Science for Global Sustainability

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1 Science for Global Sustainability EU 2012 Scientific Support for the transition to a low carbon economy 6th March 2012 Prof. Johan Rockström Stockholm Resilience Centre Stockholm Environment Institute

2 Growing Human Pressure [20/80 dilemma] Climate change [560/450/400 dilemma] Ecosystem decline [60 % loss dilemma] Surprise [99/1 dilemma]

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4 Humanity has reached a planetary saturation point A resilient biosphere the basis for humen development Climate change one interacting component of global sustainability A great transformation to global sustainability necessary, possible, and desirable Johan Rockström and Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre

5 The level of political ambition should meet the demands of science President Zuma of South Africa Host of COP 17 in Durban 6th December 2011

6 Ban Ki-moon High-Level Panel on Global Sustainability The current global development model is unsustainable. We can no longer assume that our collective actions will not trigger tipping points as environmental thresholds are breached, risking irreversible damage to both ecosystems and human communities. At the same time, such thresholds should not be used to impose arbitrary growth ceilings on developing countries seeking to lift their people out of poverty. Indeed, if we fail to resolve the sustainable development dilemma, we run the risk of condemning up to 3 billion members of our human family to a life of endemic poverty. Neither of these outcomes is acceptable, and we must find a new way forward.

7 Extreme weather events more common, with larger social and economic impacts, coupled to human induced climate change

8 Humanity most likely committed to 2 Degrees Masking by air pollution Warming of oceans Ecosystem sink

9 World Economic Forum, Global Risks Report 2012 WEF OECD Non-linear developments... IEA 2017 intecknat all fossil energi Biologisk mångfald stopp... Water supply crises Food shortage crises Chronic fiscal inbalances Failure of climate change adaptation Terrorism Extreme volatility of energy and agricultural prices

10 Kummu, Ward, de Moel, Varis 2010 Environmental Research Letters

11 When reality is changing faster than theory suggests it should, a certain amount of nervousness is a reasonable response The Economist

12 the great CO 2, N 2 O, CH 4 acceleration concentrations of the human entreprise, Overfishing Professor Will Steffen Land degradation Loss Biodiversity The Planetary.. Response to the drivers of the Anthropocene

13 6th Global Mass Extinction of Species on Planet Earth

14 Photo: CC Jason Auch / Azote

15 Photo: S Zeff / Azote

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17 Photo: B Christensen / Azote

18 Photo: B Christensen / Azote

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20 The Resilience of the Earth System

21 Humanity s 10,000 years of grace

22 Transgressing safe boundaries Global freshwater use Rockström et al Nature, 461 (24):

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24 Global Energy Assessment Scenarios (2012) 40 Peak by 2020 Global CO 2 emissions (GtCO 2 ) GEA - Supply GEA - Mix GEA - Efficiency Reductions of 31-71% by 2050 almost zero or negative in the long term

25 Global sustainability now a prerequisite for Poverty Alleviation Integrated Science, Predict risks of catastrophic thresholds Service in provision, the Earth system Actionable Research, Innovation pathways for a Grand Transformation to global sustainability Strategic program convergence Planetary Stewardship for human prosperity in the Anthropocene

26 A global Alliance for a new 10-year initiative Note: WMO is an observer to Future Earth 26

27 Ban Ki-moon High Level Panel on Global Sustainability 51. Governments and the scientific community [ ] launching of a major global scientific initiative, to strengthen the interface between policy and science. This should include the preparation of regular assessments and digests of the science around such concepts as planetary boundaries, tipping points and environmental thresholds in the context of sustainable development [ ].

28 A global transition to a low carbon economy what will it take? 1.Planetary stewardship of the biosphere 2.Zero global carbon emissions by Resilience for adaptation and avoiding tipping points