 2016, A Vulnerability Index for the Northern Cape Province tracking adaptation progress at the subnational level, The Department of Environment and Nature Conservation of the Northern Cape. Turpie, J. & Visser, M. 2013, The impacts of climate change on South Africa s Rural Areas. 51

52 Practical

53 Practical exercise: In your case study groups: You have: 1) Investigated current and future climate Task: 1) Assess vulnerability to current climate and future climate changes 2) Identify key climate risk to respond to 53 (UKCIP adaptation planning cycle)

54 Practical exercise: In your case study groups: On flipchart paper / on a power-point slide: Complete the vulnerability matrix 54

55 Vulnerability Matrix (option 1) Climate drivers Impact Consequences and nature of risk 1. Present Flooding Heavy Soil Rainfall Erosion Homes destroyed, crops destroyed, sanitation problems as water contaminated Risk Analysis Timeframe Impact Likelihood Near term ( ) Long term ( ) 2. Present Near term ( ) Long term ( ) Confidence Adaptative Capacity High Medium Low Unknown Adaptation Priority Level of Risk and potential for adaptation

56 Classification of likelihood Guided by IPCC AR5 WGII level of confidence 56

57 Vulnerability Matrix (option 2) Sector Current stressors to the system Impacts of future climate change Consequences and nature of risk of future climate change 1. More Contributes Present Storm Combined localised to water water sewer flooding quality manage over-flows Water degradation ment quality Ecosystem issues health impacts Risk Analysis Timeframe Impact Likelihood Near term ( ) Long term ( ) Adaptative Capacity Level of Risk and potential for adaptation 2. Present Near term ( ) Long term ( )