SH16 Western Ring Route Huruhuru Road Bridge to Westgate

Transcription

1 SH16 Western Ring Route Huruhuru Road Bridge to Westgate Assessment of Air Quality Effects

2 Revision History Revision Nº Prepared By Description Date A Mathew Noonan Draft report 23 March 2010 B Mathew Noonan Final draft (revised to include final alignment) C Mathew Noonan Final draft (incorporating comments) 14 May May 2010 D Mathew Noonan Final 30 July 2010 Document Acceptance Action Name Signed Date Prepared by Mathew Noonan 30 July 2010 Reviewed by Camilla Borger 30 July 2010 Approved by Brent Meekan 30 July 2010 on behalf of Beca Infrastructure Ltd Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page i

3 Table of Contents Executive Summary...v 1 Introduction Scope of the Assessment Project Description Description of the Proposed Development Assessment Matters Resource Management Act Proposed Auckland Regional Plan: Air, Land and Water Land Transport Management Act NZTA Environmental Plan Methodology Approach to Assessment of Effects Air Quality Standards and Guidelines Trigger Levels for Dust Application of Criteria to Receptors Receiving Environment Land Use and Topography Sensitive Receptors Existing Ambient Air Quality Background Pollutant Levels Nitrogen Dioxide Levels Near Motorways Passive Monitoring Near SH Background/Baseline Pollutant Levels Used in the Assessment Traffic Modelling and Vehicle Emission Rates Traffic Modelling Factors which Affect Vehicle Emission Rates Forecast Traffic Volumes Forecast Emission Rates Dispersion Modelling Choice of Dispersion Model Modelled Emission Sources Configuration Options Receptor Grids Meteorological Inputs Assessment of Nitrogen Dioxide Model Uncertainties Assessment of Effects...44 Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page i

4 9.1 Predicted Pollutant Concentrations in the Residential Areas to the North and South of the Royal Road interchange Predicted Pollutant Concentrations near the Royal Road Interchange Effects Assessment: Construction Activities Introduction Dust Generation during Construction Factors Influencing Dust Generation Dust Mitigation and Management Dust Monitoring Vehicle Exhaust Emissions Assessment of Effects Summary and Conclusions References...68 List of Figures Figure 1. The Proposed Widening of State Highway 16 near the Royal Road Interchange (Courtesy of Aurecon/NZTA)...4 Figure 2. Location of specific high sensitivity receptors Figure 3. Locations of Passive NO 2 & BTEX Monitoring Sites near the project area Figure 4. Average passive sampler NO 2 concentrations with distance from SH Figure 5. Relationship between yearly 99.9 percentile 1-hour average and annual average NO 2 concentrations at Auckland monitoring sites (Data courtesy of ARC) Figure 6. Relationship between yearly maximum 24-hour average and annual average NO 2 concentrations at Auckland monitoring sites (Data courtesy of ARC) Figure 7. Location of dispersion modelling line sources used to in residential areas to the south of the Royal Road interchange Figure 8. Location of dispersion modelling line sources used to in residential areas to the north of the Royal Road interchange Figure 9. Location of dispersion modelling line sources used to in near the Royal Road interchange Figure 10. Wind speed and wind direction distributions for the AUSROADS meteorological input file for List of Tables Table 1. Summary of Emission Scenario Assumptions...9 Table 2. Relevant National Environmental Standards Table 3. WHO Air Quality Guidelines Table 4. Relevant Ambient Air Quality Guidelines and Auckland Regional Air Quality Targets Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page ii

5 Table 5. Recommended Trigger Levels for Deposited and Suspended Particulate (MfE, 2001) Table 6. Summary of 24-hour average PM 10 concentrations (µg/m 3 ) at the ARC Henderson ambient air monitoring station (Monitoring data courtesy of the ARC) Table 7. Summary of 99.9 percentile 1-hour average and maximum 8-hour average CO concentrations (mg/m 3 ) at the ARC Henderson ambient air monitoring station (Monitoring data courtesy of the ARC) Table 8. Summary of 99.9 percentile 1-hour average, maximum 24 -hour average and annual average NO 2 concentrations (µg/m 3 ) at the ARC Henderson ambient air monitoring station (Monitoring data courtesy of the ARC) Table 9. Summary of 24-hour PM 2.5 monitoring data at Kingsland, Penrose and Takapuna (data courtesy of ARC) Table 10. Summary of 99.9 percentile 1-hour average, maximum 24 -hour average and annual average NO 2 concentrations (µg/m 3 ) at the ARC Takapuna and Penrose ambient air monitoring stations (Monitoring data courtesy of the ARC) Table 11. Passive NO 2 Monitoring Results Table 12 - NO 2 Monitoring at Henderson Intermediate School Table 13. Passive Benzene Monitoring Results Table 14. Summary of estimated worst case background PM 10, PM 2.5, NO 2, CO, and benzene pollutant levels Table 15. Predicted AM Peak, PM Peak and IP average hourly traffic volumes (vehicles) and Average Annual Daily Traffic (vehicles/day) volumes for an average weekday Table 16. Summary of predicted PM 10 emission rates (g/km-hour) Table 17. Summary of predicted CO emission rates (g/km-hour) Table 18. Summary of predicted NO X emission rates (g/km-hour) Table 19. Summary of predicted benzene emission rates (g/km-hour) Table 20. Predicted maximum 8-hour CO concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16 in residential areas north and south of the Royal Road interchange (mg/m 3 ) Table 21. Predicted maximum 99.9 percentile 1-hour CO concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16 in residential areas north and south of the Royal Road interchange (mg/m 3 ) Table 22. Predicted maximum 24-hour average PM 10 concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16 in residential areas south of the Royal Road interchange (µg/m 3 ) Table 23. Predicted maximum annual average PM 10 concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16 in residential areas near the north and south of the Royal Road interchange (µg/m 3 ) Table 24. Predicted maximum 24-hour average PM 2.5 concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16 in residential areas to the north and south of the Royal Road interchange (µg/m 3 ) Table 25. Predicted maximum contribution to 99.9 percentile 1-hour average NO X concentrations and differences in NO 2 concentrations compared to 2006 levels associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16 in residential areas to the north and south of the Royal Road interchange (µg/m 3 ) Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page iii

6 Table 26. Predicted maximum contribution to 24-hour average NO X concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16 in residential areas to the north and south of the Royal Road interchange (µg/m 3 ) Table 27. Predicted maximum annual average benzene concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16 in residential areas to the north and south of the Royal Road interchange (µg/m 3 ) Table 28. Predicted maximum 8-hour CO concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16, Royal Road, and Makora Road (mg/m 3 ) Table 29. Predicted maximum 99.9 percentile 1-hour CO concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16, Royal Road, and Makora Road (mg/m 3 ) Table 30. Predicted maximum 24-hour average PM 10 concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16, Royal Road, and Makora Road (µg/m 3 ) Table 31. Predicted maximum annual average PM 10 concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16, Makora Road and Royal Road (µg/m 3 ) Table 32. Predicted maximum 24-hour average PM 2.5 concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16, Makora Road, and Royal Road (µg/m 3 ) Table 33. Predicted maximum 99.9 percentile 1-hour average NO X concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16, Makora Road, and Royal Road (µg/m 3 ) Table 34. Predicted maximum 24-hour average NO X concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16, Makora Road and Royal Road (µg/m 3 ) Table 35. Predicted maximum annual benzene concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16, Royal Road, and Makora Road (µg/m 3 ) Table 36. Dust Monitoring Programme Appendices Appendix 1 Modelled Diurnal Traffic Volumes and Emission Rates Appendix 2 Sample AUSROADS Output Files Appendix 3 Assessment of Nitrogen Dioxide Appendix 4 Location Map Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page iv

7 Executive Summary The New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) is proposing to widen State Highway 16 (SH16) between the Huruhuru Road Bridge and Hobsonville interchange as part of the larger Western Ring Route development. The project will increase the number of lanes from the current four to six and will involve the redevelopment of the Royal Road interchange, including the extension of the southbound on-ramp, the northbound off-ramp and the reconstruction of the Royal Road bridge. The developments are expected to help reduce existing and future congestion. In support of an application for land designation under the Resource Management Act 1991 (RMA), the NZTA has commissioned Beca Infrastructure Limited (Beca) to assess the potential air quality impact associated with the proposed widening of SH16. In undertaking this assessment, Beca has followed the procedures outlined in the Ministry for the Environment s Good Practice Guide for Assessing Discharges to Air from Land Transport (2008) and the draft NZTA Guideline for Producing Air Quality Assessments for State Highway Projects (2009). The assessment of air quality impacts has used air dispersion modelling techniques to predict air pollutant level in areas within 200m of SH16, taking into account the existing air quality near the motorway. The dispersion model inputs of vehicle emission rates and traffic volumes have been derived using traffic modelling and the Auckland Regional Council s (ARC) VEPM emission factors. Potential adverse effects have been assessed by comparing predictions against relevant health based National Environmental Standards (AQNES), New Zealand Ambient Air Quality Guidelines and Auckland Regional Air Quality Targets (ARAQT). The potential air quality impacts have been predicted for a base year of 2006 and for the year 2026 by which time the proposed project is expected to have been completed. Two emission scenarios have been considered for 2026, a Do Minimum (i.e. the project not being undertaken) and the NZTA proposed development option ( with project ). The assessment has focused on the relative impacts between the two 2026 emission scenarios compared to existing air quality, which is represented by the 2006 emission scenario. The potential effects of carbon monoxide (CO), fine particles (PM 10 and PM 2.5.), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) and benzene have been considered in the assessment. Conservative background levels of CO, PM 10 and NO 2 have been derived using ambient air quality data collected at the ARC s Henderson monitoring station and from the NZTA passive sampling programme, while background benzene concentrations have been derived from the results of the NZTA passive sampling programme. A background PM 2.5 concentration has been estimated from concentrations recorded at the ARC s Kingsland, Penrose and Takapuna monitoring stations. Passive NO 2 monitoring conducted near SH16 and continuous NO 2 monitoring at the ARC s Henderson, Takapuna and Penrose monitoring sites indicate that existing NO 2 levels near SH16 are unlikely to exceed existing air quality standards and targets. The results indicate that higher NO 2 concentrations occur near intersections close to the Royal Road interchange but NO 2 levels are still predicted to be lower than the AQNES and ARAQT. Land use in the area surrounding the project area is generally residential in nature and therefore considered to be of a high sensitivity to the potential effects of the project. Ground level pollutant concentrations have been predicted using the Victorian EPA AUSROADS dispersion model for three areas in the vicinity of SH16. These are: the residential properties between the Huruhuru Road Bridge and the Royal Road interchange (South residential area) where SH16 traffic flows are highest; Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page v

8 the residential properties between Royal Road and Hobsonville Road interchange (North residential area ); and the Royal Road Primary and Preschool, and residential properties located near the Royal Road interchange (Interchange area). Predicted air pollutant levels at receptors in the interchange area have considered the cumulative impact of vehicle emissions on Royal Road and Makora Road in addition to SH16. Cumulative PM 10, PM 2.5, CO, NO 2, and benzene concentrations for each of the modelled emission scenarios are predicted to be less than the AQNES and ARAQT criteria levels in all three of the areas considered in this assessment. Pollutant concentrations in 2026 are predicted to be similar to or lower than 2006 levels for both the do minimum and with project emission scenarios. Slightly greater decreases in concentrations are predicted for the do minimum emission scenario. Based on the dispersion modelling results, the widening on the motorway is predicted to have a minimal effect on air quality near SH16. Dust will also be generated during the construction phase of the project. A number of procedures are available to help reduce the generation of dust and mitigate potential impacts. A monitoring programme is recommended, which should form the basis of a Construction Environmental Management Plan (CEMP) for the project. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page vi

9 1 Introduction The New Zealand Transport Agency (NZTA) is proposing to widen State Highway 16 (SH16) between the Huruhuru Road Bridge and Hobsonville Road interchange as part of the larger Western Ring Route development. The project will increase the number of lanes from the current four to six and will involve a redevelopment of the Royal Road interchange. This section of motorway and areas that immediately surround the motorway is defined as the project area in this report. In support of an application for land designation under the Resource Management Act (RMA), the NZTA has commissioned Beca Infrastructure Limited (Beca) to assess the potential air quality impact associated with the proposed widening of SH Scope of the Assessment The pollutants of most concern associated with vehicle emissions and which may have adverse health effects on the surrounding community are carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), inhalable particulate matter (PM 10 and PM 2.5 ) and benzene. Emissions of these pollutants will vary over time, depending on changes in traffic volumes, the age and performance of the vehicle fleet in addition to changes in the roading network. The potential air quality impacts are assessed in this report using air pollutant dispersion modelling techniques in conjunction with measured ambient air quality monitoring data. The assessment is equivalent to a Tier 3 Assessment described in the Ministry for Environment s (MfE) Good Practice Guide for Assessing Discharges to Air from Land Transport (MfE, 2008) (MfE Transport GPG) and the draft NZTA Guideline for Producing Air Quality Assessments for State Highway Projects (NZTA, 2009b) (draft NZTA Air Quality Guidance). Ground level pollutant concentrations have been predicted using the Victorian Environmental Protection Agency (Vic EPA) AUSROADS dispersion model. The model has been run using a meteorological input file for the year 2007 representative of local dispersion conditions, sourced from input files supplied by the Auckland Regional Council (ARC). Predicted concentrations have been compared against the relevant National Environmental Standards (AQNES) for air quality, New Zealand Ambient Air Quality Guidelines (AAQG) (MfE, 2002), and the ARC s Regional Air Quality Targets (ARAQT). The assessment has focused on the potential impact on residential and sensitive receptors located near to the motorway, where the public can be expected to be exposed for extended periods of the time or may be repeatedly exposed to short periods of high concentrations. Measured ambient air quality data collected from passive and instrumental monitoring stations have been used to assess the contribution from background emission sources and also to estimate current baseline air pollutant levels near the highway. The assessment characterises the relative impact that the development option is likely to have on future air pollutant levels taking into account changes over time in the composition and performance of the vehicle fleet and predicted traffic volumes. In the report, potential air quality impacts have been predicted for a base year of 2006 and for year For the year 2026, two emission scenarios have considered: a Do Minimum and the NZTA proposed development option ( with project ). The with project emission scenario takes into account proposed developments of the Western Ring Route that are proposed to occur outside of the project area, for instance the development of the Waterview Connection and the Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 1

10 redevelopment of the Lincoln interchange. The emission rates for each of the emission scenarios have been derived by applying the Auckland Regional Council s (ARC) VEPM (Vehicle Emission Prediction model) emission factors to predicted traffic flows. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 2

11 2 Project Description 2.1 Description of the Proposed Development The upgrade of the existing Motorway between the Huruhuru Road Bridge and Westgate forms part of the Western Ring Route, one of NZ Transport Agency s (NZTA) s Roads of National Significance (RONS). The Project encompasses almost 1.8km of carriageway widening and 2.7km of new offroad cycleway, including up-grades to the Royal Road Interchange and the replacement of the existing Royal Road Bridge. The existing motorway consists of a divided carriageway with two general purpose 3.5m wide traffic lanes in each direction, and a 3m wide grassed/vegetated median dividing the two carriageways. This project aims to widen the motorway to three general-purpose 3.5m wide traffic lanes with a 3.5m bus shoulder in each direction, and a 3.0m wide cycleway running along the westbound carriageway. The overall motorway footprint is expected to increase in width varying between approximately 10 to 14m over the project area. (Excluding any cut/fill earthworks) The existing Royal Road Interchange layout will be upgraded and improved to meet predicted future traffic growth demands, whilst improving the safe operation of the interchange. This interchange gives access to Massey East and West and is currently operating near capacity causing congestion in both the AM and PM peak travel times. The improvements include increasing the ramp length for the Eastbound On and Off-Ramp to cater for the future traffic demands to address road safety concerns with the current short off-ramp length whilst updating the layout to meet current geometry design guidelines. Bridge duplication works and new lane configurations will increase the existing capacity of Royal Road, with the existing bridge replaced to improve the vertical clearance to the motorway carriageway below in line with similar improvements currently proposed to the preceding SH16 bridges. Figure 1 shows the proposed development. The scope of this assessment is indicated in the figure by the two red vertical lines crossing SH16 after Huruhuru Road and before the Hobsonville Road interchange. A general location map is attached at Appendix 4. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 3

12 Figure 1. The Proposed Widening of State Highway 16 near the Royal Road Interchange (Courtesy of Aurecon/NZTA) Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 4

13 3 Assessment Matters 3.1 Resource Management Act 1991 The purpose and principles of the Resource Management Act 1991 (RMA) are set out in Sections 5 to 8 of that Act. Of particular relevance to the assessment of effects of discharges into air from land transport activities are Sections 5(1) and 5(2)(c), which state: (1) The purpose of this Act is to promote the sustainable management of natural and physical resources (2) In this Act, sustainable means managing the use, development and protection of natural and physical resources in a way, or at a rate, which enables people and communities to provide for their social, economic and cultural wellbeing and for their health and safety while (c) Avoiding, remedying or mitigating any adverse effects of activities on the environment. Air is one such natural resource. Section 7 of the RMA requires consent authorities to give particular regard to those matters listed in the section. In the case of discharges into air from this particular proposal the following matters are considered relevant: maintenance and enhancement of amenity values and maintenance and enhancement of the quality of the environment. In the context of this assessment, amenity values may be affected by discharges of construction dust; while the quality of the environment is described in the context of the effects of discharges from motor vehicles on human health. Effects on the environment that are not associated with the direct effects of vehicle exhaust emissions on human health or with discharges of dust are outside the scope of this report. Effects on amenity values due to dust discharges are considered in Section 10 of this report, while other effects on human health are considered in Section 9. The hierarchy of considerations under the RMA includes standards, policy statements and plans prepared under the RMA. In relation to this assessment, the most relevant are the National Air Quality Standards, guidelines and regional targets (discussed further in Section 4.1.2). Discharges of contaminants into air are specifically addressed in section 15 of the RMA. Section 15(2) states: No person may discharge any contaminant into the air, or into or onto land, from (a) (b) Any place; or Any other source, whether moveable or not, in a manner that contravenes a rule in a regional plan or proposed regional plan unless the discharge is expressly allowed by a resource consent[, or regulations,] or allowed by section 83H[20A] (certain existing lawful activities allowed). The relevant regional plan requirements as they relate to air discharges are described in more detail below. 3.2 Proposed Auckland Regional Plan: Air, Land and Water The PARP: ALW was first notified in October Following consideration of submissions, Decision Notices were issued on 8 October 2004 and the PARP: ALW was updated to include the Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 5

14 decisions on submissions. The text of the 2004 Decision Notices version was amended in June 2005 to highlight those decisions that had been appealed and has been revised several times since then to incorporate the settlement of those appeals, most recently in November It is the text of the November 2009 version that is referenced in this document. Regional Rules Vehicle exhaust emissions are specifically provided for in Rule 4.5.3, which states: The discharge of contaminants into air from motor vehicle, aircraft, train, vessel and lawnmower engines including those located on industrial or trade premises is a Permitted Activity. Therefore, resource consent is not required for the discharge of contaminants into air from vehicles that may utilise the upgraded SH16. There are no rules in any regional plan that specifically address discharges of contaminants into air from construction activities. 3.3 Land Transport Management Act Several pieces of legislation guide land transport planning. The statutory framework for land use planning is largely contained within the Resource Management Act The purpose of the RMA is to promote the sustainable management of natural and physical resources. The Land Transport Management Act 2003 (LTMA) sets out requirements for the operation, development and funding of the land transport system. In the context of this proposal, Section 96 of the LTMA sets out the operating principles of the NZTA. The specific principle that applies to this assessment is set out in Section 96(a)(i), as follows: (1) In meeting its objective and undertaking its functions, the [NZTA] must (a) exhibit a sense of social and environmental responsibility, which includes (i) avoiding, to the extent reasonable in the circumstances, adverse effects on the environment; and 3.4 NZTA Environmental Plan In order to fulfil its obligations under Section 1(a)(i) of the LTMA, where the NZTA (formerly Transit New Zealand) seeks a new or altered designation, it must take into account any air quality effects and the requirements of the National Environmental Standard (AQNES) for air quality. In 2004, Transit New Zealand (the predecessor of the NZTA) prepared an Environmental Plan, which set out how the principles of the LTMA would be exercised in practice. This Environmental Plan was reissued as Version 2 in Section 2.2 of the Transit New Zealand Environmental Plan addresses air quality issues and sets out the following objectives: A1 Understand the contribution of vehicle traffic to air quality. A2 A3 Ensure new state highway projects do not directly cause national environmental standards for ambient air quality to be exceeded. Contribute to reducing emissions where the state highway network is a significant source of exceedances of national ambient air quality standards. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 6

15 A number of methods are specified to give effect to these objectives, for example: Route Selection Investigate, consider and prioritise route options for new or upgraded sections of state highways that avoid increasing the exposure of sensitive receivers to poor air quality. Assessment of Effects Assess the effects on local air quality of new or improved sections of state highways in accordance with appropriate New Zealand and overseas guidance. Design Approach In situations where vehicles are likely to be a significant source of emissions and cause of poor air quality, design new or upgraded state highways in order to remedy and/or mitigate adverse effects. Consider design measures to reduce vehicle emissions and avoid exposure to poor air quality, for example, by: ensuring that vehicle emissions from road tunnels are appropriately controlled, dispersed and diluted. Construction Dust and Air Pollution Ensure Construction Management Plans, or equivalent, include an air quality management component. These should detail consultant and contractor obligations during the construction phase in relation to: monitoring and reporting requirements including results of risk assessments and any air pollution measurements, for example in relation to dust and/or odour; identifying appropriate dust and air pollution mitigation measures to be implemented; and procedures for maintaining contact with stakeholders and managing dust and air pollution complaints. This assessment of effects is intended to fulfil the requirements of the above mentioned objectives, in particular objective A2, in the context of the proposed widening of SH16. In support of this assessment (and related to objective A1), an air quality monitoring program has been undertaken in the area of this Project and also the wider Western Ring Route, including two continuous air quality monitoring stations (monitoring oxides of nitrogen, carbon monoxide, fine particulate matter and meteorology) and a network of passive nitrogen dioxide samplers. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 7

16 4 Methodology The MfE Transport GPG (MfE, 2008) and the draft NZTA Air Quality Guidance (NTA, 2009b) recommend a tiered approach to the assessment of vehicle exhaust emissions from road projects, as follows: Tier 1: preliminary assessment, to identify whether there are likely to be significant air quality effects Tier 2: screening assessment, using straightforward dispersion modelling techniques Tier 3: full assessment, with increased complexity in both traffic emission and dispersion modelling and reliance on site specific data. The assessment reported here represents a Tier 3 assessment. The aim of this technical assessment is to assess the: potential effects of exhaust emissions on human health and the environment from vehicles using the widened SH16; and the likely effects of discharges of dust from the construction of the project on the environment. The bulk of this report focuses on the technical assessment of the effects of vehicle exhaust emissions. The effects of discharges of construction dust are addressed in Section 10 of this report. The assessment has focused on determining the relative impact the development will have on the existing air quality at sensitive receptors and areas most impacted by vehicles emissions. 4.1 Approach to Assessment of Effects Assessment of vehicle emissions The effects of vehicle exhaust emissions are dependent upon a number of factors, including: mass emission rates of various contaminants, meteorology, background concentrations and the sensitivity of the receiving environment. The mass emission rates for different contaminants are in turn dependent on a range of factors, including: traffic volumes, vehicle speed, vehicle type and age and fuel composition. The assessment of air quality impact has used air dispersion modelling techniques to predict NO 2 CO, PM 10, PM 2.5 and benzene air pollutant levels in areas within 200m of SH16 (see Section 8). Beyond 200m the contribution from the motorway to ambient air pollutants is expected to be minimal since air pollutant levels decrease rapidly (approximate exponentially) with distance from road sources. The dispersion model inputs of vehicle emission rates and traffic volumes have been derived using traffic modelling and the ARC VEPM emission factors (see Section 7). To assess potential adverse effects, the predicted ground level concentrations of contaminants are then assessed against relevant health based New Zealand air quality standards, guidelines and targets (see Section 4.2). Comparisons against the air quality criteria have taken into consideration the sensitivity of the receiving environment (refer to Section 5) and existing background pollutant levels (refer to Section 6). A total of three traffic scenarios have been assessed, as follows: Current (i.e. 2006) used to provide a baseline against which to compare future effects both with and without the widening of SH16. Traffic flow predictions for 2006 have been used in this Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 8

17 assessment, based on 2006 Census data, fully validated against a statistical analysis of traffic flows for 2006 (Beca, 2010b) With Project (2026 WP) representative of the year of opening of the SH16 widening between the Huruhuru Road Bridge and the Hobsonville interchange. This includes traffic flows and fleet composition predicted for 2016 (and therefore includes the impact on traffic flows of other roading projects in the region that are scheduled for completion by 2016) Do Minimum (2026 DM) for comparison with the 2026 With Project scenario; this differs from the 2016 With Project scenario in that it assumes, in addition to SH16 not being widened, other associated projects (for example the Waterview Connection) have also not been completed, including the development and realignment of the Lincoln Road interchange. The 2026 With Project option includes the effects of the widening of SH16 between Lincoln Rd and the Te Atatu interchanges (including Henderson Creek Bridge) and realignment of the interchanges, which is forecast to be completed by The 2026 Do Minimum option does not incorporate the effects of these changes to SH16. A summary of modelled emission scenarios assumptions is presented in Table 1. Emission Scenario Table 1. Summary of Emission Scenario Assumptions Total Number of Northbound and Southbound Lanes Te Atatu Rd to Lincoln Road Lincoln Road to Royal Road Development of Royal Road Interchange No 2026 Do Minimum 4 4 No 2026 With Project 6 6 Yes The air quality assessment has focused on the relative impact that the two 2026 emission scenarios ( with project and do minimum ) are predicted to have on air quality in the project area relative to existing air pollutant levels. Existing air quality levels have been assessed based on the 2006 emission scenario. Predicted ground level concentrations of contaminants for the 2006 and 2026 emission scenarios are considered in Section 8 and the effects of these contaminants on human health are considered in detail in Section Assessment of Construction Dust Emissions The assessment of construction dust is based on reviewing the proposed construction methodology to identify dust generating activities and assessing the proximity of these activities to residential properties and other sensitive receptors. Having identified these locations, mitigation measures are recommended for managing and minimising the impacts of dust emissions. The ARC in TP152 (ARC, 2002) does not recommend modelling of dust effects for large area sources (e.g. quarries, earthwork sites and unpaved surfaces). Rather than spending considerable time and effort on predicting the possible off site effects, it is considered more appropriate to design adequate and appropriate dust control measures in line with the best practicable option (BPO). Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 9

18 4.2 Air Quality Standards and Guidelines Air quality standards and guidelines are used to assess the potential for ambient air quality to give rise to adverse health or nuisance effects. The MfE Transport GPG recommends the following order of precedence when selecting suitable assessment criteria: New Zealand National Environmental Standards New Zealand Ambient Air Quality Guidelines Regional Air Quality Targets. For the contaminants being considered within this assessment, relevant assessment criteria are discussed in this section, while the applicability of those criteria to different receptors is discussed in Section 4.3. Relevant National Environmental Standards are specified in the Resource Management (National Environmental Standards Relating to Certain Air Pollutants, Dioxins and Other Toxics) Regulations 2004 (as amended) (AQNES) and are summarised in Table 2. The MfE has published a set of Ambient Air Quality Guidelines (AAQG), which were most recently updated in 2002 (MfE, 2002). The Auckland Regional Council (ARC) has adopted those guideline values that have not been superseded by the AQNES as Regional Air Quality Targets (ARAQT), which are set out in the Proposed Auckland Regional Plan: Air, Land and Water (2009). The AAQG and ARAQT that are relevant to this assessment are summarised in Table 4. Table 2. Relevant National Environmental Standards Pollutant Criteria level Averaging time Allowable exceedances per year Nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) 200 µg/m 3 1-hour 9 Carbon monoxide (CO) 10 mg/m 3 8-hours (rolling) 1 Inhalable particulate (PM 10 ) 50 µg/m 3 24-hours 1 In addition, there are a number of relevant international guidelines, particularly those promulgated by the World Health Organisation (WHO) 1 that must be considered. The WHO guideline that is applicable to this assessment is summarised in Table 3. Table 3. WHO Air Quality Guidelines Pollutant Threshold Concentration (μg/m 3 ) Averaging period Nitrogen dioxide 40 μg/m 3 Annual Table 4. Relevant Ambient Air Quality Guidelines and Auckland Regional Air Quality Targets 1 Air Quality Guidelines Global Update 2005, World Health Organisation Regional Office for Europe Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 10

19 Pollutant Criteria level Averaging time Allowable exceedances per year Nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) 100 µg/m 3 24-hours N/A Carbon monoxide (CO) 30 mg/m 3 1-hour N/A Inhalable particulate (PM 10 ) 20 µg/m 3 annual N/A Inhalable particulate (PM 2.5 ) 25 µg/m 3 24-hours N/A Benzene 3.6 µg/m 3 annual N/A The AQNES are intended to provide for the protection of human health and have an enforceable legal status. The AAQG are intended to promote sustainable management of the air resource. The PARP: ALW states that the aim of the ARAQT is to maintain air quality in areas of the Auckland Region where it is already good, and enhance air quality in areas of the Auckland Region where it is degraded or unacceptable. The AQNES came into effect in 2005 and are defined for five common criteria air pollutants. The AQNES apply nationally everywhere people may be exposed in the open air, except in areas to which a resource consent applies for the discharge of that contaminant. The standards do not apply inside enclosed spaces such as houses, tunnels or vehicles. The AQNES are not designed to be air dispersion modelling criteria. Compliance is determined by the evaluation of ambient monitoring records as opposed to the direct comparison of predicted dispersion model concentrations against the AQNES threshold concentrations. However, the Updated Users Guide to Resource Management (National Environmental Standards Relating to Certain Air Pollutants, Dioxins and Other Toxics) Regulations 2004 (MfE, 2005) indicates that predictive air dispersion modelling is an appropriate method for estimating the contribution of defined emission sources to air pollutant level, when used in accordance with the Good Practice Guide to Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling (MfE, 2004). MfE (2005) also provides guidance with respect to the application of the AQNES in relation to land designations, as follows: For new designations after 1 September 2005, territorial authorities and/or requiring authorities should consider the ambient air quality standards when weighing up whether new designations, or alterations to existing designations, meet the purposes of the RMA (eg, safeguarding the life-supporting capacity of air). Territorial authorities will need to take into account the potential impacts of a new designation on air quality in the airshed, and the subsequent impact upon their ability to issue future resource consents within that airshed. 4.3 Trigger Levels for Dust There are no National Environmental Standards, Air Quality Guidelines or Regional Air Quality Guidelines for dust, other than particulate matter with a diameter greater than 10µm. A number of trigger levels are contained in the Good practice guide for assessing and managing the environmental effects of dust emissions (MfE Dust GPG) (MfE, 2001), which are summarised in Table 5. Table 5 presents three different trigger levels for total suspended particulate (TSP), depending on the sensitivity of the receiving environment. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 11

20 Table 5. Recommended Trigger Levels for Deposited and Suspended Particulate (MfE, 2001) Pollutant Trigger Level Averaging period Applicability Deposited dust 4 g/m 2 /30 days 30 days All Areas Total Suspended Particulate 80 μg/m μg/m μg/m 3 24-hour 24-hour 24-hour Highly sensitive areas Moderately sensitive areas Insensitive areas The ARC also includes a narrative standard for dust in the PARP: ALW and in Technical Publication 152 Assessing Discharges of Contaminants into Air Draft (TP152) (ARC, 2002), as follows: That beyond the boundary of the premise where the activity is being undertaken there shall be no noxious, dangerous, offensive or objectionable dust, particulate, smoke or ash (ARC, 2002) The trigger levels presented in Table 5 have not been used as assessment criteria in this document as no modelling has been carried out, however, as discussed in section 10 of this report, a trigger value for TSP is appropriate for managing the effects of dust once construction of the project has commenced. 4.4 Application of Criteria to Receptors The MfE Transport GPG (MfE, 2008, p30) indicates that the ambient air quality standards should apply where people would reasonably be exposed for the standard s averaging period. Specific guidance on the applicability of the AQNES is provided in MfE, 2008, as follows: Averaging period Locations where assessment against the Standards should apply 1 hour This includes any outdoor areas where the public might reasonably be expected to spend one hour or longer, including pavements in shopping streets, as well as facades of any building where the public might reasonably be expected to spend one hour or longer. 24 hours and 8 hours This includes all outdoor locations where members of the public might be regularly exposed (e.g., residential gardens) as well as facades of residential properties, schools, hospitals, libraries, etc. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 12

21 5 Receiving Environment 5.1 Land Use and Topography Land use in the area surrounding the Royal Road interchange is predominantly residential in nature. Other land uses include small commercial areas located on Triangle Road between Huruhuru Road and the Royal Road interchange, and the Royal Road shopping centre, which is located on the corner of Royal Road and Moire Road, approximately 200m to the east of the Royal Road interchange. Between the Royal Road and Hobsonville Road interchanges much of the land to the west of SH16 is undeveloped. Most of this area is zoned in the Waitakere City Council district plan as Living Environment, with a small area adjacent to SH16 at the northern end of the project area zoned as Working Environment ; therefore this area will in future include land of a comparable sensitivity to the existing residential areas located on the eastern side of the motorway. The project area ends to the south of the Westgate Shopping Centre. Vehicle emissions from this section of the motorway considered in the project are likely to have much less impact on this area compared to emissions from other roadway sources. The air quality impact of the project in these areas has therefore not been directly assessed. Immediately to the west of the Royal Road interchange s southbound on-ramp is a badminton club. This facility is unlikely to be in use during the morning peak traffic period when the on-ramp is heavily used. The west-bound off ramp is adjacent to residential areas. The MfE Transport GPG (MfE, 2008) identifies commercial land uses as being of medium to high sensitivity and residential areas as being high sensitivity. In residential areas people may be present at all times of the day and night, and could also include members of the public who are more sensitive to air pollutants, such as the young and elderly. The Royal Road interchange is located in a comparatively open and rolling landscape. The ground between Huruhuru Creek and the Royal Road interchange gradually rises before declining and rising again toward the Huruhuru Road Bridge. On either side of the Royal Road interchange the ground level is approximately m higher than the highway. Similarly areas of residential houses to the east of SH16 on Cedar Heights Avenue are approximately 10-15m higher than the motorway. Building structures which border the road are comparatively low or located some distance from the sides of the highway so that recirculation effects associated with urban canyons are not expected to influence pollutant dispersion. 5.2 Sensitive Receptors In addition to residential areas, other high sensitivity receptors include locations where people with a higher than average susceptibility to the effects of air pollution are likely to be found for an hour or more. In practice such sensitive receptors are generally considered to include the following (NZTA, 2009b; MfE, 2008): early childhood education centres schools hospitals medical clinics residential care homes. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 13

22 Identified sensitive receptors that are located near the assessed section of SH16 are shown in Figure 2. A general location map with street names is also attached at Appendix 4.The blue diamonds correspond to early childhood education and day care centres, while the red circles corresponds to nearby schools and the green cross corresponds to a rest home. The Royal Road Primary School and Royal Road Preschool are located at the same address. The schools are the closest sensitive receptors to SH16 and have the greatest potential to be impacted either directly by emissions from the motorway or indirectly by emissions from traffic exiting or entering the Royal Road On-ramp and Off-ramp Figure 2. Location of specific high sensitivity receptors The closest section of school playing fields is located approximately 30m from the edge of SH16. The closest school building is located approximately 65m from the motorway. The contribution to air pollutant level from the motorway is likely to be relatively low due to the distances that separate the highway from the school. However, the school is also located adjacent to the lighted intersection of Makora Road and Royal Road, where comparatively high traffic volumes occur in the morning and evening as vehicles turn onto or off the motorway on-ramp and off-ramp. Children would most likely only be present at the school during the end of the morning peak period. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 14

23 Other sensitive receptors include the Royal Height s Rest Home located on Royal Road and approximately 375m to the east of SH16. Emissions from vehicles travelling on the motorway are unlikely to have a significant effect on air pollutant levels at the rest home. However, the residents may be indirectly impacted by the emissions from vehicles on Royal Road associated with the SH16 on-ramp and off-ramp, and feeder road traffic. The most significant changes in existing air quality arising from the proposed interchange development and road widening are likely to occur in residential areas that border the highway, due to increased traffic flows and the increased number of lanes. At these residential properties it is reasonable to expect that individuals could be exposed to high pollutant concentrations over both short and long averaging periods and include members of the population who may be sensitive to high air pollutant levels. For the assessment, ground level pollutant concentrations have been predicted using dispersion modelling techniques at three general locations; Residential properties on both sides of SH16 to the south of the Royal Road interchange Residential properties on both sides of SH16 to the north of the Royal Road interchange The Royal Road Primary and Preschool, and residents living near the interchange. Changes in air pollutant levels at the Royal Road Primary School and Preschool have been considered for the motorway in combination with traffic on Royal Road and Makora Road. Both Makora Road and Royal Road feed into or from SH16. Changes in SH16 traffic volumes therefore also impact on vehicles emissions from these roads. Because of the location of the Royal Road Primary School and Preschool adjacent to Royal Road it is important to consider the cumulative effect that the proposed development will have on air quality. Other residential properties located along Royal Road and roads feeding into the interchange may also be impacted by the development due to increased traffic volume and or queuing effects. These areas have been assessed by considering the predicted change in total vehicle volumes on Royal Road for each of the five emission scenarios considered (refer to Section 7.4.8) and reporting recorded NO 2 concentrations near the intersection of Royal Road and Moire Road, and the Royal Road On-ramp (refer to Section 6.3.1). Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 15

24 6 Existing Ambient Air Quality 6.1 Background Pollutant Levels Air quality is continuously monitored by various agencies, including the ARC, MfE and the NZTA, at a number of sites across metropolitan Auckland. The closest continuous monitoring site to the project area is operated by the ARC this station is located at Henderson Intermediate School on Lincoln Road, approximately 4 km south of the Royal Road interchange. This site measures CO, NO 2 (and other oxides of nitrogen) and PM 10 (refer to details below). The site is located adjacent to a busy 4 lane arterial road (Lincoln Road) and the school s pull-in parking bay. The surrounding land use is predominantly residential, but also includes commercial areas. Due to the proximity of the monitoring site to Lincoln Road and the parking bay, air pollutant concentrations recorded at the monitoring site are likely to provide a conservative assessment of background pollutant levels near the proposed project. PM 10 Particulate Recorded maximum, 2 nd highest and 24-hour average PM 10 concentrations for the years when the continuous beta-attenuation particulate monitor (BAM) was in operation are presented in Table 6. The highest 24-hour average PM 10 concentration of 125 µg/m 3 recorded at the monitoring site occurred on 08 January 2007, and is significantly higher than the maximum PM 10 concentrations recorded for any other year. On this occasion, maximum 1-hour average PM 10 concentrations during this period occurred during the middle of the day and are probably associated with an emission source that was located near to the monitoring site during the monitoring period. The recorded concentration does not appear to be representative of typical background pollutant levels. As a consequence this concentration has not been reported in Table 6. With the exception of this 24-hour period, PM 10 concentrations at Henderson have not exceeded the AQNES of 50 µg/m 3. The maximum 24-hour PM 10 concentrations in 2003 and 2004 are higher than other years by 5-10 µg/m 3. The average maximum 24-hour average concentrations can be expected to range between µg/m 3. Table 6. Summary of 24-hour average PM 10 concentrations (µg/m 3 ) at the ARC Henderson ambient air monitoring station (Monitoring data courtesy of the ARC) (µg/m 3 ) (µg/m 3 ) (µg/m 3 ) (µg/m 3 ) (µg/m 3 ) (µg/m 3 ) Maximum NR 33 2 nd Highest Average NR: not reported. See comments in text. Recorded annual average concentrations at the monitoring site for range between µg/m 3, which is 2-5 µg/m 3 lower than the annual average ARAQT of 20 µg/m 3. Peak PM 10 levels at the site tend to occur on winter evenings and are likely to be predominantly associated with residential home heating emissions. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 16

25 Carbon Monoxide Maximum 8-hour average and 99.9 percentile 1-hour average CO concentrations recorded at the Henderson monitoring site for the years are presented in Table 7 2. The monitoring data shows that recorded 99.9 percentile 1-hour averages and the maximum 8-hour average CO concentrations are significantly lower than the AQNES 8-hour average standard of 10 mg/m 3 and the ARAQT 1-hour target of 30 mg/m 3. The maximum 8-hour CO recorded during the monitoring period is 3.3 mg/m 3, or 33% of the AQNES. The maximum 99.9 percentile 1-hour average CO concentration is 5.1 mg/m 3 or 17% of the ARAQT. Both of these highest concentrations occurred during The monitoring data clearly indicates that current CO concentrations are significantly lower than air quality criteria levels. Table 7. Summary of 99.9 percentile 1-hour average and maximum 8-hour average CO concentrations (mg/m 3 ) at the ARC Henderson ambient air monitoring station * (mg/m 3 ) (mg/m 3 ) (mg/m 3 ) (mg/m 3 ) (mg/m 3 ) (mg/m 3 ) 99.9 percentile 1- hour average Maximum 8-hour average * Monitoring data courtesy of the ARC Nitrogen Dioxide Recorded 99.9 percentile 1-hour average and maximum 24-hour average NO 2 concentrations recorded at the Henderson monitoring site for the years are presented in Table 8. The monitoring data shows that recorded 99.9 percentile 1-hour average and maximum 24-hour average NO 2 concentrations are significantly lower than the AQNES 1-hour average standard of 200 µg/m 3 and the ARAQT 1-hour target of 100 µg/m 3. The monitoring data indicates that peak NO 2 concentrations at the Henderson monitoring site have tended to decrease since Table 8. Summary of 99.9 percentile 1-hour average, maximum 24 -hour average and annual average NO 2 concentrations (µg/m 3 ) at the ARC Henderson ambient air monitoring station * (µg/m 3 ) (µg/m 3 ) (µg/m 3 ) (µg/m 3 ) (µg/m 3 ) (µg/m 3 ) 99.9 percentile 1- hour average Maximum 24-hour average Annual Average * Monitoring data courtesy of the ARC 2 At the time of writing, CO concentrations recorded at the ARC s Henderson monitoring site in 2008 were not available. Therefore, CO concentrations recorded in 2002 have been included in Table 7 to provide at least six years historical data. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 17

26 PM 2.5 Particulate PM 2.5 concentrations are not currently recorded at the Henderson monitoring site. However, the ARC has conducted long term PM 2.5 monitoring at the urban Auckland Penrose (Gavin Street), Takapuna (Wairau Road) and Kingsland monitoring sites. The Takapuna and Penrose monitoring sites are both motorway influenced sites, while the Kingsland site is regarded as an urban residential site. The Penrose site is located in an industrial area and PM 2.5 levels reflect the industrial activity surrounding the site. A summary of the maximum 24-hour PM 2.5 levels recorded at each of these sites and the number of exceedances of the ARAQT of 25 µg/m 3 for the years is presented in Table 9. The table also shows the number of 24-hour periods when concentrations exceeded 20 µg/m 3. At the Kingsland site, PM 2.5 concentrations include both the one-day-in-three Partisol sampler and the continuous BAM. The monitoring data shows that PM 2.5 levels at the three monitoring sites do on occasion exceed the ARAQT, but also that exceedances of the ARAQT and of concentrations greater than 20 µg/m 3 are relatively infrequent. The peak concentrations recorded at the monitoring sites typically occur during winter nights and early mornings and are most likely associated with emissions from residential heating. Lower annual maximum 24-hour average PM 10 concentrations are recorded at the Henderson Site compared to the Kingsland, Penrose and Takapuna sites. Therefore, it is likely that background PM 2.5 levels near the project area will also be lower than those recorded at the Kingsland, Penrose and Takapuna sites. Without ambient air monitoring data, it is difficult to determine what maximum background levels near the project are likely to be; although, based on the available monitoring data, it is reasonable to expect that, on average, annual maximum 24-hour PM 2.5 levels could vary between µg/m 3 and may also on occasion exceed the ARAQT. Any exceedances will most likely be associated with home heating emissions and may not occur during the same 24-hour period when the contribution from the motorway to ambient PM 2.5 levels is greatest. Table 9. Summary of 24-hour PM 2.5 monitoring data at Kingsland, Penrose and Takapuna * Site Kingsland (Partisol) Kingsland (BAM) Penrose (BAM) Maximum RAQT exceedances Concentrations >20 µg/m Maximum - 26 # 20 - RAQT exceedances Concentrations >20 µg/m Maximum - 24 # RAQT exceedances Concentrations >20 µg/m Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 18

27 Site Takapuna (BAM) Maximum # 29 RAQT exceedances Concentrations >20 µg/m * Monitoring data courtesy of the ARC #Continuous monitoring commenced in August 2006 at Kingsland and Penrose and in June 2007 at Takapuna 6.2 Nitrogen Dioxide Levels Near Motorways The ARC has monitored ambient concentrations of NO 2 at several sites in the vicinity of SH1, including sites in Takapuna (Wairau Road) and Penrose (Gavin Street) percentile 1-hour, maximum 24-hour and annual average NO 2 concentrations recorded at these monitoring sites for the years are presented in Table 10. The Takapuna and Penrose monitoring sites are located 100m and 60m respectively from sections of the motorway that handle far higher traffic volumes than currently occur on SH16 or are predicted for any of the emission scenarios modelled herein. Although the monitoring data at these sites do not reflect the decreasing trend observed at the Henderson site (refer to Table 8), they do show that ambient concentrations of NO 2 at both sites, which are largely due to vehicle exhaust emissions, are substantially lower than the 1-hour average AQNES and lower than the 24-hour average ARAQT. Table 10. Summary of 99.9 percentile 1-hour average, maximum 24 -hour average and annual average NO 2 concentrations (µg/m 3 ) at the ARC Takapuna and Penrose ambient air monitoring stations * (µg/m 3 ) (µg/m 3 ) (µg/m 3 ) (µg/m 3 ) (µg/m 3 ) (µg/m 3 ) Takapuna 99.9 percentile 1- hour average Maximum 24-hour average Annual Average Penrose 99.9 percentile 1- hour average Maximum 24-hour average Annual Average * Monitoring data courtesy of the ARC Between March 2005 and January 2006 an additional mobile monitoring station (Penrose IV(D)) operated near to the Penrose monitoring site. The mobile monitoring station was located 15m from the Southern Motorway. The 99.9 percentile 1-hour average and maximum 24-hour NO 2 concentrations recorded during the monitoring were respectively 87 µg/m 3 and 62 µg/m 3. For the same period comparable 99.9 percentile 1-hour average and maximum 24-hour NO 2 concentrations of 89 µg/m 3 and 53 µg/m 3 were recorded at the fixed Penrose monitoring station located a further Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 19

28 85m from the motorway. The monitoring results show little variation in peak NO 2 levels within the first 100m of the motorway. The small variation with distance can be attributed to the limiting effect of the availability of ambient ozone to react with NO in the motorway emission plume to form NO 2 (most nitrogen oxides (NO X ) are emitted in the form of NO). Therefore, although significantly higher NO concentrations may occur at locations closer to motorways, the availability of ambient ozone level limits to react with NO limits ambient NO 2 concentrations (see Appendix 3). Recorded concentrations at both stations are significantly less than the AQNES and ARAQT air quality criteria. Since significantly lower traffic volumes occur on SH16 compared to the traffic volumes on SH1 close to the Takapuna and Penrose monitoring stations, the monitoring data at these sites indicate that NO 2 concentrations near SH16 are also unlikely to exceed any of the AQNES and ARAQT ambient air quality criteria. 6.3 Passive Monitoring Near SH16 The NZTA operates a NO 2 and BTEX (benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes) passive monitoring programme at a large number of sites across Auckland. The locations of passive sampling sites in the vicinity of the project are presented in Figure 3. The NO 2 passive sampling sites are shown in the figure as open circles, and the NO 2 and BTEX passive sampling sites as filled black dots. Passive monitoring is undertaken using diffusion tubes, which are exposed for approximately a month at a time. A general location map with street names is also attached at Appendix NO 2 Passive Sampling Results A summary of the NZTA NO 2 passive sampling results from the monitoring sites shown in Figure 3 is presented in Table 11. The table includes monitoring sites that are both in and outside the study area. Traffic volumes on SH16 (and predicted vehicle emission rates) to the east of the Lincoln Road interchange are higher than those in the project area. Monitoring sites outside the project area therefore provide an indication of air pollutant levels near the motorway that are currently expected to be more impacted by vehicle emissions than those in the project area. Passive monitoring sites outside the project area (between Henderson Creek Bridge and the Te Atatu interchange) are not shown in the figure (i.e. AUC117, AUC118, AUC119 and AUC128). Most sites to the west of Henderson Bridge were established in October 2009, for which only two months of monitoring data is currently available. The exceptions are the monitoring sites AUC051 and AUC020 located at Cedar Heights Road and Taitapu Street respectively. These monitoring sites and those to the east of Henderson Bridge near the Te Atatu interchange have been in operation since July 2009, for which five months monitoring data is currently available. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 20

29 Legend NO 2 & BTEX NO 2 only Figure 3. Locations of Passive NO 2 & BTEX Monitoring Sites near the Project Area Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 21

30 Site Nº Site Location Distance from SH16 Table 11. Passive NO 2 Monitoring Results Date Monitoring Commenced Average NO 2 concentration (µg/m 3 ) Estimated annual Average NO 2 concentration (µg/m 3 )* AUC020 Cedar Heights Ave 90 July AUC051 Taitapu St 20 July AUC115 Titoki St 1 75 July AUC117 Marewa St 65 July AUC118 Paton Ave 40 July AUC119 Milich Tce 40 July AUC128 Lincoln Road 340 Oct AUC129 Triangle Rd 90 Oct AUC130 Kopi Pl 90 Oct AUC131 Huruhuru Rd 90 Oct AUC132 Doone Pl 70 Oct AUC133 Ginders Dr 90 Oct AUC134 Mescal St 540 Oct AUC135 Colwill Rd 470 Oct AUC136 Benchmark Dr 200 Oct AUC137 Cedar Heights Ave Sth 80 Oct AUC138 Kasia Cl 80 Oct AUC139 Vina Pl 250 Oct AUC140 Kemp Rd 390 Oct AUC141 Glenbervie Cres 590 Oct AUC142 Cedar Heights Ave Nrth 90 Oct AUC143 Moire Rd 240 Oct AUC144 Royal Rd Onramp 130 Oct AUC145 Makora Rd 60 Oct AUC146 Royal Rd 230 Oct AUC147 Holmes Dr Sth 90 Oct AUC148 Ruze Vida Dr 90 Oct AUC149 Holmes Dr 80 Oct AUC150 Oreil Ave 80 Oct AUC151 Hobsonville Rd 180 Oct AUC152 Fitzherbert Ave 470 Oct * The annual average NO 2 concentration has been calculated using NIWA derived monthly slope factors (NIWA pers. com., 2010). In addition, three passive NO 2 samplers have been co-located with the ARC s continuous ambient monitoring site at Henderson Intermediate School, Lincoln Road. The results of monitoring undertaken at this location between July and November 2009 are summarised in Table 12. Over this period, the passive samplers recorded slightly higher NO 2 concentrations than the more Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 22

31 accurate chemiluminescence instrumental monitor. This comparison suggests that passive samplers are not under reporting NO 2 concentrations. Table 12 - NO 2 Monitoring at Henderson Intermediate School Site Nº Monitor Type NO 2 concentration (µg/m 3 ) Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Average AUC054 Passive AUC055 Passive AUC056 Passive ARC* Chemiluminescence NR* 13.6 * The results of continuous NO 2 monitoring at Henderson Intermediate School are interim results provided by the ARC. NR Result not available at time of writing. Figure 4 shows average NO 2 concentrations for the passive monitoring sites with distance from SH16. The monitoring data shows NO 2 concentrations decrease rapidly with distance from the motorway. Average NO 2 concentrations at m from the motorway are comparatively constant, typically ranging between 8 10 µg/m 3, approximately half the peak average NO 2 concentrations are recorded at sites located m from the motorway. The results indicate that the effect of emissions from the motorway on ambient air quality is likely to be highly localised SH W E Figure 4. Average passive sampler NO 2 concentrations with distance from SH16 The monthly average concentrations recorded at the passive sampler monitoring sites cannot be directly compared against the short term 1-hour average NO 2 AQNES and the 24-hour average ARAQT. However, analysis of NO 2 data from the ARC s ambient air quality monitoring network suggest an approximately linear relationship between 99.9 percentile 1-hour average NO 2 Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 23

32 concentration and annual average NO 2 concentration (Longley et al, 2008). Figure 5 shows the recorded annual average and 99.9 percentile concentration at ARC monitoring sites for the years 2004 to A linear regression model trend line is shown in the figure as a solid line (R 2 =0.86), the dotted lines either side corresponds to the 95% confidence interval for a predicted 1-hour average 99.9 percentile NO 2 concentrations at a particular annual average NO 2 concentration. The confidence interval, calculated from the standard error of the forecast, provides an indication of the uncertainty of the predicted 1-hour average 99.9 percentile NO 2 concentration. The results indicate that at any location in Auckland, 99.9 percentile 1-hour average concentrations are unlikely to exceed the AQNES ambient air quality standard if annual average NO 2 concentrations remain less than 40 µg/m percentile 1-hour average NO 2 concentration (mg/m 3 ) 200 National Environmental Standard Annual average NO 2 concentration (mg/m 3 ) Figure 5. Relationship between yearly 99.9 percentile 1-hour average and annual average NO 2 concentrations at Auckland monitoring sites (Data courtesy of ARC) A similar relationship has been reported in an analysis of UK monitoring data from kerbside and roadside monitoring stations (Laxen and Marner, 2003). The results of that analysis similarly indicated that hourly NO 2 concentrations are unlikely to exceed 200 µg/m 3 when annual average NO 2 concentrations remained less than 40 µg/m 3. The monitoring sites near the project have only been in operation for 2 to 5 months. It is therefore not possible to directly calculate an annual average NO 2 concentration from the data available as monthly average NO 2 concentrations typically vary throughout the year. Higher monthly average concentrations are typically recorded during the winter months and lower concentrations during the summer. In Table 11 an annual average NO 2 concentration has been estimated by multiplying each of the recorded monthly concentrations by a monthly slope factor. Preliminary monthly slope factors relating monthly average NO 2 to annual average NO 2 concentrations have been derived by NIWA based on monitoring sites within the Auckland region (NIWA pers com., 2010). At monitoring sites within 90m of the motorway that are unlikely to be impacted by emissions from vehicles travelling on the off-ramps and on-ramps, estimated annual average NO 2 concentrations range between µg/m 3. The highest concentration was recorded at the Kopi Place monitoring Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 24

33 site (AUC130) located just to the south of the project. The higher concentration recorded at this site is possibly a consequence of slow moving traffic during the morning peak hour traffic. The estimated annual average concentrations at sites near the motorway are significantly lower than 40 µg/m 3. Therefore there is reasonable evidence to indicate that current 99.9 percentile 1-hour average NO 2 concentrations near the motorway (ie m from the edge of the motorway) are statistically unlikely to exceed the AQNES and are most likely to be significantly lower. For an annual average NO 2 concentration of 24 µg/m 3, the regression model predicts a mean 99.9 percentile 1-hour average NO 2 concentration of 91 µg/m 3 (46% of the AQNES). Comparable annual average and 99.9 percentile 1-hour average concentrations recorded at the Takapuna and Penrose monitoring sites range from 15 µg/m 3 to 28 µg/m 3 (annual) and 70 µg/m 3 to 114 µg/m 3 (1- hour) (refer to Table 10). It is notable that the annual average NO 2 concentration at the Taitapu Street (AUC051) monitoring site, which is located approximately 110m to the northwest of the Kopi Place monitoring site and 70m closer to SH16 is 16.4µg/m 3. The estimated annual concentration at Taitapu Street is 70% of the concentration recorded at the Kopi Place site. In the project area the highest annual average concentration is predicted to occur at the Makora Road (AUC144) monitoring site, which is a kerbside location. This site is located on Royal Road at the lighted intersection of Royal Road and Makora Road. The estimated annual average NO 2 concentration of 38.7 µg/m 3 is 65% higher than the annual average concentration recorded at the Kopi Place site. The higher concentration recorded at the site can most likely be attributable to the higher vehicle emission rates at the intersection due to acceleration, deceleration and engine idling from traffic on Royal road, rather than directly to vehicle travelling on SH16. The effect of the intersection on NO 2 levels is indicated by the significantly lower average NO 2 concentration of 11.9µg/m 3 recorded at the Royal Road monitoring station (AUC146) located approximately 160m to the west of Makora Road site where the traffic on Royal Road is more free flowing. The estimated annual average concentration at the Makora Road site is less than the 40 µg/m 3 which indicates that current NO 2 levels are unlikely to exceed the NES. For an annual average concentration of 39 µg/m 3 the regression model predicts an average 99.9 percentile 1-hour average concentration of 134 µg/m 3. The monitoring site is located on a power pole approximately 2m from the kerbside. The public is unlikely to be exposed at this location for any extended period of time. The closest buildings of Royal Road Primary School and Preschool are situated approximately 20m from the kerbside; NO 2 levels at the school are therefore expected to be less than those recorded at the monitoring site. A comparative high annual average NO 2 concentration of 28.7 µg/m 3 is also predicted at the Royal Road On-ramp site (AUC144) located near the badminton club at the intersection of Royal Road and the southbound on-ramp. Higher emission rates can be expected on these roads as a consequence of vehicle acceleration and deceleration and queuing, particularly during the morning peak hour. However, the estimated annual average concentration is less than 40µg/m 3 which indicates that it is unlikely that the AQNES is currently exceeded at this location. The annual average NO 2 concentration at the Moire Road site (AUC143) of 27.2 µg/m 3 is expected to be similarly affected by high vehicle emissions as a consequence of vehicle acceleration/deceleration at the lighted Moire Road and Royal Road intersection (rather than directly from SH16 vehicle emissions). It should be noted that, during the October to November sampling period, significant construction work was occurring near the Hobsonsville interchange, during which SH16 between Royal Road and the Hobsonville interchange was closed for periods. During these periods motorway traffic was diverted along side streets including Royal Road, Oreil Avenue, Makora Road, and Moire Road where passive sampling sites are located. The increase in traffic volumes on these roads would be Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 25

34 associated with higher vehicle emissions, particularly near intersections. As a consequence, recorded NO 2 concentrations are expected to be higher than what would normally be expected at these locations. The reported concentrations in Table 11 are therefore expected to be a conservative assessment of current NO 2 levels. Figure 6 shows the predicted annual average concentration against maximum 24-hour average NO 2 at ARC ambient air quality monitoring sites between 2004 and The figure also suggests a linear relationship between annual average and maximum 24-hour concentrations. A linear regression model trend line is shown in the figure as a solid line (R 2 =0.93), the dotted lines either side correspond to the 95% confidence interval for predicted individual maximum 24-hour average NO 2 concentrations at a defined annual average NO 2 concentration. Maximum 24-hour average NO 2 concentration (mg/m 3 ) Regional Air Quality Target Annual average NO 2 concentration (mg/m 3 ) Figure 6. Relationship between yearly maximum 24-hour average and annual average NO 2 concentrations at Auckland monitoring sites (Data courtesy of ARC) The observed relationship also indicates that the 24-hour average ARAQT of 100 µg/m 3 is statistically unlikely to be exceeded at locations where the annual average NO 2 concentrations remain less than 40 µg/m 3. The maximum estimated annual average concentration of 23.4 µg/m 3 reported at any of the monitoring sites located close to SH16 indicates that maximum 24-hour average NO 2 level are unlikely to exceed the ARAQT at locations near the motorway. For an annual average NO 2 concentration of 24 µg/m 3, the regression model predicts a mean maximum 24-hour average concentration of 54 µg/m 3 (54% of the ARAQT). The predicted maximum 24-hour concentration can be compared to the maximum 24-hour NO 2 concentrations recorded at the Takapuna and Penrose monitoring sites. The average maximum 24-hour average concentrations recorded at the Takapuna and Penrose sites for the years are respectively 54 µg/m 3 and 55 µg/m 3 (see Table 10). Similarly, even the higher annual average NO 2 concentration of 38.7 µg/m 3 estimated for the Makora site indicates that the ARAQT is unlikely to be exceeded at what appears (based on the passive monitoring data) to be one of the most impacted areas near the motorway. Based on the estimated average NO 2 concentration, the regression model predicts an average maximum 24-hour Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 26

35 NO 2 concentration of 78 µg/m 3. As previously noted, NO 2 concentrations at this site are likely to be higher than what would normally occur due to the closures of SH16 for construction work. The public is also extremely unlikely to be present at the kerbside monitoring site for any 24-hour period Benzene Passive Sampling Results A summary of the passive sampling for benzene near the motorway are presented in Table 13. The passive sampling sites located near Te Atatu interchange (AUC112, AUC115, AUC119, and AUC124) have been operating since July 2009; while the monitoring sites located near the Royal Road interchange (AUC134, AUC137, AUC 138, AUC141) have been in operation since October For a number of the monthly samples, benzene concentrations were lower than the limit of detection for passive samplers. To provide an indication of the level of uncertainty, average concentrations in Table 13 have been reported in two ways; column 5 of Table 13 shows monthly benzene concentration less than the level of detection (LOD) as zero; while column 6 of Table 13 shows monthly benzene concentration less than the level of detection (LOD) as equal to the LOD. The monitoring data shows no clear variation in average benzene concentrations with distance from SH16. The maximum average benzene concentration recorded at the any of the passive monitoring sites occurred at the Milich Terrace site, located approximately 40m from SH16. The average concentration recorded at the monitoring sites range from µg/m 3, or less than 31% of ARAQT (and AAQG) of 3.6 µg/m 3. The monitoring data indicates that benzene levels near the motorway are currently significantly less than ambient air quality criteria levels. At the background monitoring sites (located more than 500m from the motorway), recorded benzene concentrations range from µg/m 3. The limited monitoring data suggests that the contribution from the motorway to benzene levels may be comparatively low. Site Nº Site Location Distance from SH16 Table 13. Passive Benzene Monitoring Results Date Monitoring Commenced Average Benzene Concentration (µg/m 3 ) ND=0 ND=LOD AUC112 Helga Cres 630 July AUC115 Titoki St 75 July AUC119 Milich Tce 40 July AUC124 Pomelo Rd 725 July AUC134 Mescal St 540 Oct AUC137 Cedar Heights Av Sth 80 Oct AUC138 Kasia Cl 80 Oct AUC141 Glenbervie Cres 590 Oct ND Measured concentration below the limit of detection LOD Limit of detection for the method 6.4 Background/Baseline Pollutant Levels Used in the Assessment For this assessment, cumulative CO, PM 10 and benzene concentrations have been estimated based on the Henderson monitoring data. In the assessment it has conservatively been assumed that worst case background pollutant levels occur during the same period when the maximum contribution from the motorway is predicted to occur. This approach is expected to overestimate actual pollutant levels near the motorway. A summary of the selected background pollutant levels for the relevant air quality criteria are shown in Table 14. It is assumed that background concentrations remain constant between 2006 and Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 27

36 Since no PM 2.5 monitoring has occurred at the Henderson monitoring station, it is difficult to derive a representative background pollutant concentration for the project area. Based on the monitoring that has occurred at Takapuna, Penrose and Kingsland sites, is it likely that annual maximum 24-hour PM 2.5 concentrations in the project area are within the range of µg/m 3, but it is possible that concentrations may also occasionally exceed the ARAQT of 25 µg/m 3 in winter as a consequence of residential home heating emissions. In this assessment, a background concentration of 20 µg/m 3 has been assumed. This value is intended to be a reasonable assessment of the probable worst case 24-hour PM 2.5 background pollutant level that is likely to occur during the same 24-hour periods when the contribution from motorway is predicted to be greatest. Table 14. Summary of estimated worst case background and baseline PM 10, PM 2.5, NO 2, CO, and benzene pollutant levels Pollutant Averaging Period Background Pollutant Concentration* PM hour 40 µg/m 3 Annual 17 µg/m 3 PM hour 20 µg/m 3 NO 2 1-hour 91 µg/m µg/m 3 24 hour 54 µg/m 3 78 µg/m 3 CO 1-hour 5.0 mg/m 3 8-hour 3.0 mg/m 3 Benzene Annual 1.0 µg/m 3 * Two separate values are shown for both 1-hour and 24-hour average baseline concentrations of NO 2. The lower value for each averaging period represents the general background concentration in the project area, while the higher values represent the baseline concentrations used for the assessment of effects in the vicinity of the Royal Road interchange Due to the effect that atmospheric chemistry has on NO 2 levels, this assessment has considered the relative effect that each of the 2026 emission scenarios is likely to have on current air pollutant levels. Cumulative NO 2 concentration have been calculated based on estimates of current 99.9 percentile 1-hour average and 24-hour average NO 2 levels near the motorway (baseline pollutant levels) and the change in NO 2 concentrations predicted by the dispersion model using the method detailed in Appendix 3. In this assessment, it has generally been assumed that the existing NO 2 concentrations in residential locations near the motorway are equivalent to the mean 99.9 percentile 1-hour average and maximum 24-hour average NO 2 predicted by the regression model for an estimated annual average concentration of 24 µg/m 3 the highest annual average NO 2 recorded at the passive monitoring sites located near SH16. Using this approach, the assumed baseline 99.9 percentile 1- hour average and 24-hour average NO 2 levels are 91 µg/m 3 and 54 µg/m 3 respectively. For the specific assessment of NO 2 concentrations close to the Royal Road interchange a more conservative approach has been adopted. Existing 99.9 percentile 1-hour average and maximum 24-hour average NO 2 concentrations have been predicted using the regression model based on the estimated annual average concentration of 39 µg/m 3 recorded at the Makora Road and Royal Road intersection. The predicted 99.9 percentile 1-hour average and maximum 24-hour average NO 2 of 134 µg/m 3 and 78 µg/m 3 almost certainty overestimate pollutant concentrations at locations away from the intersection. This approach is therefore highly conservative and will tend to overestimate actual pollutant concentrations. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 28

37 7 Traffic Modelling and Vehicle Emission Rates As outlined in Section 4 of this report, the effects of vehicle exhaust emissions are dependent upon a number of factors, including: mass emission rates of various contaminants, meteorology, background concentrations and the sensitivity of the receiving environment. This section of the report provides information relating to the estimation of pollutant emissions from a road section based on traffic volumes predicted through the use of traffic modelling. The key input parameters to the atmospheric dispersion modelling assessment are: Traffic volumes Vehicle emission rates The traffic volumes predicted by the traffic modelling and a summary of the calculated pollutant emissions are provided below. 7.1 Traffic Modelling Traffic volumes are described in detail in the Western Ring Route: SH16 Huruhuru Road Bridge to Westgate - Transportation Assessment (Traffic Design Group). Traffic volumes along SH16 and on surrounding roads in 2006, 2016 and 2026 have been derived using the traffic modelling program EMME/3. This incorporates the ART3 Demand Model and the Project Assignment Model. The ART3 model is operated by the ARC and is implemented in the EMME/3 software. The ART3 Demand Model is a multi-modal transport model that predicts overall regional traffic patterns based on inputs and forecasts of population and employment growth, the level of road and public transport infrastructure and other policy assumptions (such as fuel price and traffic demand management). The Project Assignment Model uses data from the ART3 Demand Model and assigns it to network roads, which, although covering the whole Auckland region, has significantly greater detail in the study area than does the ART3 Model. The Project Assignment Model was developed in 2008 for investigation of the Western Ring Route project. The model includes a detailed network representation in the study area and has been validated to 2006 traffic conditions. Only one forecast year has been assumed: 2026 (to represent the year of opening for the project); along with 2006 to represent the current baseline. The changes to traffic flows on SH16 and the local road network are summarised briefly below. Unlike other sections of the WRR: Waterview Connection Project, the development of Royal Road interchange and the widening of the SH16 between the Huruhuru Road Bridge and Royal Road are expected to occur after Predicted Traffic Volumes on SH16 Even without the proposed widening of SH16 there is a predicted increase in traffic flows on SH16 through the study area between 2006 and 2016 due to growth in the corridor. Between 2016 and 2026, traffic flows are predicted to increase by some 15-25%. A further increase in traffic volumes can be observed with the widening of SH16. In 2026, there is a large increase in traffic predicted along the whole length of SH16 as the whole motorway is widened, thereby attracting more traffic to the corridor, as a result of the completion of the Western Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 29

38 Ring Route (up to 34% in the section between the Royal Road and Hobsonville Road Interchanges). 7.2 Factors which Affect Vehicle Emission Rates The volume and concentrations of vehicle emissions depend on a number of factors as described below Vehicle Age The New Zealand vehicle fleet is old in comparison with other countries where car ownership is high. The average age of New Zealand cars is 12.6 years, with the current majority having been used overseas prior to importation to New Zealand (MoT, 2010). The average fleet age of trucks is 14.3 years, whereas the average for buses is marginally older at 15.5 years. Older vehicles tend to have higher emission levels for both carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NO x ), as vehicle emissions deteriorate with age. In 2003 the ARC carried out remote sensing of emissions from over 40,000 vehicles in the Auckland region (ARC, 2003).This report identified gross emitters in the fleet, which are older or poorly tuned vehicles. This study showed that gross emitters (defined as the most polluting 10% of vehicles) were responsible for approximately half the total emissions of PM Catalytic Converters Emissions of CO, VOC and NO X from a catalytic converter equipped petrol vehicle are approximately ten times lower than an equivalent non catalyst equipped vehicle. Catalytic converters do not reduce the level of PM 10 discharged from vehicles. New Zealand does not have strict emissions standards for vehicles and the installation of catalytic converters is not mandatory. Due to the high average fleet age, the New Zealand fleet has a higher proportion of vehicles operating without catalytic converters compared to Australia and Europe (Metcalfe, 2009). About one quarter of the New Zealand fleet have catalytic converters, although this situation is expected to improve as the New Zealand fleet is almost entirely composed of vehicles manufactured overseas to international standards. The majority of newer cars (e.g. petrol vehicles manufactured since 2000) are assumed to have catalytic converters installed Vehicle Speed Maintaining a steady flow of traffic will produce fewer pollutants than the stop/start traffic often experienced at peak times (which results if frequent acceleration and deceleration of vehicles). In general, for free flowing traffic, composite vehicle fleet emission rates of hydrocarbons, NO X, PM 10 and CO (in grams per kilometre travelled) increase with decreasing vehicles speeds lower than 40km/hr. At average speeds above 60km/h, composite emissions rates of NO x increase slightly (although not to the same extent as a low speeds), while emissions rates for PM 10 and CO continue to decrease Fuel The bulk of the New Zealand car fleet is fuelled by petrol; however, the number of diesel cars and commercial vehicles is forecast to continue to increase. The removal of lead from petrol in 1996 and the lowering of sulphur in diesel from 2002 have resulted in a significant improvement in the emission of these contaminants. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 30

39 Diesel vehicles produce emissions with different concentrations of pollutants than those produced by petrol vehicles. Particulate emissions are significantly higher for diesel vehicles than petrol vehicles Proportion of Heavy Vehicles The proportion of heavy vehicles (usually diesel fuelled) using a road has a significant impact on overall emission rates, due to their relatively higher emissions of particulate matter per kilometre travelled compared to light vehicles. In terms of relative emissions, a large (e.g tonne) diesel heavy vehicle emits around fifty times more particulate matter than a petrol passenger car Journey Length and Vehicle Mileage Vehicle exhaust emissions tend to be highest when the engine is cold ( cold start ) - once the engine has warmed up, exhaust emissions decrease substantially. This is especially true of vehicles fitted with catalytic converters these tend to be ineffective until they have reached operating temperature. Therefore, average emissions will decrease as the individual journey length increases. However, vehicles with high mileage are likely to have increased exhaust emissions compared to new vehicles, as engine wear increases and catalytic converter efficiency decreases. Because vehicle mileage tends to increase with vehicle age, the age profile of the vehicle fleet also reflects the average mileage of vehicles for each year of manufacture Road Surface and Gradient Anything that increases the rolling resistance of the road will increase fuel consumption and hence exhaust emission rates. Because all the roads considered in this assessment are located within urban Auckland, it can be assumed that all road surfaces are asphalt. Therefore, no correction has been made for the effects of road surface. Road gradients can increase or decrease vehicle fuel consumption depending on whether vehicles are travelling uphill or downhill. Within the project area, the terrain is relatively level, without any significant hills that would significantly affect vehicle exhaust emissions. Therefore, road gradients have been ignored in this assessment. 7.3 Forecast Traffic Volumes The output from EMME/3 takes the form of 2-hour predicted traffic volumes for the AM peak (07:00-09:00), PM peak (16:00-18:00) and interpeak (IP a two hour period representative of average traffic flows through the remaining 20 hours). Average weekday traffic flow rates used to predict traffic emissions are summarised in Table 15. Table 15 also includes predicted annual average daily traffic (AADT). The table shows that average daily traffic volumes on SH16 are predicted to increase in 2026 from 2006 levels by 62 71% north of the Royal Road interchange, and 41 51% south of the interchange. Higher traffic volumes are predicted for the with project development. Average daily traffic volumes on Royal Road near the primary school to the west of the interchange are similarly expected to increase by 41 59% between 2006 and However, only slight increases in traffic volumes of 12 16% are predicted for Royal Road to the east of the interchange in Therefore the comparatively small increase in traffic volumes, combined with the assumed improvements in vehicle fleet s emission control technology, suggest that pollutant levels to the east of the Royal Road interchange in 2026 are unlikely to be higher than existing 2006 levels. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 31

40 Table 15. Predicted AM Peak, PM Peak and IP average hourly traffic volumes (vehicles) and Average Annual Daily Traffic (vehicles/day) volumes for an average weekday Road Section Period 2006 Baseline 2016 Do Minimum 2016 With Project 2026 Do Minimum 2026 With Project SH16 north of Royal Road SH16 south of Royal Road Royal Road west of SH16, adjacent to the Royal Road Primary school Royal Road east of SH16, between the Royal Road Onramp and Moire Rd AM Peak IP PM Peak AADT AM Peak IP PM Peak AADT AM Peak IP PM Peak AADT AM Peak IP PM Peak AADT Forecast Emission Rates Vehicle Emissions Prediction Model Detailed emissions factors have been derived from VEPM v3 (2009). The VEPM database calculates emissions factors for European origin vehicles and also draws on emissions data from New Zealand, the Japan Clean Air Program, the European Environment Agency (COPERT III), and the European Program on Emissions, Fuels and Engine Technologies (EPEFE). The model provides a comprehensive emissions database covering the range of vehicle types available in the New Zealand fleet Non Exhaust Emission Factors Previously, brake and tyre wear emissions have not generally been included in assessing transport effects, mainly due to the lack of data on these factors. The MfE Transport GPG (MfE, 2008) recommends that for Tier 3 assessments they be considered, since for busy roads these can be a significant source of PM 10. Due to the high level of uncertainty associated with these emission factors, it is also recommended that a sensitivity analysis be undertaken. Rather than undertake such an analysis, the brake and tyre wear emission factors calculated by VEPM have been utilised in this assessment. These factors increase the overall PM 10 emission rates by 20-50% depending on the average vehicle speed. VEPM provides the option to calculate brake and tyre wear particulate emissions based on the average number of wheels for each vehicle class. In this case the model default settings were used for the purposes of the modelling assessment. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 32

41 7.4.3 Catalytic Converters in VEPM VEPM assumes a percentage of cars with non-functioning catalytic converters for vehicles built between 1980 and This is a percentage of the total number of cars manufactured with catalytic converters. The default value of 15% for older cars and 0% for newer cars was used in this assessment. As this assumption is constant across all modelled scenarios, comparisons of predicted ground level concentrations between the various scenarios remain valid Traffic Emissions Modelling Key assumptions in the determination of vehicle emissions from surface roads in the vicinity of SH16 between the Huruhuru Road Bridge and Hobsonville Road interchange were: In total, 3 scenarios were run: 2006 (baseline) and 2026 Do minimum and With project. Vehicle emissions were modelled using the results of the traffic modelling as inputs (% Heavy Commercial Vehicles (HCVs), total vehicles and speeds) for each link. The vehicle emission factors are a fleet average composite factor. The average composite factor is generated using a vehicle fleet profile. The proportion of heavy vehicles predicted to travel on SH16 in the study area in is predicted to range from 4% to 13%; these values have been used in VEPM. The breakdown of the different HCV categories was reached by increasing or decreasing the 4 categories of HCV in the default VEPM 2016 and 2026 proportionally, except that the proportion of buses on surface roads was held at 0.5%. The other categories were then adjusted proportionally so that the total fleet composition remained as 100%. Non tail pipe (brake and tyre wear) particulate emission factors have been included. The brake and tyre wear emission calculated by VEPM increase the PM 10 emissions by 20-50% depending on the average speed - this has been included in the modelling. VEPM provides the option to calculate brake and tyre wear particulate emissions based on the average number of wheels for each vehicle class. In this case the model default settings were used. The proportion of vehicle particulate emission assumed associated with non-tail pipe sources increases between 2006 and All of the non-tail particulate emissions are assumed to be PM 10. The VEPM cold start option was used. When a vehicle is started from cold, emissions are substantially higher, until the engine and catalyst warm up. VEPM does not account for cold start emissions from HCVs. Cold start emissions are affected by the user defined ambient temperature and average trip length. The VEPM degradation option was used. This raises the emissions from both exhaust and nonexhaust sources with the age of vehicle modelled. Emission factors are calculated on the predicted average vehicle speed for the modelled section of road. The VEPM model is valid for average vehicle speed between km/hr. The predicted fleet emission factors therefore do not directly model emission rates near intersections which may vary as consequence of acceleration, deceleration, and engine idling. Air quality near the intersection of Royal Road and Makora Road has been discussed with respect to current ambient monitoring data (see section of this report) and future vehicle volumes (section 7.3) Diurnal Emission Profiles Diurnal emission profiles have been constructed for each of the modelled sections of SH16. These are detailed in Appendix Benzene Emission Rates Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 33

42 The VEPM emission factors do not directly calculate motor vehicle benzene emission rates, only the emission rate of total tail pipe hydrocarbon emissions. In this analysis, benzene emission rates have been estimated using the method detailed in the MfE Transport GPG (MfE, 2008), by assuming that approximately 5.9% of total hydrocarbon emitted by vehicle exhausts is in the form of benzene. Since emissions of benzene are primarily associated with exhaust emissions from petrol engine, this approach is likely to overestimate actual benzene emission rates. The small contribution from evaporative losses has not been incorporated into the emission estimates PM 2.5 Emission Rates The same assumptions used to calculate PM 2.5 emission rates in the air quality assessment of the Waterview Connection Project (NZTA, 2010) have also been adopted in this report. Therefore, PM 2.5 emission rates are assumed to be approximately 75% of total (exhaust, brake and tyre) PM 10 emission rates. The estimated 25% decrease in particulate emissions is primarily associated with brake and tyre wear emissions Summary of Predicted Emission Rates A summary of predicted PM 10, CO, NO X and benzene emission rates for SH16 for north and south of the Royal Road interchange and for the section of Royal Road adjacent to Royal Road Primary and Preschool for the 2006 and 2026 emission scenarios is presented in Table 16, Table 17, Table 18, and Table 19. It should be noted that pollutant emission rates in the tables are presented as grams per kilometre road per hour calculated by multiplying the predicted composite vehicle fleet emission rates by the predicted total hourly traffic volume. The tables shows that vehicle emission rates are expected to decrease for both SH16 and Royal Road even though significant increases in vehicle volumes are predicted to occur on both roads (refer to Table 15). This is due to the assumptions in VEPM regarding improvements in the vehicle fleet over time (e.g. reductions in the average age of vehicles, improved fuel consumption and emissions control).the most significant decreases in pollutant emission are associated with CO. The smallest change in pollutant emission rates is predicted for PM 10. Table 16. Summary of predicted PM 10 emission rates (g/km-hour) Road Section Period 2006 Baseline 2026 Do Minimum 2026 With Project SH16 north of Royal Road SH16 south of Royal Road Royal Road, adjacent school AM Peak IP PM Peak AM Peak IP PM Peak AM Peak IP PM Peak Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 34

43 Table 17. Summary of predicted CO emission rates (g/km-hour) Road Section Period 2006 Baseline 2026 Do Minimum 2026 With Project SH16 north of Royal Road SH16 south of Royal Road Royal Road, adjacent school AM Peak IP PM Peak AM Peak IP PM Peak AM Peak IP PM Peak Table 18. Summary of predicted NO X emission rates (g/km-hour) Road Section Period 2006 Baseline 2026 Do Minimum 2026 With Project SH16 north of Royal Road SH16 south of Royal Road Royal Road, adjacent school AM Peak IP PM Peak AM Peak IP PM Peak AM Peak IP PM Peak Table 19. Summary of predicted benzene emission rates (g/km-hour) Road Section Period 2006 Baseline 2026 Do Minimum 2026 With Project SH16 north of Royal Road SH16 south of Royal Road Royal Road, adjacent school AM Peak IP PM Peak AM Peak IP PM Peak AM Peak IP PM Peak Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 35

44 8 Dispersion Modelling 8.1 Choice of Dispersion Model Pollutant concentrations have been predicted using the AUSROADS dispersion model. AUSROADS is a simple Gaussian dispersion model developed by the Victorian Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), based on the Californian Department of Transportation s CALINE4 dispersion model. Compared to CALINE4, AUSROADS allows for an increased number of road links and receptor points, and ability to predicted pollutant concentrations using a full year of meteorological data. AUSROADS is widely used throughout Australasia and is recognised in the MfE Good Practice Guide for Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling (2004). AUSROADS has been used for the assessment of surface road emissions for the Western Ring Route: Waterview Connection project (Beca, 2010c). The model incorporates specific algorithms designed to simulate the dispersion of pollutants from roads. The dispersion algorithms simulate the effects of vehicle induced turbulence, thermal turbulence and surface roughness. AUSROADS is a near road model and is intended for the assessment of pollutant concentrations within a few hundred metres of a road source. As a consequence AUSROADS uses comparatively simple methods to account for terrain and structural effects on pollutant dispersion, e.g. allowing modelled road links to being classified as either elevated, depressed, or a bridge. AUSROADS does not take into consideration the effects that terrain has on pollutant dispersion, for instance the channelling of wind flows by hills or valleys. However, in this instance terrain is unlikely to have a significant effect on pollutant dispersion near the highway where peak pollutant levels are likely to occur. Similarly, as the buildings on either side of the highway are mostly one or two storey structures, recirculation effects associated with urban canyons are also not expected to occur. Due to the comparatively simple terrain that surrounds the highway and the fact that regional effects are not considered in the scope of the assessment, AUSROADS is a suitable model in this instance. A sample AUSROADS output files is attached at Appendix 2. AUSROADS does not simulate the reactions of pollutant once discharged into the atmosphere. In consequence, NO 2 concentrations have been estimated from predicted NO X concentrations using the method detailed in Appendix Modelled Emission Sources Ground level pollutant concentrations have been predicted using AUSROADS for three general areas in the vicinity of SH16. These are: 1. The existing residential properties to the south of the Royal Road interchange (south residential area). 2. Current and future residential properties to the north of the Royal Road interchange (north residential area). 3. The Royal Road Primary School and Preschool and residential properties near the Royal Road Interchange (interchange area). For the south and north residential areas only the contribution from vehicles travelling along SH16 to ambient air pollutant levels has been predicted. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 36

45 For the assessment of air quality at the Royal Road Primary School and Preschool and nearby residential properties, vehicle emissions from Royal Road and Makora Road have also been included in the dispersion model in addition to those from SH16. A significant proportion of the traffic on Royal Road and Makora Road is associated with vehicles either exiting or turning onto SH16. The inclusion of these roads in the dispersion model provides an indication of the cumulative effect of changes to traffic flows on the motorway and associated feeder roads at the school. As a consequence of the distinctive diurnal profiles associated with northbound and southbound traffic, and the fact that SH16 has separate carriageways for northbound and southbound traffic, the northbound and southbound lanes of the motorway have been modelled as separate line sources. In the model configuration it has been assumed that each individual lane is approximately 3.5m in width. The modelled road configuration presented in this report is based on an early design of the interchange. From an air quality perspective the major difference between the current configuration (refer Figure 1) and previous configuration is in the alignment of the Westbound Off-ramp. In the original interchange design (as modelled), the Westbound Off-ramp incorporated a relatively short deceleration lane, leading to an intersection with Makora Road approximately 120m south of Royal Road. The revised design incorporates a much longer deceleration lane, ending at the intersection of Makora Road and Royal Road. The revised design of the Westbound Off-ramp will decrease the impact of vehicle exhaust on properties on Makora Road. Since the predicted concentrations reported here will be comparable to or higher than those that would have been predicted if the current alignment had been modelled the dispersion modelling exercise was not repeated. The predicted concentrations presented in the report are therefore conservative, tending to overestimate predicted exposures. A description of the previous project design is summarised in Appendix 5. South Residential Area Figure 7 shows the modelled line sources used to assess potential air quality impacts in the residential areas on both sides of SH16 to the south of Royal Road. The northbound and southbound carriageways of SH16 have both been modelled as eight linked line sources (to represent the changes in surface topography between Huruhuru Road and the Royal Road interchange). The separation of the northbound and southbound line sources was increased for the 2026 with project to account for the addition of the extra northbound and southbound lanes. Each line source was assumed to be at grade with the exception of a section of SH16 adjacent to Cedar Heights Avenue, which was defined as being depressed by 10m to represent the higher elevations of the residential properties to the east of the motorway. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 37

46 Figure 7. Location of dispersion modelling line sources used to in residential areas to the south of the Royal Road interchange North Residential Area Figure 8 shows the modelled line sources used to assess potential air quality impacts in the residential areas both sides of SH16 to the north of Royal Road. The northbound and southbound carriageways of SH16 have both been modelled as separate line sources. Each line source was assumed to be at grade. The fence line of the closest residential property was assumed to be 25m from the centreline of SH16. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 38

47 Figure 8. Location of dispersion modelling line sources used to in residential areas to the north of the Royal Road interchange Interchange Area Figure 9 shows the line sources and discrete receptors (red crosses) used to assess potential air quality impacts near the Royal Road interchange. Lines sources were defined for SH16 and the two roads closest to the Royal Road Primary and Preschool (Makora Road and Royal Road). Most of the modelled line sources were assumed to be at grade with the exception of sections of the SH16 running under Royal Road Bridge which were assumed to be depressed by 5 10m, and the bridge section of Royal Road. Pollutant concentrations were predicted at two discrete receptor points located at Royal Road Primary School; the first receptor point corresponds to the closest building to Royal Road and SH16 (RRP1), while the second corresponds to the closest point on the school s playing field to SH16 (RRP2). Three additional receptor points were defined at residential properties located near to SH16 and Royal Road (H1 to H3). In the model, the receptor points H1 to H3 are sited near the residential property fence lines, where the pollutant levels are expected to highest. However, it is unlikely that individuals would be present at these locations for any extended period of time. Predicted pollutant concentrations at these locations are therefore expected to give a conservative assessment of potential residential exposures. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 39

48 RRP2 H3 RRP1 H1 H2 Figure 9. Location of dispersion modelling line sources used to in near the Royal Road interchange A summary of the modelled source parameters for both location and each of the three emission scenarios and three dispersion model configurations is presented in Appendices 1 and Configuration Options AUSROADS was configured using the following options: Pasquill-Gifford horizontal dispersion profile Irwin Urban wind exponent (recommended by the Victorian EPA for non-rural environments) A surface roughness of 0.4m. The selected surface roughness of 0.4m is representative of residential area. The roughness influences the effect of wind turbulence on pollutant dispersion. Increased turbulence leads to increased dispersion of emissions and thus lower ground level concentrations. 8.4 Receptor Grids In the residential areas to the north and south of the Royal Road interchange, receptor points were defined at distances of 25m, 30m, 50m, 75m, 100m, 150m and 200m from the centre of highway. Receptors were located only in areas outside the motorway s designation boundary. The designated boundary of the motorway typically extends 25-30m from the motorway centre line. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 40

49 Five discrete receptors were defined for the assessment of exposure at the Royal Road Primary and residential properties located near to the Royal Road interchange. The locations are shown in Figure 9. The receptors for all three model configuration have been defined at typical head height, 1.8m above ground level. 8.5 Meteorological Inputs Accurate atmospheric dispersion modelling requires good meteorological information that is representative of the dispersion conditions near the emission source, and in a format that can be used by the dispersion model. The ARC and NZTA have recently released a suite of CALMET meteorological datasets intended for use in regulatory assessments (Golders Associates, 2009). The ARC/NZTA suite includes nine high resolution data sets for selected urban areas and a single low resolution data set covering all of Auckland s urban area. Three of these high resolution urban data sets cover portions of SH16, but not for the whole length of the highway. NIWA has subsequently developed a full year high resolution CALMET dataset for the whole of SH16 using the same meteorological inputs that were used to develop the ARC/NZTA CALMET datasets. The same grid density used in the high resolution urban ARC/NZTA CALMET files, whereby meteorological grid points were defined every 100m in the northerly and easterly direction in the CALMET modelling domain, was used in the NIWA CALMET dataset. Predicted meteorological parameters are expected to be virtually identical for both the ARC/NZTA and NIWA data sets. The NIWA data set was developed for the 2007 meteorological year. The NIWA derived CALMET dataset has been used in the assessment of potential air quality effects associated with Western Ring Route: Waterview Connection project (Beca, 2010c). To help maintain consistency between air quality assessments for different sections of the Western Ring Route development, for this assessment a one-year AUSROADS (and AUSPLUME) compatible meteorological input file was developed using meteorological dispersion parameters derived from the NIWA CALMET meteorological model. Dispersion parameters (temperature, wind speed, wind direction, atmospheric stability class, and mixing height) were extracted from a CALMET grid point located near to the Lincoln Road interchange. The meteorological parameters at this location are expected to be representative of typical dispersion conditions in the project area. Predicted wind direction and wind frequencies are shown in Figure 10. The wind rose indicates that southwesterly wind flows are expected to be the predominant wind flows near the highway. The same meteorological input file has been previously used to assess air pollutant levels near the Lincoln Road interchange (Beca, 2010b). Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 41

50 N W E S Wind Speed ( Meters Per Second) Figure 10. Wind speed and wind direction distributions for the AUSROADS meteorological input file for Assessment of Nitrogen Dioxide NO 2 passive sampling and the continuous monitoring data indicate that current NO 2 concentrations near SH16 are currently unlikely to exceed the AQNES and ARAQT air quality criteria level (refer to Section 6). However, due to the reactivity of nitrogen oxides once released in the atmosphere, and the absence of any continuous monitoring data in the area, it is difficult to estimate precisely what actual NO 2 concentrations are likely to be in the vicinity of the motorway. The methodology for estimating nitrogen dioxide concentrations is detailed in Appendix 3. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 42

51 8.7 Model Uncertainties Air quality assessments for new projects rely on statistical models to estimate likely impacts of those projects. The use of statistical models, by the very nature of those models, will introduce a degree of uncertainty into the outcomes, in addition to uncertainty in the raw data used as model inputs. In this assessment, some raw data has been derived from measurements (e.g. ambient air quality and meteorological monitoring and traffic count data), while other data relies on the outputs from other models (e.g. traffic flows predicted by EMME/3, vehicle emission rates from VEPM). No attempt has been made to quantify the degree of uncertainty in the modelling reported in this assessment due to the low pollutant level predicted by the dispersion model and the comparative approach used to assess the effects of the project. The only difference in inputs between the do minimum and with project scenarios in 2026 is the Western Ring Route project itself. Therefore, notwithstanding the inherent uncertainties in the actual results of dispersion modelling, it is reasonable to base conclusions on a comparison between the predicted results of this modelling, both with and without the project. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 43

52 9 Assessment of Effects 9.1 Predicted Pollutant Concentrations in the Residential Areas to the North and South of the Royal Road interchange This section summarises the predicted CO, PM 10, PM 2.5, NO X and benzene concentrations in the residential areas to the south and north of the Royal Road interchange. Concentrations presented in the summary tables correspond to the maximum concentrations predicted at any of the receptors either side of the motorway both to the south and north of the interchange. Concentrations are presented for the three emission scenarios with distance from the centreline of SH Predicted Carbon Monoxide Concentrations Table 20 summarises the predicted maximum incremental and cumulative 8-hour average CO concentrations associated with emissions from SH16 in the residential areas to the north and south of the Royal Road interchange. Predicted cumulative CO concentrations assume a background concentration of 3.0 mg/m 3 (based on the results of air quality monitoring undertaken at the Henderson monitoring station). The distances of m from centreline of SH16 typically represent the fence line of the neighbouring properties where it is highly unlikely that any individual would be exposed for any 8 hour period. The results indicate that maximum 8-hour average CO concentrations associated with SH16 vehicle emissions in 2026 are predicted to decrease from existing levels for both of the modelled emission scenarios. The predicted reductions in 8-hour average CO concentrations are associated with predicted reductions in CO emission rates (see section 7.4.8). Predicted maximum cumulative 8-hour average concentrations are all substantially lower than AQNES of 10 mg/m 3. The results of the modelling indicate that emissions from SH16 are highly unlikely to exceed the AQNES for any of the modelled emission scenarios. Table 20. Predicted maximum 8-hour CO concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16 in residential areas north and south of the Royal Road interchange (mg/m 3 ) Distance from SH16 centreline Do Minimum 2026 With Project Predicted maximum incremental 8-hour average CO concentrations 25-30m m m m Predicted maximum cumulative 8-hour average CO concentrations 30m m m m Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 44

53 Table 21 summarises the predicted maximum incremental and cumulative 99.9 percentile 1-hour average CO concentrations in the residential areas to the north and south of the Royal Road interchange and the estimated worst case cumulative CO concentration assuming a background concentration of 5.0 mg/m 3 (based on the results of air quality monitoring undertaken at the Henderson monitoring station). The results show that predicted maximum 99.9 percentile 1-hour average concentrations decrease from 2006 levels for each of the future emission scenarios modelled. The predicted reductions in 1- hour average CO concentrations are associated with predicted reductions in CO emission rates (see section 7.4.8). Predicted cumulative concentrations at all residential properties are all significantly less than the ARAQT of 30 mg/m 3. The predicted concentrations indicate that the ARAQT is highly unlikely to be exceeded. Table 21. Predicted maximum 99.9 percentile 1-hour CO concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16 in residential areas north and south of the Royal Road interchange (mg/m 3 ) Distance from SH16 centreline Do Minimum 2026 With Project Predicted maximum incremental 99.9 percentile 1- hour average CO concentrations 25-30m m m m Predicted maximum cumulative 99.9 percentile 1- hour average CO concentrations 25-30m m m m Predicted PM 10 Concentrations Table 22 shows the predicted maximum incremental and cumulative 24-hour PM 10 concentrations in the residential areas to the north and south of the Royal Road interchange. A background concentration of 40 µg/m 3 has been assumed based on the maximum 24-hour average PM 10 concentrations recorded at the Henderson monitoring station. The predicted maximum cumulative concentrations assume that worst case background concentrations occur during the 24-hour period when the contribution from the motorway is predicted to be greatest. Predicted cumulative concentrations are therefore expected to be conservative and are likely to overestimate cumulative ground level concentrations. The results show that predicted maximum contributions from traffic emissions in 2026 may slightly decrease from 2006 levels. The predicted reductions in 24-hour average PM 10 concentrations are associated with predicted reductions in PM 10 emission rates (see section 7.4.8). Predicted differences between the emission scenarios are comparatively small and within the uncertainty of the emission and dispersion modelling. The results indicate that the maximum contribution from the Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 45

54 motorway to 24-hour PM 10 levels is likely to remain relatively unchanged in 2026 from current levels. Predicted cumulative concentrations for each of the modelled emission scenarios are all less than the AQNES of 50 µg/m 3. The maximum contribution from the motorway is predicted to be comparatively small compared to background emission sources. Table 22. Predicted maximum 24-hour average PM 10 concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16 in residential areas south of the Royal Road interchange (µg/m 3 ) Distance from SH16 centreline Do Minimum 2026 With Project Predicted maximum incremental 24-hour average PM 10 concentrations 25-30m m m m Predicted maximum cumulative 24-hour average PM 10 concentrations 25-30m m m m Table 23 shows the predicted maximum incremental and cumulative annual average PM 10 concentrations associated with vehicle emissions from SH16 in the residential areas to the north and south of Royal Road. An average annual background concentration of 17 µg/m 3 has been assumed, based on the highest annual average concentration recorded at the Henderson monitoring station between The m receptors are representative of the fence line of residential properties where residents would not be exposed for extended periods of time. The predictions for these receptors have only been included in the table for completeness. The results show that emissions from the motorway are not predicted to be a significant contributor to annual average PM 10 levels compared to background pollutant levels recorded at the Henderson ambient air quality monitoring station. At distances of 50m or more, the maximum contribution from the motorway is predicted to be less than 1 µg/m 3 for all the modelled emissions scenarios. Predicted cumulative PM 10 concentrations at any of the residential properties are less than the ARAQT of 20 µg/m 3. Relative to the ARAQT, there is no significant difference in the predicted contribution of the motorway to the cumulative annual average PM 10 levels between the different modelled emission scenarios. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 46

55 Table 23. Predicted maximum annual average PM 10 concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16 in residential areas near the north and south of the Royal Road interchange (µg/m 3 ) Distance from SH16 centreline Do Minimum 2026 With Project Predicted maximum incremental annual average PM 10 concentrations 25-30m m m m Predicted maximum cumulative annual average PM 10 concentrations 25-30m m m m Predicted PM 2.5 Concentrations Table 24 shows the predicted maximum incremental and cumulative 24-hour average PM 2.5 concentrations associated with vehicle emissions from SH16 in the residential areas to the north and south of Royal Road. A background concentration of 20 µg/m 3 has been assumed (see section 6.4 of this report). Table 24. Predicted maximum 24-hour average PM 2.5 concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16 in residential areas to the north and south of the Royal Road interchange (µg/m 3 ) Distance from SH16 centreline Do Minimum 2026 With Project Predicted maximum incremental 24-hour average PM 2.5 concentrations 25-30m m m m Predicted maximum cumulative 24-hour average PM 2.5 concentrations 25-30m m m m Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 47

56 The results of the dispersion modelling indicate that the predicted maximum incremental contributions from the motorway are comparatively low compared to the ARAQT of 25 µg/m 3 and the assumed background concentration of 20 µg/m 3 (see section 6.1 of this report). At distances over 50m from the motorway centre line, where residents are more likely to be exposed for extended periods of time the maximum contribution from the motorway for the 2026 with project emission scenario is predicted to be less than 1.6 µg/m 3 (approximately 6% of the ARAQT). It is unlikely that the predicted contribution from the motorway at this location could reliably be detected by ambient air monitoring. The table shows that maximum 24-hour average PM 2.5 concentrations for the 2026 scenarios are predicted to be slightly lower than the maximum concentrations predicted for the 2006 emission scenario. The results indicate that none of the 2026 options are likely to result in an increase in maximum PM 2.5 concentrations near SH16. The maximum contribution from the motorway is expected to be comparable to current levels. The results also indicate that any contribution from the motorway to ambient pollutant levels is expected to be relatively small compared to existing background levels and emissions from the motorway are not predicted to result in any exceedance of the ARAQT Predicted Nitrogen Dioxide Concentrations Table 21 shows the predicted maximum contribution to 99.9 percentile 1-hour average NO X concentrations associated with vehicle emissions from SH16 in the residential areas to the north and south of the Royal Road interchange. The table also shows the estimated decrease in maximum 99.9 percentile 1-hour average NO 2 concentrations from 2006 levels using the methodology described in Appendix 3. At receptors 25-30m from the centre of the motorway maximum 99.9 percentile 1-hour average NO 2 concentrations are predicted to decrease slightly for both of the 2026 emission scenarios by 3-4µg/m 3 (i.e. (111 µg/m µg/m 3 )*5%). The predicted reductions in 1-hour average NO 2 concentrations are associated with predicted reductions in NO 2 emission rates (see section 7.4.8). Maximum 99.9 percentile 1-hour average NO 2 concentrations in residential areas near SH16 are currently estimated to be approximately 91 µg/m 3 (46% of the AQNES of 200 µg/m 3 ). Therefore, based on the results of dispersion modelling, at 25-30m from the motorway centreline the predicted maximum cumulative 99.9 percentile 1-hour average NO 2 concentrations for the 2026 with project emission scenario can be estimated to be 88 µg/m 3 (44% of the AQNES), which is comparable to existing levels. The results indicate that the AQNES is unlikely to be exceeded in residential areas as a consequence of the project. The predicted maximum cumulative 99.9 percentile 1-hour average NO 2 concentrations for the 2026 do minimum emission scenario can be estimated to be 87 µg/m 3, essentially the same maximum concentrations predicted for the 2026 with project emission scenario. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 48

57 Table 25. Predicted maximum incremental 99.9 percentile 1-hour average NO X concentrations and differences in NO 2 concentrations compared to 2006 levels associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16 in residential areas to the north and south of the Royal Road interchange (µg/m 3 ) Distance from SH16 centreline Do Minimum 2026 With Project Predicted maximum incremental 99.9 percentile 1- hour average NO X concentrations 25-30m m m m Predicted maximum change in 99.9 percentile 1- hour average NO 2 concentrations* 25-30m m m m *Cumulative NO 2 concentrations have not been reported due to the level of uncertainty in estimating existing NO 2 concentrations with increasing distance from the motorway Table 26 shows the predicted contribution to maximum 24-hour average NO X concentrations associated with vehicle emissions from SH16 in the residential areas to the north and south of the Royal Road interchange. Maximum 24-hour average NO X concentrations for the 2026 with project and do minimum options are both predicted to decrease from 2006 pollutant levels. At distances of 50m from the motorway centreline, predicted maximum concentrations are 54% 68% of the maximum concentration predicted for the 2006 emission scenario. The results indicate that there is no practical difference between the predicted maximum 24-hour NO X concentrations for the two 2026 emission scenarios, indicating that NO 2 concentrations are also unlikely to be significantly different. The results of ambient air monitoring indicate that 24-hour average NO 2 levels are currently unlikely to exceed the ARAQT. It is therefore unlikely that 24-hour average NO 2 levels would exceed the ARAQT with the 2026 with project development options due to the predicted in maximum 24-hour average NO X levels. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 49

58 Table 26. Predicted maximum incremental 24-hour average NO X concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16 in residential areas to the north and south of the Royal Road interchange (µg/m 3 ) Distance from SH16 centreline Do Minimum 2026 With Project Predicted maximum incremental 24-hour average NO X concentrations 25-30m m m m *Cumulative NO 2 concentrations have not been reported due to the level of uncertainty in estimating existing NO 2 concentrations with increasing distance from the motorway An estimate of maximum 24-hour average NO 2 concentration can be calculated using the method detailed in Appendix 3. For an estimated existing maximum 24-hour NO 2 average concentration of 54 µg/m 3, the reduction in maximum 24-hour average NO 2 concentrations can be calculated for the with project emission scenarios to be 1 2 µg/m 3. The decrease in NO 2 concentrations is based on the predicted decrease of µg/m 3 in maximum 24-hour NO X concentrations at residential properties located 25-30m from the motorway and NO 2 to NO X slope factor of 5 9%. Cumulative maximum 24-hour average NO 2 concentrations for 2026 emission scenario can therefore be conservatively estimated to be 53 µg/m 3 (53% of the ARAQT). The results indicate that there is unlikely to be any significant change in existing maximum 24-hour average NO 2 levels Predicted Benzene Concentrations Table 27 shows the predicted maximum cumulative annual average benzene concentrations and the maximum contribution associated with vehicle emissions from SH16 in the residential areas to the north and south of the Royal Road interchange. Cumulative concentrations assume a background level of 1.0 µg/m 3 (see section 6.4 of this report). Predicted concentrations for all of the modelled emission scenarios are significantly less that the annual average ARAQT of 3.6 µg/m 3. Predicted annual average benzene concentrations are predicted to be marginally lower for both of 2026 emission scenarios with slightly lower concentrations associated with the do minimum options, although such differences are likely to be undetectable by ambient monitoring. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 50

59 Table 27. Predicted maximum annual average benzene concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16 in residential areas to the north and south of the Royal Road interchange (µg/m 3 ) Distance from SH16 centreline Do Minimum 2026 With Project Predicted maximum incremental annual average benzene concentrations 25-30m m m m m Predicted maximum cumulative annual average benzene concentrations 25-30m m m m m Predicted Pollutant Concentrations near the Royal Road Interchange This section summarises the predicted air pollutant concentrations at the Royal Road Primary School and Preschool and three residential properties near the Royal Road interchange. The locations of the five discrete receptors are shown in Figure Predicted Carbon Monoxide Concentrations Table 28 shows the predicted maximum 8-hour average incremental and cumulative CO concentrations associated with vehicle emissions from SH16, Makora Road and Royal Road at the Royal Road Primary school and nearby residential properties. Concentrations are presented for each the 2006 and 2026 emission scenario at each of the five discrete receptors, with an assumed background CO concentration of 3 mg/m 3 (based on the results of air quality monitoring undertaken at the Henderson monitoring station). The maximum contribution from the modelled emission sources to 8-hour CO levels are predicted to decrease from 2006 levels for both 2026 with the project and do minimum emission scenarios. Compared to the 8-hour average AQNES of 10 mg/m 3, the maximum contributions from traffic on the motorway, Royal Road and Makora Road are predicted to be negligible. The highest contribution to 8-hour average CO concentrations predicted at the school and residential properties is 0.8% of the AQNES. The results indicate that cumulative CO levels are also highly unlikely to exceed the AQNES as a consequence of emissions from SH16. The predicted reductions in 8-hour average CO concentrations are associated with predicted reductions in CO emission rates (see section 7.4.8). Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 51

60 Table 28. Predicted maximum 8-hour CO concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16, Royal Road, and Makora Road (mg/m 3 ) Discrete Receptor Do Minimum 2026 With Project Predicted maximum incremental 8-hour average CO concentrations School building (RRP1) School field (RRP2) House 1 (H1) House 2 (H2) House 3 (H3) Predicted maximum cumulative 8-hour average CO concentrations School building (RRP1) School field (RRP2) House 1 (H1) House 2 (H2) House 3 (H3) Table 29 shows the predicted maximum incremental and cumulative 99.9 percentile 1-hour average CO concentrations associated with vehicle emissions from SH16, Makora Road and Royal Road. Cumulative concentrations assume a background CO concentration of 5.0 mg/m 3 (based on the results of air quality monitoring undertaken at the Henderson monitoring station). The results show predicted decreases in 99.9 percentile 1-hour average CO concentrations for all of the modelled 2026 emission scenarios compared to existing CO levels. Predicted cumulative concentrations for all of the emission scenarios are significantly less than the ARAQT of 30 mg/m 3. The results indicate that emissions from the motorway are unlikely to result in the ARAQT being exceeded at either the primary school or nearby residential properties. The predicted reductions in 8-hour average CO concentrations are associated with predicted reductions in CO emission rates (see section 7.4.8). Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 52

61 Table 29. Predicted maximum 99.9 percentile 1-hour CO concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16, Royal Road, and Makora Road (mg/m 3 ) Discrete Receptor Do Minimum 2026 With Project Predicted maximum incremental 99.9 percentile 1-hour average CO concentrations School building (RRP1) School field (RRP2) House 1 (H1) House 2 (H2) House 3 (H3) Predicted maximum cumulative 99.9 percentile 1-hour average CO concentrations School building (RRP1) School field (RRP2) House 1 (H1) House 2 (H2) House 3 (H3) Predicted PM 10 Concentrations Table 30 shows the predicted maximum incremental and cumulative 24-hour average PM 10 concentrations associated with vehicle emissions from SH16, Makora Road and Royal Road. It should be noted that children are highly unlikely to be exposed for 24-hours at the Royal Road Primary School, particularly on the school fields. It is even less likely they would be present at these locations during worst case dispersive and background pollutant conditions. A background concentration of 40 µg/m 3 has been assumed based on the maximum 24-hour average PM 10 concentrations recorded at the Henderson monitoring station. The results of the modelling indicate that at there is almost no difference between the predicted maximum 24-hour PM 10 concentrations for the 2006 and 2026 emission scenarios at any of the five discrete receptors. The results indicate that PM 10 levels are unlikely to change significantly as a consequence of predicted increase in traffic volumes. It is unlikely that the predicted differences between the emission scenarios would be detectable by ambient monitoring. Predicted maximum contributions of traffic on SH16, Royal Road, and Makora Road to 24-hour PM 10 levels are predicted to be comparatively small compared to the AQNES of 50 µg/m 3 and worst case background pollutant levels. The highest contribution is predicted at receptor H3 (6% of the AQNES), and occurs at the boundary of the property where people are unlikely to be present for any 24-hour period. In addition, predicted concentrations do not increase beyond 2006 levels. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 53

62 Table 30. Predicted maximum 24-hour average PM 10 concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16, Royal Road, and Makora Road (µg/m 3 ) Discrete Receptor Do Minimum 2026 With Project Predicted maximum incremental 24-hour average PM 10 concentrations School building (RRP1) School field (RRP2) House 1 (H1) House 2 (H2) House 3 (H3) Predicted maximum cumulative 24-hour average PM 10 concentrations School building (RRP1) School field (RRP2) House 1 (H1) House 2 (H2) House 3 (H3) Cumulative concentrations for all the emission scenarios are all predicted to be less than the AQNES even when worst case background pollutant levels are assumed. The results indicating that AQNES is unlikely to be exceeded at any of the discrete receptors as consequence of emissions from the motorway and associated emission sources. Table 31 shows the predicted maximum incremental and cumulative annual average PM 10 concentrations associated with vehicle emissions from SH16, Makora Road and Royal Road. It should be noted that it is extremely unlikely any individual would be present at the school for any extended period of time. An average annual background concentration of 17 µg/m 3 has been assumed, based on the highest annual average concentration recorded at the Henderson monitoring station between The results indicate that ambient annual average PM 10 levels are unlikely to increase at the discrete receptors as a consequence of vehicle emissions from SH16, Royal Road, and Makora Road for either the do minimum or with project development options. The maximum contribution to annual average PM 10 levels from the motorway and surrounding roads is predicted to be 1.1 µg/m 3, or less than 6% of the ARAQT of 20 µg/m 3, for the 2026 with project. At the school the maximum contribution from the modelled roads is predicted to be approximately 2% of the ARAQT. Predicted cumulative PM 10 concentrations are all less than the ARAQT of 20 µg/m 3. The most significant contribution to cumulative PM 10 concentrations is predicted to arise from background emission sources. The results indicate that emissions from SH16 are very unlikely to result in an exceedance of the ARAQT. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 54

63 Table 31. Predicted maximum annual average PM 10 concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16, Makora Road and Royal Road (µg/m 3 ) Discrete Receptor Do Minimum 2026 With Project Predicted maximum incremental annual average PM 10 concentrations School building (RRP1) School field (RRP2) House 1 (H1) House 2 (H2) House 3 (H3) Predicted maximum cumulative annual average PM 10 concentrations School building (RRP1) School field (RRP2) House 1 (H1) House 2 (H2) House 3 (H3) Predicted PM 2.5 Concentrations Table 32 shows the predicted maximum incremental and cumulative 24-hour average PM 2.5 concentrations associated with vehicle emissions from SH16, Royal Road and Makora Road. It is unlikely that individuals at the primary school would be exposed for any 24-hour period. It is also unlikely children would be present at the school during the evening traffic peak and possibly only for a short period of time during the morning peak traffic period. The maximum cumulative concentrations in the table assume a background PM 2.5 concentration level of 20 µg/m 3 (see section 6.4 of this report). These results show that the maximum contribution from the motorway and surrounding roads to 24- hour average PM 2.5 levels are not predicted to change significantly from existing levels for either of the 2026 emission scenarios. It is unlikely that the predicted differences between the emission scenarios would be detectable by ambient monitoring. The maximum predicted contribution to 24-hour average PM 2.5 concentrations associated with vehicle emissions from SH16, Royal Road and Makora Road is 2.4 µg/m 3 at receptor H3 (less than 10% of the ARAQT of 25 µg/m 3 ). The results of the modelling indicate the contribution from the motorway is expected to comparatively small compared with background emission sources. Emissions from the motorway are not predicted to result in any exceedance of the ARAQT. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 55

64 Table 32. Predicted maximum 24-hour average PM 2.5 concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16, Makora Road, and Royal Road (µg/m 3 ) Discrete Receptor Do Minimum 2026 With Project Predicted maximum incremental 24-hour average PM 2.5 concentrations School building (RRP1) School field (RRP2) House 1 (H1) House 2 (H2) House 3 (H3) Predicted maximum cumulative 24-hour average PM 2.5 concentrations School building (RRP1) School field (RRP2) House 1 (H1) House 2 (H2) House 3 (H3) Predicted Nitrogen Dioxide Concentrations Table 33 shows the predicted maximum contribution to 99.9 percentile 1-hour average NO X concentrations associated with vehicle emissions from SH16, Royal Road and Makora. The table also shows the predicted incremental change in maximum 99.9 percentile 1-hour average NO 2 concentrations using the method described in Appendix 3. The table shows that the maximum 99.9 percentile 1-hour average NO 2 concentrations in the area are predicted to decrease in 2026 from 2006 levels for both of the modelled emission scenarios. Slightly greater decreases are predicted for the do minimum emission scenario compared to the with project emission scenario; however these differences are small compared to the AQNES. The differences can be attributed to the increase in traffic volumes predicted for the with project development option. The predicted reductions in 1-hour average NO 2 concentrations are associated with predicted reductions in NO 2 emission rates (see section 7.4.8). The ambient air monitoring NO 2 concentrations measured near SH16 and the Royal Road interchange indicates that current NO 2 levels are statistically unlikely to exceed the ARAQT (see section 6 of this report). The predicted decreases in the maximum 99.9 percentile 1-hour average NO 2 concentrations for the 2026 emission scenarios therefore indicate that the AQNES is also unlikely to be exceeded in 2026 as a consequence of proposed projects. A worst case maximum cumulative 99.9 percentile 1-hour average concentrations for the 2026 with project emission scenario can be estimated based on the passive monitoring data collected at Makora Road kerbside monitoring site (AUC145). Based on the passive monitoring data, a worst case existing 99.9 percentile 1-hour average concentration of 134 µg/m 3 NO 2 can be estimated. The predicted maximum 99.9 percentile 1-hour average concentrations at any of the nearby houses for the with project scenario can therefore be estimated as µg/m 3 (approximately 67% of the AQNES). The results indicate the AQNES for NO 2 is most unlikely to be exceeded. In addition, Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 56

65 the predicted cumulative concentrations using a background concentration based on the results of kerbside passive NO 2 sampling is likely to somewhat overestimate actual pollutant levels at locations further away from the intersection. Table 33. Predicted maximum 99.9 percentile 1-hour average NO X concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16, Makora Road, and Royal Road (µg/m 3 ) Discrete Receptor Do Minimum 2026 With Project Predicted maximum incremental 99.9 percentile 1-hour average NO X concentrations School building (RRP1) School field (RRP2) House 1 (H1) House 2 (H2) House 3 (H3) Predicted maximum incremental change in 99.9 percentile 1-hour average NO 2 concentrations School building (RRP1) School field (RRP2) House 1 (H1) House 2 (H2) House 3 (H3) Table 34 shows the predicted maximum incremental 24-hour average NO X concentrations associated with vehicle emissions from SH16, Royal Road and Makora Road. It should be noted that individuals are unlikely to be present at the Royal Road Primary receptor points for any 24-hour period. Similarly, the residential receptors are located near the property fence lines where individuals are unlikely to be present for any extended period of time. Maximum 24-hour average NO X concentrations are predicted to decrease between the 2006 and the 2026 emissions scenarios. The results indicate that the contribution from SH16 is predicted to be comparable for both the 2026 do minimum and with project emission scenarios. At the discrete receptors, maximum 24-hour average NO X concentrations are predicted to decrease by 4 17 µg/m 3. Using the method detailed in Appendix 3, maximum 24-hour concentration NO 2 are predicted to decrease by less than 1 µg/m 3. The predicted decrease in concentration is within the uncertainty of the method. The results would suggest that maximum 24-hour average NO 2 concentrations are unlikely to vary significantly from existing levels. A worst case assessment of the existing background levels near the interchange can be derived from the Makora Road passive monitoring site. The estimate average maximum 24-hour average NO 2 concentration at this site is 78 µg/m 3 (78% of the ARAQT). At distances further from the kerbside monitoring location, maximum 24-hour average concentrations are likely to be lower. The results of the dispersion modelling indicate that the ARAQT is unlikely to be exceeded in 2026 as a consequence of the proposed development. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 57

66 Table 34. Predicted maximum 24-hour average NO X concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16, Makora Road and Royal Road (µg/m 3 ) Discrete Receptor Do Minimum 2026 With Project Predicted maximum incremental 24-hour average NO X concentrations School building (RRP1) School field (RRP2) House 1 (H1) House 2 (H2) House 3 (H3) Predicted Benzene Concentrations Table 35 shows the predicted maximum annual average incremental and cumulative benzene concentrations associated with vehicle emissions from SH16, Makora Road and Royal Road. A background benzene concentration of 1 µg/m 3 has been assumed based on the passive monitoring data. The maximum contribution from traffic emissions to benzene concentrations at any of the receptors for the 2026 with project emission scenario is predicted to be 0.16 µg/m 3 (approximately 4% of ARAQT of 3.6 µg/m 3 ). Cumulative concentrations are predicted to be less than 1.16 µg/m 3 (32% of the ARAQT). The results of the modelling exercise indicate that benzene concentrations are very unlikely to exceed the ARAQT at any of the discrete receptors. Table 35. Predicted maximum annual benzene concentrations associated with motor vehicle emissions from SH16, Royal Road, and Makora Road (µg/m 3 ) Discrete Receptor Do Minimum 2026 With Project Predicted maximum incremental annual average benzene concentrations School building (RRP1) School field (RRP2) House 1 (H1) House 2 (H2) House 3 (H3) Predicted maximum cumulative annual average benzene concentrations School building (RRP1) School field (RRP2) House 1 (H1) House 2 (H2) House 3 (H3) Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 58

67 10 Effects Assessment: Construction Activities 10.1 Introduction Dust The widening of SH16 between the Hobsonville interchange and the Huruhuru Road Bridge and the realignment of the SH16 Royal Road Interchange will entail relatively large scale earthworks. Exposed earthworks can be a significant source of dust. Details of the planned earthworks are presented in the Engineering Report (Aurecon, 2010). Dust can affect human health and plant life along the edge of the earthworks area, can be a nuisance to the surrounding public, and can contribute to sediment loads by dust depositing in areas without sediment control measures. Sediments deposited on sealed public roads can also result in a dust nuisance. Rainfall, water evaporation, and wind speed, are meteorological conditions having the greatest effect on dust mobilisation. Dust discharges from earthworks typically fall into the larger particle sizes, generally referred to as deposited particulates. Deposited particulates are particulates having an aerodynamic size range greater than about 20µm. As a class of material such particulates have minimal physical health impact (particles have only limited penetration into the respiratory tract), but may cause nuisance in sensitive areas due to soiling. Soiling includes excessive dust deposits on houses, cars, and washing and excessive dust within houses. Construction work associated with the widening of SH16 will not be the only source of dust in the project area. For example, other construction activities may also be occurring at the same time, while re-entrainment of road dust on existing roads will also contribute to overall dust levels Odour Road construction activities in themselves are not usually regarded as a source of odour (aside from engine exhaust emissions from construction traffic) Vehicle Exhaust Emissions There will be discharges of engine exhaust emissions from construction traffic associated with the proposal. These will include fine particles (PM 10 and PM 2.5 ), NO x, CO, SO 2 and organics. Most construction vehicles are diesel powered, and are therefore likely to emit larger quantities of PM 10, PM 2.5, NO x and organics than the general vehicle fleet (which is mostly petrol driven) Approach to the Assessment of Effects from Construction Activities This assessment of the effects of discharges of dust from the project focuses on the circumstances that are likely to generate dust associated with construction activities and the measures to prevent dust nuisance. With respect to dust discharges, this section will firstly summarise dust discharges in general and the various sources of dust discharges associated with construction activities and the factors that contribute to dust discharges from those source; then identify specific sources on a sector by sector basis, along with receptors that are likely to be sensitive to those discharges. Finally this section will consider appropriate mitigation, control and monitoring measures. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 59

68 10.2 Dust Generation during Construction Potential sources of dust and other air contaminant discharges which are able to cause nuisance beyond the site boundary during adverse weather conditions if adequate controls and mitigation measures are not adopted are: Dust from roads and access areas generated by trucks and other mobile machinery movements during dry and windy conditions Excavation and disturbance of dry material Loading and unloading of dusty materials to and from trucks Smoke and odour from diesel-engine machinery and truck exhausts Stockpiling of materials including material placement and removal. Dust may be generated from dry undisturbed surfaces at wind speeds greater than 5-10 m/s (10 20 knots). Wind can transport dust mobilised from dry surfaces by machinery or truck movements or mechanical disturbance. Transportation of dust is dependent on dust particle size and wind speed. Rainfall, rate of water evaporation, and wind speed, are conditions having the greatest effect on dust mobilisation. Dust generation by truck and machinery movements in dry conditions is a function of vehicle speed, number of wheels and vehicle size. Judder bars or humps to reduce vehicle speed are not recommended as they can cause spillage of load and may damage loaded vehicles. Unpaved roads and yard areas can be very dusty during dry weather. This can be aggravated if surfaces are allowed to get muddy during wet weather which eventually dries out and then becomes ground-up by vehicle movements. Carrying out extensive earthworks during dry conditions exposes large areas to the effects of wind while being disturbed by machinery. Excavated areas left exposed during dry windy conditions can be significant dust sources. Stockpiling of topsoil and subsoil, and in particular dry dusty materials, may also be major dust sources during stockpile formation when exposed to strong winds. The following activities are likely to be potential sources of dust: Construction of a haul/access road within the boundary of the motorway designation Earthworks associated with the motorway widening itself Demolition of the existing Royal Road overbridge Construction and operation of a contractors yard. Details of locations of contractors yard(s), laydown areas, haul roads etc. have not been finalised. However, the Engineering Report (Aurecon, 2010) states: The project is significantly constrained by residential properties running along the length of this project. Therefore to minimise land disturbance to these properties the temporary construction areas have been minimised as much as practicable, with the majority of the work occurring within the limitations of the proposed motorway designation. The most likely location for the contractors yard will be between the eastbound Royal Road Onramp and the motorway itself. Within the proposed designation, this location provides the maximum practicable separation between residential areas and construction activities associated with the project. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 60

69 10.3 Factors Influencing Dust Generation There are five primary factors which influence the potential for dust to be generated from the site - these are: Wind speed across the exposed surfaces The percentage of fine particles in exposed surface material Moisture content of that material The area of exposed surface Mechanical disturbance of material including via excavation and filling, loading and unloading of materials and vehicle movements. Systems for controlling dust emissions should include methods that modify the condition of the materials so that it has a lesser tendency to lift with the wind or disturbances such as vehicle movements and methods that reduce the velocity of the wind at the surface. Watering of exposed surfaces and materials that may be disturbed is an important method of control. The MfE Good Practice Guide for Assessing and Managing the Environmental Effects of Dust Emissions (Dust GPG) recommends that, as a general guide, the typical water requirements for dust control in most parts of New Zealand are up to 1 litre per square meter per hour. The dust prevention methods detailed in Section 10.4 of this report are methods that are typically found to be effective. They can be used alone or in combination depending on the circumstances. This list is not exhaustive and other methods may be found to be effective. In addition to consideration of dust sources and factors that may influence dust generation, any assessment of the effects of dust must consider the distance that any dust may travel from the sources. In general, although construction activities can generate dust with a wide range of particle sizes, it is the larger dust particles that tend to be associated with dust nuisance from construction activities. However, the larger the particle size, the less distance it will travel in light to moderate winds. The MfE Dust GPG states: When dust particles are released into the air they tend to fall back to ground at a rate proportional to their size. This is called the settling velocity. For a particle 10 microns in diameter, the settling velocity is about 0.5 cm/sec, while for a particle 100 microns in diameter it is about 45 cm/sec, in still air. To put this into a practical context, consider the generation of a dust cloud at a height of one metre above the ground. Any particles 100 microns in size will take just over two seconds to fall to the ground, while those 10 microns in size will take more than 200 seconds. In a 10-knot wind (5 m/sec), the 100-micron particles would only be blown about 10 metres away from the source while the 10-micron particles have the potential to travel about a kilometre. Fine particles can therefore be widely dispersed, while the larger particles simply settle out in the immediate vicinity of the source. (MfE, 2001) It should be noted that this theoretical calculation takes no account of re-entrainment of dust or of the effects of turbulent airflow. There have been a number of studies undertaken using field measurements of suspended particulate at different distances from road sources (eg Cowherd and Grelinger, 2003, Cowherd, Grelinger and Gebhart, 2006, Etymezian et al, 2004). Overall, the conclusions from these studies appear to be that dust travels much further under unstable Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 61

70 atmospheric conditions than in stable conditions 3. These conclusions emphasise the need for effective mitigation measures to be applied, especially during hot, dry weather. Based on the discussion regarding particle size in the MfE Dust GPG and the results of research in to dust entrainment, only premises within approximately 100m of significant dust sources have been considered as potentially sensitive receptors for assessing the effects of construction dust. The purpose of the controls outlined in the following sections will be to prevent (if possible) or otherwise minimise the effects of dust emissions on those premises Receiving Environment As indicated in section 10.2, premises within approximately 100m of significant dust sources should be considered as potentially sensitive receptors for assessing the effects of construction dust. The section of SH16 between the Huruhuru Road Bridge and the Hobsonville Interchange passes through established residential areas and close to Royal Road Primary School and Preschool. Locations of sensitive activities are summarised in Table 36. Table 36. Receptors Sensitive to the Effects of Construction Dust Location Description Receptor Type Triangle Road Both sides of road south of Lincoln Park Avenue Residential Huruhuru Road Both sides of road Residential Jarrah Place Both sides of road Residential Ginders Drive Both sides of road Residential Kasia Close Both sides of road Residential Holmes Drive South Both sides of road north of Lansdale Place Residential Makora Road East side of road north of Kasia Close Residential Lansdale Place West side of road Residential Cedar Heights Avenue Both sides of road Residential Ruze Vida Drive Numbers and Residential Royal Road Primary School School School Royal Road Preschool School Early Childcare In addition, residential properties within 100m of SH16 in the new subdivision to the west of SH16, north of Royal Road Primary School, should be considered as sensitive to the effects of construction dust from the project. By the time this section of SH16 is widened, this will be an established residential area. 3 Atmospheric stability refers to the amount of vertical movement of air, and therefore of dust particles the more unstable the atmosphere is, the more vertical movement occurs. Atmospheric stability is heavily influenced by temperature, humidity and wind speed stable conditions are typical of cool cloudless winter nights with low wind speeds when surface inversions may form, while unstable conditions are typical of hot cloudless summer days when there is a high level of convective heating. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 62

71 10.5 Dust Mitigation and Management Before considering the effects of dust from those specific activities that will be undertaken as part of the construction of the widening of SH16, it is appropriate to outline the dust control and mitigation measures that may be applied. This section of the report presents a range of control and mitigation measures designed to prevent or minimise adverse dust effects on the environment and local community beyond the boundary of the construction site. The specific activities that may generate fugitive dust emissions have been identified in section 10.2, while sensitive neighbours that may be affected by such emissions and the control and monitoring methods that should be applied to each of those activities to avoid dust nuisance are identified in sections 10.4 and Specific details of methods to be used for dust control and monitoring would normally be contained in a Contractor s Environmental Management Plan. Wind Fencing Wind break fencing of suitable length, height and porosity reduces prevailing wind speed and therefore the impact of dust on surrounding areas. Effectiveness is greatest where fencing is perpendicular to the prevailing wind direction with a porosity of about 50%. Vehicles, Machinery and Generators Dust discharges from activities can be significantly reduced by using water sprinkler systems during dry conditions. Adequate dust suppression is necessary to provide reasonable working conditions as well as minimising impacts upon sensitive receptors beyond the boundary of the site. Water should be applied to haul roads via water trucks and sprinklers in sufficient quantity to suppress dust but to avoid generating muddy conditions or sediment runoff. Semi-permanent working areas and construction site access roads should be constructed with an appropriate base, kept metalled, and kept damp using watering trucks or fixed sprinkler systems. Prior agreements should be made with transport operators to ensure that vehicles used on public roads are appropriately maintained to minimise exhaust smoke and odour, and that tailgates are secure and all loads are covered. Material tracked out from the site onto public roads, if significant, will be removed by suction sweeper. Vehicles leaving site from unsealed surfaces can be washed down to remove dust and/or coagulated material where necessary. This would occur at selected site exits either manually or automatically via the use of high pressure water hoses, jets or water assisted brushing. Detergents or hydrocarbon based liquids should not be used for vehicle cleaning or dust suppression. The imposition of vehicle speed limits is a practical measure to minimise dust emissions caused by construction traffic. This can be done through speed restrictions on site and training of drivers regarding the sensitivity of the local environment. Normal signage will inform drivers of the maximum speed limit. If the control of vehicle speed on site becomes an issue, the implementation of electronic selective speed signs should be considered. The maximum speed limit on site should to be 10 km/h or less. Loading and unloading of trucks should be conducted in a manner which minimises the discharge of dust. This includes the minimisation of drop heights during the loading of vehicles to minimise dust generation. Formation and Maintenance of Roads, Other Accessways, and Parking Areas Roads, accessways, and parking areas, used by vehicles and mobile machinery that are not hard paved should be kept well metalled. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 63

72 All roads, accessways, and parking areas that are liable to dry out and generate excessive dust should be regularly watered by a watering truck or by equivalent means during periods of low rainfall. Significant spills of materials that may cause dust when dry should be collected, swept, scraped up or hosed down as soon as practicable. Earthworks The extent of earthworks carried out during dry conditions should be limited as far as practicable to a manageable surface area to minimise dust generation while being disturbed by machinery. Excavated areas left exposed during dry windy conditions and liable to be dusty should be watered as necessary, or preferably stabilised e.g. through metaling, grassing or mulching, Cleared areas not required for construction, access or for parking, if liable to cause excessive dust during windy conditions, should be stabilised e.g. through metaling, grassing, mulching or the establishment of vegetative cover. Haul roads and site laydowns should be metalled to minimise mud during wet conditions and dust during dry and windy conditions. Stockpiles and Spoil Heaps Stockpiles of topsoil, sand, and other materials liable to dry out and generate significant dust during windy conditions, should be monitored and options such as dampening, allowing piles crust over, or covering, will be considered as appropriate. Stockpile margins should be defined to minimise spread onto access areas. Drop heights should be minimised to the extent practicable during stockpiling activities to minimise dust generation. In areas with ongoing dust issues or in close proximity to sensitive receptors water sprays and/or sprinklers should be considered to suppress and control dust generated from the site. Water spraying requires uniform application rates consistent with evaporation rates. Spraying can result in over-watering. Excessive use of water during building-up of stockpiles can saturate their bulk, but the surface will still dry out and become dusty. Excessive wetting (especially during building-up of stockpiles) may cause flow slides and cause slips. Typically, the loss of approximately 5% of moisture from the surface of aggregate may make the material sufficiently dry to result in dust generation during mechanical disturbance, and dust from an undisturbed surface under strong wind conditions. Water application rates, and therefore the capacity of the water spray system, should be carefully evaluated during the design phase Dust Monitoring A dust monitoring programme should be implemented during the construction and earthworks phases of the development. The objective of this programme is to identify conditions where dust nuisance may occur and to asses whether the proposed mitigation and control measures as implemented are effective in minimising dust emissions. The recommended method for monitoring deposited dust is the use of bucket deposition gauges, while TSP can be monitored by gravimetric samplers or continuous analysers. Notwithstanding the fact that a trigger level for deposited dust is included in both the MfE Dust GPG and TP152, the ARC s guidance given in TP152 does not generally recommend them except for vegetation monitoring. As any measurements are averaged over 30 days it is difficult to distinguish the contribution of various sources over the long sampling period. (ARC, 2002) Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 64

73 Table 37 outlines the dust monitoring methodology that is proposed. The frequency of monitoring is defined, although it should be noted that in the instance of strong winds, emissions of dust off-site or following a complaint, additional the monitoring may be required. Table 37. Dust Monitoring Programme Monitoring activities Active monitoring of total suspended particulate using e-bams or equivalent Inspect land adjacent to the site, construction exits and adjoining roads for the presence of dust deposits Check weather forecasts for strong winds and rainfall. Observe weather conditions, wind via observations (Beaufort scale) 4 and presence of rain. Inspect all unsealed surfaces (including earthworks sites) for dampness and to ensure that surface exposure is minimised. Inspect all sealed surfaces to ensure that they are clean and all spillages have been cleared. Inspect stockpiles to ensure enclosure, covering, stabilisation or a damp condition. Ensure stockpile height is less than 3m. Inspect dust generating activities to ensure dust emissions are effectively controlled Monitor dust generating activities and water application rate Inspect watering systems (sprays and water carts) to ensure equipment is maintained and functioning to effectively dampen all exposed areas. Inspect wheel wash equipment to ensure effective operation Ensure site windbreak fences are intact. Frequency Continuous Twice daily Daily Daily and as conditions change Daily and as conditions change Daily Daily Daily and as new activities are commenced In winds over 5.5 m/s Weekly Weekly Weekly 10.7 Vehicle Exhaust Emissions Excessive smoke and odour from diesel-fuelled trucks, generators and other machinery is primarily caused by poor engine maintenance. Failure to maintain air filters, fuel filters, and fuel injectors to manufacturer s specifications may cause excessive black smoke and objectionable odour. Excessive smoke and odour discharges from trucks, earth moving machinery and generators, while unlikely, could cause comments from neighbours under adverse meteorological conditions if vehicles and machinery are not well maintained. Contractors should be required to keep trucks and machinery used on-site appropriately maintained Assessment of Effects The discharge of contaminants into air (i.e. dust) from construction activities is expressly permitted under Rule 4.5.G of the PARP: ALW, which states: The discharge of contaminants into air from earthworks or from the construction, maintenance or repair of roads (road works) is a Permitted Activity, subject to conditions (a) to (c) of Rule Condition (a) of Rule states: Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 65

74 That beyond the boundary of the premises where the activity is being undertaken there shall be no noxious, dangerous, offensive or objectionable odour, dust, particulate, smoke or ash; It is, therefore, imperative that discharges of dust from construction activities are sufficiently controlled (mitigated) so that they are not regarded as offensive or objectionable. To this end, effective dust management must be undertaken, which may include proposed controls as described in Section 10.4 of this report. Given the proximity of residential areas to much of this section of SH16 and to the Royal Road interchange, it is essential that effective dust control and monitoring are applied in this area. This monitoring should include continuous TSP monitoring; however, it would not be appropriate at this stage to specify where that monitoring should take place or what method should be used. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 66

75 11 Summary and Conclusions The results of the dispersion modelling indicate that, for all of the modelled emission scenarios, predicted pollutant concentrations are unlikely or highly unlikely to exceed the relevant AQNES and ARAQT air quality criteria. Pollutant concentrations are predicted to be below the air quality criteria, both at the residential properties to the north and south of Royal Road interchange and at sensitive receptors located near the Royal Road interchange. At each of the receptors maximum pollutant concentrations are predicted to reduce in 2026 emission scenarios compared to the 2006 emission scenario. However, differences in predictions are relatively small when compared to criteria levels and background pollutant levels, particularly if the uncertainties associated with the emission and dispersion models are considered. The results suggest that existing pollutant levels are likely to be similar to those in 2026 (if constant background pollutant levels are assumed). Similarly, although lower pollutant levels are predicted for the 2026 do minimum emission scenarios compared to the with project emission scenarios, these differences are generally small and within the uncertainties of the model assumptions. The lower predicted concentrations can largely be attributed to the lower traffic volumes that are predicted without the project being built. Lower pollutant concentrations are generally predicted for the 2026 emission scenarios compared to the 2006 baseline emission scenario, despite the forecast increase in vehicle volumes. This is due to the assumptions made in the Vehicle Emissions Prediction Model regarding the relative age of the future vehicle fleet and consequent improvements in fuel efficiency and emission control. Predicted pollutant concentrations are shown to decrease rapidly with distance from the motorway. At distances of 100m or more from the centreline of SH16, the maximum contribution of the motorway to ambient pollutant levels is predicted to be minimal when compared to the AQNES and ARAQT, particularly with regards to predicted benzene, CO and PM 10 concentrations. The dispersion modelling assessment reported herein indicates that the proposed widening of SH16 will have minimal adverse effects on air quality in the surrounding area. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 67

76 12 References Abbot, J Primary nitrogen dioxide emissions from road traffic: analysis of monitoring data. Report to Department for the Environment, Food and Rural Affairs; Scottish Executive; Welsh Assembly Government; Department of the Environment for Northern Ireland. Auckland Regional Council, Proposed Auckland Regional Plan: Air, Land and Water Plan Indicating Provisions Appealed Updated November Aurecon, Western Ring Route: Huruhuru Road Bridge to Westgate Constructability Report. Report prepared for the NZ Transport Agency. Ausroads, Review of Air Quality Models for Roads. AP-R249/04, Ausroads. Beca, 2010b. Western Ring Route. SH16 Lincoln Road Interchange Air Quality Assessment. Report prepared for the NZ Transport Agency. Beca, 2010c. Western Ring Route Waterview Connection: Air Quality Assessment. Report prepared for the NZ Transport Agency Cowherd, C Jr and Grelinger, MA, Characterization of Enhanced Dust Deposition on Vegetation Groundcover Bordering Emission Sources; Prepared by Midwest Research Institute for U.S. Army Construction Engineering Research Laboratory, June Cowherd, C Jr, Grelinger, MA and Gebhart, DL. Development of an Emission Reduction Term for Near Source Depletion. 15th International Emission Inventory Conference "Reinventing Inventories - New Ideas in New Orleans. US Environmental Protection Agency, May Etymezian, V, Ahonen, S, Nikolic,, D, Gillies, J Kuhns, H, Gillette, D and Veranth, J. Deposition and Removal of Fugitive Dust in the Arid Southwestern United States: Measurements and Model Results. Journal of Air & Waste Management Association 54: , 2004 Golders Associates/Kingett Mitchell, New Zealand Steel: PM 10 Modelling Assessment. August Minoura H., Ito A., NO 2 Behavior analysis in a roadside atmosphere for the validation of the RSAQSM. The seventh International Conference on Urban Climate, 29 June - 3 July, Yokohama, Japan. Kar K., Baral B., Elder S., Development of a Vehicle Emissions Prediction Model. Energy and Fuels Research Unit, University of Auckland. Laxen D., Marner B., Analysis of the Relationship Between 1-hour and Annual Mean Nitrogen Dioxide at UK Roadside and Kerbside Monitoring Sites. Report prepared for DEFRA and the Devolved Administrations. Longley I., Olivares G., Khan B., Zawar-Reza P., The determinant of levels of secondary particulate pollutant and nitrogen dioxide in urban New Zealand Part 1. Report prepared for FRST, NIWA Client Report AKL Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 68

77 Metcalfe J., Instructions for using the vehicle emissions prediction model (VEPM) Version 3.0. Report prepared for the Auckland Regional Council by Emission Impossible Ltd. Ministry for the Environment Good practice guide for assessing and managing the environmental effects of dust emissions. ISBN Ministry for the Environment, Wellington. Ministry for the Environment Good Practice Guide for Atmospheric Dispersion Modelling. ISBN Ministry for the Environment, Wellington. Ministry for the Environment Updated Users Guide to Resource Management (National Environmental Standards Relating to Certain Air Pollutants, Dioxins and Other Toxics) Regulations 2004 (Including Amendments 2005). Ministry for the Environment Good Practice Guide for Assessing Discharges to Air from Land Transport. ISBN Ministry for the Environment, Wellington. NZ Transport Agency, 2009a. New Zealand motor vehicle registration statistics. NZ Transport Agency, Wellington. NZ Transport Agency, 2009b. NZTA Guideline for Producing Air Quality Assessments for State Highway Projects (Draft), NZ Transport Agency, Wellington Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 69

78 13 Glossary Term Auckland Airshed Definition The Auckland Urban Airshed, which coincides with the Metropolitan Urban Limit for Auckland AAQG New Zealand Ambient Air Quality Guidelines ARAQT Auckland Regional Air Quality Targets AQNES AUSROADS Beta Attenuation Monitor The Resource Management (National Environmental Standards Relating to Certain Air Pollutants, Dioxins and Other Toxins) Regulations 2004 A line source Gaussian plume dispersion model for predicting the near road impact of vehicle emissions A continuous particulate monitor CALMET CO A diagnostic 3-dimensional meteorological model, used to derive meteorological data for CALPUFF and AUSROADS Carbon monoxide EMME/3 A travel demand forecasting system for urban, regional, and national transportation planning PARP: ALW Proposed Auckland Regional Plan: Air, Land and Water, November 2009 (including provisions appealed) NO Nitric Oxide NOx Oxides of Nitrogen NO 2 Nitrogen Dioxide SO 2 Sulphur Dioxide TP152 ARC Technical Publication Number 152 Assessing Discharges of Contaminants into Air - Draft TSP total suspended particulate VEPM The Vehicle Emissions Prediction Model, developed for the Auckland Regional Council WHO World Health Organisation Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 70

79 Appendix 1 Modelled Diurnal Traffic Volumes and Emission Rates

80

81 Modelled diurnal traffic volumes and emission rates Table 1.1. Modelled traffic volumes for the AM peak (7am - 9am) and PM peak (4pm - 6pm) hours are based on those predicted by the traffic model. For other hours it has been assumed that the diurnal traffic profile is comparable to weekday traffic volumes recorded for the Royal Road to Hobsonville sections of the motorway; and that the ratio of each hour s average traffic volume to the average inter-peak traffic volume (9am - 6pm) remains relatively constant for all of the modelled emission scenarios. Traffic volumes for each of the non-peak hours have been estimated by multiplying the predicted inter-peak traffic volume by the corresponding hour s inter-peak ratio calculated from the traffic count data. To ensure that the modelled daily traffic volumes remained equal to the predicted daily average traffic volume, for the hours between 6pm - 7am an additional weighting factor is applied to each hour. Separate diurnal profiles have been constructed for SH16 northbound and southbound traffic. The diurnal emission and traffic profiles for each of the road links included in the dispersion modelling assessment is provided in Appendix 1 and 2. A single diurnal profile has been used to simulate diurnal traffic travelling both directions on Makora Road and Royal Road. It has been assumed that emission rates per vehicle kilometre travelled for the periods between 6pm and 7am are equivalent to those observed during the inter-peak period. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 73

82 Hourly traffic volumes and composite vehicle fleet emission rates for SH16 at the south residential areas scenario Time Westbound SH16 Eastbound SH16 Traffic PM 10 NO X CO VOC Traffic PM 10 NO X CO VOC count (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) count (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) 1: : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 74

83 Table 1.2. Hourly traffic volumes and composite vehicle fleet emission rates for SH16 at the south residential areas do minimum scenario Time Westbound SH16 Eastbound SH16 Traffic PM 10 NO X CO VOC Traffic PM 10 NO X CO VOC count (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) count (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) 1: : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 75

84 Table 1.3. Hourly traffic volumes and composite vehicle fleet emission rates for SH16 at the south residential areas with project scenario Time Westbound SH16 Eastbound SH16 Traffic PM 10 NO X CO VOC Traffic PM 10 NO X CO VOC count (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) count (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) 1: : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 76

85 Table 1.4. Hourly traffic volumes and composite vehicle fleet emission rates for SH16 at the north residential areas scenario Time Westbound SH16 Eastbound SH16 Traffic PM 10 NO X CO VOC Traffic PM 10 NO X CO VOC count (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) count (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) 1: : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 77

86 Table 1.5. Hourly traffic volumes and composite vehicle fleet emission rates for SH16 at the north residential areas do minimum scenario Time Westbound SH16 Eastbound SH16 Traffic PM 10 NO X CO VOC Traffic PM 10 NO X CO VOC count (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) count (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) 1: : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 78

87 Table 1.6. Hourly traffic volumes and composite vehicle fleet emission rates for SH16 at the north residential areas with project scenario Time Westbound SH16 Eastbound SH16 Traffic PM 10 NO X CO VOC Traffic PM 10 NO X CO VOC count (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) count (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) 1: : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 79

88 Table 1.7. Hourly traffic volumes and composite vehicle fleet emission rates for SH16 near the Royal Road interchange scenario Time Westbound SH16 Eastbound SH16 Royal Road (adjacent school) Makora Road Traffic PM 10 NO X CO VOC Traffic PM 10 NO X CO VOC Traffic PM 10 NO X CO VOC Traffic PM 10 NO X CO VOC count (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) count (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) count (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) count (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) 1: : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 80

89 Table 1.8. Hourly traffic volumes and composite vehicle fleet emission rates for SH16 near the Royal Road interchange do minimum scenario Time Westbound SH16 Eastbound SH16 Royal Road (adjacent school) Makora Road Traffic PM 10 NO X CO VOC Traffic PM 10 NO X CO VOC Traffic PM 10 NO X CO VOC Traffic PM 10 NO X CO VOC count (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) count (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) count (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) count (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) 1: : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 81

90 Table 1.9. Hourly traffic volumes and composite vehicle fleet emission rates for SH16 near the Royal Road interchange with project scenario Time Westbound SH16 Eastbound SH16 Royal Road (adjacent school) Makora Road Traffic PM 10 NO X CO VOC Traffic PM 10 NO X CO VOC Traffic PM 10 NO X CO VOC Traffic PM 10 NO X CO VOC count (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) count (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) count (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) count (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) (g/km) 1: : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : : Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 82

91 Appendix 2 Sample AUSROADS Output Files

92

93 Sample South Residential Area Dispersion Model AUSROADS Output File 2026 VARIABLES AND OPTIONS SELECTED FOR THIS RUN Emission rate units: g/v-km Concentration units: micrograms/m3 Aerodynamic roughness: 0.40 (M) Aerodynamic roughness at wind vane site: 0.30 (M) Anemometer height: 10.0 (M) Read sigma theta values from the met file? No Use Pasquill Gifford for horizontal dispersion? Yes Sigma theta averaging periods: 60 (min.) Wind profile exponents set to: Irwin Urban Use hourly varying background concentrations? No Use constant background concentrations? Yes Constant background concentrations set to: 0.00E+00 micrograms/m3 External file for emission rates and traffic volumes? Yes LINK GEOMETRY LINK LINK COORDINATES (M) HEIGHT MIXING ZONE NAME TYPE X1 Y1 X2 Y2 (M) WIDTH (M) Z1 AG A1 AG A2 DP A3 AG B1 AG B2 AG C1 AG C2 AG Z1B AG A1B AG A2B DP A3B AG B1B AG B2B AG C1B AG C2B AG RECEPTOR LOCATIONS COORDINATES (M) COORDINATES (M) NAME No. X Y Z NAME No. X Y Z RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 85

94 RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP METEOROLOGICAL DATA Meteorological data entered via the input file: C:\workfiles\Beca\LincolnRd\indust\Lincoln.met Title of the meteorological data file is: CALMET Lincoln Rd. Surface roughness: 0.3m, Anemometer ht: 10m HOURLY VARIABLE EMISSION FACTOR INFORMATION Hourly varying traffic volumes and emission factors entered via the input file: C:\workfiles\Beca\royal\south\OP26PM.act Title of input hourly emission factor file is: PM option AVERAGE OVER ALL HOURS AND FOR ALL SOURCES in micrograms/m3 Concentrations at the discrete receptors (No. : Value): 1:1.32E+00 2:8.39E-01 3:5.87E-01 4:4.57E-01 5:3.15E-01 6:7.45E-01 7:4.53E-01 8:3.00E-01 9:2.22E-01 10:1.37E-01 11:1.37E+00 12:8.46E-01 13:5.94E-01 14:4.63E-01 15:3.21E-01 16:7.77E-01 17:4.65E-01 18:3.12E-01 19:2.33E-01 20:1.48E-01 21:1.34E+00 22:8.49E-01 23:6.02E-01 24:4.65E-01 25:3.25E-01 26:1.36E+00 27:8.61E-01 28:6.08E-01 29:4.69E-01 30:3.29E-01 31:1.34E+00 32:8.59E-01 33:5.87E-01 34:4.47E-01 35:3.02E-01 36:6.34E-01 37:4.01E-01 38:2.72E-01 39:2.08E-01 40:1.42E-01 41:6.64E-01 42:4.10E-01 43:2.85E-01 44:2.19E-01 45:1.49E-01 46:1.35E+00 47:8.68E-01 48:6.06E-01 49:4.71E-01 Peak values for the 100 worst cases - in micrograms/m3 AVERAGING TIME = 24 HOURS Rank Value Time Recorded Coordinates hour,date 1 ( , , 1.8) 2 ( , , 1.8) 3 ( , , 1.8) 4 ( , , 1.8) 5 ( , , 1.8) 6 ( , , 1.8) 7 ( , , 1.8) 8 ( , , 1.8) Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 86

95 9 ( , , 1.8) 10 ( , , 1.8) 11 ( , , 1.8) 12 ( , , 1.8) Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 87

96 Sample North Residential Area Dispersion Model AUSROADS Output File 2026 VARIABLES AND OPTIONS SELECTED FOR THIS RUN Emission rate units: g/v-km Concentration units: micrograms/m3 Aerodynamic roughness: 0.40 (M) Aerodynamic roughness at wind vane site: 0.30 (M) Anemometer height: 10.0 (M) Read sigma theta values from the met file? No Use Pasquill Gifford for horizontal dispersion? Yes Sigma theta averaging periods: 60 (min.) Wind profile exponents set to: Irwin Urban Use hourly varying background concentrations? No Use constant background concentrations? Yes Constant background concentrations set to: 0.00E+00 micrograms/m3 External file for emission rates and traffic volumes? Yes LINK GEOMETRY LINK LINK COORDINATES (M) HEIGHT MIXING ZONE NAME TYPE X1 Y1 X2 Y2 (M) WIDTH (M) A1 AG A1B AG RECEPTOR LOCATIONS COORDINATES (M) COORDINATES (M) NAME No. X Y Z NAME No. X Y Z RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP METEOROLOGICAL DATA Meteorological data entered via the input file: C:\workfiles\Beca\LincolnRd\indust\Lincoln.met Title of the meteorological data file is: CALMET Lincoln Rd. Surface roughness: 0.3m, Anemometer ht: 10m HOURLY VARIABLE EMISSION FACTOR INFORMATION Hourly varying traffic volumes and emission factors entered via the input file: C:\workfiles\Beca\royal\north\OPt26PM.act Title of input hourly emission factor file is: Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 88

97 PM Option AVERAGE OVER ALL HOURS AND FOR ALL SOURCES in micrograms/m3 Concentrations at the discrete receptors (No. : Value): 1:1.24E+00 2:1.08E+00 3:6.78E-01 4:4.78E-01 5:3.70E-01 6:2.55E-01 7:1.94E-01 8:6.97E-01 9:5.99E-01 10:3.61E-01 11:2.43E-01 12:1.81E-01 13:1.16E-01 14:8.25E-02 Peak values for the 100 worst cases - in micrograms/m3 AVERAGING TIME = 24 HOURS Rank Value Time Recorded Coordinates hour,date 1 ( , , 1.8) 2 ( , , 1.8) 3 ( , , 1.8) 4 ( , , 1.8) 5 ( , , 1.8) 6 ( , , 1.8) 7 ( , , 1.8) 8 ( , , 1.8) 9 ( , , 1.8) 10 ( , , 1.8) Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 89

98 Sample Royal Road Interchange Dispersion Model AUSROADS Output File DM 2026 interchange VARIABLES AND OPTIONS SELECTED FOR THIS RUN Emission rate units: g/v-km Concentration units: micrograms/m3 Aerodynamic roughness: 0.40 (M) Aerodynamic roughness at wind vane site: 0.30 (M) Anemometer height: 10.0 (M) Read sigma theta values from the met file? No Use Pasquill Gifford for horizontal dispersion? Yes Sigma theta averaging periods: 60 (min.) Wind profile exponents set to: Irwin Urban Use hourly varying background concentrations? No Use constant background concentrations? Yes Constant background concentrations set to: 0.00E+00 micrograms/m3 External file for emission rates and traffic volumes? Yes LINK GEOMETRY LINK LINK COORDINATES (M) HEIGHT MIXING ZONE NAME TYPE X1 Y1 X2 Y2 (M) WIDTH (M) A1 AG A2 DP A3 DP A4 DP A5 AG A1B AG A2B DP A3B DP A4B DP A5B AG RW1 AG RW2 AG RE1 AG RE2 BG RE3 AG RE4 AG MAR AG RECEPTOR LOCATIONS COORDINATES (M) COORDINATES (M) NAME No. X Y Z NAME No. X Y Z RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP RCP METEOROLOGICAL DATA Meteorological data entered via the input file: C:\workfiles\Beca\LincolnRd\indust\Lincoln.met Title of the meteorological data file is: CALMET Lincoln Rd. Surface roughness: 0.3m, Anemometer ht: 10m Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 90

99 HOURLY VARIABLE EMISSION FACTOR INFORMATION Hourly varying traffic volumes and emission factors entered via the input file: C:\workfiles\Beca\royal\interchange\DM26PM.act Title of input hourly emission factor file is: PM do mini AVERAGE OVER ALL HOURS AND FOR ALL SOURCES in micrograms/m3 Concentrations at the discrete receptors (No. : Value): 1:2.78E-01 2:3.51E-01 3:1.81E-01 4:5.54E-01 5:8.63E-01 6:9.17E-01 7:9.94E-01 Peak values for the 100 worst cases - in micrograms/m3 AVERAGING TIME = 24 HOURS Rank Value Time Recorded Coordinates hour,date 1 ( , , 1.8) 2 ( , , 1.8) 3 ( , , 1.8) 4 ( , , 1.8) 5 ( , , 1.8) 6 ( , , 1.8) 7 ( , , 1.8) 8 ( , , 1.8) 9 ( , , 1.8) 10 ( , , 1.8) 11 ( , , 1.8) 12 ( , , 1.8) Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 91

100

101 Appendix 3 Assessment of Nitrogen Dioxide

102

103 Assessment of Nitrogen Dioxide NO 2 passive sampling and the continuous monitoring data indicate that current NO 2 concentrations near SH16 are currently unlikely to exceed the AQNES and ARAQT air quality criteria level (see section 6 of this report). However, due to the reactivity of nitrogen oxides once released in the atmosphere, and the absence of any continuous monitoring data in the area, it is difficult to estimate precisely what actual NO 2 concentrations are likely to be in the vicinity of the motorway. Therefore, the assessment of potential NO 2 impacts has focused on estimating the effect that the different emission scenarios are likely to have on existing pollutant levels rather than trying to calculate the cumulative NO 2 concentration and assessing whether these changes are likely to results in any exceedance of the AQNES and ARAQT air quality criteria. Nitrogen oxides (NO x ) are usually emitted mainly in the form of nitric oxide (NO) but, once released into the atmosphere, variable proportions are oxidised to the more harmful nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ), predominantly by ozone (O 3 ). Typically only about 10% or less of the total nitrogen oxides released from a combustion source are in the form of NO 2. Air quality standards and guidelines are defined only for NO 2. Therefore, when assessing the potential impact of NO x emissions from SH16 it is important to consider the chemical processes that occur in the atmosphere. The most important short-term transformation is the reaction of NO in the emission plume with ambient ozone to form NO 2 : NO + O 3 NO 2 + O 2 Since the reaction is a 1-to-1 molecular transformation, the maximum possible concentration of NO 2 that can occur in the emission plume is directly related to the maximum ambient concentration of ozone. During the daytime, the main competing reaction in the short term is the photo-dissociation of NO 2 to form NO, which can decrease the concentrations of NO 2 to some degree. 3NO 2 + hν 3NO + O 3 Near an emission source, the formation of NO 2 is in general limited by the availability of NO in the emission plume to react with ambient ozone (reactant limited), or alternatively the availability of ambient ozone to react with NO (oxidant limited). At the highest recorded background ozone concentrations of 37 ppb (Gomez, 1996), up to 37 ppb of nitrogen dioxide (equivalent to 72 µg/m 3 ) could be formed in the emission plume by the oxidation of NO, if sufficient NO is present, in addition to the NO 2 in the plume originally released in the emissions. Therefore, there is effectively a limit to the maximum concentration of NO 2 that could actually occur near an emission source. Elevated levels of ozone can on occasion occur from photochemical smog formation processes. These episodes require significant emissions of both NO x and reactive organic compounds, usually from large city areas, under conditions where the dispersion of the polluted air mass is limited for periods of several hours combined with warm air temperatures and sunlight. These events are relatively infrequent in Auckland. Figure 3.1 shows the relationship of 1-hour average NO 2 and NO x concentration recorded at the ARC Penrose monitoring site for the year The limiting effect of ambient ozone on NO 2 concentrations is clearly evident when NO x concentrations exceed approximately µg/m 3. For NO x concentrations above 100 µg/m 3, NO 2 concentrations are shown to increase only gradually. This increase in NO 2 with NO x concentrations above 100 µg/m 3 is associated with NO 2 directly emitted from vehicle tail pipes; the slope of this increase correlates to the percentage of NO x Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 95

104 emitted as NO 2. A similar relationship between NO 2 and NO x is observed at the Takapuna monitoring station. Minoura and Ito (2009) estimated 7.3% of NO x vehicle emissions were emitted as NO 2, based on studies of Japanese roads. A UK study of ambient air quality estimated the percentage as varying between 8-14% (Abbot, 2005). From the average NO 2 to NO x slope observed in Figure 3.1 when NO x concentrations exceed 100 µg/m 3, the percentage of NO 2 emitted as NO X can be estimated to be approximately 5%, which is lower but comparable to these reported emission ratios. The lower ratio may be due to the older vehicle fleet and lower proportion of diesel vehicles in New Zealand fleet compared to Japan and UK. The potential impact that future traffic emissions may have on NO 2 levels has been estimated by comparing the predicted maximum 99.9 percentile 1-hour average NO x concentration for the 2006 base year with the predicted maximum 99.9 percentile 1-hour average NO x concentration for the 2026 emission scenarios. The differences in predicted NO x levels are then multiplied by the percentage of NO x emitted as NO 2 (5% in this instance) to estimate the potential change in maximum 99.9 percentile 1-hour averages. This approach assumes that the predicted maximum total 99.9 percentile 1-hour average NO x concentrations (background levels and the contribution from the motorway) for all of the modelled emission scenarios are above µg/m 3 and, therefore, increases in NO 2 are due primarily to NO 2 tail pipe emissions. These assumptions are appropriate for assessing potential changes in NO 2 concentrations that may cause exceedances of the AQNES 1-hour NO 2 standard of 200 µg/m 3, since during these hours NO x concentrations would also be in excess of 200 µg/m hour average NO 2 concentrations (mg/m 3 ) hour average NO X concentrations (mg/m 3 ) Figure 3.1. Relationship between 1-hour average NO 2 and NO x concentrations recorded at the Penrose (IIB) monitoring station in 2006 (monitoring data courtesy of the ARC) However, the method is less easily applied to estimating changes in maximum 24-hour average NO 2 concentrations, as NO x and ambient ozone concentrations can vary significantly throughout any 24-hour period and the formation of NO 2 may be both NO limited and ozone limited. Figure 3.2 Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 96

105 shows the relationship between recorded 24-hour average NO 2 and NO x concentrations at the ARC Penrose monitoring site for the year The dotted horizontal line corresponds to the maximum 24-hour NO 2 concentration of 54 µg/m 3 estimated from the passive monitoring data for areas surrounding the SH16 (refer to section 6.3.1) hour average NO 2 concentration (mg/m 3 ) Estimated maximum 24-hour NO2 concentration hour NO X concentration (mg/m 3 ) Figure 3.2. Relationship between 24-hour average NO 2 and NO x concentrations recorded at the Penrose (IIB) monitoring station in 2006 (monitoring data courtesy of the ARC) The figure shows a comparatively linear relationship between 24-hour average NO 2 and NO X concentrations when 24-hour NO 2 concentrations are higher than approximately µg/m 3, or when NO 2 concentration are 35-40% of the ARAQT of 100 µg/m 3. At these concentrations, 24-hour average NO 2 concentrations are shown increase only slowly with respected to increases in 24-hour average NO X concentrations. Simple regression models fitted to the 2006 Takapuna and Penrose monitoring data indicate that increases in 24-hour average NO 2 concentrations are approximately equal to 5 9% of the increase in the 24-hour NO X concentrations at NO 2 concentrations above 35 µg/m 3. The results suggest at these concentrations increase are predominantly associated with increase in NO 2 tail pipe emission rates. Therefore, in the assessment of 24-hour NO 2 concentrations it has been assumed that differences in maximum 24-hour average NO 2 concentrations between the 2006 emission scenario and the future 2026 emission scenarios are approximately equal to 5% of the predicted difference in maximum 24-hour average NO X. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 97

106

107 Appendix 4 Location Map

108

109 Location The Ultimate Map of New Zealand Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 101

110

111 Appendix 5 Description of the Previous Interchange Design

112

113 Description of the Previous Interchange Design Figure 5.1 shows the proposed development for which the dispersion model presented in the report was developed. It should be noted that the figure is oriented with North to the bottom right. The scope of this assessment is indicated in the figure by the two vertical lines crossing SH16 after Huruhuru Road and before the Hobsonville Road interchange. A general location map is attached at Appendix 4. From an air quality perspective the major difference in the designs is the change in the Westbound Off-Ramp. Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 105

114 Figure 5.1. The Proposed Widening of State Highway 16 near the Royal Road Interchange (Superseded) ( Aurecon/NZTA) Beca // 30 July 2010 // Page 106