Cost-effective EU-measures to reduce exposure of the urban population

Transcription

1 Cost-effective EU-measures to reduce exposure of the urban population M. Amann, J. Borken-K., G. Kiesewetter EMEP Centre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM) International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) TFIAM/FAIRMODE Workshop on modelling of urban and regional measures for improved air quality February 1-16, 217, Utrecht, The Netherlands

2 Contents Air pollution in cities two areas of concern: Health impacts mainly related to population exposure of PM2. Legal compliance with AQ limit values for NO 2 and PM1 Source apportionment in cities - PM2. and NO 2 Importance of long-range transport Outlook to 23: Remaining sources Potential biases Geo-politics

3 Population exposure PM2. 29 Netherlands France Poland μg/m 3 PM μg/m 3 PM μg/m 3 PM Source: Kiesewetter et al., TSAP Report #12

4 The NEC Directive aims at cost-effective reductions of PM2. and its precursor emissions % SLOV PORT CROA ROMA SPAI BULG LITH ESTO GREE HUNG UNKI SKRE LATV ITAL AUST CZRE POLA DENM BELG MALT FINL IREL FRAN GERM CYPR SWED NETH LUXE EU28 PM reductions relative to baseline -1% -2% -3% -4% -% -6% Coal fired Power Plants Industry: Cement Industry: Aluminum Industry: Fertilizer Production Industry: Iron and Steel Residential and Commercial: Coal Residential waste burning Industry: Other Processes Other PM sources Agricultural Waste burning Residential and Commercial: Biomass Key measures: Modern biomass stoves with lower emissions and higher energy efficiency (Enforcement of) ban of agricultural waste burning Stricter PM controls for some industrial processes

5 How the European Commission derived the ambition level for its 213 Clean Air proposal Loss in statistical life expectancy Current legislation 23: months life shortening billion Euro/yr Benefits range Emission control costs Emission control costs Emission control costs Total health benefits vs. total emission control costs % 1% 2% 3% 4% % 6% 7% 8% 9% 1% Gap closure (% between CLE and MTFR) Commission proposal: 67% gap closure in 23: -% health impacts compared to 2 Marginal cost/benefits (billion Euro/% gap closure) Optimal range for gap closure Marginal benefits (range)/% Marginal costs/% Marginal health benefits vs. marg. emission control costs Gap closure (% between CLE and MTFR) Maximum additional controls: 3.6 months life shortening

6 Population exposure PM2. 23 NEC (% lower than in 2) Netherlands France Poland μg/m 3 PM μg/m 3 PM μg/m 3 PM

7 Compliance with PM1 limit values MTFR 23 MTFR includes only technical measures taken at country-level. Additional (and perhaps cheaper) potential from local and non-technical measures!

8 Beyond 23: Major sources of PM2. exposure in cities Regional sources: Secondary inorganic aerosols involving agricultural NH 3 Heating with solid fuels in households Urban sources: Heating with solid fuels in households Road transport kilotons PM2. emissions, EU Agri+waste PP+Industry Residential Transport kilotons PM2. emissions from road transport, EU HDT non-exh. LDT non-exh. Cars non-exh. HDT diesel LDT diesel Cars diesel Cars gasoline

9 of PM2. and NO 2 in European cities GAINS estimates for 29, mean of all urban airbase stations PM2. NO µg/m µg/m Regional component Urban increment Road increment Regional component Urban increment Road increment Natural Secondary PPM LPS PPM Households PPM Transport Unexplained Stationary Buses Trucks Cars GSL Cars Diesel

10 Projections of NO 2 emissions from road transport and compliance with NO 2 limit values Hypothetical Euro 7/VII scenarios: emission standards ~1/3 of Euro 6/VI

11 Compliance with NO 2 limit values 21 22

12 Source contributions to PM2. in Delhi 21 µg/m 3 3 PM Indian standard WHO guideline Diesel soot Diesel soot Road dust, tyre wear, brakes Road dust, tyre wear, brakes Fireworks, cremation, etc. Fireworks, cremation, etc. Trash burning, BBQ, smoking Trash burning, BBQ, smoking Cookstoves Cookstoves Small industries Small industries High stacks power & industry High stacks power industry Sec. PM2.: Agr. NH3 + SO2/NOx Sec. PM2.: Agr. NH3 SO2/NOx Agricultural waste burning Agricultural waste burning Soils and vegetation Soils and vegetation

13 GAINS PMEH Hanoi S Ambient PM2. Premature deaths Greenhouse Costs Co-benefits Ambient air Household gases Annual costs Investments 3 2 Greenhouse gases (Mt CO2eq) Annual mean concentrations, µg/m cases 98 cases 23 Mt CO2eq 3.3% of GDP 43 mio US-$ Premature deaths (cases/yr) BAU with measures DRIVERS (rel to 21) Hanoi Bac Ninh - H. North Vietnam MEASURES Hanoi Bac Ninh - H. North Vietnam Socio-economic drivers Power plants Population change (%/yr).2%.%.4% Industry Income growth (%/yr) 4.7% 4.7% 4.7% Households Mobility demand Agriculture Share two-wheelers 8% 82% 1% Road transport Share diesel 1% 9% 46% Road transport Industrial structure Particle filter for all diesel vehicles 1% 1% 1% Euro 6 for all gasoline road vehicles 1% 1% 1% 2% COST-EFFECTIVENESS Inspection and maintenance % % % 2% ANALYSIS Electric motorbikes % % % 1% Determines the cheapest measures Hybrid cars % % % for the following targets: Enhanced bus systems % % % 1% % % Population GDP Mobility Other NC region Bac Ninh, Hung Yen Hanoi Prem. deaths: CNG buses % % % GHG emissions: Electric public transport % % % Start Non-road machinery Other sources IIASA, Version enc.1, December 216

14 Conclusions The dominant share of air pollution health impacts within cities is caused by emissions from outside areas. The EU Clean Air Policy package establishes a cost-effective approach to reduce health impacts by % Further improvements need to address heating with solid fuels and agricultural sources (+ non-exhaust emissions from transport) While there are uncertainties about the direct health impacts of NO 2, local traffic sources make largest contribution to population exposure. Strict compliance with Euro-6/VI and/or less diesel vehicles would alleviate the problem. Local measures could accelerate. European experience offers a convincing example for effective strategies to clean up the air in cities in developing countries.

15 Thank you!