Mitigating energy demand emissions

Transcription

1 Mitigating energy demand emissions The integrated modelling perspective O.Y. Edelenbosch, D.P. van Vuuren, K. Blok, K. Calvin, S. Fujimori

2 Energy demand Energy demand sectors: Buildings, Industry and Transport Energy demand sector directly and indirectly contribute to global CO2 emissions More focus on energy supply (IEA 2016) Supply CO 2 Demand CO 2

3 Demand sector complexity Demand Sectors Many subsectors Many technologies Different users High capital stock turnover Less defined decision-making criteria In IAMs More detail comes at a costs Data intensive Uncertain assumptions Transparent Aggregated trends Effect: Demand side changes not so well understood

4 Integrated Assessment Models Interaction of human development, earth system and environmental system Integration across different issues and disciplines Focused on decisions processes (assessment) Sugiyama et al. (2014), Marangoni et al. (2017) show energy intensity projections, important determinant of future carbon emissions

5 This research Assess the role of the energy demand sectors in global stringent mitigation pathways Making use of the newly developed Shared Socio-Economic scenarios Compare to recent technology assessment of the demand sectors for 2030

6 Methods Cross model Cross demand sector Cross scenario Decomposition Buildings SSP1: AIM/CGE Efficiency green growth IMAGE SSP2: GCAM Electrification middle of the road Industry MESSAGE SSP3:regional Fuel content rivalry Transport Model AIM/CGE GCAM IMAGE 3.0 MESSAGE-GLOBOIM Solution method Recursive dynamic Recursive dynamic Recursive dynamic Intertemporal optimization Model category General equilibrium (GE) Direct emissions = Pop FE Pop 1 Elec Partial equilibrium Hybrid FE (PE) with FE Energy service demand = Pop Pop Hybrid Hosting institute NIES PNNL PBL IIASA Direct emissions 1 Elec FE Energy service demand Riahi et al., 2017, van Vuuren et al., 2017, O Neill et al., 2014

7 Baseline emissions

8 Baseline - components

9 Stringent mitigation

10 Mitigation - componets

11 Technology Assessment (Gap report) UNEP GAP: Technology-oriented study assessing sectoral reduction potentials Bottom-up approach Per sector for a cut-off cost-level of 100 US$/tCO2e (UNEP, 2017) based on literature review Compared to a reference level: energy related emissions based on the WEO current policy scenario (IEA, 2016)

12 Technology assessment Comparison with bottom up technology assessment for 2030: More potential for efficiency! (UNEP GAP, 2017)

13 Conclusions Baseline emissions can grow rapidly in industrial and transport sectors Key uncertainty is saturation of final energy The SSP scenarios show that the growth of the demand sector and the technology development largely affects the sectors mitigation challenge Demand side mitigation is dependent on energy efficiency and fuel switching in the short term but fuel switching becomes dominant More potential for energy efficiency improvement Need to better understand demand side dynamics

14 Questions?

15 References IEA World Energy Outlook International Energy Agency, Paris, France. O NEILL, B. C., KRIEGLER, E., RIAHI, K., EBI, K. L., HALLEGATTE, S., CARTER, T. R., MATHUR, R. & VAN VUUREN, D. P A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways. Climatic Change, 122, RIAHI, K., VAN VUUREN, D. P., KRIEGLER, E., EDMONDS, J., O NEILL, B. C., FUJIMORI, S., BAUER, N., CALVIN, K., DELLINK, R., FRICKO, O., LUTZ, W., POPP, A., CUARESMA, J. C., KC, S., LEIMBACH, M., JIANG, L., KRAM, T., RAO, S., EMMERLING, J., EBI, K., HASEGAWA, T., HAVLIK, P., HUMPENÖDER, F., DA SILVA, L. A., SMITH, S., STEHFEST, E., BOSETTI, V., EOM, J., GERNAAT, D., MASUI, T., ROGELJ, J., STREFLER, J., DROUET, L., KREY, V., LUDERER, G., HARMSEN, M., TAKAHASHI, K., BAUMSTARK, L., DOELMAN, J. C., KAINUMA, M., KLIMONT, Z., MARANGONI, G., LOTZE-CAMPEN, H., OBERSTEINER, M., TABEAU, A. & TAVONI, M The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview. Global Environmental Change, 42, UNEP The Emissions Gap Report Nairobi, Kenya: United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) VAN VUUREN, D. P., RIAHI, K., CALVIN, K., DELLINK, R., EMMERLING, J., FUJIMORI, S., KC, S.,KRIEGLER, E. & O NEILL, B. 2017a. The Shared Socio-economic Pathways: Trajectories for human development and global environmental change. Global Environmental Change, 42,

16 Technology Assessment (baseline) Questions?