Theory. Second Hydro-Hegemony Workshop. London Water Research Group Goodenough College

Transcription

1 HydroHegemony Hegemony and Hydropolitical Complex Theory Second HydroHegemony Workshop 67 May 2006 London Water Research Group Goodenough College Dr. Anthony Turton Research Group Leader: Water Resource Governance Systems President: Universities Partnership for Transboundary Waters AR Turton, 2006.

2 Key Hypothesis The IWRM Paradigm is by definition a Sanctioned Discourse. Central to that paradigm is the acceptance of the river basin as the unit of analysis. What of groundwater for example? BUT, we know that all river basins are different, so how helpful is it to always use the river basin as the best, or only, unit of analysis? THEREFORE, to advance the discipline of hydropolitics, we need to consider other units of analysis that enable us to take into consideration the subtle drivers that tend to get filtered out at the river basin unit of analysis.

3 So, for example: Is schina aalways aysaa hydrohegemon, ydo o or is its relationship in different river basins nuanced to reflect its sometimes localized strategic interests? Is South Africa a hydrohegemon now as it might have been in the past, or has this posture changed to reflect shifts in strategic thinking? Is a country with more than one transboundary river basin, always consistent in its behaviour visàvis other riparians, or is this nuanced?

4 So, for example: Can we better understand the Indus River hydropolitical dynamics if we nest an analysis of them within the South Asian Regional Security Complex originally proposed by Buzan (1991)? Is the HydroSecurity Complex in the Tigris and Euphrates (Schulz, 1995) an element of the Regional Security Complex, or manifestation of a set of political dynamics all on their own? How does the existing focus on the Nile factor in the very different set of riparian relations arising i from codependence d on aquifers?

5 Regional Security Complexes as defined by Buzan (1991:210)

6 Southern African Hydropolitical Complex as defined by Turton & Ashton (2006) International River Basins Pivotal Impacted Ripariani States Orange Limpopo In ncomati Ok kavango Cunene Maputo Pungué Sav verunde Zambezi Impa acted Sta ates Pivotal St tates Namibia Botswana South Africa Zimbabwe Angola Mozambique Swaziland Lesotho Zambia Malawi Tanzania SC Legend: = Pivotal State = Impacted State SC = Special case A R Turton, 2004 Ashton & Turton, 2005

7 Hydropolitical Complex A hydropolitical complex occurs when a nation s dependence d on shared water systems (both surface and groundwater) is of such a strategic nature that this dependence starts to drive interstate relations of potential amity and/or enmity in a discernable manner. Securitization = Security Complex dynamics Politicization = Hydropolitical Complex dynamics The Southern African Hydropolitical Complex is a component of the Regional Security Complex defined by Buzan (1991). There are possibly at least three such complexes in Africa, but most are as yet highly underresearched.

8 Nile Hydropolitical Complex partly defined by Allan (2000) West African African Hydropolitical Complex? Southern African Hydropolitical Complex defined by Turton (2003)

9 Tigris & Euphrates Hydropolitical Security Complex as defined by Schulz (1995). Central Asian Hydropolitical Complex? South East Asian Hydropolitical Complex?

10 In Conclusion We need to think about different e units of analysis if we are to develop the discipline of Hydropolitics further. Remember that the analyst can define the unit of analysis and the level of analysis. Focus should be given to both vertical and horizontal linkages in each case. This gives nuanced insights i into complex dynamics in a way that is potentially more useful.

11 Thanks to the London Water Research Group and good luck to the participants