Bruce Ross RGC at NRA Convention International Market Forum October 26,

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1 Bruce Ross International Market Forum October 26,

2 Remember EU policy shapes the rendering industry s business environment - globally Most important developments in the last year Continued low number of BSE cases Relaxation of EU TSE regulations Diverging Trans-Atlantic trade policies BREXIT talks Major upcoming developments BREXIT and other trade opportunities Renewable energy policy post-2020 Further relaxation of the BSE feed ban 2

3 N of cases in 2017 is three so far (all atypical) Provisional n for 2016 is five cases (one classical) In 2015 there were five cases (three classical) 11 cases in 2014 (three classical) Seven cases in 2013 Positive trend and background for developments as Martin has illustrated Allows: BSE status changes, SRM reduction, more domestic EU sales, possible trade opportunities Ought to allow reciprocal trade 3

4 On Oct 13, 2017 Commission requested new scientific opinion on BSE risks of PAP in feed Last such opinion was in 2010 COM has asked specifically about the threat to cattle of reauthorising pig PAP in poultry and poultry PAP in pig feed and for an assessment of a possible action limit ( technical zero ) when using PCR method for detection of PAP of ruminant origin in feed COM has asked for opinion by 30 June 2018 Maybe the TSE Roadmap can be opened again 4

5 On the recent ruminant PAP for pet food issue, and others, Commission and EFPRA invoke international standards, especially OIE guidelines EFPRA wants the EU to follow OIE standards in domestic legislation and internationally This is in line with NRA thinking Obviously the NRA will seek to cooperate where possible WRO discussed review of OIE BSE guidelines 5

6 Confusion in Europe over US trade policy Executive branch appears to be backing away from and/or questioning several structures: WTO (US blocking appointments) NAFTA TPP TTIP Not to mention the UN (UNESCO) & NATO This is on the back of the US pulling out of the climate change accord US has every right to do so. But NRA believes in trade ( Improving foreign market access by working to eliminate artificial and non-tariff trade barriers is a priority for NRA ) 6

7 Federica Mogherini said on October 19 There is only one global power today that is credible, reliable and predictable for the rest of the world and not only to its citizens and this is the EU In trade and elsewhere this used to be the US I didn t believe the EU would be claiming the moral high ground on trade 7

8 This is important from a practical point of view Renderers need trade liberalisation to continue And for international standards to be respected That necessitates the institutions that set those standards and police their implementation 8

9 The EU wants FTAs with, inter alia, Australia, Japan, MERCOSUR, Mexico & New Zealand (and many other Asian countries) The EU would like to revive TTIP and the WTO multilateral trade round It s a clear path but many rocks along the way For example, CETA is still limping to full implementation there remains a strong antitrade/anti-globalisation movement in Europe 9

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11 The EU has updated its trade strategy and its trade defence instruments It has sought further protections for citizens This makes concluding trade deals more difficult, but hopefully more publicly acceptable The recurrence of nationalism doesn t help Nor does BREXIT, which uses valuable trade negotiating resources The BREXIT talks are, inexplicably to some, stuck at many political and technical levels 11

12 There is one possible explanation of this (historical but still relevant) Like much comedy there is a serious point behind it 12

13 UK to leave the EU by end-march 2019 Canada & US could negotiate FTAs with UK But it will take time Bilateral talks (no negotiations) allowed for now Could there be opportunities for NRA members? I guess more for fats than proteins Unlikely that domestic UK legislation will alter much in the short-term, UK will probably transfer all EU animal by-product legislation to UK books Energy/fuel policies might diverge though 13

14 Binding target figures for 2030 were set in 2014 Aims are GHG reduction of 40%; renewable energy & efficiency increase of 27% at EU level Member states decide how to contribute New renewable energy Directive RED II deal in the coming months Biofuels post-2020 current view if not changed This is important from a practical point of view No target for renewable energy in transport fuels No more double-counting Member states decide to promote biofuels or not 14

15 Possible implications Business as usual until 2020 Likely no EU-level mandates or targets for biofuels post-2020 Uncertain future for UCO and tallow, but they re better off than food crop-based feedstocks Much will depend on member state & EP attitudes GHG savings values of fuels, and their sustainable supply will be key in future 15

16 Latest EBB data Operating at approx. 55% of capacity 16

17 Farmers and epure worried that crop-based biofuels will be forced off the market after Fighting back EWABA/NRA fighting back too Commission agreeing with us so far EP views are mixed that s the battlefield now To be followed by a struggle among member states, many of which want to defend farmers interests (ie. crop-based fuels over waste based) 17

18 Biodiesel industry can use traditional arguments And also show its public service contribution Example of Argent and the Whitechapel fatberg 18

19 Bruce Ross Ross Gordon Consultants SPRL 17, rue Dekens B-1040 Bruxelles Tel : GSM/cell : E.Mail : bruce.ross@skynet.be 19