On the climate challenge and northsouth technology collaboration

Transcription

1 On the climate challenge and northsouth technology collaboration Helge Drange

2 Outline 1) Global climate: Status 2) Climate change adaptation 3) Examples Typhoons & hurricanes Rain / drought Heatwaves Sea level rise Ocean acidification 4) Technology collaboration 5) Summary

3 Today (Ensemble Mean IPCC 4AR, Scenario A2)

4 Today 3 mill yr 1 Mitigation 2 Adaptation 3 Responsibility 4 Opportunities (Ensemble Mean IPCC 4AR, Scenario A2)

5 Observed global change in temperature ( ) The 12 warmest years have all occurred during the last 13 years Why warming?

6 Observed and projected atmospheric CO ppm 550 ppm CO 2 (ppm) 280 ppm 200 ppm Today: 0 C 2100: Temperatur ( o C) 5.8 C Highest level in years 1.4 C Likely highest level in 20 million years The main reason for the increase is burning of coal, oil and gas (2/3rds), and deforestration (1/3rd) -8 C 650, ,000 år

7 Solar irradiance and cosmic radiation cannot explain the observed warming during the recent decades, increased GHGs can But solar irradiance, the distance between the Earth and Sun, and the tilt of the Earth s rotation axis govern climate variations in the past

8 Observed global change in temperature ( ) Future?

9 IPCC temperature scenarios +4 ºC: With todays emissions + 3 ºC: Irreversible changes + 2 ºC wrt to 1850: EU-target Requires >50% reduced GLOBAL emissions by 2050, and much larger reductions thereafter IPCC 2007

10 Trajectory of Global Fossil Fuel Emissions Emissions Gt-C per yr CO 2 Emissions (GtC y -1 ) Actual emissions: CDIAC Actual emissions: EIA 450ppm stabilisation 650ppm stabilisation A1FI A1B A1T A2 B1 B SRES (2000) growth rates in % y -1 for : A1B: 2.42 A1FI: 2.71 A1T: 1.63 A2: 2.13 B1: 1.79 B2: 1.61 Observed % Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS

11 IPCC Temperature scenarios, vs SRES B1: Ca. 50% reduction by 2050

12 IPCC Temperature scenarios, vs SRES B1: Ca. 50% reduction by 2050 SRES A2: Businessas-usual

13 Outline 1) Global climate: Status 2) Climate change adaptation 3) Examples Typhoons & hurricanes Rain / drought Heatwaves Sea level rise Ocean acidification 4) Technology collaboration 5) Summary

14 Multiple stresses Global temperature, IPCC AR4

15 Multiple stresses Comined effect: Population + Exisiting infrastructure + T + P + Glaciers + SLH +... Variability intensity, duration) Food/water availability/quality Are climate / human society / ecosystems heading towards thresholds? hhh(frequency,

16 Unstable, often unknown and possibly Unstable irreversible situation situation Stable situation = known climate A new climate state: Regime shift

17 Outline 1) Global climate: Status 2) Climate change adaptation 3) Examples Typhoons & hurricanes Rain / drought Heatwaves Sea level rise Ocean acidification 4) Technology collaboration 5) Summary

18 1 Sep 2005: Typhoon Talim (Isang), Force 4

19 6 Sep 2005: Super Typhoon Nabi (Jolina), Force 5

20 11 Sep 2005: Typhoon Khanun (Kiko), Force 4

21 Western Norway, 14 September 2005

22 14 Sep 2005

23 Slides in Norway on 14 November, 2005

24 Expected change in rainfall (SRES A1B) Wetter Dryer Trigger conflicts, influence food production and supply Climate refugees

25 Heat wave in south and central Europe, August 2003 London Paris Oslo Lasted for two weeks fatalities Failure in power supply Excessive melting of mountain glaciers Loss: 100 billion RMB Naturally occurring every 400 year What about the future? Madrid Rome

26 Stott et al. (2004) Temperature anomaly ( ) ( C) Year

27 Stott et al. (2004) Temperature anomaly ( ) ( C) Are we prepared? Year

28 Major Rivers in China are oriented East-West, as are the major weather systems Yellow River Yangtze River

29 Dried-up days observed in Li-Jin Station of the Yellow River ( ) from Source: Tianjun Nansen Zhou Center, Bergen, Norway I I I I I 君不见黄河之水天上来, 奔流到海不复回 ( 李白 )

30 Sea level Foto: Jan M. Lillebø, Bergens Tidende

31 Muir Glacier, Alaska August 1941 August 2004 Many examples

32 Glaciers as fresh water source Glacier in the Khangschung walley E of Mt Everest, Tibet Photo 25 July 2005 by Harry Jans (from John Birks)

33 Estimated global mean sea level change (cm) IPCC (2007): Up to 50+ cm A2 A1B B1 Based on Rahmstorf (2006)

34 Estimated global mean sea level change (cm) A2 A1B B1 Between cm Based on Rahmstorf (2006)

35 Sea level

36 Oceanic uptake of man-made CO 2 (for ) 283 Gt C 58 % Ocean uptake of CO 2 leads to reduced ph-value - throughout the world oceans - and particularly in cold waters Poorly known - but potentially severe - implications for the marine ecosystems Lowered ph will last >1000 years 42 % Marland et al, 2003 og Sabine et al., 2004

37 Outline 1) Global climate: Status 2) Climate change adaptation 3) Examples Typhoons & hurricanes Rain / drought Heatwaves Sea level rise Ocean acidification 4) Technology collaboration 5) Summary

38 Technology transfer north/south 1. Mitigation technologies (reduced emissions both in north and south) 2. Adaptation technologies 1. Is a part of the Kyoto protocol and Kyoto process 2. May become part of the post-kyoto negotiations in Copenhagen, December 2009 (e.g. China) 70% of accumulated GHG emissions originate from N-America + Europe + Japan Major emitters have a major responsibility

39 Technology transfer north/south 2. Mitigation technologies Reduced emissions absolutely needed both in developed and developing countries to limit global warming Leap-frogging; developing countries can base new system on lessons learned in developed countries Business opportunities; build-up climate friendly knowledge and technology for a global market Major challenge: Governmental and corporate collaboration (technology may exisit, but may not be used)

40 Technology transfer north/south 2. Adaptation technologies Water availability and quality Food availability and security Societal security, extreme weather Roads, buildings, communication, crops, slides, flooding,... Mapping Prevention Monitoring Forecasting Warning Rescuing Rebuilding

41 Summary Human activities do change climate Climate will continue to change irrespective of mitigation measures adaptation needed It s a climate catastrophy if China, India, Brazil and Mexico reach the fossil fuel-based energy consumption of N-America, Europe and Japan It s a climate catastrophy if the GHG-emissions from N-America, Europe and Japan continue without big reductions 50% global cut by 2050 is required to meet the two-degrees target; possibly 70-80% cut in the GHG emissions from developed countries Global emissions need to point down in 5-10 years from now