Assessing the long-term impact of PI measures in industrial process systems

Transcription

1 Assessing the long-term impact of PI measures in industrial process systems Simon Harvey Professor of Industrial Energy Systems Division of Energy Technology Chalmers University of Technology Göteborg, Sweden

2 Long-term development of industrial processes for resource-efficient and carbon-lean production PI is strategically important for all options! Increased use of excess process heat Renewable energy sources Energy efficient processes Carbon capture and storage/reuse Electrification including electrofuels and electrofeedstocks Renewable and/or recycled feedstock Integration with ecoindustrial parks and/or regional energy systems

3 A structured approach to improving energy efficiency in industrial facilities Energy efficiency Housekeeping Control systems Improved unit operations Process integration Step changes in process design and/or energy supply Systems approach Process integration Recover heat from one process to be reused in another Process intensification De-bottlenecking / uprating Overall plant or site-wide optimisation Time

4 Energy efficiency Housekeeping Investors need methods and tools to compare significantly different options in a consistent way Control systems Improved unit operations Process integration Step changes in process design and/or energy supply Time Innovative design Combined heat and power Advanced heat pumping New process technology incl. electrification Energy-efficient separation (e.g. membranes) Overall plant or site-wide optimisation Eco-industrial parks Deliver excess heat to a district heating network or other off-site heat sink

5 Process integration studies for strategic decisionmaking in industry: Assessing biorefinery options for a TMP pulp and paper mill Sawmill residues used as fuel in P&P mill Low T excess heat Sawmill Low value byproducts

6 Process integration studies for strategic decision-making in industry: Assessing biorefinery options for a TMP pulp and paper mill Electricity Process heat Paper Combined Heat and Power Plant Pulp wood Pulp chips Low T excess heat Sawn goods High T excess heat Timber Sawmill Low value forestry residues Gasificationbased energy mill Sawmill residues Bulk chemical or motor fuel

7 Investigating energy mill options 1 Process layouts GCC of FT liquids energy mill (sized to match sawmill/p&p mill heat demand) Shifted temperature [⁰C] 3 Process integration GCC of integrated CHP unit 2 Process simulation Net heat load [MW] GCC of background host site sawmill/p&p mill

8 4 Energy Technology Compile key data for different energy mill options (e.g. net product and feedstock flows) Energy mill 1 GTCC power 121,4 MW generation 83,5 MW Low value forestry residues Electricity surplus Low value forestry residues 536,4 MW Energy mill 2 MeOH Electricity deficit Methanol 14,4 MW 322 MW Low value forestry residues 186,4 MW Energy mill 2 FT liquids Electricity deficit FT liquids 18,6 MW 148 MW

9 5 Assess energy mill investment options using energy market scenarios Key question for investor: Which energy mill option will generate most revenue and has greatest potential for CO 2 emissions abatement in the future? The challenge: energy prices, energy market policy instruments as well as the carbon intensity of energy carriers in the surrounding system will change over time To answer this we need Future energy prices and policy instruments as well as a complete description of the future energy system which we do not have Solution: construct scenarios with possible consistent combinations of future energy prices, policy instruments and energy market description

10 ENPAC: Energy Price and Carbon balance Scenarios tool

11 Constructing consistent energy market scenarios in ENPAC an overview IEA WEO Fossil fuel prices on the N.European commodity market Based on statistical data for Sweden end product market Based on base-load build margin (achieving minimum levelized COE) Fossil fuel module Fuel prices and well-to-gate CO 2 emissions Electricity module Electricity price and associated grid CO 2 emissions Wood energy module Wood fuel price and CO 2 emission consequences of marginal use of wood fuel Heat energy module Price and reduction of CO 2 emissions for heat Policy instruments IEA WEO & other sources Based on WTP for biomass as fossil fuel substitute Based on WTP for heat based on alternative production cost

12 Electricity module in more detail From a list of candidate technologies, the module identifies base load build margin based on technology with lowest COE. (Operating margin is used for year 2020.) Resulting technology depends on capital costs, fuel prices and level of policy instruments. Future electricity prices are assumed to be close to COE for base load build margin. CO 2 emissions related to electricity are assumed to be according to emissions of the load build margin power plant.

13 Marginal electricity generation Identification of the power generation technology that constitutes the base load build margin: Simulations in TIMES Nordic. Model response to increased demand (5 TWh/y) during the time period The model increases the electricity production in cheapest possible way. The result is a mix of operating margin and build margin is used, as well as a mix of different technologies (e.g. wind and nuclear).

14 Marginal electricity generation TWh el Northen Europe Hydro Nuclear Coal Oil NG Bio Wind Solar Example from scenario with CO 2 prices similar to those in the WEO 450 ppm scenario. In scenarios with lower CO 2 price there will be more wind available as build margin.

15 Candidate technologies considered in ENPAC for different model years and scenarios (can be set by user) Base year WEO-450 WEO-np WEO-cp Current conditions WEO-450 WEO-np WEO-cp Current conditions WEO-450 WEO-np WEO-cp Current conditions Coal om om om om om bm bm bm bm bm bm bm bm NGCC om om om om om bm bm bm bm bm bm bm bm Wind bm bm bm bm bm bm bm Nuclear bm bm bm Coal CCS bm bm bm bm NGCC CCS bm bm bm bm om = operating margin, bm = build margin

16 Sample results for pulp mill / sawmill / energy mill Reduction potential if process CO 2 is captured and stored The concept with largest CO 2 reduction potential varies significantly with the assumed carbon intensity of grid base-load power generation

17 Take-home message There is a significant potential for decarbonizing industry The potential is even greater if a systemic approach is adopted. It is important to investigate new technologies as well as the possible interplay between new technologies and systems Process integration methods and tools can be used for strategic screening of decarbonization options for industrial processes Strategic screening requires good insights about possible and consistent developments of energy prices, policy instruments, and carbon intensity of energy carriers in the surrounding energy system. Energy market scenarios can facilitate the screening process

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